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#EuroMajdan # євромайдан Chronicle 03/20/2014

Chronology of events

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UPD: 20/03/2014 Путинский коридор. Взгляд из Молдовы

Путинский коридор. Взгляд из Молдовы

Россия выстраивает полный аналог Данцигского коридора, необходимый ей для успешного транзита углеводородов - основы российской экономики, сообщает iPress

Итак, президент России Владимир Путин подписал соглашение о принятии Крыма в состав Российской Федерации. Все разговоры о том, что Россия в последний момент сдаст назад, убоявшись санкций и осуждения мирового сообщества, разговорами и остались. Впрочем, это было ожидаемо с самого начала.

Признают, или не признают другие страны аннексию Крыма - в сложившейся ситуации большого значения уже не имеет. Ничего, кроме сотрясения воздуха, Запад противостоять России сегодня неспособен. И пока бессильные болтуны будут обличать Кремль с международных трибун, россияне будут обустраиваться в Крыму. По факту это означает в первую очередь восстановление советских военных баз и постройку новых.

Напомню, что Крым во времена СССР был не столько курортом, сколько непотопляемым авианосцем, контролирующим черноморский регион. Базы Советского Союза, образовали, по сути, второй, подземный полуостров, способный выдержать даже ядерную атаку. Сейчас эту инфраструктуру получила Россия. Приведение её в рабочее состояние - дело одного-двух лет, по итогам которых у России появится ещё один рубеж обороны. Это рубеж будет очень не лишним для Кремля, если его конфликт с Западом войдет когда-нибудь в горячую фазу - а рано или поздно он в неё, вероятно, войдет.

Путинский коридор. Взгляд из Молдовы
Подземная база подводных лодок в Балаклаве. Фото:

Но горячая фаза если и будет, то много позже. Сегодня идет сдача без боя: и Запад и Украина демонстрирует полнейшую растерянность и бессилие перед агрессором. Украина воевать неспособна: армия по факту не существует вовсе, а все оборонительные рубежи на восточном направлении были демонтированы по распоряжению Януковича. Кроме того, новая киевская власть озабочена не столько судьбой страны, сколько собственным спасением и пойдет на любые соглашения и любые территориальные уступки, лишь бы усидеть. ЕС и США всерьез вступаться за Украину не намерены - это уже очевидно. Формальные санкции, введенные ими против России, никакого реального воздействия оказать на Москву не смогут.

Разумеется, во всей этой истории сразу видна масса исторических аналогий. Ближайшая из них - аналогия с Австрией и Чехословакией, с событиями 1934-38 годов. Сегодня, как и восемьдесят лет назад, в Европе появился новый игрок, требующий пересдачи всей колоды политических карт. Игрок не то чтобы такой уж сильный, но отчаянный, ему нечего терять. Россия находится в крайне сложном, чтобы не сказать - катастрофическом экономическом положении, она фактически зажата в угол и потому играет ва-банк и при случае без колебаний применит имеющееся у него ядерное оружие в качестве последнего аргумента. Вместе с тем, Европе и Соединенным Штатам есть что терять. И потому они, будучи, в принципе, в разы сильнее, не хотят идти на прямой конфликт, рассчитывая отделаться несколькими кусками мяса, брошенными голодному хищнику. Роль же кусков мяса выпала нам с вами - Украине и Молдове - точно так же, как восемьдесят лет назад она досталась Чехословакии и Австрии.

Понять, что происходит сегодня очень легко - достаточно взглянув на карту. На наших глазах Россия выстраивает полный аналог Данцигского коридора, необходимый ей для успешного транзита углеводородов - основы российской экономики. В настоящее время, опираясь, в том числе, и на новый плацдарм в Крыму, Россия начала захват Юго-Востока Украины. Все это делается под аккомпанемент заявлений Путина о том, что Крым - предел требований России и что на другие части Украины Россия не претендует. Но я бы не стал относиться к этим заверениям всерьез. В свое время Гитлер тоже говорил о том, что ему достаточно Австрии, потом Судет, потом Чехословакии, потом Польши…

Так вот, посмотрим на карту. После захвата Луганской, Донецкой и Днепропетровской областей - а этот захват - дело уже, практически, решенное, дело ближайших полутора-двух месяцев, на карте явно вырисовывается дуга, проходящая через Крым и оканчивающаяся в Молдове и Одесской области. Здесь у России есть превосходные плацдармы для развертывания мобильных сил: это, во-первых, Приднестровье, в котором стоят российские войска и есть аэродром, способный принимать все типы самолетов, и, во-вторых, Гагаузская автономия на юге Молдовы, где недавно прошел референдум за сближение с Евразийским союзом. Кстати, гагаузы - разделенный народ. Две трети гагаузов живут в Молдове а примерно треть - в Украине… Улавливаете, какие безграничные возможности для защиты попранных прав малого и разделенного народа открываются здесь перед Россией?

Путинский коридор. Взгляд из Молдовы

И ещё несколько штрихов.

The leadership of the unrecognized Transdniestria has already consulted with Moscow and officially appealed to the State Duma Chairman Sergei Naryshkin with a request to provide for in Russian legislation the possibility of the incorporation of Transdniestria into Russia . The appeal was received in the form of a review of the draft law on the simplification of the procedure for the accession of new territories to Russia. Let me remind you that the bill provides for the admission to Russia of the territories of other states, in the absence of "effective legitimate authority" in them, based on the results of the referendum or the conversion of their authorities, and Transdniestria, which belongs to Moldova de jure, is not controlled by it two decades fit this definition just perfect. It is also clear that Gagauzia should be adjusted to this law, plus the territories inhabited by the Gagauz in the Odessa region are a matter of technology and money, everything is solved in a couple of weeks.

Do not waste time in the capital of Gagauzia - Comrat. It has already decided to create a kind of "people's guard", which completely repeats the Crimean scenario. As for Moldova’s ability to resist such actions by force, they are just as ephemeral as Ukraine’s capabilities. Especially in view of the fact that the Russian help, possibly according to the scenario tested in Crimea, in the form of "green men" without insignia, can be transferred to the scene of events in just a few hours.

It is characteristic that Moldova, like Ukraine, does not have to rely on the help of its neighbors. Romanian President Traian Basescu has already declared non-interference of his country in the event of Russia annexing part of Moldovan territory.

Of course, opposition to Russia's plans in our region is still possible - but the window of opportunity is very narrow. Theoretically, Ukraine and Moldova could jointly take control of the situation in Gagauzia and in the border areas of the Odessa region. Could they take control of the situation in Transnistria - but, I repeat, only by concerted actions. However, there will be no concerted action. First of all, both Chisinau and Kiev do not trust each other and will calculate the options at a crucial moment, give them back to Moscow - and receive a certain set of bonuses for this. These fears, I must say, are absolutely justified - both by Kiev and by Chisinau. In addition, both in Kiev and in Chisinau, the power is very weak and incapable of decisive actions, all its forces and resources are thrown at one thing - to sit, to sit at any cost. And because the actions of both Chisinau and Kiev were and will be powerless and half-hearted. Chisinau, suddenly waking up, created in the parliament a working group to look at issues relating to the special status of the ATU Gagauzia — that is, did what it was necessary to do twenty years ago — in normal order, two years ago — in fire order, and now it is certainly too late . The maximum that Kiev had enough in the Transnistrian direction is to block the border with Moldova and Transnistria for men with Russian passports . However, this half-measure is not enough to bring the situation in the region under control, especially given the absolute cross-border ability for the least physically prepared person. As for Moldova, it does not at all impede the arrival at Chisinau airport of a sporty type of men from 25 to 35 years old, who then depart towards Transnistria. Moldova only detachedly states this as a fact.

With such passivity of the authorities of both states, the scenario of events in the region is quite obvious. Probably, the issue of creating the Putin corridor will be resolved within a month, a maximum of one and a half. The Odessa region, Transdniestria and Gagauzia will enter the western part of its arc. National approval of the annexation will be imitated according to the Crimean model.

Путинский коридор. Взгляд из Молдовы
Self-defense in Kiev. Photo: AFP

As for Ukraine and Moldova, their governments are much more afraid of their own people than of all possible aggressors combined. This fact is especially clearly seen in the example of Ukraine, where the creation of an armed regional militia could at least partially stabilize the situation even today. In Moldova, in general, the same picture - the situation is simply not yet reached the Ukrainian severity.

The fate of both countries looks quite predetermined: the division and annexation of neighbors ; against the backdrop of the complete lack of readiness - and, we will speak directly - of the complete unwillingness of any international to assist them in maintaining independence. The emergence of a resistance movement in the annexed territories, at least in the short and medium term, seems highly unlikely.

Probably, Moscow will push Bucharest in one way or another to annex the right bank of Moldova minus Gagauzia, and Chisinau to non-resistance to this evil, as seen from the pro-European Chisinau elites, compared to the prospect of Russian occupation. A similar scenario will probably be implemented between the remnants of Ukraine and Poland. The complicity of the two EU member states in the division of Moldova and Ukraine, even if with the formal consent of the authorities of both countries partially occupied by Russia, will allow Moscow to turn Bucharest and Warsaw into partners and its international lawyers, which at least partly legitimize Russian territorial acquisitions.

Thus, if we talk about real forecasts, and not to build castles in the air, hoping for the mythical help of the West, we have to say that Russia won this round. Moreover, if Moscow stops on these territorial acquisitions and does not go further to the West, but the Anschluss of spring 2014 will most likely get away with it. And they will, albeit through clenched teeth, albeit unofficially, but de facto recognized by the world community and fixed for many decades, if not for centuries.

As for further developments, I recommend that readers refer to the last chapter of Karel Čapek’s novel War with Salamanders: "The author talks to himself." A more complete and accurate long-term forecast is hardly possible.

UPD: 03/20/2014 Zhirinovsky demands that Russia not be limited to the Crimea: We do not need a border, we must move on

Жириновский требует, чтобы Россия не ограничивалась Крымом: Нам не нужна граница, надо двигаться дальше

LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky says that Russia will not stop at the annexation of the Crimea and must "move on."

He said this before voting documents on the annexation of the Crimea by Russia.

“Here the head of the committee says that the land border of Crimea (with Ukraine) is fixed forever. You are mistaken, on the contrary, we do not need this frontier. We need to move on, do “forever” early, ”said Zhirinovsky to the applause of the Russian deputies.

“If to speak forever, it means to throw millions of Russians in the Donbas, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Odessa. They took a piece, and those Russians let them die, ”he said.

UPD: 03/20/2014 The State Duma officially adopted the Crimea and Sevastopol into the Russian Federation

Госдума официально приняла Крым и Севастополь в состав РФ

The State Duma at an extraordinary meeting ratified the agreement signed on March 18, 2014 between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Crimea on the adoption of the Republic of Crimea in the Russian Federation.

According to the agreement, the Republic of Crimea is considered adopted in the Russian Federation from the date of signing the agreement. From this day on, new subjects are formed within the Russian Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the city of federal significance Sevastopol. The state languages ​​of Crimea are Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean-Tatar.

The border of the Republic of Crimea on land, interfaced with the territory of Ukraine, is the state border of the Russian Federation. The delimitation of the maritime spaces of the Black and Azov Seas is carried out on the basis of international treaties of the Russian Federation, the norms and principles of international law.

From the day Crimea was adopted in the Russian Federation, citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing on this day in Crimea or Sevastopol are recognized as citizens of the Russian Federation, with the exception of individuals who within one month after this day declare their desire to retain what they have and ( or) their minor children, other citizenship or to remain stateless.

Until January 1, 2015, there is a transition period during which issues of integrating new constituent entities of the Russian Federation into the economic, financial, credit and legal systems of the Russian Federation, the system of state authorities of the Russian Federation, as well as the performance of military service and military service in the Crimea are settled. and Sevastopol.

Elections to the state authorities of two new subjects are held on the second Sunday of September 2015. Before the election of the authorities of the Crimea and Sevastopol, their powers are exercised by the State Council (Parliament) and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea, respectively, by the Legislative Assembly of the city.

Legislative and other regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation are valid in the territories of Crimea and Sevastopol from the date of their adoption in the Russian Federation, unless otherwise provided by Russian legislation.

Regulatory legal acts of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, the Republic of Crimea and cities with a special status of Sevastopol are valid until the end of the transition period or until the adoption of the relevant regulatory legal act of the Russian Federation and (or) the regulatory legal act of the Republic of Crimea, a federal city of Sevastopol. Normative legal acts of the Crimea and Sevastopol, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, do not apply.

UPD: 03/20/2014 "Soldier's Mother", "Donetsk Activist" and "Refuge from Odessa" repainted her hair and played the role of "Crimean Activist"

“Soldier’s Mother”, “Donetsk Activist” and “Refuge from Odessa” dyed her hair and played the role of “Crimean Activist”.

That's how you and zombie :(

UPD: 03/20/2014 Laughter and sin

Смех и грех
Смех и грех
Смех и грех

It is funny and sad at the same time.

UPD: 20/03/2014 People’s Twittering

Комментарии в Twitter
Комментарии в Twitter
Комментарии в Twitter

Comments of people on Twitter.

UPD: 03/20/2014 The journalist "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and told about the "monstrous atrocities of the fascists from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident

Журналист Life news забыл учесть разницу во времени и рассказал о чудовищных злодеяниях фашистов из Правого сектора за 2 часа до самого инцидента.

The journal "Life news" forgot to take into account the time difference and spoke about the "monstrous atrocities of the fascists from the Right Sector" 2 hours before the incident.

UPD: 03/20/2014 Roshen factory in Russia is blocked by riot police. PHOTO report

Roshen factory in Russia blocked by riot police Roshen factory in Russia blocked by riot police
Roshen factory in Russia blocked by riot police Roshen factory in Russia blocked by riot police
Roshen factory in Russia blocked by riot police

The entrance to the factory was blocked by a riot policeman and a police UAZ. This morning, March 19, in Lipetsk (Russia), a police post was set up on Dovator Street at the entrance to the Roshen confectionery owned by Petro Poroshenko - the entrance to the factory was blocked by a riot policeman and a UAZ policeman, reports LigaBusinessInform.

Workers are not allowed into the factory without explanation, and factory office workers are gathered in the conference hall of the building. The police does not provide comments. Factory managers are also not available - their mobile phones are not responding.

The isolated site of the Lipetsk Roshen in the village of Sentsovo is also blocked, according to their words, riot policemen are carrying out force protection of operational activities. Entrance and exit from the Sentsov factory is free, but its territory is filled with people in uniform.

According to some information, an operation is underway at the factory to identify illegal migrant workers. How to tell the workers, the police are represented by employees of the Interior Ministry in the Moscow region.

UPD: 20/03/2014 Over a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine IMPRESSIVE PHOTOS

On Sunday, March 16, over a thousand people in Kherson on their knees pray for peace and unity in Ukraine.