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Management - Vikhanskiy OS

3.1. Theory of expectation

Human behavior is constantly associated with a choice of two or more alternatives. From what a person gives this or that preference, it depends what and how he does, how he behaves and what results he achieves. Waiting theory is designed to give an answer to the question of why a person makes this or that choice, facing several alternatives, and how much he is motivated to achieve the result in accordance with the choice made. In the most generalized form, the theory of expectation can be formulated as a teaching describing the dependence of motivation on two points: how much a person would like to receive and how much possible for him to get what he would like to receive, in particular, how much effort he is willing to spend for this. For example, an aspiring businessman from the province comes to negotiations to start a joint business with representatives of large companies located in the city, which is a recognized center of business activity. To maintain his reputation, he will not stop at a hotel that has a second-rate reputation, although it is cheap. At the same time, he does not have the means to stay in a posh hotel. Therefore, apparently, he will stop at such a hotel, which is quite prestigious and for which he has enough money for living.

The theory of expectation with its roots dates back to the thirties and is connected in large measure with the developments of Kurt Lewin [6]. The main developers of the actual expectations concepts with regard to the motivation and behavior of a person in an organization can be called V. Vroom [12], as well as L. Porter and E. Lawler [13].

The process of motivation in the theory of expectation is formed as if from the interaction of three blocks: 1) efforts; 2) performance; 3) the result. The expectation theory studies and describes the interaction of these three blocks. In this effort is considered as a consequence and even the result of motivation. Execution is considered - as a consequence of the interaction of efforts, personal capabilities and the state of the environment, and the result, as a function, depending on the performance and on the degree of desire to obtain results of a certain type.

The expectation theory operates with some key categories for it, which have a very specific meaning within the framework of this theory. Therefore, before presenting the theory proper, let us consider these categories.

The result in the theory of expectation is considered on two levels. The results of the first level are the results of the work itself, the implementation of the actions. They consist in the quality and quantity of the product produced, the amount of time expended, the amount of time lost, and so on. The results of the second level are those consequences for the person, which follow from the results of the first level. They are associated with the possible reward or punishment that will follow from the leadership and the environment on the basis of their assessment of the results of the first level. Possible forms of manifestation of the results of the second level can be an increase or decrease in payment, promotion or demotion, a positive or negative reaction of the team, etc.

Valence reflects the degree to which each individual result is desirable for a person, how attractive to him or, on the contrary, unattractive, i.e. Valence as it reflects the priorities for a person of various results. If the result is highly valued by a person, then it has a positive valence, but if the result is denied by a person, then it has a negative valence for it. Finally, the valence of the result is zero if the person is indifferent to this result. Valence is very different from individual people. For one, for example, payment, raising it can be very important, for another, the valence can be zero, and in certain situations can even have a negative value. It is important to emphasize that for the positive valence of the generalized result, it is not at all necessary to have a positive valency of each particular result. It may be that the high positive valency of individual results will overlap the negative valency of other results, and in aggregate the overall result will have a positive valence.

The expectation reflects the person's idea of ​​the extent to which his actions will lead to certain results. Usually these expectations are based or depend on direct experience, on the depth of analysis of what led to success and failure, on the degree of self-confidence, the level of preparation, the ability to assess the situation, the knowledge of their capabilities and a number of other factors. The expectation estimate ranges from 0 to 1. If the person believes that the performance and results do not depend on his efforts, the expectation is 0. If, on the contrary, he believes that the result and the performance are completely dependent on his efforts, Then expectation is received as a quantitative estimate of 1. The expectation has a very strong influence on the behavior of the person in the organization, since, based on this, he determines for himself how much he should try, how much effort he must spend to perform the work.

There are two groups of expectations. Expectations linking efforts and work performance, and expectations linking the performance of work and the results behind it. The first group of expectations reflects a person's idea of ​​how much his efforts determine the performance of work, i.e. How much his efforts determine the results of the first level. If a person believes that the qualitative and quantitative side of performance depends heavily on his efforts, then the expectation estimate is close to 1. In the opposite case, it is close to or equal to 0. There are also possible estimates that are in the range between 0 and 1, which will correspond to the person's representation On how much his efforts can influence performance.

The expectation regarding the evaluation of the degree of dependence of the result of the second level on performance reflects how much the person connects the possible consequences for him in the form of reward, punishment, a certain reaction of the collective, etc. With the level of performance of their work. Here, too, the expectation is estimated to be 1 if in its presentation the results of the second level completely depend on the level of performance, and 0 if it believes that there is no such connection.

The expectation theory explains how the process of motivating a person for activities is constructed, based on linking a person's ideas about the work necessary for the work, its practical implementation and the results expected in response to the work performed. At the same time, the key points of concentration of the theory are: 1) expectations on the chain of "effort - execution"; 2) expectations on the chain "performance - the results of the second level" and 3) the valency of the results.

In accordance with the theory of expectation, the motivation of a person to perform a job depends on how much he is interested or not interested in doing it, how much work is attractive to him. When deciding what to do and what efforts to spend, a person usually answers to himself about the question of how much he needs to do it. That is, when choosing an alternative, a person thinks about if he behaves appropriately, will perform the work accordingly, whether it leads to a certain result of the first level. In this case, the expectation of the result of the first level is formed. In addition, the person answers the question of what he will receive as a result of the successful performance of the work (Figure 2.8).

Fig. 2.8. Schematic representation of the theory of expectation

This is already the development of expectations of the results of the second level. And finally, he decides for himself how valuable this result will be to him, i.e. He estimates the valence of the result of the second level. Depending on what final assessment the person will come to, his motivation for doing the work will be formed.

The main provisions of the theory of expectation are as follows. Firstly, since this theory is subordinated to the idea of ​​finding the answer to the question of how motivation affects the performance of work, the initial postulate is that execution is determined by the product of the values ​​of two factors: the person's ability and his motivation. Secondly, it is asserted that the motivation is given by the product of the expectation value of the results of the first level by the valence of the results of the first level. And finally, thirdly, the valence of the results of the first level is given by the product of the valence of the results of the second level to the expectations of individual results of the second level. A person chooses that alternative where the motivation will be higher.

The foregoing positions of the basic model of the theory of expectation can be illustrated by the following example. Let's say an employee has three options for doing work: 1) the expenditure of great effort; 2) the expenditure of moderate efforts and 3) the expenditure of small efforts. Estimates for each of the results are given in Table. 2.2.

Table 2.2.

Evaluation of results

Continuation of Table. 2.2

Based on this table, you can calculate the motivational power for each of the possible behaviors.

I option

Valence results of the first level

High result

Valence is equal to 2х0.8 + 4х0.0 + 1х0.5х4х0.3 = 3.3

Average result

Valence is equal to 2x0.5 + 4x0.0 + 1x0.2 + 4x0.1 = 1.6

Low result

Valence is equal to 2х0.2 + 4х0.0 + 1х0.1 + 4х0.0 = 0.5

The motivational force is equal to 0.2x3.3 + 0.2x1.6 + 0.1x0.5 = 2.68

II option

Valence results of the first level

High result

Valence is equal to 2х0.2 + 4х0.4 + 1х0.4 + 4х0.1 = 2.8

Average result

Valence is equal to 2х0,1 + 4х0,4 + 1х0,1 + 4х0,0 = 1,9

Low result

Valence is equal to 2х0,0 + 4х0,4 + 1х0,0 + 4х0,0 = 1,6

The motivational force is equal to 0.2x2.8 + 0.6x1.9 + 0.2x1.6 = 2.02

III option

Valence results of the first level

High Results

Valence is equal to 2х0.1 + 4х0.6 + 1х0.1 + 4х0.0 = 2.7

Average result

Valence is equal to 2х0,0 + 4х0,6 + 1х0,1 + 4х0,0 = 2,5

Low result

Valence is equal to 2х0,0 + 4х0,6 + 1х0,0 + 4х0,0 = 2,4

The motivational force is equal to 0.1x2.7 + 0.2x2.5 + 0.7x2.4 = 2.45

Thus, it is clear that the largest motivational force in I variant, and then in the second place in attractiveness is III variant. In accordance with the theory of expectations, the employee will have to make a choice in favor of the first option.

When implementing the ideas of the theory of expectation in the practice of management, it is necessary to remember that according to this theory the motivation of a person to activity is set by the level and structure of expectations of the results of the second level and the degree of their connection in the consciousness of the employee with the results of the first level. Therefore, as a mandatory condition for successful motivation, the manager must know the structure, valency and magnitude of the expectation of the results of the second level. At the same time, he must remember that there can not be a single approach to all employees, since the expectations of the second level are all individual. In addition, the manager should seek to link the results of the second level with the results of the first level in the employee's mind. Using various techniques, the manager for successful management of subordinates should build the management of the organization in such a way that the employee is confident that by working towards achieving organizational goals, he thereby creates the conditions for the best achievement of the results of the second level.

In the theory of expectation, it is considered that in order for the motivation process to be implemented, a number of preconditions must be fulfilled. Such conditions are:

• the employees have a high level of expectation of the results of the first level;

• the presence of a sufficiently high level of expectation of the results of the second level and the total non-negative valency of the results of the second level.

In practice, this means that the employee must have a firm idea that his labor results depend on his efforts, that certain results result from his work results, and also that the results obtained by him ultimately have for him value. In the absence of one of these conditions, the process of motivation becomes extremely difficult or even unworkable.

Making a general conclusion about the theory of expectation, it must be noted that it proceeds from the fact that people carry out their actions in accordance with the possible consequences for them of these actions can lead. People, on the basis of the information available to them, choose one of the alternatives of the action, based on what they will receive as a result and what efforts they will have to spend to achieve this result. That is, according to the theory of expectation, a person behaves in accordance with what, in his opinion, will happen in the future, if he makes some effort.