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Agrarian Ekonomіka of companies - Andrіychuk VG

5.5. Metodichnі pіdhodi to otsіnki i'm forecast peredbankrutnogo of companies

Vpliv negatively on pіdpriєmstvo nekontrolovanih forces zovnіshnogo seredovischa, prorahunki in viborі tactics yogo i strategії, nedostatno efektivnosti management at protsesі of acceptance precisely rіshen mozhut prizvesti to viniknennya tendentsії pogіrshennya fіnansovo-ekonomіchnogo become such pіdpriєmstva i appeared zagrozi yogo bankrutstva. Dwellers zapobіgti bankrutstvu, Wkra vazhlivo correctly otsіnyuvati i prognozuvati peredbankrutny camp pіdpriєmstva, viznachati the criticality Mezhuyev for yakoї zagroza bankrutstva peretvoryuєtsya in Yogo realnіst. Such otsіnochna іnformatsіya daє zmogu vlasnikam i managers svoєchasno priymati system zahodіv schodo rehabilitation Economy of companies i dosyagnennya їh stіykogo fіnansovo-ekonomіchnogo camp. In svіtovіy praktitsі s tsієї metoyu nerіdko vikoristovuyut іndeks Altman viznachennya yakogo bazuєtsya on vikoristannі Cola ekonomіchnih pokaznikіv scho Yea vazhlivimi іndikatorami fіnansovogo will pіdpriєmstva, I yogo Nezalezhnosti stage od zovnіshnіh Jerel fіnansuvannya. For rozrahunku іndeksu Altman (Z) vikoristovuyutsya of cluster i diskrimіnantnogo analіzu. Їh practical realіzatsіya daє zmogu kіlkіsno viznachiti "breaking bar" skin ekonomіchnogo pokaznika in formuvannі іntegralnogo pokaznika - іndeksa Z * 3. Ostannіy ukazuє on the boundary Mezhuyev fіnansovogo ekonomіchnogo will pіdpriєmstva for yakoyu nastupaє real zagroza bankrutstva. In carrying out rezultatі doslіdzhen Altman has been viewed zaproponovana the following model prognozuvannya bankrutstva * 4:

* 3: When {rozrobtsі іndeksu Altman Z Bulo doslіdzheno 66 Promyslova of companies for perіod s 1946 to 1965 Year. For Tsei hour half doslіdzhuvanih zbankrutuvala of companies. Him analіzuvalosya 22 fіnansovo-ekonomіchnih pokazniki, Sereda yakih Bulo vіdіbrano for prognozuvannya bankrutstva deprivation p'yat.}

* 4: Methods {viznachennya that ekonomіchny zmіst ekonomіchnih pokaznikіv for yakimi rozrahovuєtsya іndeks the Z, will visvіtlenі bіlsh detail in the following rozdіlah pіdruchnika.}

Z = 3,3 + 1,0 K1 K2 K3 + 0.6 + 1.4 + 1.2 K4 K5

K1 de - rate pributku on avansovany kapіtal, viznachaєtsya dіlennyam pributku od zvichaynoї dіyalnostі to opodatkuvannya on avansovany kapіtal (assets) pіdpriєmstva;

K2 - vіddacha avansovanogo kapіtalu for trademark produktsієyu, rozrahovuєtsya dіlennyam vartostі tsієї produktsії an amount vkazanogo kapіtalu;

K3 - koefіtsієnt fіnansovogo lіveridzhu, obchislyuєtsya dіlennyam pozichkovogo kapіtalu on Vlasnyi kapіtal pіdpriєmstva;

K4 - the value reіnvestovanogo pributku on odinitsyu avansovanogo kapіtalu, rozrahovuєtsya dіlennyam pributku pіdpriєmstva aimed at zbіlshennya statutory kapіtalu pіdpriєmstva and takozh yogo backup kapіtalu pіdpriєmstva on assets;

K5 - Pete Wagga werewolf Vlasnyi zasobіv in avansovanomu kapіtalі, viznachaєtsya dіlennyam Tsikh zasobіv on avansovany kapіtal pіdpriєmstva. Suma Vlasnyi werewolf zasobіv rozrahovuєtsya vіdnіmannyam od werewolf aktivіv usіh korotkostrokovih (Flow) zobov'yazan pіdpriєmstva.

Koefіtsієnti zvazhuvannya 3.3; 1.0; 0.6; 1.4 i 1.2 vіdobrazhayut "breaking bar" (znachuschіst) s skin pokaznikіv in formuvannі quantities pokaznika Z. Їh absolute value Je ADEQUATE vіdobrazhennyam fіnansovo-ekonomіchnogo become quiet of companies, SSMSC doslіdzhuvalisya Altman for zgadany ranіshe perіod.

The criticality of the Z values ​​іndeksu, rozrahovane Altman for danimi statistichnoї viborki, becoming 2,675. W it zіstavlyaєtsya yogo factual value. Yakscho Z fact. <2.675, in close maybutnomu mozhlive bankrutstvo pіdpriєmstva for minds, scho will not be priynyatі neobhіdnі come in schodo yogo zmіtsnennya fіnansovo-ekonomіchnogo camp. In razі, if Z is a fact. > Z crit. fіnansovo-ekonomіchny camp pіdpriєmstva zadovіlny abo Well mіtsny fallow stage od perevischennya factual values ​​koefіtsієnta Z over yogo criticality value.

Slіd zaznachiti scho zastosuvannya Z kriterіyu, viznachenogo almanac forecast for bankrutstva vіtchiznyanih of companies, agrarian Especially, Bulo used incorrectly, oskіlki koefіtsієnti at fіnansovo-ekonomіchnih pokaznikah rozrahovuvalisya in іnshomu rinkovomu seredovischі i for іnshih tipіv of companies. Tom for vіtchiznyanih doslіdnikіv, ekonomіstіv that menedzherіv won Altman model prognozuvannya bankrutstva Got deprivation pіznavalno-systematically important. Tsіnnoyu nasampered Je technique pobudovi modelі prognozuvannya bankrutstva, yak Mauger Buti vikoristana s urahuvannyam Suchasnyj funktsіonuvannya vіtchiznyanih minds of companies. Yea already zokrema, Pershi sprobi viznachennya іndeksu Z on Agrarian pіdpriєmstvah Ukraine. Prote oderzhanі result Pokey scho toil not practical value oskіlki factuality іnformatsіya fіnansovo pro-agrarian ekonomіchny mill of companies for ostannі prophets not vіdpovіdaє vimogam pobudovi danogo іntegralnogo pokaznika. Aje bіlshіst agrarian boule zbitkovimi of companies, perebuvayuchi on mezhі abo posture mezheyu bankrutstva, and to win a nemozhlivo ob'єktivnu kіlkіsnu characterization stage vplivu ( "crowbars") okremih vazhlivih fіnansovo-ekonomіchnih parametrіv on pokaznik Z. Je pіdstavi vvazhati scho s Povny podolannyam krizovoe yavisch in agribusiness i zmіtsnennyam agrarian Economy of companies sformuєtsya neobhіdna іnformatsіyna base for pobudovi vsebіchno obґruntovanoї modelі prognozuvannya bankrutstva i broad vikoristannya її in praktitsі.