home Political economy Basics of ekonomіchnoї teorії: polіtekonomіchny aspect

Basics of ekonomіchnoї teorії: polіtekonomіchny aspect

§ 2. Serednі i malі cyclic

Istoria serednіh Promyslova tsiklіv bere cob Creasy s ne-revirobnitstva 1825 p., Scho ohopila Velikobritanіyu. Tsey cycle three-Vav 12 rokіv i zakіnchivsya Creasy 1836 p., Yak Uraza ekonomіku Velikobritanії is the United States. After 11 rokіv Ekonomichna new crisis for-hopila vіdtvoryuvalnі structuring Velikobritanії, USA, Frantsії that Nіmechchini. Krisa 1857 p. Perche became svіtovoyu tsiklіchnoyu Cree-Zoe. In neї Bulo vtyagnuto absolutely bіlshіst Promyslova kraїn. Pіznіshe bіlshіst crisis boule svіtovimi. Before them nalezhat Creasy in 1866, 1873, 1882 ,. 1890, 1900, 1907, 1913-1914, 1920-1921, 1929- 1933, pp 1937-1938. Pіslya Druha svіtovoї vіyni rozgornulisya Cree-communication 1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1957-1958,1960-1961,1969-1970,1974- 1975, 1980-1982, 1992-1993, pp. Nova recession phase Pocha on Kamchatka in 1996 p.

Usі nazvanі Creasy rіznyatsya mіzh him, oskіlki cutaneous h are non-reentrant іstorichno that іndivіdualna. Poyasniti їhnyu are for pre-deprivation helped yakoїs odnієї groupies faktorіv nemozhlivo. Prote WMS-on vidіliti number zagalnih zakonomіrnostey, SSMSC vlastivі usіm їm.

1. Ekonomіchnі cyclic serednoї trivalostі toil Vier poslі-dovnі Fazi: Creasy, depresіyu, pozhvavlennya, pіdnesennya. Viznachal-them moments Sered Tsikh phases Yea i pіdnesennya crisis. Perehіd od odnієї Fazi cycle to іnshoї zdіysnyuєtsya automatic and - on osnovі rinkovih samoregulyatorіv.

2. Serednі cycles per svoїm zmіstom vіdobrazhayut tsiklіchnіst roses-round virobnitstva not deprivation, and th obmіnu, rozpodіlu i spozhivannya. Tse zumovlyuє bagatogrannіst tsiklіchnih Oscillations, pokaznikami yakih Je: zagalnі scale virobnitstva, dinamіka natsіonalnogo gross income i natsіonalnogo product zavantazhenіst virobnichih bearing-down, zaynyatіst, realnі incomes of the population. Vazhlivim pokaznikom tsiklіchnostі Je ruh normalized pributku and pokazniki takozh, scho harakterizuyut ekonomіchnu efektivnіst vіdtvorennya.

3. Basics Materіalnoyu serednіh tsiklіv Je fіzichne do updates in the main zasobіv virobnitstva, nasampered їhnoї nayaktivnіshoї Chastain - znaryad pratsі. Otzhe, virobnitstvo zasobіv virobnitstva vikonuє in mehanіzmі tsiklіchnostі funktsіyu base. In protsesі tsiklіch-Oscillations them stink vіdchuvayut naybіlshe navantazhennya. In kraїnah de chastka Galuzo Perche pіdrozdіlu in ekonomіtsі Mensch, tsiklіch-nіst for іnshih odnakovih viyavlyaєtsya less then drain.

4. Tsiklіchnіst scho viklikana do updates in the main virobnichih fondіv not obov'yazkovo generally produces virobnitstva to decline. Starіn-nya i fіzichna zamіna znoshenih zasobіv virobnitstva not bezpose Je-anterior cause of crises. Negativnі naslіdki Tsikh protsesіv mozhna regulyuvati. Ekonomіtsі vnutrіshno pritamannі vlastivostі zapobі-gannya virobnichim such downturns. For tsogo neobhіdno rozmezhuva-minute materіalnі Basics of serednostrokovih tsiklіchnih Oscillations i bezposerednі cause of crisis. Ostannіmi Je vnutrіshnі superechnostі rinkovoї Economy: funktsіonalna vіdokremlenіst її structures-they elementіv i printsipova nemozhlivіst in zv'yazku s CIM tsіlіsnogo makroekonomіchnogo regulyuvannya її.

5. Yea Krisa nayskladnіshoyu that naysuperechlivіshoyu fazoyu Ekon-mіchnogo cycle. W it, s one side, pov'yazanі ruynіvnі Seeley: SKO-Rocen virobnitstva, masovі bankrutstva, bezrobіttya, znizhennya zhittєvogo rіvnya stepped on sotsіalnі zavoyuvannya Migrant i de mokratіyu, polіtichna napruga and other s - crisis vikonuє CREATIVE funktsіyu: tsiklіchnі Oscillations dіlovoї aktivnostі Je odnієyu s minds ekonomіchnogo zrostannya, and she crisis - Active warehouses hour tinoyu CREATIVE PROCESS. Priskoryuyuchi vіdmirannya zastarіlih eco-systems nomіchnih, Je Won odnochasno vazhlivoyu Lanka, scho priskoryuє tehnіchne i do updates tehnologіchne virobnitstva structurally perebudovu Economy.

Zvіdsi viplivaє visnovok about those scho anti-tsiklіchne regulyuvannya Got svoї mezhі, optimalnі norms, and Creasy not boxed pererivannya zavzhdi obgruntovane.

Main fazoyu scho formuє i viznachaє character i trivalіst ekonomіchnogo cycle nayvіdchutnіshoyu for svoїmi sotsіalno-ekonomіch-naslіdkami them, Yea kriza- retsesіya, stiskannya, padіnnya (Fig. 32). Vaughn harakterizuєtsya: torn down makroekonomіchnoї rіvnovagi, rozbalansuvannyam vzaєmodіyuchih structures; perevirobnitstvom h the following padіnnyam obsyagіv virobnitstva, nagromadzhennyam product-weight them in optovіy torgіvlі; padіnnyam trademark tsіn; zrostannyam no-robіttya, zbіlshennyam nezaynyatih virobnichih bearing-down; padіn yum rіvnya realnoї zarobіtnoї pay, іnshih dohodіv, pributkіv pid-priєmstv, zhittєvogo rіvnya population; znizhennyam platospromozh-tion popitu population zmenshennyam obsyagіv optovoї that rozdrіbnoї torgіvlі; Penny collapse and credit zv'yazkіv; knots in the system-mi vzaєmnih neplatezhіv; Credit naprugi, zletom normalized in vіdsotka of physicists; nestacheyu groshovoї masi, Visoko pace іnflyatsії; Masov znetsіnennyam kapіtalu, zavmirannyam іnvestitsіy-protsesіv them; padіnnyam rate aktsіy, bіrzhovoyu panіkoyu; Masov bankrutstvom of companies; zrostannyam sotsіalnoї napruzhenostі in suspіlstvі toscho.

Krizovі yavischa prodovzhuyut narostati to time vіdnovlennya makroekonomіchnoї rіvnovagi on її naynizhchih rіvnyah (if processes padіnnya pripinyaєtsya i rozpochinaєtsya phase depresії, vіdrіzok B- B). Dvoїsta nature Creasy viyavlyaєtsya in fact, scho, s one side, Je Won naslіdkom vnutrіshnіh superechnostey system, and h іnshogo - Form їh rozv'yazannya, vikonuyuchi funktsіyu rehabilitation (sanatsії) ekonomіchnoї system.

Depresіya (zastіy, stagnatsіya) Mauger Buti dosit dovgotrivaloyu, Won harakterizuєtsya pіslyashokovoyu situatsієyu. Main Lake-її nakami Je: stabіlnіst virobnitstva, ale on naynizhchomu rіvnі; at-zupinyaєtsya padіnnya tsіn, vgamovuyutsya іnflyatsіynі processes; zberі-gaєtsya Visokiy rіven bezrobіttya, Quantity robochem mіsts not zbіl-shuєtsya, ruh kapіtalu nezhvavy, vіdsutnі novі іnvestitsії norm in Visoka vіdsotka of physicists; pochinayut vіdnovlyuvatisya gospodarskі zv'yazki; stabіlіzuyutsya i postupovo zmenshuyutsya tovarnі stocks. Vnaslіdok tsogo pomіtnі postupove poshirennya reanіmatsіynih proce-sіv, knots in tendentsіy positively. Rozpochinaєtsya phase AMP-vavlennya. Sered її mainly viyavіv slіd nazvati: Once- ear-nya main kapіtalu, modernіzatsії virobnitstva; vіdnovlennya іnves-titsіynogo processes; aktivіzatsіyu sukupnogo popitu; pіdvische nnya rіvnya virobnitstva, skorochennya bezrobіttya; zrostannya pozikovogo vіdsotka, trademark tsіn. Zastіy zmіnyuєtsya ekonomіchnim zrostannyam, pozhvav-lennya ohoplyuє all bіlshu Quantity of companies, Galuzo, areas of eco-nomіki, zrostayut income, pributki pіdpriєmtsіv. Vid-novlyuєtsya dokrizovy camp Economy (point C1 in Figure 32, yak vіdpovіdaє tochtsі A -. Pіku rozvitku poperednogo ekonomіchnogo cycle).

Ekonomіka included in phase pіdnesennya (ekspansії, azhіotazhnogo boom) i dosyagaє svoєї nayvischoї point pіku rozvitku (point A), pas parameters yakogo uniquely perevischuyut poperednіy. Pіdnesennya ha rakterizuєtsya Masov i do updates rozshirennyam main kapіtalu, rekonstruktsієyu Old virobnichih bearing-down i novim budіvnitstvom; naroschuvannyam obsyagіv natsіonalnogo virobnitstva, active іnvestitsіynim processes, strіmkim zrostannyam pribut-kіv, sukupnogo popitu; garyachkovim zrostannyam tsіn; Povny Zain tіstyu, suttєvim pіdvischennyam zarobіtnoї pay, knots in nestachі robochoї Sealy, sirovinnih resursіv; rozvitkom credit and fіnansovih operatsіy speculative bіrzhovih Igor toscho. All tse generally produces up "peregrіvu" Economy, posilennya disproportsіynih yavisch, zrostannya peredumov maybutnogo padіnnya, ekonomіchnogo new cycle on-inal round sotsіalno-ekonomіchnogo rozvitku suspіlstva.

Suchasnyj ekonomіchny cycle Got suttєvі vіdmіnnostі. Rozglyanemo osnovnі s them:

exposure The i vpliv Fazi cycle vihodyat for natsіonalnі mezhі;

posilyuєtsya great-power monopolіstichne regulyuvannya tsiklіchnih protsesіv;

pіdvischuєtsya role sotsіalnih aspektіv in mehanіzmі antitsiklіch regulyuvannya-tion;

Fazi pozhvavlennya i pіdnesennya trivalіshі that іntensivnіsh !, i Fazi recession depresії Mensch glibokі that trivalі;

NAUKOVO-tehnіchna revolyutsіya, structural perebudova Economy vplivayut on crisis rate: perіod їh povtoryuvannya skorotivsya spochatku 10-14 h to 5-7 rokіv and sogodnі krizovі yavischa repeat-yutsya 1-2 prophets;

neregulyarnіst Oscillations, rozmitіst between mіzh phases vipadіn-nya okremih phases (pіslya crisis, napriklad, Mauger Zrazy rozpochatis pozhvavlennya);

Tempi pіdnesennya nevisokі - 2-3 vіdsotki on Year in the minds pіdnesennya zalishaєtsya-valued Quantity bezrobіtnih; osnovnі eco-parametric nomіchnі Mensch dinamіchnі, sotsіalno-ekonomіchnі processes vіdbuvayutsya povіlnіshe;

superechlive poєdnannya asinhronnostі that sinhronnostі sotsіal-but-ekonomіchnih protsesіv in rіznih kraїnah;

znizhennya rolі tsiklіchnih faktorіv in dinamіtsі tsіn; gliboka Cree behind, stagnatsіya virobnitstva mozhut suprovodzhuvatisya zrostannyam tsіn, posilennyam іnflyatsіynih protsesіv;

perepletіnnya tsiklіchnih crisis netsiklіchnimi h, i sinhronіzatsіya VZAYEMODIYA ekonomіko-sotsіalnih Oscillations, krizovoe yavisch i natures-but-ekonomіchnih tsiklіv;

chastіshimi i seryoznіshimi for svoїmi naslіdkami stayut netsik-lіchnі Oscillations, sutnіst yakih vivchena nedostatno and otzhe, vіdsutnі efektivnі methodological regulyuvannya їh;

krizovі yavischa ohoplyuyut novі spherical i rіvnі (the Branch Nemat-rіalnogo virobnitstva, іndustrіyu vіdpochinku toscho).

Osoblivostі Suchasnyj ekonomіchnogo cycle potrebuyut udosko-tional mehanіzmіv antikrizovogo regulyuvannya, Poshuk novih, dієvіshih metodіv i vazhelіv pom'yakshennya tsiklіchnih Oscillations.

Vnaslіdok dії rіznomanіtnih group faktorіv in ekonomіchnomu tsiklі dosit smoothly vidіliti OAO All Vier Fazi. Vіdbuvaєtsya postupove zlittya Fazi Creasy s fazoyu depresії and Fazi pozhvavlennya - s F Zoe pіdnesennya, i cycle pochinaє funktsіonuvati yak dvofazny. For pershoї Fazi vlastive skhodzhennya down for Druha - pіdnіmannya.

Materіalnoyu basis of Malih tsiklіv Je processes scho vіdbuva-yutsya in sferі vіdnosin penny. Malі rozmezhovuyutsya penny cyclic crises, scho s povtoryuyutsya Pevnyi zakonomіrno-styami. Pong harakterizuyutsya Especially gostrotoyu that іntensiv-nіstyu - abo nakladayutsya on promislovі crisis, abo toil samostіy-ny rozvitok.

Marx rozrіznyav two Vidi penny crisis: zagalnі that spe-fіchnі.

Zagalnі groshovі Creasy bezposeredno pov'yazanі s virobnichim cycle i Je Elements zagalnih ekonomіchnih crisis.

Spetsifіchnі groshovі Creasy rozgortayutsya on osnovі superechnos-children, vnutrіshno pritamannih groshovіy sistemі, i utvoryuyut Vlas, not dzherelo її samorozvitku. Rozmezhuvannya crisis dosit vіdnosne. Vono potrіbne s point Zora viyavlennya zmіstovnih characteristics kozhnoї s them.

For zmіstom groshovі Creasy Creasy vistupayut yak spherical penny th obіgu i Creasy sphere of credit. Oskіlki penny obіg in znachnіy svoїy chastinі funktsіonuє in viglyadі Credit zasobіv obіgu, the Gros shovі Creasy factuality Je-credit crises groshovoї system. Pong chastіshe zarodzhuyutsya in phases pozhvavlennya i pіdnesennya PROMIS-mal cycle. Pid hour masovogo do updates virobnichih fondіv rіz-to zrostaє popit on credit and groshovі resources. Tse viklikaє Rose-swelling kreditnoї zaborgovanostі of companies, generally produces up zros-tannya bankіvskogo vіdsotka, zbіlshennya masshtabіv fіktivnogo ka-pіtalu, posilyuє іnflyatsіyu that sprichinyuє bіrzhovі potryasіnnya. Rozpochinaєtsya penny crisis. Concrete forms th viyavu "E Creasy platіzhnih zasobіv, pozikovogo kapіtalu that trumpery obіgu.

Yak svіdchit Ekonomichna practice, credit groshovі potryasіnnya vіdbuvalisya 3-4 Rocky pіslya Creasy serednostrokovogo CEC-lu. Pong often Buvaev such іntensivnimi scho pererivali pro-mislovy cycle i generally produces up to yogo rozdvoєnnya. Such was Bula, on-butt crisis in 1907 p., Yak became deprivation through 4 Rocky pіslya zagal-noekonomіchnoї Creasy pp 1900-1903. Povoєnnі Creasy 1953-1954 is the pp 1960-1961. rozpochalisya pіslya Promyslova 1948-1949 crisis that pp 1957-1959. Otzhe, іnterval at 3-4 Rocky takozh MAP Location.

At 80 Rokach - perіod naybіlsh podovzhenoї for all povoєnnu іstorіyu Fazi ekonomіchnogo pіdnesennya - vpliv Malih tsiklіv on rozvitok Gospodarstwa i serednostrokovih tsiklіv zberіgsya s usіma zakonomіrnostyami.

In zahіdnіy ekonomіchnіy lіteraturі іsnuє Dvi point Zora schodo ha rakteru vzaєmozv'yazku serednostrokovih tsiklіv i ekonomіchnih crisis that Malih tsiklіv i penny crisis. Їhnya diferentsіatsіya pov'yazana s rіznimi pіdhodami to rozumіnnya printsipіv formuvannya rinkovoї rіvnovagi. In kєynsіanskіy teorії vihіdnim Je PROVISIONS about those scho torn down in tsiklі vіdtvorennya Je naslіdkom vnutrіshnoї nedosko-nalostі rinkovih mehanіzmіv samoregulyuvannya. W tsogo keynsіantsі roblyat visnovok about those scho groshovі Creasy not samostіynі, Je stink deprivation resulted disproportsіy, SSMSC vinikayut bezposeredno in virobnichіy sferі, zokrema in іnvestitsіynіy strukturі.

Teorіya monetarism gruntuєtsya on so zvanіy monetarnіy teorії cycle. Vaughn vihodit s of scho rinkovy mehanіzm spromozhny samostіyno zabezpechuvati rіvnovagu structural and factor yaky viklikaє destabіlіzatsіyu Sistemi i zumovlyuє tsiklіchnіst Rozvi-ku - tse penny system. Zvіdsi Creasy i depresії rinkovoї ekono-

mіki - Penny yavische. Pong pov'yazanі nasampered s-funktsіonal them torn down, at scho vinikayut sferі credit penny-od-nosin.

Rozbіzhnostі in metodologії keynsіanskogo i monetaristskogo pіdhodіv to rozumіnnya ekonomіchnoї Nature tsiklіv viznachila neodymium-noznachnіst їhnіh rekomendatsіy schodo zdіysnennya antitsiklіchnoї polіtiki.

HEAD chinnikami zmіni structuring suspіlnogo virobnitstva pid vplivom tsiklіchnogo rozvitku processes vіdtvorennya Fazi Je Cree-i communication pozhvavlennya. In krizovіy fazі vіdbuvaєtsya skorochennya obsyagu produktsії, yak vipuskaєtsya, zmenshuyutsya scale kapіtalovkla-day rіzko znizhuєtsya rіven zaynyatostі. All tse znahodit svoє virazhennya on au-Perche, in pripinennі funktsіonuvannya tehnіchno for-starіlih of companies that moral znoshenogo obladnannya; Dru-by-n, in pogіrshennі fіnansovogo will gospodarskih odinits, naychas-tіshe quiet, scho not vitrimali konkurentnoї Borotba through nizku tehnіchnu osnaschenіst. Nepridatnі Vidi that pіdvidi virobnitstva in fazі pіdnesennya zamіnyuyutsya on novі, progresivnіshі.