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Modelyuvannya Economy - Vіtlіnsky VV

12.2. Keynesian Model

Klasichna model gave vіdpovіd on the task schodo Poshuk rіvnovagi in ekonomіtsі in the minds povnoї zaynyatostі. Ale yak rіvnovagu know, if ekonomіka harakterizuєtsya Masov bezrobіttyam?

L. Harrіs * 1 zokrema, zaznachaє "Keynes ubachav svoє zavdannya in fact dwellers Show, scho minds rіvnovaga for povnoї zaynyatostі not Je zagalnim vipadkom. Zagalny vipadok - tse rіvnovaga for nayavnostі bezrobіttya and Povny zaynyatіst - deprivation poodinoky vipadok. Dwellers dosyagti Bazhanov become povnoї zaynyatostі, Power zobov'yazana provaditi polіtiku Especially schodo dosyagnennya povnoї zaynyatostі, more automatic and dіyuchі rinkovі Sealy without tsієї pіdtrimki not garantuyut її dosyagnennya ".

* 1: {L. Harris Monetary Theory. - M .: Progress, 1990. - S. 269.}

Vvazhaєtsya scho rinok іsnuє pennies vіdmіnny od oblіgatsіy market analysis. Rozglyadayutsya three Vidi aktivіv: groshі, oblіgatsії, fіzichny kapіtal. Vіdnosna Cena pennies, Virage in oblіgatsіyah - tse rate vіdsotka on oblіgatsіyah. Pripuskaєtsya gіpoteza, scho minds in rіvnovagi rate pributku on fіzichny kapіtal (tobto on nayavny stock іnvestitsіy tovarіv) dorіvnyuє stavtsі dohodіv for oblіgatsіyami.

Otzhe, other vіdmіnnіst modelі - vіdstezhiti, yak penny and credit polіtika vplivaє on virobnitstvo. Napriklad, zrostannya groshovoї masi Shlyakhov Druck novih pennies zmіnyuє proportsії obmіnu mіzh groshima th oblіgatsіyami. Yakscho pennies staє bіlshe then їh zberіgatimut deprivation at znizhennі normalized vіdsotka on oblіgatsії (alternative view aktivіv) in tsomu razі rate pributku takozh guilty znizitis, oskіlki oblіgatsії i fіzichny kapіtal - blizkі rechі.

Rozglyanmo at tsomu vipadku kriterіy maximum pributku schodo kapіtalu (fondіv) for fіksovanogo rіvnya zaynyatostі:

P = p (F (K, L ) - rK,

Besides matimemo Taqiy viraz for neobhіdnoї minds ekstremumu pributku:

oskіlki Then, spravdі, otrimaєmo minds maximum:

(12.10)

tobto a boundary produktivnіst fondіv in vartіsnіy formі dorіvnyuє normі pributku (stavtsі vіdsotka).

Otzhe, znizhennya normalized pributku zgіdno h (12.10) oznachaє znizhennya pributku kapіtalu boundary and boundary oskіlki product spadaє Zi zrostannyam K, then znizhennya normalized pributku s neobhіdnіstyu peredbachaє zbіlshennya popitu on іnvestitsіynі goods, vіdtak, i for goods zagalom. Zvіdsi, vіdstezhivshi all cause-naslіdkovy lantsyuzhok, otrimaєmo scho vіdnosno slim zbіlshennya groshovoї masi spriyaє zrostannyu popitu for goods vіdpovіdno to zrostannya Offers tovarіv, tobto to zrostannya kіntsevogo product.

Rozglyanmo bіlsh detail rinok pratsі in modelі Keynes. Nagadaєmo, scho in klasichnіy modelі rіvnovaga came for povnoї zaynyatostі, i rіvnovazhne values ​​realnoї zarobіtnoї pay viznachalosya s minds:

.

at tsomu rіvnovazhny kіntsevy product

Y 0 = F (K, L 0),

de L 0 - chiselnіst pratsіvnikіv for povnoї zaynyatostі minds.

Pripustimo scho s yakihos popit E causes (at produktsіyu) viyavivsya Mensch for propozitsіyu Y 0 for povnoї zaynyatostі minds.

In tsomu vipadku, yak vvazhav Keynes, factuality virobleny Y dorіvnyuvatime popitu kіntsevy product Y = E, tobto Y <Y 0.

Tse negayno vpline on rinok robochoї Sealy, oskіlki for Rasht rіvnih minds Mensch obsyag products can vigotoviti for menshoї chiselnostі pratsіvnikіv, tobto L <L 0.

Otzhe, Yakscho in klasichnіy modelі real zarobіtna board viznachala chiselnіst zaynyatih in modelі Keynes popit for goods E viznachaє rіven zaynyatostі L, at tsomu L 0 - L i Je tim rіvnem bezrobіttya, yaky diktuєtsya Rink pennies i tovarіv.

Rozgadka here at tіm scho virobniki not spromozhnі prodatsya stіlki, skіlki stink pragnut and viroblyayut i prodayutsya deprivation in obsyazі popitu. Tom curve popitu on robochem force KOTRA vivodilasya for gіpotezi maksimіzatsії pributku not Mauger Buti vikoristana. Otzhe, osnovnі novatsії modelі Keynes porіvnyano s klasichnoyu Modell polyagayut in fact, scho:

1) rіvnovaga on market analysis tovarіv dosyagaєtsya for rіvnostі prognozovanogo popitu i faktichnoї Offers;

2) factual popit on robochem force viznachaєtsya in spіvvіdnoshennі s factual zapituvanim product and otzhe, rіvnovaga on market analysis robochoї Sealy Mauger dosyagatis todі, if rinok tovarіv is staying at rіvnovazі.

Model Keynes zapisuєtsya viglyadі in Lq (r) - popit on oblіgatsії fallow od vіdsotka rates.

Rinok robochoї Seeley:

(12.11)

Rinok pennies:

(12.12)

(12.13)

Rinok tovarіv:

(12.14)

Y = E. (12.15)

Rozglyanmo rіvnovagu tovarіv on market analysis, uzyavshi, napriklad, gіpotezu scho zalezhnostі C (Y), I (r ) Je lіnіynimi, tobto popit on spozhivchі Flea zrostaє lіnіyno Zi zrostannyam Offers tovarіv:

C (Y) = a + bY , a> 0,

0 <b <1,

a popit on іnvestitsіynі Flea lіnіyno spadaє Zi zrostannyam normalized vіdsotka:

I (r) = d - f (r),

D> 0, f> 0.

Todі Umov rіvnovagi (12.15) viglyadatime:

Y G = a + bY G + d - f (r),

zvіdsi otrimaєmo:

(12.16)

tobto curve rіvnovagi tovarіv on market analysis (curve IS) Je-lіnіyno spadnoyu funktsієyu r i, otzhe for fіksovanogo value of r Got єdine rіvnovazhne values YG (r).

Rozglyanmo teper rіvnovagu on market analysis pennies. Pripustimo scho popit on oblіgatsії Lq (r) lіnіyno deposits od r:

Lq (r) = k - jr ,

Umov rіvnovagi (12.13) at tsomu zalishaєtsya in viglyadі:

MS = MD = LpYM + h - jr,

abo (12.17)

tobto curve rіvnovagi pennies on market analysis (LM) Je INCREASING lіnіynoyu funktsієyu r, otzhe for fіksovanogo r maєmo єdine rіvnovazhne values YM (r).

Zagalna rіvnovaga on market analysis pennies i tovarіv dosyagaєtsya of minds:

;

zaznachimo scho rіvnovagi point (Y 0, r 0) (point peretinu lіnіy IS i LM) - єdina. Zagalna rіvnovaga on Rink pennies i tovarіv uniquely viznachaє factuality needful in robochіy silі: Y 0 = F (K, L 0).

Zagalna vstanovlennya rіvnovagi scheme shown in Fig. 12.3.

Fig. 12.3

In Persha kvadrantі here zobrazhenі lіnії IS, LM, in the fourth kvadrantі - virobnicha funktsіya Economy (WF) yak funktsіya L, from third kvadrantі - krivі popitu i Offers on robochem force. Yak mozhna pobachiti, prichinnі zv'yazki spryamovanі od rinkіv tovarіv i pennies to market analysis via the VF robochoї Seeley and otzhe, rinok pratsі not Je viznachalnim.

Yakscho klasichna model peredbachaє (postulyuє) automaticity tendentsіyu schodo povnoї zaynyatostі, then modelі Keynes Absent such. Spravdі, let them rіvnovaga on market analysis for pratsі vstanovilasya minds povnoї zaynyatostі on rіvnі L 0 (L 0 <L 0). Todі for dwellers dosyagti povnoї zaynyatostі L 0, Wanted zbіlshiti Key infrastructure produktsії to obsyagіv Y 0 (Y 0 = F (K, L 0)), scho, in its Cherga, vimagaє zmіstiti lіnіyu rіvnovagi trumpery Rinku s pozitsії LM 0 in pozitsіyu LM 0. Yak bachimo h (12.17), TAKE zmіschennya mozhna zabezpechiti for ekzogenno zadanoї Offers pennies i fіksovanih koefіtsієntіv k, h deprivation through tsіn p znizhennya against zhodnogo mehanіzmu znizhennya tsіn for fіksovanoї zarobіtnoї pay rate w 0 at modelі Keynes no mortgage. Otzhe for transition to povnoї zaynyatostі potrіbna spetsіalna Derzhavna polіtika.

Yakscho lіnіya LM nelіnіyna one okrіm tsogo in okolі point r 0 tsya lіnіya Got horizontal dіlyanku then vinikaє lіkvіdna pastka. For vkazanoї FORMS LM іsnuє rіvnovaga on fіnansovomu Rinku Square od znizhennya tsіn, pov'yazanogo s nadmіrnoyu propozitsієyu product Y 0 i robochoї Sealy L 0.

Mozhlivoyu Je taka osoblivіst th: rіven planovanih vitrat E buvaє nastіlki temple, scho not Mauger virobnitstvo Y dosyagti Yogo. Tse vіdbuvaєtsya todі, if point peretinu IS i LM Got vіd'єmne norm value vіdsotka r 0.

Modifіkatsієyu pіdhodu Keynes Je monetaristsky analіz Economy (rozvinuty on the cob 70 rokіv XX stolіttya M. Frіdmenom). In chomu Well polyagaє sutnіst vіdmіnnostey pіdhodіv Keynes i Frіdmena? Dear Keynes, scho naybіlsh digit vpliv on zmіnu mainly makroekonomіchnih pokaznikіv spravlyaє popit on goods and on Dumka Frіdmena, smut - tse control propozitsієyu pennies. Monetarists perekonanі takozh in fact, scho speculative popit on groshі not deposits od vіdsotka rates that generally produces zbіlshennya Offers pennies to zrostannya tsіn instead obsyagіv virobnitstva, yak tse viplivalo b s modelі Keynes. For їh tverdzhennyami, penny-Credit polіtika not Mauger suttєvo vplinuti in dovgotermіnovomu planі on real obsyag virobnitstva that camp bezrobіttya, Hoca in korotkotermіnovomu - tse Yea mozhlivim.

Yak svіdchit dosvіd Ukraine that іnshih kraїn, іnkoli spravdzhuєtsya pіdhіd Keynes and іnkoli - Frіdmena: nevisokogo rіvnya i kontrolovana powers іnflyatsіya - dіє keynsіansky pіdhіd; gіperіnflyatsіya i Slabko control powers - monetaristsky pіdhіd.