home Other disciplines books Mіzhnarodnі rozrahunki that valyutnі operatsії - Savluk M.І.

Mіzhnarodnі rozrahunki that valyutnі operatsії - Savluk M.І.

15.2. Fundamental analіz

15.2.1. Sutnіst that osoblivostі fundamental analіzu mіzhnarodnogo foreign exchange market. Widi ekonomіchnih іndikatorіv

Pogliblennya іntegratsіynih protsesіv svіtovomu on the foreign exchange market, uskladnennya structure is the іnstrumentіv through SSMSC zdіysnyuєtsya yogo funktsіonuvannya, vimagaє od operatorіv tsogo market analysis to complex pіdhodu otsіnyuvannya mainly chinnikіv scho vplivayut on kursoutvorennya i zmіnu napryamkіv fіnansovih potokіv.

Pid Complex pіdhodom slіd rozumіti vsebіchny analіz mainly chinnikіv, SSMSC vplivayut the camp market analysis. Je two globalnі pіdhodi to otsіnyuvannya situatsії on market analysis - fundamental analіz that tehnіchny analіz. In tsomu pіdrozdіlі zupinimomos on fundamental analіzі.

Fundamental analіz have wide rozumіnnі - tse prognozuvannya zmіni become foreign exchange market on the main pіdstavі analіzu pokaznikіv ekonomіchnogo rozvitku kraїn, fіnansovih pokaznikіv, otsіnyuvannya polіtichnih podіy, krizovoe yavisch, natural that ekologіchnih minds povedіnki spozhivachіv toscho.

The subject of fundamental analіzu Je vivchennya parametrіv popitu that Offers Pevnyi ob'єkta (Tse Mauger Buti real goods, currency, aktsії toscho) s metoyu viznachennya yogo "dіysnoї" tsіni. "Dіysna" Cena potіm porіvnyuєtsya s factual precisely rinkovoyu tsіnoyu. On osnovі tsogo porіvnyannya roblyatsya visnovki that forecasting schodo maybutnoї zmіni tsіni. Yakscho rinkova Cena Vishcha for "dіysnu" tobto otsіnka ob'єkta zavischena, in close maybutnomu slіd ochіkuvati korektsії rinkovoї tsіni in bіk zmenshennya and what goods require prodavatsya. Yakscho Well rinkova Cena nizhcha for "dіysnu" that ob'єkt nedootsіneny i mozhna ochіkuvati yogo podorozhchannya and to buy goods maintained upstream, nіzh prodatsya.

Yakscho vіdobraziti zmіnu Monetary kursіv yak funktsіyu od hour, grafіk bude mother viglyad pilopodіbnoї krivoї, yak yavlyaє him rіznomanіtnih nakladenih synthesis of one-on-one tsiklіchnih protsesіv rіznoї trivalostі (Fig. 15.2). Sutnіst fundamental analіzu polyagaє have proper viznachennі podalshoї tendentsії rozvitku podіy on the foreign exchange market through an integrated otsіnyuvannya ekonomіchnogo rozvitku yak provіdnih kraїn svitu so i bezposeredno Kraina, currency yakoї mi namagaєmos otsіniti.

Fig. 15.2. Dinamіka kursіv GDP / USD, DEM / USD, JPY / USD for ostannє desyatirіchchya (for danimi іnformatsіynoї Sistemi TENFORE)

Ale Yakscho bude dealer samostіyno doslіdzhuvati napryamki ekonomіchnogo rozvitku Kraina that її Location in Suchasnyj ekonomіchnomu svіtі, at Demba zovsіm not bude pratsyuvati hour at the market FOREX. Tom Yomou brought koristuvatisya otsіnkami ekspertіv, analіtikіv, fahіvtsіv in tsіy sferі. Prote Look fahіvtsіv mozhut suttєvo rіznitisya in otsіntsі tієї samoї podії. Before dealer postaє power who are dovіryati s, s Aje nіhto them bere on itself yuridichnoї vіdpovіdalnostі for pravilnіst svoїh prognozіv. Tom dealer nerіdko brought samostіyno vіdstezhuvati camp for Economy makroekonomіchnimi pokaznikami that viznachati chinniki, SSMSC mozhut vplinuti on the exchange rate.

Osnovnі fundamentalnі chinniki shaping can Buti podіlenі on Vier osnovnі groups: ekonomіchnі, fіnansovі, polіtichnі, krizovі.

Ekonomіchnі chinniki znahodyat svіy manifested in ekonomіchnih pokaznikah Economy will tієї chi іnshoї Kraina.

Ekonomіchnі pokazniki (іndikatori) toil chіtko viznacheny calendar publіkatsії in іnformatsіyno-fіnansovih systems (tab. 15.1). Takі globalnі ekonomіchnі kalendarі oprilyudnennya ekonomіchnih іndikatorіv mіstyat osnovnі parametric rozvitku Promyslova rozvinutih kraїn svitu. Pong vlyuchayut date that hour publіkatsії ekonomіchnih іndikatorіv, їh titles, perіod for yaky nadaєtsya іnformatsіya, ostannє іndikatora values, forecast values ​​on the following perіod that serednє values.

table 15.1

Global Economic Calendar *

* Danі navedenі the principle of the Global ekonomіchnogo calendar, scho nadaєtsya MMS International, c. 7756, 7757, 7758 Sistemi Telerate.

On vіdmіnu od ekonomіchnih polіtichnі chinniki not toil chіtkoї viznachenostі ni have viglyadі steel іndikatorіv, ni have chasі oprilyudnennya Informácie. Їh analіz zdіysnyuєtsya at regular vіdstezhuvannya polіtichnoї situatsії. Krіm of slіd vrahovuvati spetsifіku Kraina, analіz povedіnki currency yakoї mi zdіysnyuєmo. Thus, in line Spoluchenih States prezidentskih viborіv chіtko viznachenі, i tsya Podiya not Got digit vplivu tendentsії on the foreign exchange market. In іnshih kraїnah, napriklad in Іtalії, Uryadov Mensch stabіlnі, i peredbachiti polіtichnu situatsіyu on trivalu perspective dosit smoothly. Tom polіtichnі zmіni in such kraїnah mozhut mother suttєvy vpliv on povedіnku currency tsієї Kraina.

Fіnansovі chinniki Pevnyi mіroyu Je neperedbachuvanimi, zagadkovimi. The percentage polіtika Central bankіv, establishing norms novih rezervuvannya, polіtika vіdkritomu Act reasonably on time market analysis to oprilyudnennya perebuvayut in secrecy viglyadі i toil, zazvichay, neochіkuvany efekt, nezvazhayuchi to those scho rinok zavzhdi Saw stitches for povedіnkoyu Central bankіv i namagaєtsya її peredbachiti.

Naybіlshoyu skladnіstyu pid hour otsіnyuvannya krizovoe chinnikіv Je їh neperedbachuvanіst i masshtabnіst vplivu. So, fіnansova crisis, 1998. Typhoon prokotilasya on ekonomіkah bagatoh kraїn svitu. Navіt UKRAINE, nezvazhayuchi on Neznachny іntegratsіyu in svіtovu fіnansovu system vіdchula її vazhky kick oposeredkovano through Rosіyu.

In svіtі sklalasya tsіla transnatsіonalna іndustrіya іnformatsіynih that rating poslug, yak bazuєtsya on vsesvіtno іntegrovanih іnformatsіynih trammel for Relief yakih at whether yakіy chastinі svitu mozhna proanalіzuvati mill foreign exchange market i vikonati forecast schodo maybutnіh tendentsіy in rusі Monetary kursіv. Іnformatsіya about nayvazhlivіshі ekonomіchnі іndikatori publіkuєtsya such vsesvіtno vіdomih newspapers, yak The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, in ekonomіchnih journals napriklad in Business Week. Ekonomіchnu іnformatsіyu in real rezhimі hour mozhna otrimati zavdyaki such іnformatsіyno-fіnansovim systems, yak Telerate, Reuters, Knight-Ridder, Bloomberg. Danі agentsії nadayut uzagalnenu іnformatsіyu yak, so i Vlasnyi.

Oskіlki іndustrіya poshirennya Informácie іsnuє vzhe Pevnyi hour svіtovomu market analysis, sogodnі sklalasya Pevnyi unіfіkovana form poshirennya danih, scho Got titles, yak Bulo zaznacheno vische, ekonomіchnih іndikatorіv (tab. 15.2). For character Informácie system ekonomіchnih іndikatorіv mozhna podіliti osnovnі into three blocks: Table 15.2

OSNOVNІ EKONOMІCHNІ POKAZNIKI (USA) (Klasifіkatsіya Nada for rinkovim value)

Prodovzhennya Table. 15.2

Zakіnchennya Table. 15.2

by au-Perche, the global block pokaznikіv, SSMSC vіdobrazhayut Suchasnyj camp Economy danoї Kraina in tsіlomu (GDP - Gross vnutrіshnіy product, GNP - Gross natsіonalny product, Unemployment - rіven bezrobіttya, Implicit Deflator - іndeks іnflyatsії, Price Index - іndeks tsіn);

Alternatively, ekonomіchnі pokazniki, SSMSC vіdobrazhayut ninіshnіy camp pevnoї the Branch Economy Kraina abo spherical dіyalnostі (Retail Sales - rіven rozdrіbnogo sale, Retail Ex Auto - rіven rozdrіbnogo sale without urahuvannya car sales, Housing Starts - cob budіvnitstva novih budinkіv, Non-Farm Production - obsyag virobnitstva (without urahuvannya sіlskogo Gospodarstwa), New Home sales, Existing Home sales - rіven sale novih that vzhe іsnuyuchih budinkіv, vіdpovіdno, Construction Spending - vitrati on budіvnitstvo, Business Inventories - virobnichі i tovarnі reserves, Consumer Credit - rіven spozhivchogo kredituvannya);

in tretє, tse іndikatori sotsіalno-psihologіchnogo i'm spozhivachіv population danoї Kraina in tsіlomu (NAPM - іndeks dіlovoї aktivnostі Natsіonalnoї asotsіatsії menedzherіv s sale, Consumer Confidence - spozhivatska smіlivіst, gotovnіst kupuvati).

For perіodichnіstyu publіkatsії іndikatori mozhna podіliti on kvartalnі, mіsyachnі that Zi-of-line oprilyudnennya less then mіsyatsya. Zagalnoyu tendentsієyu Je - denote the global bіlsh vistupaє іndikator, team trivalіshoyu Je perіodichnіst yogo publіkatsії. The I tse zrozumіlo, oskіlki denote masshtabnіshim іndikator Yea, team bіlshy obsyag Informácie i for trivalіshy perіod neobhіdno uzagalniti.