Selecting the first move
Data on the probability values that we quoted on previous pages , allow you to choose the first move, if everything suits hand game was relatively clean. We show this by example.
example 1
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79VK 78B - 79B |
According to the calculation table of P (1) on the previous pages for a given scenario, it is necessary to go with a peak of nine. Then the probability of catching Mizera will be 33%. If you go to of clubs eight or nine of hearts, the probability of loss is 52%. |
Often, when his and someone else needs to be done during the various demolitions.
example 2
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79KT 8B - 79VDT |
In its course it is necessary to carry the jack of clubs or any ace. The course to do with the eight of clubs. The probability of failure is equal to 1%. If someone else during demolished two clubs, and a miser becomes pure. If this be done with the demolition of their course, the probability of failure is 20%. |
example 3
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79KT 7B 79VDKT - |
Here it is necessary to demolish the ace of spades and the jack of clubs. Progress made with the seven of clubs. Demolished two high peaks at a strange course. |
example 4
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
- 710K 710D 79VDKT |
In the course of his King and demolished ten of clubs. In a strange course of clubs carried by the king and queen of diamonds. |
example 5
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79DK 710 79B 79B |
It is necessary to carry the peak of the king and ten of clubs. If someone else is better to carry during the peak marriage. |
example 6
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79VT 79VK 79B D |
Demolition of Hearts Queen and Jack of Diamonds. Progress made with the nine of diamonds. In a strange course, minuscule clean. (Demolition of the ace of spades and queen of hearts). |
In some cases it is not possible to reduce the possibility of adjusting drift fishing.
example 7
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
79VK 79B 79B 9D |
Here it is necessary to bear lady and nine of hearts. Progress made with a peak of nine. 30% probability of failure. Progress with the nine of hearts increases the probability to 54%. |
example 8
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
710K 78D D 7910KT |
Quite an interesting layout. If you carry two ladies and go to the eight of clubs, the catching probability determined by the probability of catching the alignment of 710K is 81%. It is better to carry the peak of the king and queen of diamonds, then why go? |
To understand where to go, we write out the table of probability values corresponding to our alignment:
710 - D = 0.5;
P (1) = 0.56
78D - F = 0.4;
P (1) = 0.82
79VKT - P = 0;
P (1) = 0.2
If you make a move with peak scores, the total probability of catching the alignment will be equal to:
R (c) = 0.56 + 0.4 - 0.736 = 0,56h0,4
If you go to the ladies of clubs, you get:
R (c) = 0.5 + 0.82 - 0.91 = 0,82h0,5
If you go with the nine of hearts, there will be:
F (c) = 0.2 + (0.5 + 0.4 - 0,5h0,4) - 0.2 (0.5 + 0.4 - 0,5h0,4) = 0.76
Therefore it is necessary to make a move with peak scores.
Give an example, when in its course to the player hand are suited that contain sevens.
example 9
|
♠ ♣ ♦ ♥ |
810VK 7910T 78VD - |
At its best during the tear down of the king and a jack peak with a view to move to the peak start drawing tens scopic suit. This can be done thanks to the interception in the clubs. |
