home Other disciplines Books Міжнародні розрахунки та валюні операції - Savluk M.І.

Міжнародні розрахунки та валюні операції - Savluk M.І.

Розділ 15. SPECULATIVE OPERATIONS ON CURRENCY RINKS

Після вивчення цього розділу ви зможете:

• Analizuvati ekonomichnu situatsii kraine-kontragentіv;
• Analizuvati ekonomichnye otkazniki, yakі publikuyutsya rіznim mіznarіnimіmі іnformatsіynimi agencies, that viznachiti, yak зміни цих показників впливають на поведінку валюних курсів;
• Зрозуміти механізми впливу інструментів мо нетарної політики центних банків на валюні курси та сучасні тренції в розвитку валюних ринків;
• Зрозуміти механізм of formulating the price in the financial markets that factor;
• Prognozuvati prjamkki ruhu rate of the currency for the addiction of graphs and technical indicators;
• Analizuvati rizikovannіst situatsіy, yakі zakladayutsya on rinku, that priymati rіshennya shodo torgіvli on the currency market.

15.1. Understanding of speculative operations

One of the main dzherel pribudku suaschannyh bankov u vsomu svіtі є konversіynі operatsії. Come, otrimani pislya conducted spekulyativnyh operatsiy, to become from 50 to 80% of the so-called surplus of such banks, yak Barclays Bank, ABN-Amrobank, Swiss Bank Corporation and others.

Українська банківська система послепово стає часткою світової. The Ukrainian banks for the remaining banks have expanded their diyalnist to the market FOREX and takozh have rushed to carry out conversion operations for their families on the territory of the spot.

The method of such operations - otrimaniya pributku vid odlyvlivogo Ruh exchange rate, акцій, цін товарів та деривативів. Alya trebov vrahovuvati rizik that, scho tsina can mozhnyuvatisya in the unpleasant for vashogo ochikuvannya naprymku.

In order that you can buy a boule cheaper buy and sell expensive, pay back, you need to analize the market for a financial look, you need to physically chevalo factor, yaki vplyvayut tsinu.

Neridko robot on the currency market nazivayut groyu, portivnyuchi її z casino. Ask for those who are offended by the "gris" participants - the speculator on the currency market and the gravel in the casino - rizikuyut. Їх об'єднує бажання for a visually insignificant capitol отримати прибуток. Prote speculation on the currency market and the grapes in the casino majut principles of vision.

Casino - a very high risk of gris chance. Here, we rozrachovyut tilki for luck that luck. I do not bother to gravel, but I can not spare my money.

Speculation on the currency market - trade on the fundamentals of professional ruchu rinkovoi tsіni product. Speculator rozrachovuyu otrimati great pributok vіd neіlіkih інвестицій на основі науково достовірного оцінювання ватстсті валюти сьогодні та зміни її ватстсті в подальшому. Here the head chink of success is the high professionalism, and not luck.

Speculators are active participants in the international financial market. Zgіdno s teorієyu refleksivnostі Soros lantsyuzhok podіy, SSMSC vіdbuvayutsya on fіnansovih Rink, deposits are not tіlki od zovnіshnіh chinnikіv (polіtichnі kataklіzmi, fundamentalnі zmіni ekonomіchnih pokaznikіv toscho) and th od otsіnki povedіnki themselves uchasnikіv market analysis that їh reaktsії. Zereshtoy, behind the steps vplyvu on the market speculative sector nayvagomishy, ​​i tsie - yogo characteristic of specialty.

The international market of speculative financial operations - little attention is given to the sector of the market. Якщо на Заході діяльність на цьому ринку є високоприбутковою і вже багато років experiencing a boom, we have to cope with tsiomu naprimi tilki pochinatsya.

Fіnansovі spekulyativnі operatsії toil vazhlive value not tіlki s Look Shvidky otrimannya digit pributku and th schodo priskorennya Ruhu kapіtalu, rozshirennya fіnansovogo market analysis, virіvnyuvannya tsіni pennies on rіznih yogo sectors.

The characteristic peculiarity of the speculative sector is that the market is the yak of professional traders and private traders, but they do not "pricyuyut" on corporate, banking, but on their own pennies. Uspіh to lay down tilki vіd zdіbnosti competently analizuvati situatsіyu, correctly viznachati straights її zmіni, svoechasno kupuvati ta prodavati. Alle pomilkovy view visіnosno svetogostі zіogo biznesu zavzhdi przvodit up vtrasti kapitalu.

In the course of the growth of buli, vzhe zyasovanі rіznі vidyhuvannya (hedzhuvannya) від фінансових ризиків. Sort order s hedgers on fіnansovih Rink zavzhdi pratsyuyut speculators SSMSC zdіysnyuyut fіnansovі operatsії, spryamovanі not hedzhuvannya vіdkritoї pozitsії, and otrimannya pributku od nayavnostі rіznitsі in tsіnah.

Uyavimo sobi taku picture: On the market z'yavilosya two traders. One is a representative of the British company (Dalí Kompania), which exports its products to the United States of America. Production of the Company is sold, as a rule, for the US dolary. At such times the Company takes on itself the risk of falling a dolar for the first period of the sale of goods to that date by repaying the payment. First Lipnya The company sold the goods in the payment line for 90 days and 1 st time of the month otkimati fee from rozmiri 10 million dollars. USA in the American company. 10 million dollars. Мають бути продані за фунти стерлінгів. The spot spot rate of the dollar is set at 1.6500, the tri-monthly forward rate is 1.6350, and the Zhovtneva f'yucerna price is 1.6280.

1-st вещаня Компанія має ефективну довгу posotsіyu spot for dolaryami that shortly after pounds, with the course - 1,6500.

$ 10,000,000 For the course of 1.6500 = 6 060 606 lbs. Art.

The company needs to build a hedge of its own position. For the company's representative, the Compagnie provides 98 Zhovtnevi futures contracts for the rate of 1.6280 (the nominal number of the futures contract is 62,500 pounds). Thus, the company to buy 6 125 000 p. Art. (98 f'yucershnih contract for pound sterlingov) from the date of extinguishment in the case of breastfeeding ta on zagalnu sumu 9 971 500 dollars.

1 жовтня компанія отримує від американської компанії платіж на суму 10 млн дол. As of the settlement date, the spot rate is 1.6900, and the futures price is 1.6680. Anglійська компанія продає 10 млн дол. US at the rate of 1,6900 і купує 5 917 159 ф. Art.

At the same day, the Company sold 98 futures contracts for a rate of 1.6680, tomb 6,125,000. Art. For 10 216 500 dollars. USA. Kompanіya отримує прибуток у розмірі 245 000 dollars.

Vodnochase, if predstavnik Kompanії kupuє f'yuchersnі contracts to hedzhuvannya riziku vtrati kapіtalu, ot trader, yaky Zroby analіz Rinku i dіyshov visnovku, scho, mozhlivo, anglіysky pound bude dorozhchati, kupuє 98 f'yuchersnih kontraktіv the path of 1.6280. Yogo meta make up a whim at the time, yakshchoo pound sterlingov podorozhchaє.

The Yakby Company did not hedge the position of the spot, but the Won banned zbits on the sum of 660,060 - 5,917,159 = 143,447 pounds. Art.

Undertaken lower dani svidchat, scho company did not suffer zbitkiv and not otrimala pributok, oskilki basis lapped nezminnim.

Vodnochas merchant, kotriy pridbav 98 f'yuchershnih contract in the method of speculation, having secured a surplus for a sum of 245 000 dollars. USA (for rozrayunkok not included payment for komisii).

On fіnansovіh rinkah zazhdi zazhdi order hedgers pritsyuyut speculators, yakі zdіysnjut fіnansovі operatsії, are not crocheted on a hedge of vіdkritії posііїї, but on отримання прибутку від виникнення з часом різниці цін.

Thus, the hedger of a speculator is very simple. The speculator buys (sells) an active with the method of selling (buying) ix in Maybutnomu for bilsh prabilivoyu tsinoyu. One's own speculators, one's side, one's face, and the other - take on the rizik zmini tsini, which is to convey the hedgeri yom. Hedger, with his own chervon, he insured on the terminus of his activity, that ready-made platiti for tse.

At the international currency market pratsyue і such a sub'ekt, yak arbitrager. Tse zapoda, yaka otrimy pributok for rahunok one-hour sale of the sale of one th the same asset. Вважається, що арбітражна операція дає змогу отримати прибуток майже без ризику і не требує інвестицій. Arbіtrazherom stії Ukrainian bank, yakiy nadaє klієntam, іmgіsі іnkupіvі ta sale fіnansovogo activu, one-hour ukladayuchi to suit with a partner bank for the purchase of assets, yakschoo klієnt yogo kupuє, і on sales of assets, yakschoo klієnt sell asset.

Наприклад, Банк А надає клієнтам послуги з маржинанальної торгівлі на ринку FOREX. Klієнт вважає, що ціна британського фунта стерлінгів буде зростати відносно долара США. Він подає to the bank an application for the purchase of GBP / USD і вказує суму. The dealer can call the bank with the counterparty bank and otrimuyot dvuhstonen'e kotiruvannya, napriklad 1,4250 / 1,4255. Al in front of time, yak nadati tse kotirivannya klієntu, vіn include up to its own and / or the price of the quotation 1,4248 / 1,4257. Thus, Bank A :

• Buy GBP from the counterparty bank for the rate of 1.4255;
• Sell ​​GBP at the rate of 1.4257;
• Отримає прибуток на різниці курсу (1,4257-1,4255) майже без ризику;
• For zdіysnennya tsієї operatsії bank not budet іnvestuvati кошти, оскільки ця операція здійснюється за рахунок коштів клієнта to the bank.

Fig. 15.1. Dinamika zmіni ruhu currencies

Nyaktivnіshі uchasniki mіzhnarogo foreign currency rinku, yakі zdіysnjutu speculative operations, - tsekerstіynі banks, інвестиційні banks, trading institutions , insurance and інші funds, corporations, а and takoz іndivіdualnі Інвестори.

Світові валюні ринки є найвагомішою частиною фінансового ринку з schodenim обігом близько 2 трлн дол. Such a rіivnoznachny rіmom-chotiromom місяцям schodennoї roboty New York rinku акцій. Approximately 20% of the operations on the FOREX market are operating for real delivery to the asset, and 80% are operating, by the method of some - by rejecting the speculative surplus for a razoon of a currency exchange rate. In this way, practically all of the financial markets - FOREX - are the targets of speculative foreign exchange operations.

Rinok speculative operatsii nastilki great, but not just gravel, navyat not one unit can not pobnistyu vplyivti on ynogo, that expert called FOREX a nimble rink on the ground.

The main part of the auction is attached to 300 international banks, which is the basis of transac- tions for the great companies and the class. Денний обсяг операцій у міжбанківській торгівлі досягає мільярдів доларів США. Operations in the currency, prior to the recent hour of the bullet, are used for bank-monopoly services, and are at the same time eager to use e-commerce systems. Banks vystavlyayut quoting of currencies, and remains the quotation of the sight of the cash flow of the market for the currency. Torgovlya is conducted through termnyali komp'yuterіv, інтернет та по телефону з усіх кінців світу.

Yaksho podivitisya dinamiku zmіni rate of exchange, then it is zrozumlim, scho speculative operations with a method otrimannya pributkіv mozhut budi vigіdnim yak for the financial institutions, and for private companies that private osib. Spravdi, the counties of the currencies of currencies are showing up, but the way is settled є efektivnim інвестиційним рішенням.

On the other hand, buying dolar for ёни for the rate of 103.00 USD / JPY, and sales of the day at the rate of 104.50 USD / JPY of one lot on the martins Margin Trading to give the opportunity to pay off for a sum of 1342 dollars. (On the margins of Margin Trading, you can apply for the amount of the insurance deposit of 1000 USD.) The operation with the purchase of 12,500,000 USD for the US dolar.)

Uspіh bіznіsu na speculativnomu rinku viznachaetsya peredusіm profiyinistyu yogo uchasnikіv.

Specialist z dealer - the dealer (the one who will borrow the merchandise and sell the financial tools) - will be his own first profession, he will give zmogu yomu reminiscent of the triathis in the stays of non-perennial rinković zmіn courses, interest rates that are in the parameters of financial risks.