#EuroMajdan # вромайдан Chronicle 03/20/2014
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Chronology of events
UPD: 03/20/2014 Putin's corridor. View from Moldova
Russia is building a complete analogue of the Danzig corridor, which it needs for the successful transit of hydrocarbons - the basis of the Russian economy, iPress reports
So, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on the admission of Crimea to the Russian Federation. All the talk that Russia will surrender at the last moment, fearing the sanctions and condemnation of the world community, has remained talk. However, it was expected from the very beginning.
Other countries recognize or do not recognize the annexation of the Crimea - in this situation it does not matter much. Nothing but a shaking of air, the West is unable to resist Russia today. And while powerless talkers will denounce the Kremlin from international tribunes, the Russians will settle in the Crimea. In fact, this means, first of all, the restoration of the Soviet military bases and the construction of new ones.
Let me remind you that the Crimea during the USSR was not so much a resort as an unsinkable aircraft carrier controlling the Black Sea region. The bases of the Soviet Union, formed, in fact, a second, underground peninsula, capable of withstanding even a nuclear attack. Now Russia has received this infrastructure. Bringing it into working condition is a matter of one or two years, as a result of which Russia will have another defense line. This milestone will not be superfluous for the Kremlin if its conflict with the West ever enters a hot phase - and sooner or later it will probably enter it.
Underground submarine base in Balaclava. Photo: incrimea.com
But the hot phase, if there will be, much later. Today there is a surrender without a fight: both the West and Ukraine demonstrate utter confusion and powerlessness against the aggressor. Ukraine is unable to fight: the army in fact does not exist at all, and all the defensive lines in the eastern direction were dismantled by order of Yanukovych. In addition, the new Kiev authorities are not so much concerned with the fate of the country, as with their own salvation and will go to any agreements and any territorial concessions, just to stay. The EU and the United States do not intend to seriously stand up for Ukraine - this is already obvious. Formal sanctions imposed by them against Russia will have no real impact on Moscow.
Of course, in this whole story, a lot of historical analogies are immediately visible. The closest of them is the analogy with Austria and Czechoslovakia, with the events of 1934-38. Today, like eighty years ago, a new player has appeared in Europe, demanding the retake of the entire deck of political cards. The player is not so strong, but desperate, he has nothing to lose. Russia is in an extremely difficult, if not to say disastrous, economic situation, it is actually locked in a corner and therefore plays all-in and, on occasion, will use without hesitation its nuclear weapons as the last argument. However, Europe and the United States have a lot to lose. And because they, being, in principle, many times stronger, do not want to go into direct conflict, hoping to get rid of several pieces of meat thrown by a hungry predator. The role of pieces of meat fell to you and I - Ukraine and Moldova - just as eighty years ago it went to Czechoslovakia and Austria.
To understand what is happening today is very easy - just by looking at the map. Before our eyes, Russia is building the full analogue of the Danzig corridor, which it needs for the successful transit of hydrocarbons - the foundation of the Russian economy. Currently, relying, including, on a new bridgehead in the Crimea, Russia has begun to seize the South-East of Ukraine. All this is being done to the accompaniment of Putin’s statements that the Crimea is the limit of Russia's demands and that Russia does not claim other parts of Ukraine. But I would not take these assurances seriously. At one time, Hitler also said that he had enough Austria, then the Sudetes, then Czechoslovakia, then Poland ...
So, look at the map. After the capture of the Luhansk, Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk regions - and this capture is already a practical matter, the work of the next one and a half to two months, an arc clearly appears through the map, passing through the Crimea and ending in Moldova and the Odessa region. Here Russia has excellent bases for deploying mobile forces: firstly, Transdniestria, where Russian troops are stationed and there is an airfield capable of receiving all types of aircraft, and, secondly, Gagauz autonomy in the south of Moldova, where a referendum recently took place for rapprochement with the Eurasian Union. By the way, the Gagauz are a divided people. Two-thirds of the Gagauz people live in Moldova and about a third in Ukraine ... Do you catch, what unlimited possibilities for the protection of the violated rights of small and divided people are open here for Russia?
And a few more strokes.
The leadership of the unrecognized Transdniestria has already consulted with Moscow and officially appealed to the State Duma Chairman Sergei Naryshkin with a request to provide for in Russian legislation the possibility of the incorporation of Transdniestria into Russia . The appeal was received in the form of a review of the draft law on the simplification of the procedure for the accession of new territories to Russia. Let me remind you that the bill provides for the admission to Russia of the territories of other states, in the absence of "effective legitimate authority" in them, based on the results of the referendum or the appeal of their authorities, and Transdniestria, which belongs to Moldova de jure, is not controlled by it two decades fit this definition just perfect. It is also clear that Gagauzia should be adjusted to this law, plus the territories inhabited by the Gagauz in the Odessa region are a matter of technology and money, everything is solved in a couple of weeks.
Do not waste time in the capital of Gagauzia - Comrat. It has already decided to create a kind of "people's guard", which completely repeats the Crimean scenario. As for Moldova’s ability to resist such actions by force, they are just as ephemeral as Ukraine’s capabilities. Especially in view of the fact that the Russian help — perhaps, according to the scenario tested in Crimea, in the form of “green men” without insignia — can be transferred to the scene of events in just a few hours.
It is characteristic that Moldova, like Ukraine, does not have to rely on the help of its neighbors. Romanian President Traian Basescu has already declared non-interference of his country in the event of Russia annexing part of Moldovan territory.
Of course, opposition to Russia's plans in our region is still possible - but the window of opportunity is very narrow. Theoretically, Ukraine and Moldova could jointly take control of the situation in Gagauzia and in the border areas of the Odessa region. Could they take control of the situation in Transnistria - but, I repeat, only by concerted actions. However, there will be no concerted action. First of all, both Chisinau and Kiev do not trust each other and will calculate the options at a crucial moment, give them back to Moscow - and receive a certain set of bonuses for this. These fears, I must say, are absolutely justified - both from Kiev and from Chisinau. In addition, both in Kiev and in Chisinau, the power is very weak and incapable of decisive action, all its forces and resources are thrown at one thing - to sit, to sit at any cost. And therefore the actions of both Chisinau and Kiev were and will be powerless and half-hearted. Chisinau, suddenly waking up, created in the parliament a working group to look at issues relating to the special status of the ATU Gagauzia - that is, did what it was necessary to do twenty years ago - in normal mode, two years ago - in fire order, and now it is already too late . The maximum that Kiev had enough in the Transnistrian direction is to block the border with Moldova and Transnistria for men with Russian passports . However, this half-measure is not enough to bring the situation in the region under control, especially given the absolute cross-border ability for the least physically prepared person. As for Moldova, it does not at all hinder the arrival at Chisinau airport of a sporty type of men from 25 to 35 years old, who then depart towards Transnistria. Moldova only detachedly states this as a fact.
With such passivity of the authorities of both states, the scenario of events in the region is quite obvious. Probably, the issue of creating the Putin corridor will be resolved within a month, a maximum of one and a half. The Odessa region, Transdniestria and Gagauzia will enter the western part of its arc. National approval of the annexation will be imitated according to the Crimean model.
Self-defense in Kiev. Photo: AFP
As for Ukraine and Moldova, their governments are much more afraid of their own people than of all possible aggressors combined. This fact is especially clearly seen in the example of Ukraine, where the creation of an armed regional militia could at least partially stabilize the situation even today. In Moldova, in general, the same picture - the situation has simply not reached the Ukrainian severity.
The fate of both countries looks quite predetermined: the division and annexation of neighbors ; against the backdrop of the complete unavailability - and, we will speak directly - of the complete unwillingness of any international to assist them in maintaining independence. The emergence of a resistance movement in the annexed territories, at least in the short and medium term, seems highly unlikely.
Probably, Moscow will push Bucharest in one way or another to annex the right bank of Moldova minus Gagauzia, and Chisinau - to resist this, as the worst in Chisinau’s pro-European elites, compared to the prospect of Russian occupation. A similar scenario will probably be implemented between the remnants of Ukraine and Poland. The complicity of the two EU member states in the division of Moldova and Ukraine, even if with the formal consent of the authorities of both states partially occupied by Russia, will allow Moscow to turn Bucharest and Warsaw into partners and its international lawyers, which at least partially legitimize Russian territorial acquisitions.
Thus, if we talk about real forecasts, and not to build castles in the air, hoping for the mythical help of the West, we have to say that Russia won this round. Moreover, if Moscow stops on these territorial acquisitions and does not go further to the West, but the Anschluss of spring 2014 will most likely get away with it. And they will, albeit through clenched teeth, albeit unofficially, but de facto recognized by the world community and fixed for many decades, if not for centuries.
As for further developments, I recommend that readers refer to the last chapter of Karel Čapek's novel War with Salamanders: "The author talks to himself." A more complete and accurate long-term forecast is hardly possible.
UPD: 03/20/2014 Zhirinovsky demands that Russia not be limited to the Crimea: We do not need a border, we must move on
LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky says that Russia will not stop at the annexation of the Crimea and must "move on."
He said this before voting documents on the annexation of the Crimea by Russia.
“Here the head of the committee says that the land border of Crimea (with Ukraine) is fixed forever. You are mistaken, on the contrary, we do not need this frontier. We need to move on, to do “forever” early, ”Zhirinovsky said to the applause of the Russian deputies.
“If to speak forever, it means to throw millions of Russians in the Donbas, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Odessa. They took a piece, and those Russians let them die, ”he said.
UPD: 20/03/2014 The State Duma officially adopted the Crimea and Sevastopol into the Russian Federation
The State Duma at an extraordinary meeting ratified the agreement signed on March 18, 2014 between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Crimea on the adoption of the Republic of Crimea in the Russian Federation.
According to the agreement, the Republic of Crimea is considered adopted in the Russian Federation from the date of signing the agreement. From this day on, new subjects are formed within the Russian Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of federal importance Sevastopol. The state languages of Crimea are Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean-Tatar.
The border of the Republic of Crimea on land, interfaced with the territory of Ukraine, is the state border of the Russian Federation. The delimitation of the maritime spaces of the Black and Azov Seas is carried out on the basis of international treaties of the Russian Federation, the norms and principles of international law.
From the date of the adoption of the Crimea in the Russian Federation, citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing on this day in the Crimea or Sevastopol are recognized as citizens of the Russian Federation, with the exception of individuals who within one month after that day declare their desire to retain what they have ( or) their minor children, other citizenship or to remain stateless.
Until January 1, 2015, there is a transitional period during which issues of integrating new subjects of the Russian Federation into the economic, financial, credit and legal systems of the Russian Federation, the system of state authorities of the Russian Federation, as well as issues of performing military service and military service in the Crimea are settled and Sevastopol.
Elections to the state authorities of the two new subjects are held on the second Sunday of September 2015. Before the election of the authorities of the Crimea and Sevastopol, their powers are exercised, respectively, by the State Council (Parliament) and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea, the Legislative Assembly of the city.
Legislative and other regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation are valid in the territories of Crimea and Sevastopol from the date of their adoption in the Russian Federation, unless otherwise provided by Russian legislation.
Regulatory legal acts of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, the Republic of Crimea and cities with a special status of Sevastopol are valid until the end of the transition period or until the adoption of the relevant regulatory legal act of the Russian Federation and (or) the regulatory legal act of the Republic of Crimea, a federal city of Sevastopol. Normative legal acts of the Crimea and Sevastopol, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, do not apply.
UPD: 20/03/2014 "Soldier's Mother", "Donetsk Activist" and "Refuge from Odessa" dyed her hair and played the role of "Crimean Activist"
"Soldier's Mother", "Donetsk Activist" and "Refuge from Odessa" dyed her hair and played the role of "Crimean activist".
So you and zombie
UPD: 03/20/2014 Laughter and sin
It is funny and sad at the same time.
UPD: 20/03/2014 People’s Twittering
Comments of people on Twitter.
UPD: 03/20/2014 The journalist "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and told about the "atrocious atrocities of the fascists from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident
The journal "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and spoke about the "monstrous atrocities of the fascists from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident.
UPD: 03/20/2014 Roshen factory in Russia is blocked by riot police. Photo report
Entrance to the factory is blocked by a riot policeman and a police UAZ. This morning, March 19, in Lipetsk (Russia), a police post was set up on Dovator Street at the entrance to the Roshen confectionery owned by Petro Poroshenko - the entrance to the factory was blocked by a riot policeman and a UAZ policeman, reports LigaBusinessInform.
Workers are not allowed into the factory without explanation, and the factory office workers are gathered in the conference hall of the building. The police does not provide comments. Factory managers are also not available - their mobile phones are not responding.
The isolated site of the Lipetsk Roshen in the village of Sentsovo is blocked, and here, according to them, riot policemen are carrying out force protection of operational activities. Entrance and exit from the Sentsov factory is free, but its territory is filled with people in uniform.
According to some information, an operation is underway in the factory to identify illegal migrant workers. How to tell the workers, the police are represented by employees of the Interior Ministry in the Moscow region.
UPD: 20/03/2014 Over a thousand people in Kherson are on their knees praying for peace and unity in Ukraine. IMPRESSIVE PHOTOS
On Sunday, March 16, over a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine.