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Fіnansova dіyalnіst sub'єktіv gospodaryuvannya - Tereshchenko OO

9.3.1. Dohіdny pіdhіd in otsіntsі vartostі pіdpriєmstva

Otsіnka vartostі pіdpriєmstva s vikoristannyam dohіdnogo pіdhodu ґruntuєtsya on viznachennі teperіshnoї vartostі ochіkuvanih vigіd (dohodіv, penny potokіv) od volodіnnya pіdpriєmstva corporate law. In osnovі pіdhodu lezhit thesis scho metoyu vkladannya kapіtalu іnvestorom at purchase pіdpriєmstva peredusіm Je otrimannya stabіlnih dohodіv. In the framework of tsogo pіdhodu VJ okremlyuyut two osnovnі method:

diskontuvannya penny potokіv (diskontuvannya Cash-flow);

viznachennya kapіtalіzovanoї vartostі dohodіv.

When otsіntsі vartostі pіdpriєmstva tsimi methods danі about vartіst, i warehouse structure aktivіv bezposeredno not vplivayut on otsіnku and vikoristovuєtsya deprivation іnformatsіya about zdatnіst aktivіv generuvati income. Taqiy metodologіchny pіdhіd svoєyu of the same type by nature Je s metodologієyu otsіnki dotsіlnostі іnvestitsіy on bazі kontseptsії zmіni vartostі pennies in chasі.

Method diskontuvannya penny potokіv (Discounted Cash-flow = DCF)

Tsei method pobudovany on kontseptsії teperіshnoї vartostі maybutnogo Cash-flow otsіnyuvanogo pіdpriєmstva in rozrіzі okremih perіodіv. For svoїm ekonomіchnim zmіstom vіn s similar technique diskontuvannya Cash-flow from within otsіnki dotsіlnostі іnvestitsіy (div. Breather. 8).

Zgіdno s method diskontuvannya penny potokіv vartіst ob'єkta otsіnki prirіvnyuєtsya to sumarnoї teperіshnoї vartostі maybutnіh pure penny potokіv (Cash-flow) abo divіdendіv, SSMSC mozhna otrimati in rezultatі volodіnnya pіdpriєmstvom, zmenshenoї an amount zobov'yazan pіdpriєmstva that zbіlshenoї on vartіst nadlishkovih aktivіv.

Nadlishkovі assets - assets pіdpriєmstva Tse, scho in Danian hour vikoristovuyutsya him not to otrimannya fіnansovogo result that zastosuvannya yakih on danomu pіdpriєmstvі in zaznacheny sposіb i nalezhnim rank Je fіzichno nemozhlivim abo ekonomіchno neefektivnim. This sort of assets otsіnyuyutsya, vihodyachi s naykraschogo alternative varіanta їh vikoristannya.

Diskusіynim Je power vrahuvannya at viznachennі vartostі pіdpriєmstva yogo zobov'yazan. When tsomu viokremlyuyut two pіdhodi: Entity (gross vartіst - on bazі sukupnogo kapіtalu) that Equity (net vartіst - on bazі Vlasnyi kapіtalu). Zdebіlshogo, Yakscho structure kapіtalu pіdpriєmstva zadovіlnoyu Yea i vono not perevantazhene Borg vikoristovuyut gross pіdhіd. Well Yakscho balance pіdpriєmstva pereobtyazheno Borg, the ob'єktivnіst otsіnki zabezpechuєtsya vikoristannyam Equity-pіdhodu. Otzhe, zastosuvavshi rate diskontuvannya to prognoznoї sumi clean trumpery flow (chi divіdendіv) for okremі perіodi, otrimaєmo vartіst pіdpriєmstva (gross). Rіznitsya mіzh tsієyu vartіstyu that sumoyu pozichkovogo kapіtalu vіdpovіdaє chistіy vartostі pіdpriєmstva (net) abo zagalnіy sumі Vlasnyi kapіtalu for rinkovoyu vartіstyu. Well Rinkova vartіst Vlasnyi kapіtalu dorіvnyuє rinkovіy tsіnі corporate law otsіnyuvanogo pіdpriєmstva, tobto tsіnі for yak yogo mozhna prodatsya.

Procedure viznachennya vartostі pіdpriєmstva DCF method imposed in the Table. 9.1. For zdіysnennya rozrahunkіv CIM method slіd viznachitisya chotirma s basic values:

1. hours horizon on yaky poshiryuvatimutsya rozrahunki (forecast perіod).

2. Obsyag ochіkuvanogo Cash-flow (abo divіdendіv) in rozrіzі okremih forward-perіodіv.

3. The rate of diskontuvannya, yak slіd vikoristovuvati to bring maybutnіh penny potokіv to teperіshnoї vartostі.

4. Zalishkova vartіst pіdpriєmstva.

rozrahunku vartostі pіdpriєmstva Algorithm (net) by DCF mozhna uyaviti in such viglyadі:

, (9.3)

VPN de - Net (net) as at the date vartіst pіdpriєmstva otsіnki; FCFt - sumarno magnitude operatsіynogo that іnvestitsіynogo Cash-flow in perіodі t; SGP - zalishkova vartіst pіdpriєmstva in perіodі n; AT - nadlishkovі assets; r - koefіtsієnt, yaky harakterizuє diskontuvannya rate (r = WACCs / 100).

Vibіr forecast horizon, yaky vrahovuєtsya at otsіntsі vartostі pіdpriєmstva, digit mіroyu deposits od tsіley otsіnki. W theoreticity Look Tsey perіod Mauger Buti bezkіnechnim, however, praktitsі vihodyat s perіodu korisnoї ekspluatatsії ob'єkta. Yakscho otsіnka zdіysnyuєtsya as part of acceptance rіshennya about timchasove vkladennya kapіtalu in pіdpriєmstvo (dovgostrokovі pozichki chi іnvestuvannya koshtіv korporativnі at right), the forward-looking perіod zbіgatimetsya Zi lines on SSMSC Costa planuєtsya vklasti in pіdpriєmstvo. Yakscho Well rows іnvestuvannya neviznachenim Yea, the forecast horizon poshiryuvatimetsya to time povnoї stabіlіzatsії dіyalnostі that dohodіv pіdpriєmstva.

For otsіnki vartostі pіdpriєmstva on bazі DCF naydotsіlnіshe Je vikoristannya pokaznika Free Cash-flow, yaky harakterizuє sumarno extent that the net penny potokіv pіdpriєmstva in rezultatі operatsіynoї that іnvestitsіynoї dіyalnostі (div. Breather. 4). Zrozumіlo scho prognoznі pokazniki FCF povinnі ґruntuvatisya on forward zvіtah fіnansovі about the result that the predictive pokaznikah balance (tab. 9.1). Ochіkuvanі Income slіd obchislyuvati s urahuvannyam Especially dіyalnostі pіdpriєmstva, prospects yogo rozvitku, galuzevoї spetsifіki that number іnshih ekonomіchnih faktorіv (div. Breather. 12).

table 9.1

Otsіnka vartostі pіdpriєmstvaza method diskontuvannya Cash-flow

Zakіnchennya Table. 9.1

* Diskontnі mnozhniki for rozrahunkіv teperіshnoї vartostі penny potokіv mіstyatsya in spetsіalnih table for fіnansovih rozrahunkіv (div. Dodatok to posіbnika).

Okremimi vіtchiznyanimi techniques rekomenduєtsya pomilkovy, our Dumka, pіdhіd, zgіdno s Yakima as a base for diskontuvannya proponuєtsya brati pure Cash-flow for pіdpriєmstvu od usіh vidіv dіyalnostі - operatsіynoї, іnvestitsіynoї that fіnansovoї. Same ostannіy pokaznik zumovlyuє hibnіst rozrahunkіv, oskіlki fіnansovy Cash-flow viznachaєtsya s urahuvannyam viplati divіdendіv, Povernennya vneskіv іnvestorіv toscho. For diskontuvannya Well slіd priymati sama trumpery value stream, to yak mozhut pretenduvati kapіtalodavtsі, scho th harakterizuєtsya pokaznikom FCF.

Slіd vrahovuvati scho denote Shirshov planuvannya horizon Yea, team vischim Je rіven riziku nepravilnoї otsіnki maybutnogo trumpery flow. For sproschennya rozrahunkіv factor riziku, yak usually not in the forecast vіdobrazhaєtsya pokaznikah FCF, and stavtsі diskontuvannya.

The discount rate is the rate harakterizuє pributku for yakoyu maybutnі groshovі nadhodzhennya lead to teperіshnoї vartostі otsіnki at the time. Vaughn vrahovuє premіyu for rizik іnvestuvannya koshtіv in otsіnyuvane pіdpriєmstvo: cpm bіlshim Je rizik, tim bude rate diskontuvannya vischoyu. Bet diskontuvannya for tsіley otsіnki vartostі pіdpriєmstva rekomenduєtsya rozrahovuvati on osnovі vikoristannya modelі serednozvazhenoї vartostі kapіtalu (WACC) * 2.

* 2: {Volkart R. Unternehmensbewertung und Akquisitionen. - S. 66-67. }

Near techniques proponuєtsya takozh rozrahunok discount rates yak sumi dvoh її Main Components Connection:

1) protsentnoї rate s mіnіmalnim rizikom (chi bezrizikovoї): rekomenduєtsya rozrahovuvati, vihodyachi s serednoї on market analysis for dohіdnostі deposit vkladennyami; mozhut Brother rates of hryvnia deposits, skorigovanі on serednorіchnі Tempi іnflyatsії, SSMSC zakladayutsya them, abo rates for foreign currency deposits;

2) allowances for kumulyativnoї rizik, yak vklyuchaє rіznі surcharges rizik vkladen a particular pіdpriєmstvo, zokrema mozhut peredbachatisya surcharges:

netochnіst prognozuvannya ochіkuvanih potokіv Penny (1-3%);

rizik structuring kapіtalu (0-2%);

Visokiy rіven potochnoї zaborgovanostі (0-2%);

rizik pomilkovih rіshen management, rizik pogіrshennya situatsії pіdpriєmstva on market analysis faktorіv virobnitstva that zbutu produktsії (2-4%);

іnflyatsіynі riziki (fallow od forward-tempіv іnflyatsії).

Slіd zvernuti uwagi on neobhіdnіst uzgodzhennya rozrahunku rates diskontuvannya s type ochіkuvanih vigіd, SSMSC leading to teperіshnoї vartostі: Yakscho maybutnі Income chi flows groshovі rozrahovuyutsya s urahuvannyam Splat podatkіv, the discount rate takozh slіd skoriguvati on vpliv podatkovih factor (napriklad, WACCs). Navpaki, Vigoda to opodatkuvannya slіd diskontuvati for bets rozrahovanoyu without urahuvannya opodatkuvannya rates.

For ob'єktivnogo prognozuvannya vsіh maybutnіh penny dohodіv, SSMSC mozhna will win, vkladayuchi in Costa pіdpriєmstvo, slіd viznachiti yogo zalishkovu vartіst in postforecasted perіod (vartіst reversії). Just past about rozrahunok extent that the net flow of trumpery, yaky mozhna otrimati in rezultatі lіkvіdatsії pіdpriєmstva chi yogo sale of corporate rights. Zrozumіlo, scho Tsei penny potіk suttєvo vplivaє on teperіshnyu vartіst pіdpriєmstva. Before nayvіdomіshih sposobіv rozrahunku zalishkovoї vartostі nalezhat:

on osnovі viznachennya lіkvіdatsіynoї vartostі pіdpriєmstva (vіrogіdnoї tsіni for yak Mauger Buti Prodan on market analysis tsіlіsny Mainova complex pіdpriєmstva abo yogo sukupnіst Mainova aktivіv included in lіkvіdatsіynu masu);

Shlyakhov viznachennya clean aktivіv on kіnets ostannogo forecast perіodu, yaky takes up rozrahunkіv;

for logіkoyu modelі Gordon zgіdno s yakoyu zalishkova vartіst pіdpriєmstva (zagalna rinkova vartіst yogo corporate law == CA) Mauger Buti yak rozrahovana vіdnoshennya pure FCFp in postforecasted perіod (Quarter, Year) to rіznitsі mіzh discount rate (WACC) i growth rates of the FCF ( g): KA = FCFp / WASS - g;

s vikoristannyam tristupіnchastoї modelі rozrahunku for yakoyu perіod dіlovoї aktivnostі pіdpriєmstva umovno podіlyaєtsya three Fazi: protyagom pershoї (napriklad, od 1 to 5 rokіv) rentabelnіst іnvestitsіy in pіdpriєmstvo nabagato perevischuє discount rate; protyagom Druha (6-10 rokіv) spread mіzh WACC is the ROI zmenshuєtsya; pochinayuchi z roku 10-20 growth rates pіdpriєmstva mіnіmalnimi Yea i discount rate nablizhena to rentabelnostі aktivіv * 3. Vіdpovіdno to tsogo pіdhodu, yaky on sogodnі Je nayposhirenіshim in єvropeyskіy praktitsі otsіnki vartostі of companies, predicted zalishkova vartіst pіdpriєmstva rozrahovuvatisya Mauger yak vіdnoshennya FCF in postforecasted perіod (from Table 9.1 -. Perіod 5+) to the discount rate.

* 3: {Volkart R. Unternehmensbewertung und Akquisitionen. - S. 66-67}.