home Economy Books History of the world economy - Polyak GB

History of the world economy - Polyak GB

29. Features of economic development of the leading countries of the world after the Second World War

29.1. The growing economic power of the United States

As a result of the Second World War, the economy of a number of countries, especially Japan and West Germany, was for a long time disorganized. Significantly weakened the position of France and Britain. War deformed or even completely disrupted the market mechanisms of regulating capitalist reproduction, there was a decline in the economic life of many countries.

The United States is the only country in the world whose economy emerged from the Second World War considerably strengthened. Moreover, during the war years the country's national income doubled. After the war, the United States accounted for 60% of industrial output, 2/3 of the gold reserve and 1/3 of the capitalist world's exports. The well-known Belgian historian and economist Herman van der Bee noted: "The United States emerged from the war definitely strengthened." Therefore, immediately after the war, the country was able to quickly and successfully reorient its economy to produce peaceful products. By the middle of 1947 this transition was completed. It was based on the following factors: good organization of public administration, reconversion programs for soldiers returning from the front, rapid growth of private consumption, just as rapid expansion of investment in inventories and equipment, and finally development under the influence of government policy of exports of goods and services. The index of the gross national product (GNP) of the USA has increased.

Technological superiority and the highest productivity of labor, abundant profits allowed to finance new investments both within the country and outside it.

In post-war foreign economic policy of the United States, Western Europe occupies a special place. In its relations with this region, the United States went from the patronage to the relationship of relative equality in the post-war period.

Marshall Plan "New Frontiers"

At this stage, the US made significant efforts to social and economic stabilization of its Western European allies. June 5, 1947 as a "program for the revival of Europe" after World War II was presented the Marshall Plan , named for its developer, US Secretary of State J. Marshall. The plan provided for the allocation under certain conditions of loans and credits. 16 European countries agreed to participate in the Marshall Plan. From April 1948 to February 1952 the countries of Western Europe (England, France, Holland, Spain, West Germany) received $ 17 billion according to the Marshall Plan. At the same time, American business profitably bought up Western European enterprises.

To implement the plan to strengthen the positions of Western European capitalism, the establishment of the American influence in the region, a special Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) * was established to monitor the distribution of funds and the conditions for their use.

* Since 1961 OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The Korean war (1950-1953) had a definite effect on the American economy: the volume of industry working for military needs increased, and the employment of the population increased. In the US industry, up to $ 30 billion was invested, that is, more than during the entire Second World War.

Despite the favorable economic situation, the war in Korea, which brought the US 54 thousand dead and 103 thousand wounded, was unpopular in the country. This led to the defeat of the Democrats in the elections of 1952.

The republican administration relied on the monetarist policy in the economy. With the help of financial foci of regulation it was possible to overcome the economic downturn of 1953-1954. And the third post-war recession of 1957-1958.

In the first post-war decades, the leading position of the United States in the world capitalist economy was undeniable. But the economic recovery of Western Europe and the industrial breakthrough in Japan significantly changed this situation.

In the second half of the 50's. The scientific and technological revolution had a great impact on the US economy. The components of the scientific and technological revolution were the automation of production, the use of computers, the intensification and concentration of production. As a result, the accelerated development of production and the improvement of the quality of life, on the one hand, the growth of unemployment, a slowdown in economic growth.

The new tasks facing the state were reflected in the program "New Frontiers" by J. Kennedy in the early 1960s. The program was developed by a group of neoliberal economists. They provided for a consistent course to maintain a balance between the supply of goods and services and aggregate demand in order to ensure continued balanced economic growth with a high level of employment and the need for price stability. The program was based on the Keynesian idea of ​​scarce funding. In 1962-1963 years. Measures were taken in the field of social programs. Representatives of big business were made concessions.

In general, the policy "New frontiers" has yielded positive results. The industrial production index in 1964 exceeded the level of 1961 by 20%. The share of the USA in the gross domestic product (GDP) * decreased from 44% in 1960 to 27% in 1980, in industrial production - from 35.4 to 32.9%. The share of the USA in world capitalist exports has noticeably decreased: from 18 to 12% over the same period. Most of the leading capitalist countries, which lagged behind in the level of labor productivity from the United States in 1950 by two to five times, by the beginning of the 1980s, almost completely eliminated this gap.

* GDP is a gross national product (GNP), net of a balance of some foreign economic transactions of developed capitalist member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The threat of the leading role of the United States in the world capitalist economy contributed to the adoption of a set of measures aimed at changing the industrial structure of production, restructuring the industry in favor of science-intensive industries, increasing spending on research and development (R & D), and stimulating scientific and technological progress.

The following data reflect the dynamics of labor productivity in the post-war period.

* McConnell K.R., Bru S.L. Economics: Principles, problems, and politics. In 2 volumes. T. 1.-M., 1992. - P.38.

As can be seen from the data in the second column, for about 20 years after the Second World War (1948-1966) labor productivity increased at a fairly high rate - an average of 3.2% per year. However, in the period 1966-1973 gg. These rates have sharply decreased. Further in the dynamics of labor productivity, the most unfavorable period occurs (1973-1981), after which there was some revival of the growth rates of labor productivity in the 1980s.

Transition to "Reaganomics"

In January 1981, Reagan became president of the United States. His economic policy, called "Reaganomics", was a variant of the neoconservative policy, which throughout the 80-90s was used in all developed capitalist countries. It included: reduction of social programs and all types of taxes, combating inflation through tight monetary policy, deregulation of entrepreneurial activity.

The scope of the federal government, especially in the social sphere, has been reduced - out of 46 social programs 44 have been given over to the states.

In 1986, the law on income tax was adopted, which provides for a reduction in personal income tax from 50 to 28%, corporate profit tax from 46 to 34%. The adoption of this law contributed to the stimulation of investment activity. The country underwent a profound restructuring of the economy, connected with the new stage of the scientific and technical revolution, there was an increase in the real volume of personal consumption and the growth of the state debt to other countries.

In the 1980s, the US position in the world capitalist economy was reinforced: in 1986, the United States accounted for about 34% of the industrial output of developed capitalist countries (compared with 32% in 1970) and 20% of their foreign trade turnover (1970) . - 18%).

In the late 80's. The US economy entered a period of sharp slowdown in growth. Among American experts, there is no common opinion about the reasons for the slowdown in labor productivity growth and the lag in this indicator from Japan and countries of Western Europe. The United States is inferior to Japan and almost all countries of Western Europe and per capita GNP *:

* Herman van der Bee . History of the world economy. - Moscow: Science. - 1994. - P. 344.

The acute economic problem of the early 90's. Became a deficit of the state budget - 290 billion dollars, growing public debt - about 4 billion dollars.

The economic strategy of the administration of B. Clinton

The government of the new US President, B. Clinton, who took up this post in November 1992, saw the way out of the situation as a moderate budget-financed program to stimulate economic growth.

The economic stabilization plan included three programs:

1) a program to stimulate the economy through an increase in the number of jobs for which $ 30 billion was foreseen;

2) an investment program that offered preferential financing for private investors and targeted investments. This was allocated 140 billion dollars;

3) a program to reduce the budget deficit. To implement this program, the Clinton administration planned simultaneous cuts in government spending and tax increases. The government program included 150 specific budget proposals for 1993.

In order to attract capital to the production sector, along with tax reform, interest rates on bank loans were sharply raised, if necessary. This affected the movement of capital on an international scale, stimulated the intensive inflow of capital to the American economy from many countries of the world, which allowed the US to finance the modernization of its economy in many ways for "someone else's expense." American economist M. Friedman, the founder of monetarism as a direction in economic theory, noted that the high dollar contributed to the inflow of capital and allowed the modernization of production in the US. As a result, the neo-conservative strategy as a whole helped the United States to implement structural adjustment and technological re-equipment of the economy to a large extent with the help of foreign capital investments, but in large part due to a sharp decline in the competitiveness of products. Then came the next phase of the credit policy - lower interest rates. As a result, it was possible to ensure the modernization of the country's economy and a fairly stable rate of economic growth.