#EuroMajdan # єvromaydan Chronicle 03/20/2014
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UPD: 03/20/2014 Putin's corridor. View from Moldova
Russia is building a complete analogue of the Danzig corridor, which it needs for successful transit of hydrocarbons - the foundation of the Russian economy, reports iPress
So, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on the adoption of Crimea into the Russian Federation. All the talk that Russia will surrender at the last moment, fearing sanctions and condemnation of the world community, remained the talk. However, this was expected from the very beginning.
Whether the other countries recognize or do not recognize the annexation of Crimea - in the current situation is no longer of great importance. Nothing but a concussion; the West is unable to resist Russia today. And while powerless talkers will denounce the Kremlin from international stands, the Russians will settle in the Crimea. In fact, this primarily means the restoration of Soviet military bases and the construction of new ones.
Let me remind you that Crimea during the USSR was not so much a resort as an unsinkable aircraft carrier that controls the Black Sea region. The bases of the Soviet Union formed, in fact, a second, underground peninsula capable of withstanding even a nuclear attack. Now Russia has got this infrastructure. Bringing it into working condition is a matter of one or two years, as a result of which Russia will have another defense line. This line will not be superfluous for the Kremlin if its conflict with the West enters sometime in the hot phase - and sooner or later it is likely to enter it.
Underground base of submarines in Balaclava. Photo: incrimea.com
But the hot phase, if any, will be much later. Today, surrender is taking place without a fight: both the West and Ukraine show utter confusion and powerlessness before the aggressor. Ukraine is unable to fight: the army in fact does not exist at all, and all the defensive lines in the east were dismantled by order of Yanukovych. In addition, the new Kiev authorities are concerned not so much with the fate of the country as with their own salvation and will make any agreements and any territorial concessions in order to sit still. The EU and the US do not intend to seriously intercede for Ukraine - this is already obvious. The formal sanctions they imposed against Russia will not have any real impact on Moscow.
Of course, in this whole story, a lot of historical analogies are immediately visible. The closest of them is an analogy with Austria and Czechoslovakia, with the events of 1934-38. Today, like eighty years ago, a new player has appeared in Europe, requiring the redeployment of the entire deck of political cards. The player is not so strong, but desperate, he has nothing to lose. Russia is in an extremely difficult, to say the least, catastrophic economic situation, it is actually squeezed into a corner and therefore plays all-in and, without any hesitation, will use its nuclear weapons as its last argument. However, Europe and the United States have something to lose. And therefore they, being, in principle, many times stronger, do not want to go into direct conflict, hoping to get rid of several pieces of meat thrown to a hungry predator. The role of pieces of meat fell to you and me - Ukraine and Moldova - just like eighty years ago it went to Czechoslovakia and Austria.
To understand what is happening today is very easy - just look at the map. Before our eyes, Russia is building a complete analogue of the Danzig corridor, which it needs for the successful transit of hydrocarbons - the foundation of the Russian economy. Currently, relying, inter alia, on the new bridgehead in the Crimea, Russia has begun to capture the South-East of Ukraine. All this is done to the accompaniment of Putin’s statements that Crimea is the limit of Russia's requirements and that Russia does not pretend to other parts of Ukraine. But I would not take these assurances seriously. At one time, Hitler also said that Austria was enough for him, then Sudeten, then Czechoslovakia, then Poland ...
So, look at the map. After the capture of the Lugansk, Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk regions - and this capture - the matter has already been practically settled, the business of the next one and a half to two months, the arc clearly appears on the map, passing through the Crimea and ending in Moldova and Odessa region. Here, Russia has excellent bridgeheads for deploying mobile forces: firstly, Transnistria, where Russian troops stand and there is an airfield capable of accepting all types of aircraft, and secondly, the Gagauz autonomy in the south of Moldova, where a referendum has recently been held for rapprochement with the Eurasian Union. By the way, the Gagauz people are a divided people. Two-thirds of the Gagauz people live in Moldova, and about a third-in Ukraine ... Do you catch what unlimited possibilities for protecting the violated rights of a small and divided people are opening up here before Russia?
And a few more touches.
The leadership of the unrecognized Transnistria has already consulted with Moscow and formally appealed to the Chairman of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin with a request to provide for the possibility of Transdniestria joining Russia in Russian legislation. The appeal came in the form of a review of the draft law on simplifying the procedure for accession of new territories to Russia. Let me remind you that the draft law envisages the admission to Russia of the territories of other states, in the absence of “effective legitimate authority”, on the basis of the results of a referendum or an appeal from their authorities, and Transnistria, de jure belonging to Moldova, and de facto not already controlled by it two decades fits this definition just perfectly. It is also clear that fitting Gagauzia under this law, plus the territories populated by the Gagauz people in the Odessa region, is a matter of technology and money, everything is decided in a couple of weeks.
Do not lose time in the capital of Gagauzia - Comrat. Here a decision has already been made to create a kind of "people's guard", which completely repeats the Crimean scenario. As for Moldova’s ability to repulse such actions with force, they are just as ephemeral as Ukraine’s capabilities. Especially taking into account the fact that the Russian help, possibly according to the scenario tested in Crimea, in the form of "green men" without insignia, can be transferred to the scene just in a few hours.
It is characteristic that Moldova, like Ukraine, does not have to rely on the help of its neighbors. Romanian President Traian Basescu has already announced his country's non-intervention in the event of Russia's annexation of part of Moldavian territory.
Of course, opposition to Russia's plans in our region is still possible - but the window of opportunity is very narrow. Purely theoretically, Ukraine and Moldova could jointly take control of the situation in Gagauzia and in the border regions of Odessa region. Could they take control of the situation in Transnistria - but, I repeat, only by coordinated actions. However, there will be no concerted action. Firstly, both Chisinau and Kiev do not trust each other and calculate their options, at the decisive moment their partner will hand over back, hand them over to Moscow - and get some set of bonuses for this. These fears, it must be said, are absolutely justified - both from Kiev and from Chisinau. In addition, in Kiev and Chisinau, power is very weak and incapable of decisive action, all its forces and resources are thrown at one thing - to sit, sit at any cost. And therefore, the actions of both Chisinau and Kiev were and will be powerless and half-hearted. Chisinau, suddenly, waking up, created a working group in parliament to consider problems related to the special status of the ATU Gagauzia - that is, it did what it was necessary to do twenty years ago - in normal order, two years ago - in the fire order, and now it is obviously late . The maximum that was enough for Kiev in the Transnistrian direction is to block the border with Moldova and Transnistria for men with Russian passports . However, this half-measure is not enough to take control of the situation in the region, especially considering the absolute cross-border ability for a physically prepared person. As for Moldova, it does not prevent the arrival of sports-looking men from 25 to 35 years old, who then depart in the direction of Transnistria. Moldova only distantly states this as a fact.
With such passivity of the authorities of both states, the scenario of events in the region is quite obvious. It is likely that the question of creating the “Putin corridor” will be resolved within a month, with a maximum of one and a half. Odessa region, Transnistria and Gagauzia will enter the western part of its arc. The popular approval of the annexation will be imitated according to the Crimean model.
Self defense in Kiev. Photo: AFP
As for Ukraine and Moldova, their governments are much more afraid of their own people than of all possible aggressors combined. This fact is especially clearly seen in the example of Ukraine, where the creation of an armed regional militia could at least partially stabilize the situation even today. In Moldova, the whole picture is the same - it’s just that the situation has not yet reached Ukrainian acuteness.
The fate of both countries seems quite predetermined: partition and annexation by neighbors ; against the background of complete unavailability - and, frankly speaking - of the complete reluctance of any international ones to assist them in maintaining independence. It is extremely unlikely that a resistance movement will appear in the annexed territories, at least in the short and medium term.
It is likely that Moscow will in one way or another push Bucharest to annex the right-bank part of Moldova minus Gagauzia, and Chisinau to non-resistance to this evil, which is lesser, from the point of view of the pro-European Chisinau elites, compared to the prospect of Russian occupation. A similar scenario will probably be realized between the remnants of Ukraine and Poland. The complicity of the two EU member states in the division of Moldova and Ukraine, even with the formal consent of the authorities of both states partially occupied by Russia, will allow Moscow to turn Bucharest and Warsaw into accomplices and its international lawyers, which at least partially legitimizes Russian territorial acquisitions.
Thus, if we talk about real forecasts, and not build castles in the air, hoping for the mythical help of the West, we have to admit that Russia has practically won this round. Moreover, if Moscow stops at these territorial acquisitions and does not go further to the West, but the Anschluss of the spring of 2014 will most likely get away with it. And they will, albeit through gritted teeth, albeit informally, but de facto recognized by the international community and secured for many decades, if not centuries.
As for the further development of events, I recommend that readers turn to the last chapter of Karel Chapek’s novel “The War with the Salamanders”: “The author talks to himself.” A more complete and accurate long-term forecast is hardly possible.
UPD: 03/20/2014 Zhirinovsky demands that Russia is not limited to Crimea: We do not need a border, we need to move on
LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky says Russia will not stop at the annexation of Crimea and should “move on.”
He said this before voting on documents on the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
“Here, the head of the committee says that the land border of Crimea (with Ukraine) is established forever. You are mistaken, on the contrary, we do not need this state border. We need to move on, do it “forever” early, ”Zhirinovsky said to the applause of the Russian deputies.
“Speaking forever, it means leaving millions of Russians in Donbass, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Odessa. They took a piece, and let those Russians die, ”he said.
UPD: 03/20/2014 The State Duma officially adopted Crimea and Sevastopol as part of the Russian Federation
The State Duma at an extraordinary meeting ratified the agreement signed on March 18, 2014 between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Crimea on the adoption of the Republic of Crimea in the Russian Federation.
According to the agreement, the Republic of Crimea is considered adopted in the Russian Federation from the date of signing the agreement. From this day on, new entities are being formed as part of the Russian Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of federal significance Sevastopol. The official languages of the Crimea are Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar.
The border of the Republic of Crimea on land, coupled with the territory of Ukraine, is the state border of the Russian Federation. Differentiation of the sea spaces of the Black and Azov Seas is based on international treaties of the Russian Federation, the norms and principles of international law.
From the day of the adoption of Crimea in the Russian Federation, citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing on this day in the territory of Crimea or Sevastopol are recognized as citizens of the Russian Federation, with the exception of persons who, within one month after this day, declare their desire to keep what they have and ( or) their minor children have different citizenship or remain stateless.
Until January 1, 2015, a transitional period is in force during which issues of integration of new constituent entities of the Russian Federation into the economic, financial, credit and legal systems of the Russian Federation, into the system of government bodies of the Russian Federation, as well as issues of the performance of military duties and military service in the Crimea are settled and Sevastopol.
Elections to the state authorities of two new constituencies are held on the second Sunday of September 2015. Until the election of the authorities of Crimea and Sevastopol, their powers are carried out by the State Council (Parliament) and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea, the Legislative Assembly of the city, respectively.
Legislative and other regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation are valid in the territories of Crimea and Sevastopol from the date of their adoption in the Russian Federation, unless otherwise provided by Russian law.
The regulatory legal acts of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, the Republic of Crimea and the city with special status of Sevastopol are valid until the end of the transition period or until the adoption of the relevant regulatory legal act of the Russian Federation and (or) the regulatory legal act of the Republic of Crimea, the city of federal significance of Sevastopol. Regulatory legal acts of the Crimea and Sevastopol, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, do not apply.
UPD: 03/20/2014 "Soldier's mother", "Donetsk activist" and "Refugee from Odessa" dyed her hair and played the role of "Crimean activist"
“Soldier's Mother”, “Donetsk Activist” and “Refugee from Odessa” dyed their hair and played the role of “Crimean Activist”.
That's how you are zombied
UPD: 03/20/2014 Laughter and sin
It is funny and sad at the same time.
UPD: 03/20/2014 Comments from people on Twitter
Comments from people on Twitter.
UPD: 03/20/2014 The journalist "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and spoke about the "atrocious atrocities of fascists from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident
The journalist "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and spoke about the "atrocious atrocities of the Nazis from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident.
UPD: 03/20/2014 Roshen factory in Russia is blocked by riot police. PHOTO
The entrance to the factory is blocked by a riot police truck and a police UAZ. This morning, on March 19, in Lipetsk (Russia), a police post was put up at the entrance to the Roshen confectionery factory owned by Petro Poroshenko in Lipetsk (Russia) - the entrance to the factory was blocked by an OMON truck and a police UAZ, LigaBusinessInform reports.
Workers are not allowed into the factory without explanation, and the factory office workers are gathered in the conference hall of the building. Police do not provide comments. Factory managers are not available either - their mobile phones are not responding.
A separate area of the Lipetsk Roshen in the village of Sentsovo was also blocked, where riot policemen, according to them, carry out force cover for operational activities. Entrance and exit from the Sentsovsk factory is free, but its territory is filled with people in uniform.
According to some reports, the factory is conducting an operation to identify illegal migrant workers. According to the workers, the police are represented by police officers in the Moscow region.
UPD: 03/20/2014 More than a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine IMPRESSIVE PHOTO
On Sunday, March 16, more than a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine.