Market Forecast for Mobile Operating Systems
According to the latest Gartner estimates, before the beginning of 2014, OSs such as Symbian and Android will lead the market of operating systems for mobile devices. The estimated number of mobile devices with OS data among the sold mobile terminals for the year will be approximately 59.8%.
Due to the high sales volumes of Nokia devices and the active promotion of its devices in the budget segment, the leadership will remain with the Symbian operating system. However, by the end of the period, the Android OS will claim to be the leader. Phones with the Android operating system may, by the end of this year, move to the second place in popularity in the world.
Experts predict that by 2014, open source platforms will take up to 60% of the smartphone market. In turn, closed platforms such as iOS and RIM will increase the number of sales, but the growth rate of income will be lower than the general market and insufficient to increase market share.
Analysts believe that the global market for mobile operating systems is currently represented by four main players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS. Performing updates for these operating systems (Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3, Symbian 4 and Windows Phone 7), according to experts, will further boost the smartphone market during the second half of 2010 and early 2011.
Table 1. Forecasts of deliveries of mobile devices (thousand pieces) with installed OS to end users:
According to an earlier forecast, the mobile OS iPhone OS may lose the lead and skip forward Android by the beginning of 2012. According to analysts, the Android OS in 2 years can already be installed on 75 million devices, and iOS, in turn, only 62 million.
Thus, Android increase its market share by 19.4% (2.7% in 2009). The share of Apple iOS will be only 15.9% (13.8% in 2009). For Android, by 2014, this figure could still grow and reach 22.8%, while the share of iPhone OS could be reduced to 15.3%.
According to IDC experts, until 2013, Symbian OS can retain leadership, when Google’s Android operating system will show the largest increase in market share.
According to experts, over the next three years, global purchases of smartphones will increase to 390 million devices, showing an annual increase of 20.9% from 2009 to 2013. The consequence of this will be that the market for mobile operating systems, once formed by such pioneers as BlackBerry, Symbian and Windows Mobile, will begin to shift towards newcomers using open source standards (Android) and an intuitive interface and navigation (Mac OS X and webOS).
IDC predicts that until 2013, Symbian OS will be able to retain its leading position, mainly due to the strong position in the international market of the Finnish company Nokia. Android will show a very fast growth rate of its share.
In 2008, the number of Android OS users was estimated at only 690 thousand, but according to forecasts, up to 2013, the total number of shipments of mobile devices from this OS can reach 68 million, which is 150% of the growth in market share. Linux-based operating systems will gradually lose their popularity, due to the pressure from an open source competitor, Android. Palm webOS, despite stable growth, will occupy a rather modest niche, mainly due to limited access to devices from various telecom operators.
The global market for converged mobile devices (smartphones) is expected to grow by 55.4% this year compared to last year due to a greater than expected demand for these devices. This is 10% higher than the previous IDC forecast based on Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker data.
IDC now expects vendors to deliver 269.6 million units this year. converged mobile devices against 173.5 million units. last year. IDC raises its forecast on the background of the release of several new models - BlackBerry Torch, EVO 4G and iPhone 4 - in recent months.
“The smartphone is a catalyst for the resurgence of the global mobile phone market this year,” writes Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst, IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “The introduction of new products and the expected recovery in purchasing activity in this segment in the second half of the year will push the market far above previous expectations.”
During the first half of 2010, vendors supplied a total of 119.4 million units. devices, or 55.5% more than in the first half of 2009 (76.8 million units).
“The global smartphone market continues to grow at a fast pace, and the dynamic of the relationship between mobile operating systems continues to change,” writes Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst, Mobile Devices Technology and Trends, IDC. - The long-standing OS leaders — BlackBerry, Symbian, and Windows Mobile — are getting ready to go out or have already come out in new versions to compete with recent novices, Android and iOS. The last two attracted the interest of consumers, taking the market share from the old guard, and helped move the market further. ”
“Android is a new OS that deserves close attention during the remainder of this year and beyond,” further writes Mr. Llamas. - Phone vendors began to switch to Android, because this OS allows them to offer their own approach to how the smartphone user interface should look. In addition, users quickly warmed to Android, comparing it with iOS, thanks to the ease of use and the growing showcase of mobile applications. Now that HTC and Motorola have come to the fore with their models, other vendors - Dell, Kyocera, LG Electronics and Samsung - will soon also help grow the Android market. ”
Accelerating growth in the smartphone segment will help improve the performance of the market as a whole this year. IDC now expects that the mobile phone market as a whole in 2010 will grow by 14.1%, i.e., 1.5% higher than in the previous forecast. Last year, the market had a decline of 2.8%, for the first time in the history of the Mobile Phone Tracker.
The outlook for 2011 also looks very strong. Despite the uncertainty in the economy, it is expected that in 2011 the smartphone market will grow by 24.5%. However, this growth will gradually decline over the five-year forecast period. So, in 2014, the market is expected to grow by only 13.6%.
However, there is plenty of room for many players to grow. No mobile OS will dominate as Windows on personal computers. “IDC believes that the market will easily support up to five mobile operating systems over the next five years,” writes Mr. Restivo. “Shorter replacement cycles and an abundance of upgrade opportunities from a specialized phone to a smartphone mean that the mobile OS market will remain fragmented, but quite healthy in the foreseeable future.”
Symbian will retain its leading position during the forecast period with a market share of 32.9% in 2014. However, it will lose its share, mainly in favor of Android, which is expected to increase its share faster than others in this period, increasing its from 16.3% to 24.6%. It is also expected that Windows Mobile will regain part of the market share lost in the last two years, and the share of BlackBerry will remain relatively stable, while the share of iOS will gradually decrease.