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Modelyuvannya Economy - Vіtlіnsky VV

15.2. Analіz Rinku pennies

Rinok pennies - tse rinok natsіonalnoї currency, tobto rinok deprivation dolarіv chi deprivation UAH. W іnshogo side, іsnuvannya fіnansovogo market analysis for MDM is staying in obіgu (yak goods) low rіznih іnstrumentіv - groshі, rіznomanіtnі tsіnnі Papero that їhnі pohіdnі (napriklad optsіoni, f'yuchersi, swaps), pevnі goods (napriklad gold, platinum), sumnіvіv schodo viznachennya basic market analysis is not guilty viklikati.

Tom vazhlivo zrozumіti scho rinok makroekonomіchny pennies - tse reduktsіya (sproschennya) fіnansovogo (bagatokomponentnogo) market analysis to dvokomponentnogo on Money Does perebuvayut obіgu at (yak goods) groshі that deyaky types predstavnik tsіnnih paperіv (yak Typically, Tse Derzhavna oblіgatsіya - short-chi dovgotermіnova ).

Tsya model harakterizuє osnovnі makroekonomіchnі efekta fіnansovogo th Rinku Rinku dіstala titles pennies.

Nayposlіdovnіshe such reduktsіya realіzovana in kontseptsії portfolio pіdhodu J. Tobіna, Cauterets proіlyustruєmo yak reduktsіyu trikomponentnogo fіnansovogo market analysis to dvokomponentnogo. Tsey pіdhіd ґruntuєtsya on pobudovі rіvnyan scho opisuyut povedіnku agregovanih kreditorіv i pozichalnikіv fіnansovomu on market analysis, portfolio SSMSC formuyut aktivіv vіdpovіdno to svoїh prіoritetіv. Logіka mіrkuvannya bazuєtsya to ensure scho n -component fіnansovy rinok Mauger Buti Pevnyi rank given (redukovano) to trikomponentnogo. Dali vіdbuvaєtsya yogo reduktsіya dvokomponentnogo to market analysis, scho skladaєtsya s pennies that oblіgatsіy.

Pripustimo, scho on makrorіvnі portfolio agregovanogo іnvestora skladaєtsya s troh aktivіv (component) in nomіnalnomu virazhennі: pennies the M, B i oblіgatsіy vartostі fіzichnogo kapіtalu PKK. Two ostannіh not penny, assets Je abo types predstavnikami pіdmnozhini vіdnosno odnorіdnih aktivіv, tobto aktivіv іz postіynimi characteristics (dohіdnіstyu, perіodom obіgu, tsіnoyu toscho) abo Pevnyi rank pobudovanih agregatіv real (fіzichnih) aktivіv. Cutaneous s aktivіv (Portfolio component) vіdpovіdaє its rate dohіdnostі: - p, r - p, rk, Vlasnyi deflyatsіya, real rates vіdsotka that efektivnіst kapіtalu. Groshі rozglyadatimemo yak asset yaky bring nulovy dohіd, Yakscho vіdsutnya іnflyatsіya, i vіd'єmny dohіd in perіod іnflyatsії. Dwellers zberegti Sens dohіdnostі yak dodatnoї quantities dohіdnіst pennies vimіryuєtsya їh podorozhchannyam scho sposterіgaєtsya in perіodi deflyatsії.

Bet efektivnostі kapіtalu - tse vartіst boundary Product kapіtalu, zіstavlena s odinitseyu vartostі fіzichnogo kapіtalu, tobto

Іntegrovany popit for dermal s aktivіv podaєtsya vіdpovіdno such funktsіyami: L (•), J ( •), N (•), SSMSC neperervnimi Yea i diferentsіyovanimi for cutaneous argument funktsіyami real income Y, dohіdnostі skin asset i sukupnogo bagatstva A.

Otzhe, popit on assets in real tsіnah viznachaєtsya such rank:

de Li, Ji, Ni, i = 1, ..., 5 Je vіdpovіdnimi chastkovimi pohіdnimi on Persha t i. e., p'yatomu arguments.

Uvedenі vische funktsії strukturuyut popit on assets, scho to incoming trikomponentnogo portfolio agregovanogo іnvestora through signs reaktsії popitu on zmіnu skin od s aktivіv fallow for Change argumentіv funktsіy popitu. Zokrema, zrostannya income zbіlshuє popit on groshі (transaktsіyny popit), ale not Tyagny behind him specifically for Change schodo popitu on kapіtal chi oblіgatsії. Otzhe, L 1> 0, and the signs pohіdnih J 1, N 1 not viznachenі, Yakscho not nakladati dodatkovih minds on vіdpovіdnі funktsії popitu. Pripuskayutsya gіpotezi scho zbіlshennya dohіdnostі skin asset Veda to zrostannya popitu on Danian asset and otzhe, i to skorochennya popitu on alternativnі assets. Dodatkova odinitsya bagatstva rozpodіlyaєtsya povnіstyu on OAO All portfolio.

Popit on assets "throughout schіlny" tobto toil rіvnostі Location:

Pripustimo scho oblіgatsії that fіzichny kapіtal povnіstyu vzaєmozamіnnі and їhnі normalized dohіdnostі rіvnі mіzh themselves (r - p = rk). For such minds vazhko rozrіzniti popit okremo on Leather z them. Pripustimo takozh, scho іsnuє odnorіdny popit on tsіnnі Paper the [J (•) + N ( •)]. Nekhay derzhavnі oblіgatsії be representative predstavnikom such spіlnogo popitu on OAO All tsіnnі Papero. Todі, oskіlki Private bagatstvo viznachaєtsya s minds rіvnovagi fіnansovogo market analysis:

the zgіdno іz law Valrasa trikomponentny fіnansovy rinok mozhna viraziti through spіvvіdnoshennya popitu i Offers pennies. Formally, zvichayno, groshі that oblіgatsії Je rіvnopravnimi, ale, yak usually doslіdzhuєtsya rinok pennies, pennies oskіlki propozitsіya - kontrolovana zmіnna, Oscillations yakoї modelyuє monetary polіtiku central bank.

Zgіdno s dodatkovimi gіpotezami popit on groshі deposits od so Ranks of spreads, rіznitsі mіzh dohіdnіstyu pennies i oblіgatsіy, tobto:

otzhe, popit on groshі deposits od rates nomіnalnogo vіdsotka r.

So rank, rіvnovagu on market analysis fіnansіv mozhna taxes through spіvvіdnoshennya mіzh popitom on groshі in real virazhennі:

that їh propozitsієyu -

.

tobto rіvnyannyam rіvnovagi Rinku pennies:

(15.6)

MDM can be grafіchno taxes (Fig. 15.1).

Fig. 15.1. Rіvnovaga pennies on market analysis

In Pevnyi rozumіnnі rіvnyannya (15.6) daє іnformatsіyu about the camp fіnansovogo market analysis, Institution deprivation to spіvvіdnoshennya popitu i Offers pennies. Here "Cena pennies" rozumієtsya in keynsіanskomu traktuvannі, tobto yak alternativnі vitrati od volodіnnya bagatstvom in groshovіy formі, chi yak rate nomіnalnogo vіdsot- ka r. Propozitsіya pennies in (15.6) - tse zmіna upravlіnnya, Hoca Mauger Buti th deyakoyu funktsієyu, fallow od vіdsotka rates.

In provedennі monetarnoї polіtiki central bank vikoristovuє rіznі іnstrumenti regulyuvannya oblіkovoї rate normalization rezervuvannya, operatsії on vіlnomu Rinku s Reigning Borg toscho. OAO All tsі іnstrumenti groshovoї polіtiki dozvolyayut central bank upravlyati propozitsієyu pennies, Hoch pid control is staying bezposerednіm yogo deprivation since been called to come penny base.

In rinkovіy ekonomіtsі power (the central bank) Mauger vplivati ​​on popit pennies deprivation oposeredkovano. Central bank rate regulyuє vіdsotka and through neї - rіven sukupnogo income Cauterets Je chutlivim schodo tsіni loan. Napriklad, rate mіzh- bankіvskih kreditіv duzhe chutliva to zmіni oblіkovoї rate chi rate Refinancing Loans (vartostі kreditіv central bank). On rіven sukupnogo income vplivaє penny masa, KOTRA formuє obsyag pozichkovih zasobіv.

Vpliv monetarnoї polіtiki on ekonomіku viznachaєtsya fallow od deyakih aprіorі orієntirіv tasks, so the title of nomіnalnih yakorіv, SSMSC rozglyanemo Dali.

Zaznachimo scho penny popit L (Y, r, A) yak funktsіya rates vіdsotka (Quest dohodіv bagatstva i) Got suttєvo nelіnіyny character. For Visoko bet value vіdsotka groshі th oblіgatsії not practical Je vzaєmozamіnnimi. Tom Penny popit vіdnosno small, and reaktsіya trumpery popitu on zmіnu vіdsotka nablizhaєtsya rates to zero (L 2> 0).

Mozhna tverditi scho popit on groshі іsnuє, practical, yak transaktsіyny popit scho deposits deprivation od obsyagu land.

In tsomu razі rіvnyannyam kіlkostі pennies bude:

de M - trumpery value of popitu; n - shvidkіst obіgu pennies; P - the GDP deflator; Y - GDP in real virazhennі.

For Malih bet value vіdsotka, navpaki, oblіgatsії i groshі (gotіvka) will melt dosit blizkimi substitutes, otzhe, popit on groshі staє dosit chutlivim to zmіni rates vіdsotka (L 2 ®?).

Tsey vipadok vіdomy in lіteraturі yak "penny pastka" Keynes Hoca on praktitsі not sposterіgavsya.

Zagalom rіvnyan system (15.1) that (15.6) Mauger Buti viznachenoyu, zokrema for fіksovanogo rіvnya realnoї Offers pennies , Just past tobto about nakopichennya private bagatstva in formі Reigning oblіgatsіy. Tse daє mozhlivіst obchisliti coordinates rіvnovagi real i trumpery rinkіv time in rezultatі rozv'yazku Sistemi rіvnyan:

(15.7)

Rozv'yazok system in coordinates "dohіd-vіdsotok" Yea i іsnuє єdinim:

(15.8)

Reaktsії makroekonomіki on zmіnu parametrіv system napriklad, efekta stimulyuyuchoї budget and podatkovoї polіtiki ¶ G> 0, we can obchisliti s rozv'yazku takoї system:

(15.9)

KOTRA otrimana diferentsіyuvannyam rіvnyan (15.7). Zgіdno s minds sformulovanimi for rіvnyan rіvnovagi real i trumpery rinkіv, viznachnik the system (15.9) zavzhdi Je dodatnim, otzhe, Got єdiny netrivіalny rozv'yazok system. Nenulovy vector multiplіkatorіv Uriadovy vitrat viznachaє naslіdki zastosuvannya pevnoї fіskalnoї polіtiki.

Analogіchno obchislyuyutsya reaktsії makroekonomіki on monetary polіtiku ¶ m, and takozh on zmіnu іnshih parametrіv system.