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Management - Vikhansky OS

2.3. The process of management decision-making

Decision-making in management is a complex and systematic process consisting of a series of steps and stages, starting with the formulation of the problem and ending the commission of actions to solve this problem (Fig. 9.7).

The first stage of the process is to recognize the need to address and includes the following steps:

• recognition of the problem;

• formulation of the problem;

• definition of criteria for successful solution of the problem.

Each new solution to manage arises on the basis of previously made decisions, actions in which either resulted in or have deviated from the original selected variant, or came into conflict with the changes that have taken place in the external environment. Deviation of the situation from a given state in the process of decision-making by managers not immediately detected. In practice, this deviation is a gap between the goals of the organization and the level of their achievement. Fast detection of this difference depends on two factors: the ability of management to do so in self-regulation mode, experience and personal characteristics of a manager.

If we assume that the decision is the organizational response to the problem, the stage of examination of the situation aimed at the recognition of the non-recognition of the existing IPT in the organization of the problem. The process is different for structured and unstructured problems (Fig. 9.8). In the first case, the recognition of the problem will be fairly straightforward. In the second case, the recognition of the problem itself becomes a problem. This happens when there is a vague and inadequate information about the development and trends in the organization and its external environment.

Types of Organizational Types

problems making levels

Fig. 9.8. The nature of the problems and solutions in an organization

Recognition of the problem is a prerequisite for its decision, as if the problem does not exist for the one who makes the decisions, and the decision does not take place.

Once the problem is recognized, the next step in this process - this is the formulation and interpretation problems. Interpretation of the problem - it's giving the value of the problem, which is recognized. The problem can be defined as an opportunity, as a crisis or as a routine problem. The first type of problem it is necessary to discover and reveal. The second and third - manifest themselves and require the intervention of the manager.

Routine or repetitive problems are classified as structured, and the possibility of a crisis - to unstructured. Accordingly, for each type of problem will require different types of solutions: for structured - programmed solutions for unstructured - neprogrammirovannye.

Defining the problem is to receive a response to the following questions: 1) what is really happening in the organization? 2) what are the causes of what is happening? 3) that is behind all this?

The definition and the subsequent formulation of the problem allows the manager to rank it among other problems. The following factors may underlie the problem of ranking:

• consequences of the problem (capital intensity, efficiency, impact on ... and so on);

• impact on the organization (what happens as a result of solving the problem);

Problemy and • Urgency time-limit;

• The degree of utilization of abilities and management time;

• attention to the problem (motivation and abilities in the presence of members);

• the life cycle of the problem (if the problem can be solved by itself or in the solution of other problems).

The study of these factors allows the manager to determine the procedure for solving problems, to rank them from most important to least important. Most important, they tend to become a problem, with the following characteristics:

• The problem gets strong support and pressure from the outside in favor of its decisions (eg, superiors insisted on for a certain period of completion of the project);

• The problem is supported by the resources necessary for its solution (for example, allocated extra budgetary funds, materials, people);

• solution opens up the possibility, which can not be avoided (eg, time to market with new products allows the company to improve the competitive position to get big profits and increase the income of their employees).

In practice, the number of problems, we obtain as the most important, it is generally greater than the manager the possibility to address them within the available time had.

The search for alternatives should precede the step of determining the criteria for a successful solution. This helps to avoid many of the mistakes that manifest later.

According to many experts, this stage begins with the definition of two types of criteria: the criterion of "we" and the criterion of "we want." The first type of criteria must be defined before it will be considered any alternative.

In the case of the criterion of "we want" we discuss the goals that are desirable, but in respect of which need not be developed any alternatives. The criterion of "we want" makes the manager to think about all possible options, not excluding the ideal. It promotes creativity by expanding the boundaries to make new choices. In general, the definition of the criteria in the early stages of the decision-making process forces managers to think about what will be the best solution.
Stage of development of solutions consists of the development stages, evaluation of alternatives and choices. Once the factors that limit the decision, the manager can start working to find alternatives or possible courses of action to solve the problem. Many alternatives easily detected. They are usually known from previous experience, are standard and easy to fit in a criterion border better solutions.

Often, however, there are new, unique problems whose solution does not fit into the usual and standard framework. In this case requires a creative approach. There are many creative methods to search for alternatives: the so-called "brainstorming"; proposing; Group analysis of the situation; cause and effect diagram; Map views "It is important to understand that the creative atmosphere in finding alternatives created by the head of the people he makes the creators of the new tvorcheskoy.sredy Secret -... in the skillful management.

The following six steps can make a search for alternatives to more creative:

• motivation to seek;

• Providing more information to enable a comprehensive and deeper understanding of the problem;

• free discussion and approval of any ideas for solving the problem;

• creation of conditions for enlightenment;

• testing ideas by others for its compliance with the established criteria.

All of the proposed alternatives to the next step should be compared with each other or further evaluated for selecting the best of these. Evaluation involves identifying the negative and positive aspects of the alternatives considered and the establishment of a compromise between the two levels. It uses both quantitative and qualitative, or intangible, meters. The latter are mainly generated by the relationship between the various forces involved in solving the problem (labor relations, political situation, attitude to risk, etc.). The management practices commonly used methods such as the criterion equation Kepner - Tregoe; payoff matrix; Chart purposes or solutions. The most famous of these is the decision tree method to the equation and evaluation of alternatives put forward. Especially this method is useful in situations where the manager has to deal with uncertainty. The method gives a general picture of the solutions: elections, risks and outcomes that may occur. Moreover, this method helps to discover new alternatives which previously could be omitted for some reason. The method includes the following steps:

• inventory of all alternatives;

• ranking of elections in chronological order;

• decide on the consequences of preference alternatives considered with regard to their capital intensity;

• assessment of the chances that each of the selected events occur.

Selecting alternative is a kind of pinnacle in the decision-making process. Many do not like this step, try to avoid it or to pass on to another, as in the course of this stage of the decision-making has to take on certain obligations on the future course of action. A good analysis of alternatives can dramatically narrow the selection frame. When selecting an alternative can be used three approaches: based on past experience; conducting an experiment; research and analysis.

Attraction past experience is probably the most widely used approach in the selection of alternatives. Experienced managers are not just using this approach, but also feel a strong faith in him. This assertion is based on the fact that the higher level of guidance, the greater the required expertise. To some extent, the experience produces the head of skills and sound decision-making skills.

Experience in problem solving and decision making skills and develops the ability to judgment and intuition. However, many believe that the reliance on past experience for future planning can be very dangerous. This is due to the lack of accounting and analysis of the causes of past mistakes and failures. The experience itself is very situational, and may not fit in with the current situation. The right decision is based on future events, and experience - at last. The experience becomes a useful and powerful tool in deciding if there is a thorough analysis of it, and not blindly follow him and if in the course of this analysis revealed solid reasons for success or failure. In this regard, a lot of interest for the manager is to study the experience of successful companies as well as companies who fail.

The experiment as an alternative selection method is based on the fact that takes one or more alternatives, and they are tested in practice in order to determine what may happen. The experiment is widely used in science. There is a fairly strong opinion about the necessity of wide use of this method in the management and in particular in decision-making. It is believed that this is almost the only way to achieve self-management, that decision to be made correctly. However, it should take into account the high cost of experimentation techniques. Perhaps this is the most expensive method. Also, the complexity of the use of the experiment is the fact that even after the completion of the manager may still doubt the right choice, as possible future situation will not necessarily replicate the current situation. Therefore, the experiment can be used only after a thorough and comprehensive review and analysis.

However, there are solutions that simply can not be taken without holding them confirming the correctness of the choice experiment. For example, the decision to release a batch of the aircraft can not be accepted without the production and testing of one or more of its models. The experiment was also widely used in marketing decisions. Organizational solutions are often tested in the units before they spread to the entire company. Staffing decision can be verified in the course of rotation or internship in the new position.

It is believed that the most common and perhaps the most effective method of selection of alternatives is to conduct research and analysis. This method provides a solution to the problem on the basis of search relationships between its most important variables, constraints, and the basics of which are considered in relation to the stated objectives. In general, a "desk" approach to decision making.

This method also provides for the expansion problem and part of each study. An important tool for this method is to develop and play with the use of quantitative methods and computer models of various solutions. Developed and used a model involving a systematic approach, operations research, game theory, queuing theory, inventory management, linear programming, cost analysis, etc.

The final stage - implementation of this decision. It consists of the organization implementing the decision, analysis and performance monitoring. The most common mistake managers is the assumption that if the choice is made on the decision, the decision is bound to be fulfilled.

Implementation of solutions - is the elimination of the problem, it gave rise to, in relation to which the decision was made.

Organization of implementation of the decision provides for the coordination of efforts of many people. The manager should strive to avoid potential conflicts, to make people interested and motivated to implement the solutions, so arrange the people to use their ability to the maximum.

To do this, first, you need to create a plan of action, turning the solution into a reality.

It is necessary to distribute the rights and responsibilities of the participants. It is important to remember the old rule: "Nothing happens, if not responsible for the action." It should also build a communications network to exchange information and adjust the corresponding relationship of subordination between the parties. Second, the manager must show concern for the conflict of interest and the adoption of the decision of its performers. This was greatly facilitated by various methods of empowerment and participation in governance.

The next stage - the incorporation into the decision mechanism for obtaining information on the implementation of solutions. The basis for such a mechanism should be a system error detection and advances in action to implement the decision. When such a system works efficiently tracking deviations, while in the follow problems may be prevented before they occur.

Information obtained during the tracking information is needed for the adjustment action. Track and Feedback take a lot of time in the manager. In this first-hand information is always better than someone prepared a report or data from the "second" hand. In the first case seen more details and nuances, is a correct assessment and achieved a truer perception of the potential problems and their solutions. It also allows you to show interest in a subordinate manager to carry out the decision. The decision was discussed above as the rational process, ie, how seriyahtady and stages through which the manager has to go from the beginning to the end, to reach full implementation of the decision and eliminate the problem. Is this real practice? Most experts who have studied the real practice of the administrative decisions, the answer is "no", while calling a number of real-world constraints to the application of rational models in the decision making process. These obstacles are the following:

• managers are often unaware that a problem exists at all, because they are either overloaded or problem is well hidden from them;

• it is not possible for technical or economic reasons, to collect all the information relating to the problem;

• Time constraints are forcing managers to make better decisions do not;

• in many cases, it is not considered all the alternatives, and in their evaluation and selection of a little taken into account so-called qualitative or intangible factors;

• implementation of the decision is not all managers associated with the very solution.

A major role in deciding plays intuition. It includes a hunch, imagination, insight. Developed intuition - is the ability to keep all that is associated with a problem in mind throughout the process. Universal and simultaneous coverage of the problem and its solution allows the manager with a developed intuition to move quickly from one stage to another. Very often experienced managers make the right decisions, at a loss to explain how they did it. Studies H. Mintzberg, have shown the importance of intuition and creativity in making decisions, especially strategic.