#EuroMajdan # євромайдан Chronicle 07/04/2014
UPD: 07/04/2014 Putin's strategic miscalculation: Russia in ticks between the US and China
Vladimir Putin committed an outrageous strategic miscalculation, breaking the book of rules of international relations and not asking China's consent. Any hope of recruiting Beijing as an ally that will help dull the pain of Western sanctions is doomed to failure - and with it the Kremlin's chances of a painless victory and victory in general.
Mr Putin, in his triumphant speech on the Crimea, hastened to thank the Chinese Politburo for alleged support. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with his usual elasticity, reported on "coinciding assessments of Russia and China in the situation in Ukraine."
This, of course, is a desperate lie. China did not stand behind Russia during the voting on the Crimea in the Security Council, as was the case with Syria. He defiantly refrained. His Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that "China always adheres to the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of any state and respects the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."
We do not know exactly what Xi Jinping said during the meeting with President Obama in The Hague, but what he said has nothing to do with the Kremlin's crazy opinions. US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes admired the progress of these negotiations, and after them argued that Russia can no longer rely on the "traditional ally".
If this is so, then Mr. Putin was swindled. He will not be able to avoid financial strangulation with American financial muscle - and if he sends soldiers to Eastern Ukraine, and if he simply confines himself to inflating chaos there, with the help of Russian agents provocateurs.
He also does not have hopes that he will be able to mix all the cards to the West, having created with Eurasia the block of Eurasian block - the league of authoritarian regimes, which controls huge reserves of natural resources. Such an outcome is an obsession of the "spenglerites", self-haters of the West, confident that they are finished with America, and that the dollar will be replaced by a Eurasian gold ducat.
The reality is that China constantly and relentlessly destroys Russia's monopoly on control over the gas reserves of Central Asia. Turkmen gas always went north, and was held hostage to Gazprom's pricing policy. Now it goes to the east. President Ci personally appeared in September 2013 to open an 1800-km gas pipeline to China from the Galkins deposit, the second largest in the world (26 trillion cubic meters).
The gas pipeline will supply up to 62 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This is half of what Gazprom delivers to Europe. The same thing happens in Kazakhstan, where Chinese companies have established control over most of the energy industry. The happening is caustic described in a series of diplomatic telegrams from Central Asia published by Wikileaks. A British diplomat in 2010 reports that the Russians "with pain" are watching their energy dominance in Central Asia evaporate.
Even more opens the eyes to the ongoing telegram, in which the Ambassador of the PRC in Kazakhstan, Jen Guoping, is quoted. He warns that China and Russia are following the course leading to the clash, and the side that will yield will not be China. The ambassador said: "In the future, the relations between the great powers in Central Asia will be delicate and complex. New oil and gas pipelines are destroying the Russian monopoly on energy exports. "
Mr. Jen not only positively assessed the US role in the region, but also expressed the view that NATO should participate as an observer in the negotiations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - the alleged Russian-Chinese response to the EU / NATO axis - with the aim of "destroying the Russian monopoly in the region". region ".
Axis- The USSR / China - was one of the favorite scarecrows in the 60's. Henry Kissinger, however, saw that two hostile cultures are on knives all over their border. As aptly expressed in 2006 by Akier Iwasita - "Four thousand kilometers of problems".
Jordan Valden exposed the deep roots of this mutual distrust in his little book China: A Wolf in the World? He worked as a diplomat in Russia and China. He was one of the very few Westerners who lived in China during the Cultural Revolution. He closely watched how deeply the two branches of the Marxist Brothers hated each other. And indeed, they have reached the brink of nuclear war. Both the CIA and the State Department were stunned by his report. They did not have sources on the ground in the era of Mao.
Valden says that the Chinese will never forgive the Russians for taking over Eastern Siberia - even under the tsar. For them it is "lost territory". They want the return of property, and in this they are supported by an ethnic resettlement for the Amur, very reminiscent of the Mexican migrant reconquest of California and Texas.
The population of Eastern Siberia in 20 years has decreased from 8 million to 6.3 million people, and behind these figures are ghost towns along the Trans-Siberian Railway. Russia was not able to take advantage of the fruits of its eastern event. With the birth rate of 1.4, chronic alcoholism, and the expected reduction in the population by 30 million, it is projected that by the year 2050 no more than 110 million people will live in Russia (according to UN statistics, not Mr. Putin's demographers), the nation will inevitably roll back to the European bastion Old Moscow. The question is, how fast, and how peaceful.
China expert Jonathan Fenbi says that there is a faction in the Chinese National Security Council that intended to support Putin over Ukraine, hoping in return to squeeze out more favorable terms for gas, food and minerals supplies from it. But these voices were drowned by Xi Jinping. He plays on a more complex strategic stage.
China, most likely, will go on tight rope, "hiding its splendor and buying time." This became more difficult with the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will have to choose. More than likely, the imperial Jinping will not throw out the great prize of the American-Chinese "Big Two" for the sake of saving the wretched and incompetent regime in Moscow - from its own recklessness.
Mr. Putin must now realize how fatal his isolation is, and how dangerous each next step is. Even the all-forgiving chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, has lost patience and bitterly complains about the "inevitable loss of trust". Enough European pipelines have been retrofitted since 2009 to supply fuel in two directions with the aim, if necessary, of helping vulnerable border states. Eight EU countries have LNG terminals. Two more - Poland and Lithuania join the club this year.
The EU summit last week was a call to arms. Officials are ordered within 90 days to develop a plan to break the dependence on Gazprom. Even if "carried" this time, Europe will take radical steps to find other sources of energy. Import from Russia will be cut by half within 10 years.
The flight of capital from Russia in the first quarter reached 70 billion dollars. The Russian Central Bank can not protect the ruble without tightening monetary policy, in the process exacerbating the recession. Russian banks and enterprises will have to close loans of $ 155 billion in the next 12 months - in a hostile market, which has already increased by 200 basis points.
Mr. Putin is now beginning to realize that the global markets are more frightened by the US Securities Commission than the Russian T-90 tanks. Any sanction against any Russian oligarch associated with a Russian company dislodges this company from the global market, and potentially leads to a default. Creditors in the West will burn. But no one will take this into account when it comes to the interests of national security.
Putin also chose not the most successful moment for his adventure. Europe now has unusually large gas reserves. Oil prices - with other conditions remaining - should fall. Iraq has reached the maximum level of production over the past 35 years, America daily adds several hundred barrels of shale oil to the market, and Libya renews its exports. According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, global production last month jumped by 600,000 barrels a day. Deutsche Bank predicts a glut of the market. The same is predicted by the Chinese Sinopec. Mr. Putin needs a price of $ 110 per barrel for his budget. Very soon, he could face a reality of $ 80 per barrel.
In the end, he condemned Russia to the middle income trap. Unexpected riches of the oil boom are squandered. Russian engineering skills atrophied. The industry is devastated by the Dutch disease (the deindustrialization of a country that switched to the export of one type of raw material): the curse of currency revaluation and dependence on the sale of raw materials.
He ran ahead of the locomotive, before the transitional government managed to do anything serious or squander the credit of the goodwill of the international community. This is a very crude and impatient putsch - for a KGB man. He accepted Germany as a puppet, and he accepted China for granted. He received the Crimea, but he turned the Kremlin into a pariah - for another decade, if not a generation, and, most likely, forever lost Ukraine. This is a highly unsuccessful deal.
UPD: 07/04/2014 A video of the attempt to escape Pshonka and Klimenko from Ukraine appeared
Today there was a video from the cameras of the airport of Donetsk, when the protection of ex-Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and ex-Minister of incomes and fees Alexander Klimenko, when trying to detain, opened fire at the border guards.
Former officials tried to leave the country via the airport's vip terminal, but the border service officers refused to take them off during the check-out and tried to detain them.
However, ex-officials accompanied by armed guards managed to escape to an unknown direction.
Recall, the General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine opened a criminal proceeding against Pshonka under Article 115 of the Criminal Code - the massacre of people. The sanction of the article provides for punishment in the form of imprisonment for a term of 7 to 17 years. According to the GPU, in the case of the massacre of people as suspects, there are still about 50 people. Pshonka was put on the wanted list.
UPD: 07/04/2014 "All of you khokly-pida # aces - Bandera", - pro-Russian activists are smashing the car in Donetsk
On the Internet there was a recording from the video recorder of a casual witness of a pogrom of a car in Donetsk.
As reported by the Island, the pogrom of the car occurred at night in some garages in Donetsk. Several people with closed faces with truncheons "processed" a small car.
When asked about where the Bandera people appeared in Donetsk, the driver drove past, received a more than eloquent response.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Separatists divide received money after capture of SBU building in Lugansk
On the Internet on the popular youtube hosting there was a video recording made on April 6 immediately after the capture of the building of the Security Service in Lugansk.
UPD: 07/04/2014 In Kharkov, pro-Russian activists with sticks and bottles attacked pro-Ukrainian
Between people with Russian flags who stood at the entrance to the Kharkov regional administration, and participants in a rally with Ukrainian flags that lined up in front of the State Administration, there were skirmishes. This is reported by "The Main".
Several hundred people with the St. George ribbons began to move from the OGA towards the square, trying to press the rally with Ukrainian flags. The participants of the pro-Russian protest threw plastic bottles and other objects into people under Ukrainian flags. It was also heard two loud claps, as from explosive packages.
A fight broke out. People with St. George ribbons were armed with sticks. There are several injured on both sides. The OGA has four fast.
A rally with Ukrainian flags is no longer present, MediaPort reports.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Donetsk separatists imitate Maidan: tires, cobblestones, sandwiches
Pro-Russian separatists overnight strengthened barricades of automobile tires and barbed wire on the steps seized on the eve of the Donetsk regional state administration.
Now under the walls of the building of the DonGa there are about 150 people, many of whom are armed with sticks, bats and shields, taken away on Sunday from the police guarding the administrative building, transfers Censor.NET with reference to the Island. The separatist faces are hidden by masks and balaclava. Also on the steps and flower beds lie the mountains of cobblestones for self-defense.
As reported, on Sunday, April 6 Donetsk regional administration was captured by pro-Russian separatists. They completely occupied the building, including the office of the chairman of the DonSA, Sergei Taruta. The police did not prevent the seizure.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Russian occupants shot dead Ukrainian officer in Crimea, - Defense Ministry
April 6 at 23.40 in Kiev time, in the village. Novofedorovka in the officer's hostel with two shots at point-blank range from the AK -74 assault rifle. Serviceman of a separate battalion of the Marine Corps of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Junior sergeant Zaitsev E.S. shot a major Karachevsky Stanislav Vladimirovich (1981 b.), who served in one of the military units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and was preparing to leave for the mainland. This was reported by the press service of the military department.
The tragedy occurred in the corridor on the fifth floor of the hostel № 3 along Marchenko St. Second Street in the town of Novofedorivka, Saki district, Crimea.
According to the agency, it was previously established that one bullet hit the Ukrainian officer in the chest, the second in the eye area, traces of blood from the third floor. There is a suggestion that there was a movement of the body of the deceased.
Also, there is information that the comrade of the deceased - the officer of the operational division of the headquarters of the military unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain Ermolenko Artem Vladimirovich, brutally beaten and arrested by Russian soldiers, has now been transferred to the Investigation Department of the Black Sea Fleet.
According to witnesses, around the hour of the officer's death, explosions and shots were heard in the corridors of the hostel.
According to the sources of the Ukrainska Pravda, "a quarrel arose between the parties" on the basis of personal dislike. "The Russians were armed, the Ukrainian officer was not." "He tried to escape and hide in the hostel, but he was caught and fired." The shot was fatal, "the source added.
Local police and representatives of the Russian military arrived to the scene of events, and the commander of the Ukrainian part also attended.
However, according to the initiator of "Information Resistance" Dmitry Tymchuk, the occupiers took the body of the deceased.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Yatsenyuk: In the East, Russia is implementing a plan to invade Ukraine
In the eastern regions, the plan is to invade Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. This was announced by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, opening the government's session on Monday, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
"I would like to appeal first and foremost to all the residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine.It's perfectly clear that the anti-Ukrainian, anti-Don, anti-Lugansk and anti-Haruka plan is being implemented." The plan is to destabilize the situation, plan for foreign troops to cross the border and seize the country's territory , which is unacceptable, "he said.
Yatseniuk expressed confidence that residents of these regions want to live in a single country. He stressed that the authorities will not allow the implementation of this plan.
He also stressed that Russia did not withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border - they are in a 30-kilometer zone.
UPD: 07/04/2014 Taking 4.5% of Ukraine, Putin made a catastrophic miscalculation and destroyed his dream, - The New York Times
Russian history textbooks extol Peter the Great as a modernizer and visionary who turned Russia into a European power, British historian Robert Service writes in The New York Times.
However, Vladimir Putin reminds another Tsar, Nikolai I, who was remembered for "engaging in an armed conflict with Britain and France and rejecting calls for basic reforms necessary for Russia to compete with the world powers of the time," the Censor reports. Inopressu.
"Always attentive to the armed forces and secret services, Nicholas I overlooked the broader need for modernization of the Russian economy and society, which his country paid dearly for after the humiliation of his army in the Crimean War of 1853-1856," the article says. Putin also demonstrates an equally obvious lack of foresight. "
Having seized 4.5% of the Ukrainian territory, Putin committed the incredible - personally destroyed his dream of creating a Eurasian Union under the leadership of Russia. "This is a disaster for Putin's foreign policy, although he hides it from the public through control over the state television stations, he can not deceive all the people all the time," the author writes.
The main miscalculation of Putin concerns Russia itself, continues Service. The emergency situation in Ukraine prompted the country's richest people to send more money to the West: this year alone, up to $ 70 billion was withdrawn from Russia.
Equally alarming for the Russian president should be an outflow of human capital. "Young people are leaving, driven to despair by boorish officials and aggressive businessmen who want to live in meritocracy, where only talent matters, their model is Sergey Brin from Google, and not the miserable ministers and businessmen of Putin's court," the historian believes.
In addition, the head of the Russian state has made insufficient efforts to diversify and open the Russian economy more openly. "Russia must issue high-tech products, not just oil and gas," the author points out, "and the competing power that it needs to look after is not in the west but in the south." Since the mid-1970s, China's leaders have diversified their economies The same is the minimum requirement for Russia to become a Eurasian power, instead, the Chinese are preparing to become a superpower, while the Russians are lagging behind. "
Putin began the year by demonstrating the Russian "soft power" at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, the closing ceremony of which presented Russia as a stylish and non-aggressive country of sport and culture. The very next day he sent troops to the Crimea, and now the World Bank predicts Russia's economic recession by the end of the year.
"Western countries are not going to start the second Crimean war, but they have more opportunities to put pressure on Russia than Putin suggested, and it will be useful for him to study the precedent of Tsar Nicholas I," Service advises.