#EuroMajdan # євромайдан Chronicle 03/20/2014
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Chronology of events
UPD: 20/03/2014 The Putin corridor. View from Moldova
Russia builds a complete analogue of the Danzig Corridor, which is necessary for the successful transit of hydrocarbons - the basis of the Russian economy, according to iPress
So, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on the adoption of the Crimea in the Russian Federation. All the talk about what Russia will at the last moment put back, fearing sanctions and condemnation of the world community, remained with the talk. However, this was expected from the very beginning.
Recognize, or do not recognize the other countries annexation of the Crimea - in the current situation of great importance no longer has. Nothing but a shock of air, the West is unable to resist Russia today. And while impotent talkers will denounce the Kremlin from international tribunes, Russians will settle in the Crimea. In fact, this means first of all the restoration of Soviet military bases and the construction of new ones.
Let me remind you that Crimea in the Soviet times was not so much a resort as an unsinkable aircraft carrier controlling the Black Sea region. Bases of the Soviet Union, formed, in fact, the second, an underground peninsula, capable of withstanding even a nuclear attack. Now this infrastructure has been received by Russia. Bringing it into working condition is a matter of one or two years, following which Russia will have another defense line. This line will not be superfluous for the Kremlin, if its conflict with the West enters one day in the hot phase - and sooner or later it is likely to enter it.
Underground submarine base in Balaklava. Photo: incrimea.com
But the hot phase, if it will be, much later. Today, there is a surrender without a fight: both the West and Ukraine demonstrate utter confusion and impotence before the aggressor. Ukraine can not fight: the army in fact does not exist at all, and all defensive lines in the eastern direction were dismantled by order of Yanukovych. In addition, the new Kiev authorities are concerned not so much with the fate of the country as with their own salvation and will go to any agreements and any territorial concessions, just to sit still. The EU and the US do not intend to seriously intercede for Ukraine - this is already obvious. Formal sanctions imposed by them against Russia, no real impact on Moscow will not be able to.
Of course, in the whole of this story at once one can see a lot of historical analogies. The closest one is an analogy with Austria and Czechoslovakia, with the events of 1934-38. Today, like eighty years ago, a new player has appeared in Europe, demanding the retake of the entire pack of political cards. The player is not that strong, but desperate, he has nothing to lose. Russia is in a very difficult situation, not to say - a catastrophic economic situation, it is actually squeezed into a corner and therefore plays all-in and will, without any hesitation, use its nuclear weapons as the last argument. At the same time, Europe and the United States have something to lose. And because they are, in principle, many times stronger, do not want to go to a direct conflict, hoping to get rid of several pieces of meat thrown to a hungry predator. The role of the pieces of meat fell to us - Ukraine and Moldova - just like eighty years ago it went to Czechoslovakia and Austria.
To understand what is happening today is very easy - just look at the map. Before our very eyes, Russia is building a complete analogue of the Danzig Corridor, which is necessary for the successful transit of hydrocarbons - the basis of the Russian economy. Currently, relying, including, and on a new bridgehead in the Crimea, Russia began seizing the South-East of Ukraine. All this is done to the accompaniment of Putin's statements that the Crimea is the limit of Russia's demands and that Russia does not pretend to other parts of Ukraine. But I would not take these assurances seriously. At one time, Hitler also said that he had enough of Austria, then Sudeten, then Czechoslovakia, then Poland ...
So, let's look at the map. After the seizure of Lugansk, Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk oblasts - and this seizure is already practically resolved, the business of the nearest one and a half or two months, the map clearly shows an arc passing through the Crimea and ending in Moldova and the Odessa region. Here, Russia has excellent bridgeheads for the deployment of mobile forces: firstly, Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed and there is an airfield capable of taking all types of aircraft, and secondly, the Gagauz autonomy in the south of Moldova, where the referendum was recently held for rapprochement with the Eurasian Union. By the way, the Gagauz are a divided people. Two-thirds of Gagauzians live in Moldova and about a third in Ukraine ... Do you see what unlimited possibilities for protecting the trampled rights of a small and divided people open up here in front of Russia?
And a few more touches.
The leadership of the unrecognized Transdniestria has already consulted with Moscow and formally appealed to the State Duma Chairman Sergei Naryshkin with a request to envisage in the Russian legislation the possibility of Transdniestria joining Russia . The appeal was received in the form of a review of the draft law on simplifying the procedure for the accession of new territories to Russia. Let me remind you that the draft law provides for the admission of territories of other states to Russia, if there is no "effective legitimate power" in them, based on the results of a referendum or the appeal of their authorities, while Transnistria, de jure owned by Moldova, and de facto not controlled by it For two decades, this definition is just perfect. It is also clear that Gagauzia, plus Gagauzian-populated territories in the Odessa region, is a matter of technology and money, everything is decided in a couple of weeks.
Do not lose time and in the capital of Gagauzia - Comrat. Here, a decision has already been made to create a kind of "people's guard", which completely repeats the Crimean scenario. As for Moldova's ability to give a power response to such actions, they are as ephemeral as the possibilities of Ukraine. Especially in view of the fact that Russian assistance - perhaps, in the script approved in the Crimea, in the form of "green men" without insignia, can be transferred to the scene of events in just a few hours.
It is characteristic that Moldova, like Ukraine, does not have to count on the help of its neighbors. Romanian President Traian Basescu has already announced his country's non-interference in case of Russia's annexation of part of the Moldovan territory.
Of course, opposition to Russia's plans in our region is still possible - but the window of opportunity is very narrow. Theoretically, Ukraine and Moldova could jointly take control of the situation in Gagauzia and in the border areas of the Odessa region. Could they take control of the situation in Transnistria - but, I repeat, only by concerted actions. However, there will be no concerted action. First, both Chisinau and Kiev do not trust each other and calculate the options their partner at a decisive moment will pass back, hand them over to Moscow - and get a set of bonuses for it. These concerns, I must say, are absolutely justified - both from Kiev and from Chisinau. In addition, both in Kiev and in Chisinau, the authorities are very weak and incapable of taking decisive action, all its forces and resources are thrown on one thing - to sit and sit at any cost. And so the actions of both Chisinau and Kiev were and will be powerless and half-hearted. Chisinau, having suddenly woken up, created a working group in the parliament to consider problems related to the special status of ATU Gagauzia - that is, did what had to be done 20 years ago - in a normal chunk, two years ago - in a fire order, and now it is already too late . The maximum that Kiev had on the Transnistrian direction was enough to block the border with Moldova and Transnistria for men with Russian passports . However, this half-hearted measure is not enough to take the situation in the region under control, especially considering the absolute border crossing for a slightly physically prepared person. As for Moldova, it absolutely does not prevent the arrival of a sporty kind of men from 25 to 35 years old, who then depart for Transnistria. Moldova only detachedly states this as a fact.
With such passivity of the authorities of both states, the scenario of events in the region is quite obvious. Probably, the issue of creating the "Putin Corridor" will be resolved within a month, a maximum - one and a half. The western part of its arc will include the Odessa region, Transnistria and Gagauzia. The popular endorsement of annexation will be imitated according to the Crimean model.
Self-defense in Kiev. Photo: AFP
As for Ukraine and Moldova, their governments are much more afraid of their own people than of all possible aggressors put together. This fact is especially clear in the example of Ukraine, where the creation of an armed regional militia could at least partly stabilize the situation even today. In Moldova as a whole the same picture - simply the situation has not yet reached the Ukrainian acuteness.
The fate of both countries looks quite predetermined: partition and annexation by neighbors ; against the backdrop of complete unpreparedness-and, frankly speaking, the complete reluctance of any international to assist them in preserving their independence. It is extremely unlikely that the emergence of a resistance movement in the annexed territories, at least in the near and medium term.
Probably Moscow in one way or another will push Bucharest to annexation of the right-bank part of Moldova after Gagauzia, and Chisinau - to not resist this, as less from the point of view of pro-European Chisinau elites, evil - in comparison with the prospect of Russian occupation. A similar scenario will probably be realized between the remnants of Ukraine and Poland. The participation of the two EU member states in the division of Moldova and Ukraine, even with the formal consent of the authorities of both countries partially occupied by Russia, will allow Moscow to turn Bucharest and Warsaw into accomplices and its international lawyers, which at least partially legitimizes Russian territorial acquisitions.
Thus, if we talk about realistic forecasts, and not build castles in the air, hoping for the mythical help of the West, we have to state that this round was practically won by Russia. Moreover, if Moscow stops at these territorial acquisitions and does not go further to the West, but the Anschlusses of the spring of 2014 are likely to get away with it. And they will, albeit through their teeth, albeit unofficially, but de facto recognized by the world community and fixed for many decades, if not for centuries.
As for the further development of events, I recommend readers to turn to the last chapter of Karel Capek's novel "The War with the Newts": "The author talks to himself." A more complete and accurate long-term forecast is hardly possible.
UPD: 20/03/2014 Zhirinovsky demands that Russia not be limited to the Crimea: We do not need a border, we need to move on
The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky states that Russia will not stop at the annexation of the Crimea and must "move on".
He said this before the vote on documents on the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
"Here the head of the committee says that the land border of the Crimea (with Ukraine) is fixed forever. You are mistaken, on the contrary, we do not need this state border. We need to move on, do "forever" early, "Zhirinovsky said, applauding the Russian deputies.
"If we talk for good, it means giving up millions of Russians in the Donbas, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Odessa. A piece was taken, and those Russians are going to die, "he said.
UPD: 20/03/2014 The State Duma officially took the Crimea and Sevastopol as part of the Russian Federation
The State Duma at an extraordinary meeting ratified the agreement signed on March 18, 2014 between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Crimea on the admission of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation.
According to the agreement, the Republic of Crimea is considered to be accepted in the Russian Federation from the date of signing the contract. From this day on, new subjects are being formed within the Russian Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of federal significance Sevastopol. The state languages of Crimea are Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean-Tatar.
The border of the Republic of Crimea on land, coupled with the territory of Ukraine, is the state border of the Russian Federation. The delimitation of maritime areas of the Black and Azov Seas is carried out on the basis of international treaties of the Russian Federation, norms and principles of international law.
Since the adoption of the Crimea in the Russian Federation, citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing on that day in the territory of Crimea or Sevastopol are recognized as citizens of the Russian Federation, with the exception of persons who within one month after that day declare their desire to preserve the available from them and ( or their minor children, other citizenship or remain stateless.
Until January 1, 2015, there is a transitional period, during which the issues of integration of new subjects of the Russian Federation into the economic, financial, credit and legal systems of the Russian Federation, the system of state authorities of the Russian Federation, as well as issues of fulfilling military duty and military service in the territories of the Crimea and Sevastopol.
Elections to the bodies of state power of two new entities are held on the second Sunday of September 2015. Prior to the election of the authorities of the Crimea and Sevastopol, their powers are exercised respectively by the State Council (Parliament) and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea, the Legislative Assembly of the city.
Legislative and other normative legal acts of the Russian Federation operate in the territories of the Crimea and Sevastopol from the date of their adoption in the Russian Federation, unless otherwise provided by Russian law.
Normative legal acts of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the cities of Sevastopol, the Republic of Crimea and cities with a special status of Sevastopol are valid until the end of the transition period or until the adoption of the relevant normative legal act of the Russian Federation and (or) the normative legal act of the Republic of Crimea, a city of federal significance in Sevastopol. Normative legal acts of the Crimea and Sevastopol, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, are not applied.
UPD: 20/03/2014 "Soldier's mother", "Donetsk activist" and "Beshenka from Odessa" dyed hair and played the role of "Crimean activist"
"Soldier's mother", "Donetsk activist" and "Beshenka from Odessa" repainted her hair and played the role of "Crimean activist".
That's how you are zombified
UPD: 03/20/2014 Laughter and Sin
It is funny and sad at the same time.
UPD: 20/03/2014 Comments of people on Twitter
Comments of people on Twitter.
UPD: 20/03/2014 The journalist of "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and told about "monstrous atrocities of fascists from the Right sector" 2 hours before the incident
The journalist of "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and told about "monstrous atrocities of fascists from the Right sector" 2 hours before the incident.
UPD: 20/03/2014 Factory Roshen in Russia is blocked by OMON. PHOTO reportage
The entrance to the factory is blocked by a riot police truck and a police UAZ. This morning, March 19, in Lipetsk (Russia) on Dovator Street at the entrance to the confectionery factory Roshen, owned by Petro Poroshenko, a police post was put up - the entrance to the factory was blocked by a riot policeman and a police UAZ, LigaBusinessInform informs.
Workers on the territory of the factory are not allowed without an explanation of the reasons, and office employees of the factory are assembled in the conference hall of the building. The police do not provide comments. Factory managers are not available either - their mobile phones are not responding.
Blocked and a separate site of the Lipetsk Roshen in the village of Sentsovo, here the riot police officers, they said, conduct a cover for operational activities. The entrance and exit from Sentsovo factory is free, but its territory is filled with people in uniform.
According to some reports, an operation is being carried out at the factory to identify illegal migrant workers. As the workers say, the police are represented by the officers of the Moscow Department of the Interior for Moscow region.
UPD: 20/03/2014 More than a thousand people in Kherson pray on their knees for peace and unity in Ukraine IMPRESSIVE PHOTOS
On Sunday, March 16, more than a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine.