#EuroMajdan # євромайдан Chronicle 07/04/2014
UPD: 07/04/2014 Putin’s strategic miscalculation: Russia in ticks between the USA and China
Vladimir Putin made a blatant strategic miscalculation, breaking the book of the rules of international relations and not asking China’s consent. Any hope of recruiting Beijing as an ally to help dull the pain of Western sanctions is doomed to failure — and with it the Kremlin’s chances of a painless victory and victory in general.
Mr Putin, in his victorious speech in the Crimea, hurried to thank the Chinese political bureau for the alleged support. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with his characteristic elasticity, reported on the “concurring assessments of Russia and China on the situation in Ukraine.”
This, of course, is a desperate lie. China did not stand behind Russia during the vote on the Crimea in the Security Council, as was the case with Syria. He pointedly abstained. His Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that "China always adheres to the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of any state and respects the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."
We do not know exactly what Xi Jinping said during his meeting with President Obama in The Hague, but what he said has nothing to do with the crazy assessments of the Kremlin. US Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes admired the course of these negotiations, and after them argued that Russia could no longer rely on a “traditional ally”.
If this is the case, then Mr. Putin was swindled. He will not be able to avoid financial strangulation with American financial muscles — and if he sends soldiers to Eastern Ukraine, and if he simply confines himself to inflating chaos there, with the help of Russian agents provocateurs.
He does not have hopes that it will be possible to mix all the maps of the West, creating with China a Eurasian bloc - a league of authoritarian regimes that controls vast reserves of natural resources. A similar outcome is the obsession of the “spepleglerites”, self-haters of the West, who are confident that America is over and that the dollar will be replaced by a Eurasian gold ducat.
The reality is that China is constantly and tirelessly destroying Russia's monopoly on control over gas reserves in Central Asia. Turkmen gas has always gone to the north, and has been hostage to Gazprom’s pricing policy. Now he is going east. President C personally appeared in September 2013 at the opening of the 1,800-km gas pipeline to China from the Galkanish field, the second largest in the world (26 trillion cubic meters).
The pipeline will supply up to 62 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This is half of what Gazprom supplies to Europe. The same thing happens in Kazakhstan, where Chinese companies have established control over most of the energy industry. What is happening is described in a series of diplomatic telegrams from Central Asia published by Wikileaks. A British diplomat in 2010 reports that Russians “with pain” are watching their energy dominance in Central Asia evaporate.
Even more opens the eyes to what is happening telegram, which cites the ambassador of China in Kazakhstan, Jen Guoping. He warns that China and Russia are heading towards a clash, and the side that concedes is not China. The ambassador said: “In the future, relations between the great powers in Central Asia will be delicate and complex. New oil and gas pipelines are destroying the Russian monopoly on energy exports. ”
Mr. Jen not only positively assessed the American role in the region, but also expressed the opinion that NATO should participate as an observer at the talks of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - the alleged Russian-Chinese response to the EU / NATO axis - with the goal of “breaking the Russian monopoly in region. "
Axis- USSR / China - was one of the favorite scarecrows in the 60s. Henry Kissinger, however, saw that two hostile cultures were knives all over their borders. As Akihero Ivacita aptly put it in 2006, “Four thousand kilometers of problems.”
George Walden paraded the deep roots of this mutual distrust in his little book China: A Wolf in the World? He worked as a diplomat in both Russia and China. He was one of the very few Westerners who lived in China during the cultural revolution. He closely watched how deeply the two branches of the Marxist Brothers hated each other. And indeed, they have reached the brink of nuclear war. Both the CIA and the State Department were stunned by his report. They had no sources on the ground during the Mao era.
Walden says that the Chinese will never forgive the Russians for seizing Eastern Siberia, even with the king. For them, it is “lost territory”. They want to return property, and in this they are supported by the ethnic relocation for the Amur, very much like the Mexican immigration reconquest of California and Texas.
For 20 years, the population of Eastern Siberia has decreased from 8 million to 6.3 million people, and behind these figures are ghost cities along the Trans-Siberian Railway. Russia could not take advantage of its eastern event. With a birth rate of 1.4, chronic alcoholism, and an expected population reduction of 30 million, according to forecasts, by 2050 no more than 110 million people will live in Russia (according to UN statistics, not Putin’s demographers), the nation will inevitably fall back to the European bastion Old Moscow. The question is how fast and how peaceful.
China expert Jonathan Fenby says that in the Chinese National Security Council there is a faction that intended to support Putin in Ukraine, hoping in return to squeeze out more favorable terms of gas, food and mineral supplies. But these voices were drowned out by Xi Jinping. He plays on a more challenging strategic scene.
China is likely to go on a tightly stretched rope, "hiding its magnificence and buying time." This has become more difficult with the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will have to choose. It is more than likely that imperial Jinping will not throw out the grand prize of the American-Chinese “Big Two” for the sake of saving the wretched and incompetent regime in Moscow from its own recklessness.
Mr Putin must now realize how fatal his isolation is and how dangerous each next step is. Even the forgiving German Chancellor Angela Merkel lost her patience and complained bitterly about the “inevitable loss of trust.” Enough European pipelines, starting in 2009, have been reequipped to supply fuel in two directions, with the goal, if necessary, to help vulnerable border states. Eight EU states have LNG terminals. Two more - Poland and Lithuania join the club this year.
The EU Summit last week was a call to arms. The officials were ordered to develop a plan for breaking the dependence on Gazprom within 90 days. Even if it “carries over” this time, Europe will take radical steps to find other sources of energy. Imports from Russia will be halved in 10 years.
Capital flight from Russia in the first quarter reached $ 70 billion. The Russian Central Bank cannot protect the ruble without tightening monetary policy, aggravating the recession in the process. In the next 12 months, Russian banks and enterprises will have to close loans worth 155 billion dollars - in a hostile market, the surcharges on which have already risen by 200 basis points.
Mr Putin is now beginning to realize that global markets are more frightened by the US Securities Commission than by the Russian T-90 tanks. Any sanction against any Russian oligarch associated with a Russian company knocks this company out of the global market, and potentially leads to a default. Lenders in the West will burn. But no one will take this into account when it comes to the interests of national security.
Putin also chose not the best time for his adventure. Europe now has unusually large gas reserves. Oil prices - with other conditions that remain - should fall. Iraq has reached the maximum level of production in the last 35 years, America is adding several hundred barrels of shale oil to the market every day, and Libya is resuming exports. According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, world production jumped 600,000 barrels per day last month. Deutsche Bank predicts a glut in the market. The same is predicted by the Chinese Sinopec. Mr Putin, under his budget, needs a price of 110 dollars per barrel. Very soon, he may face a reality of $ 80 a barrel.
In the end, he doomed Russia to the trap of average income. The unexpected riches of the oil boom are wasted. Russian engineering skills atrophied. The industry is devastated by the Dutch disease (de-industrialization of a country that has exported one type of raw material): by cursing the revaluation of currency and dependence on the sale of raw materials.
He ran ahead of the locomotive before the transitional government managed to do something serious or waste the goodwill credit of the international community. This is a very raw and impatient coup - for a KGB man. He took Germany for a puppet, and he took China for granted. He got the Crimea, but he turned the Kremlin into a pariah - for another decade, if not a generation, and, most likely, he lost Ukraine forever. This is a highly unsuccessful transaction.
UPD: 07/04/2014 There was a video of an attempt to escape Pshonka and Klimenko from Ukraine
Today there was a video from the cameras of the Donetsk airport, when the security of the ex-Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and the ex-minister of income and duties, Alexander Klimenko, while trying to detain, opened fire on border guards.
Former officials tried to leave the country through the airport’s VIP-terminal, but the border guards refused to take them out of control and tried to delay them while passing through the control.
However, the ex-officials, accompanied by armed guards, managed to escape in an unknown direction.
Recall, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine opened criminal proceedings against Pshonka under article 115 of the Criminal Code - a mass murder of people. The sanction of article provides punishment in the form of imprisonment for the term from 7 to 17 years. According to the GPU, in the case of the massacre of people about 50 more people appear as suspects. Pshonku declared wanted.
UPD: 07/04/2014 "All of you are Ukrainians # Ases - Bandera", - pro-Russian activists smash a car in Donetsk
An entry from the DVR of a random witness to the car’s pogrom in Donetsk appeared on the Internet.
According to Ostrov, the car’s pogrom took place at night in some garages in Donetsk. Several people with closed faces with truncheons "processed" a small car.
On the question of where Bandera appeared in Donetsk, the driver who passed by received a more than eloquent response.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Separatists divide the money received after the seizure of the building of the SBU in Lugansk
On the Internet on the popular youtube hosting there was a video made on April 6 immediately after the capture of the building of the SBU in Lugansk.
UPD: 07/04/2014 In Kharkov, pro-Russian activists with sticks and bottles attacked pro-Ukrainian
There were clashes between people with Russian flags, who stood at the entrance to the Kharkiv regional administration, and participants in a rally with Ukrainian flags that were lined up in front of the RSA. Reports about it "Main".
Several hundred people with St. George ribbons began to move from the Regional State Administration towards the square, trying to press the rally with Ukrainian flags. Participants in the pro-Russian protest threw plastic bottles and other objects at people under Ukrainian flags. It was also heard two loud bangs, as from explosives.
The fight began. People with St. George ribbons were armed with sticks. There are several affected on both sides. The Regional State Administration has four ambulances.
There is no meeting with Ukrainian flags anymore, reports MediaPort.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Donetsk separatists imitate Maidan: tires, cobblestones, sandwiches
Pro-Russian separatists for the night strengthened the barricades of tires and barbed wire on the steps captured on the eve of the Donetsk Regional State Administration.
Now there are about 150 people under the walls of the DonOGA building, many of whom are armed with sticks, bats and shields, taken away on Sunday from police officers guarding the administrative building, reports Tsenzor. NO referring to Ostrov. The faces of the separatists are hidden by masks and balaclava. Also on the steps and flowerbeds lie mountains of cobblestone for self-defense.
As reported, on Sunday, April 6, the Donetsk regional administration was seized by pro-Russian separatists. They fully occupied the building, including the office of Donogha’s chairman, Sergei Taruta. The police did not prevent the seizure.
UPD: 07/04/2014 In the Crimea, the Russian invaders shot and killed a Ukrainian officer - the Ministry of Defense
April 6 at 23.40 Kyiv time, in the village. Novofedorovka in an officer’s hostel with two shots at close range from an AK-74 assault rifle junior sergeant Ye.S. shot Major Karachevsky Stanislav Vladimirovich (born in 1981), who served in one of the military units of the Ukrainian Navy and was preparing to travel to the mainland. It is reported by the press service of the military.
The tragedy occurred in the corridor on the fifth floor of the hostel number 3 on the street Marchenko D. The second in the village Novofedorivka, Saki district, Crimea.
According to the ministry, it was previously established that one bullet hit a Ukrainian officer in the chest, the second in the area of the eye, traces of blood lead from the third floor. There is an assumption that there was a movement of the body of the deceased.
There is also information that the comrade of the deceased - the officer of the operational department of the headquarters of the military unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine captain Ermolenko Artem Vladimirovich was brutally beaten up and arrested by the soldiers of the Russian Federation, currently transferred to the investigative department of the Black Sea Fleet.
According to witnesses at about the time of the officer’s death, explosions and gunshots were heard in the hallways of the dormitory.
According to sources of the “Ukrainska Pravda”, “a quarrel arose between the parties“ on the basis of personal hostility. ”The Russians were armed, the Ukrainian officer did not.” “He tried to run away and hide in a dormitory, but he was caught up and shot. The shot was fatal,” the source added.
The local police and representatives of the Russian military arrived at the scene, and the commander of the Ukrainian unit was present.
However, according to the initiator of the "Information Resistance" Dmitry Tymchuk, the occupants took the body of the deceased.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Yatsenyuk: In the East, Russia is implementing a plan to invade Ukraine
In the eastern regions are implementing a plan to invade Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. On this, opening a government meeting on Monday, said Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Interfax-Ukraine reported.
"I would like to appeal, first of all, to all residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear to everyone that the anti-Ukrainian, anti-Donetsk, anti-Ugan and anti-Kharkov plan is being implemented. A plan to destabilize the situation, a plan for foreign troops to cross the border and seize the country what we are not allowed to do, "he said.
Yatsenyuk expressed confidence that the residents of these regions want to live in a single country. He stressed that the authorities will not allow the implementation of this plan.
He also stressed that Russia did not withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border - they are in the 30-kilometer zone.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Having captured 4.5% of Ukraine, Putin made a catastrophic miscalculation and ruined his dream, - The New York Times
Russian history textbooks praise Peter the Great as a modernizer and visionary who turned Russia into a European power, writes the British historian Robert Service in The New York Times.
However, Vladimir Putin resembles another tsar, Nicholas I, who was remembered for “getting involved in an armed conflict with Britain and France and rejecting calls for basic reforms that Russia needs to compete with the world powers of that time,” reports Tsenzor. Foreign press.
"Always attentive to the armed forces and the secret services, Nicholas I overlooked the broader need to modernize the Russian economy and society. His country paid dearly for this after the humiliation of his army in the Crimean War of 1853-1856," the article says. Putin demonstrates an equally clear lack of foresight. "
Having captured 4.5% of the Ukrainian territory, Putin accomplished the incredible thing - he personally destroyed his dream of creating a Eurasian Union under the leadership of Russia. “This is a catastrophe for Putin’s foreign policy. Even though he hides it from society through control over state channels, he cannot fool all the people all the time,” the author writes.
Putin’s main miscalculation concerns Russia itself, continues the Service. The emergency situation in Ukraine prompted the richest people in the country to transport even more funds to the West: this year alone, up to $ 70 billion has been withdrawn from Russia.
No less disturbing for the Russian president should be the outflow of human capital. "Young people are leaving, driven to despair by boorish officials and aggressive dealers. They want to live in meritocracy, where only talent matters. Their model is Sergey Brin from Google, and not miserable ministers and businessmen of Putin’s yard," the historian believes.
In addition, the head of the Russian state made insufficient efforts to diversify and make the Russian economy more open. “Russia should produce high-tech products, not just oil and gas,” the author points out. “And the rival power, for which she needs to look, is not in the west, but in the south. From the mid-1970s, China’s leaders diversified their economies the same is the minimum requirement for securing the status of a Eurasian power for Russia. Instead, the Chinese are preparing to become a superpower, while the Russians are lagging behind. "
Putin began the year with a demonstration of the Russian "soft power" at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, the closing ceremony of which presented Russia as a stylish and non-aggressive country of sports and culture. The very next day he sent troops to the Crimea, and now the World Bank is predicting Russia's economic recession by the end of the year.
"Western countries are not going to start the second Crimean war, but they have more opportunities to put pressure on Russia than Putin had intended. It will be useful for him to study the precedent of Tsar Nicholas I," Service advises.