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International markets and foreign exchange operations - Savluk M.І.

15.2. Fundamental analysis

15.2.1. Sutnost and particularities of the fundamental analysis of the international currency market. See Economic Indicators

Absorption of integrated processes on the global currency market, accelerated structure of tools, through the use of the same functions, the integrated operator of the integrated flow of prices and the main flow

Pіd a comprehensive pіdhodom slіd rozumіti all-day analysis of the main officials, yakі pour into the market. Є two global approaches to assessing the situation on the market - a fundamental analysis and a technical analysis. At tsomu pidrozdіlі zupinimos on fundamental analysis.

Fundamental analysis of widespread understanding - with a view to forecasting the future foreign exchange market for financial analysis of the main indicators of economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, financial indicators, the average number of months of living, financial problems, and the number of living hours.

The subject of a fundamental analysis is the параметр vivchenny parameter ’in the population of that propositional singular object (which can be used to get real goods, currency, and discounts) with the help of a signed« й сно ї ї ц ц price. "Дійсна" the price is more than the actual flow rate. On the basis of all this, the basics and the forecasts of Maybutni Zmini are to work. Yakshcho rinkova price of food for "business", because the assessment of the object is envied, then in the near Maybut, the next is the correct price at the change, and the goods need to be sold. As a matter of fact, the price is lower for "business", then the object of underestimation is possible, it is possible to buy the goods more easily, to sell them.

As a rule, you can imagine the currency exchange rates as a function at any time, the graph is like a saw-eye curve, and it is a synthesis of different overlays one on one cyclic processes of different trials (Fig. 15.2). The essence of the fundamental analysis of the pole for the correct and furthest trend of the development of the currency market through a comprehensive assessment of the economic development of the most important countries, so that the currency is clear.

Dynamics of GDP / USD, DEM / USD, JPY / USD for the remaining ten

Fig. 15.2. Dynamics of GDP / USD, DEM / USD, JPY / USD for the remaining ten decimal places (for information from the TENFORE information system)

Ale Yakshcho dealer will be able to independently reach the right level of economic development of the country and the third in the most current economic situation, but you will not have to wait a minute to get to the FOREX market. That’s what you need to know about evaluations of experts, analysts, experts in the sphere of affairs. You can look at the fakhivtsi so that they can become different in the evaluation of self-sustainability. Before the dealer, there is no need to take responsibility for anyone with whom they are to be trusted, nor do they take legal responsibility for the correctness of their forecasts. It is difficult for such a dealer to self-confidently identify the economy for the macro-economic indicators and the officials who can be included in the exchange rate.

The main fundamental officials can be divided into the four main groups: economic, financial, political, crisis.

Economical officials know the manifestation in economic indicators I will become the economy of the country.

Economic indicators (indicators) can be clearly identified in the publication calendar in information and financial systems (Table 15.1). Such global economical calendars are available for economic indicators as well as the main parameters for the development of industrial development of the country. It’s up to me to include the date and time of the publication of economic indicators, I’ll name it, the period, for some information, the remaining value of the indicator, the forecast value for the current period and the average.

Table 15.1

Global Economic Calendar *

Date

GMT

CTRY

Release

For

Forecast

Median

last

Dec 01

5 a.m.

Jpn

Auto sales

Nov

–7.7% A

N / a

–11.3%

Dec 01

7 a.m.

Swi

Federal CPI, M / M

Nov

–0.1% A

0.2%

0.1%

Dec 01

7:30 a.m.

US

Import Prices M / M

OCT

0.1% A

0.1%

-1.1%

* A tribute to the principle of the Global Economic Calendar, which is hoped for by MMS International, c. 7756, 7757, 7758 Telerate systems.

On the official website, there is no need for clear official identification in the forensic indicators, but at the most common information. Їх analysis zdіjsnyuєtsya through regularly vіdstezhuvannya polіtichno і situatsіі. In addition, due to the specificity of the territory, the analysis of the currency and the like. So, in the United States of America, there are lines of presidential vibrations that are clearly identified, and that the price is not significant for the trend of the foreign exchange market. In foreign countries, for example, in Italy, arrange less stability, and transfer the political situation to the trial, the prospect is easy to complete. In addition to such political reserves in such countries, mothers may be inundated with the behavior of the currency of the country.

Officials of the singing world є neperedbachuvanimi, mysterious. The percentage policy of central banks, the establishment of new reserve rules, the policy for a safe market until the moment of the third party, secretly watch the video and speak, speak, disregard the central bank, and pay attention to the bank.

The most probable complexity is the hour of evaluation of critical officers неп неп неп неп неп еред еред еред масштаб масштаб масштаб масштаб масштаб вп вп вп. So, the financial crisis of 1998 p. typhoon raced across the economy bagatokh krask svіtu. Navigate Ukraine, independent of insignificant integration with the financial system of Russia, an important strike has been mediated through Russia.

The country has developed a multinational and international information and rating service, so that it can be based on all-inclusive and integrated information, for which we can have a better exchange rate. Information about economic and economic indicators is available in all kinds of newspapers, such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, in economic magazines, for example at Business Week. In order to save information in the real time mode, it’s possible to wither away such information-financial systems as Telerate, Reuters, Knight-Ridder, Bloomberg. Tribute to agendas is informal, so I know.

Oskilka Industry is a wider informational period at the same time on the New Year’s Market, since the singing season is unified, the form of the extended tribute is unclear, I’ll name it, it’s indicated in the text box, there are 15 indicators. The nature of the information system of economic indicators can be divided into three main blocks: Table 15.2

BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS (USA) (Classification is given for the market value)

Economic indexes and figures

Economic indicators and indexes

Odinitsya vimіru

Periodicity of Publications

Rinkove value

REAL GDP

Real gross domestic product

%

Quarter

Duj temple

PAYROLLS

Kіlkіst hinged working mіsts

yew.

Month

Duj temple

UNEMPLOYMENT

Rivne of unemployment

%

Month

Duj temple

International trade

International Trade

billion dollars

Month

Temple

Implicit deflator

Crazy Deflator (Index-Index of Inflation)

%

Quarter

Temple

Napm

National association manager for sale (Yandex business activity)

%

Month

Temple

PPI Producer Prices Producer Prices Y / Y Ex food energy

Index of virological prices Tsini virobnik Zmіnі prіn Rіk / Rіk Without urakhuvannya products, energy

%

Month

Temple

Production table 15.2

Economic indexes and figures

Economic indicators and indexes

Odinitsya vimіru

Periodicity of Publications

Rinkove value

CPI Consumer Prices Consumer Prices Y / Y Ex food energy

Спндекс сп сп спндекс Сп Сп Сп Сп Сп Сп ож Сп ожож ожож ожож ож Без ож Без ожож ож Без Без

%

Month

Temple

Retail Sales Retail Ex Auto

Riven rozdrіbnogo sale Riven rozdrіbnogo sale without urahuvannya car sale

%

Month

Temple

Real earnings

Real pay

%

Month

Temple

Wholesale trade

Wholesale trade

%

Month

Middle - Temple

Housing starts

Ear of bud_vnitstva new budink_v

million, one

Tijen

Middle

Jobless claims

Kіlkіst stiffer zareєstrovanovan unemployment

yew. osib

Tijen

Middle

Capacity utilization

Koefіtsієnt vikoristannya virobnichnyh squeezes

%

Month

Middle

Industrial production

Rivine of industrial fishing

%

Month

Middle

Durable Goods Orders and Shipments

Zamovlennya i v_dravlennya goods_v trivaly vikoristannya

%

Month

Middle

Consumer confidence

Spozhivcha smіlivіst (readiness kupuvati)

-

Month

Middle

Price index

Yandex price

%

Quarter

Middle

New home sales

Riven sale of new budinkіv

%

Month

Middle

Personal income

Special income income

%

Month

Middle

Personal spending

Rivne of special living

%

Month

Middle

Zakіnchennya tab. 15.2

Economic indexes and figures

Economic indicators and indexes

Odinitsya vimіru

Periodicity of Publications

Rinkove value

Factory goods

Virobniches comrade

%

Month

Middle

Auto sales

Sales of automobiles

million

Month

Middle

Non-farm production

Oath of Virobnitstva (without Sіlsky statehood)

%

Quarter

Middle

Existing Home Sales

Riven sale for sale

million

Month

Low-mid

Leading indicators

Provider Indicators

%

Month

Low

Construction spending

Vitrati on Budіvnitsvo

%

Month

Low

Business inventories

Virological and commodity stocks

%

Month

Low

Consumer credit

Living loan

billion dollars

Month

Low

in the first place, a block of global indicators, as well as imagining the current state of economy of a given country as a whole (GDP - gross domestic product, GNP - gross national product, Unemployment - unemployment rate, Implicit Deflator, price index);

in a different way , economic indicators , such as representing a novice club of the local economy and economy (Retail Sales - retail sales, Retail Ex auto - retail sales, Non-residential sales, Automotive sales, oversight of virobnitstva (without the loss of gratitude to the state), New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales - sales of new and even future budgets, construction, Construction Spending - sales of business loans, Consumer credit, Consumer; Consumer;

in the third place, I ’ll have an indication of the social and psychological stability of the population and population of this country in general (NAPM - the index of business activity of the National Manager for sale, Consumer Confidence - willingness to buy).

For periodical publication indicators, you can go to the quarterly, monthly and third line for less than a month. Zagalnuyu trend ч - what is more global ист т нд нд нд нд икатор икатор икатор икатор икатор т т т им им им і і і і і й п п уб уб уб уб. І Ц zrozumіlo, fragments of a larger scale нд indicator, a larger oversight of information and a trivial period need to be resolved.