home Management Theory and practice of human resource management - Shchekin GV

Theory and practice of human resource management - Shchekin GV

10.2. Forecasting in personnel management

The preliminary stage of planning personnel work is the prediction, which is the basis of preparation of planning decisions and tasks. Forecasting is used to predict the changes in the structure and dynamics of the personnel work in the future on the basis of an analysis of past and present and based on the objectives of development of the enterprise, association, industry, to be achieved at a certain stage of perspective. The dynamics of organizations and industries due to the variety of factors acting on the economic system, the presence of mobile communications between individual links management structure. Therefore, the essence of the forecast of the frame structure, ways of its improvement is determined by the foresight of changes in the system of selection, training, placement and training of cadres, the state of demographic changes in the region and the country, increasing requirements for Personnel and personnel work. Forecasting is based on processing the necessary information. The main stages of the prediction procedure:

1) retrospection - the study of the state of personnel management and personnel structure in the past (in the last 10-15 years);

2) diagnosis - determining the nature, status of personnel work and structure of the personnel on the basis of their comprehensive study. It primarily identifies trends in the frame structure, defined ways of improving personnel management, forecasting and target range of human problems to be addressed;

3) the choice of method - the most important stage in forecasting personnel work. Methods can be formal or not: in the first case we use the apparatus of mathematical statistics, in the second - expert opinions and suggestions of a qualitative nature, based on the latest achievements of science and practice in the field of selection, training, placement and training of personnel;

4) Forecast - foreseeing major developments and structural changes in the professional qualification and socio-demographic composition of the staff, the organization and conduct of personnel working in the production.

The main methods of planning and forecasting of personnel work include the balance method of planning, the method of comparative analysis, the method of expert assessments, systems analysis, modeling, economic and mathematical methods and OE Based on these analyzes the dynamics of the social and human processes in labor collectives of buildings and businesses, identified regularities in their development, identifies specific ways to optimize these processes, taking into account the specifics of a particular organization (enterprise). For example, the balance planning method consists in establishing a dynamic equilibrium between the manpower on the one hand, and their distribution in accordance with production requirements - on the other. system analysis methods are used mainly in the development of personnel management development program for the long term and include the study and description of the principles of personnel management system in the workplace; analysis of the most important features of the system components, their interrelationships and interdependencies; establishing similarities and differences of the studied system and other human resource management systems; the transfer of certain properties of the existing features of personnel management model to study the properties of the system. Expert assessments are a special type of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the individual aspects of the social and human processes and are determined on the basis of opinions expressed by the experts (scientists and practitioners).

Anticipation of changes in professional orientation and professional selection of frames, predicting structural changes in their qualitative composition, the system of training and skills development is an important goal of personnel policy in the enterprise, organization, industry. These tasks are successfully solved with the help of the integrated application of various forecasting methods of personnel work.

Practice shows that the methods of forecasting personnel work and improve the qualitative composition of staff at the level of companies and organizations is used occasionally, but modern human resources policy requires their use in the development of complex socio-economic development programs for enterprises, associations, industries. The most relevant are the current problems of the application of personnel management forecasting methods based on the use of computer technology.

Thus, the personnel work plans are an organic part of the personnel working in the production system. This is realized through plans for the most important requirement of modern human resources policy, which is reflected in the principle of proactive recruitment and training of all categories of workers. This means that the development of long-term, five-year and current plans to be calculated and taken into account the dynamics of the movement of personnel managers, professionals, workers, taking into account the dynamics of the planned production. As a result, the role of the analysis of various HR processes, which should precede the carrying out of the work on the preparation of forecasts and personnel management plans. The most important indicators of the state of the analytical personnel work in production should include the qualitative composition of managers, specialists and workers, the level of compliance of professional training technical development of production, the level of the state of labor discipline, turnover and turnover.