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Insurance and Investment Management - V. Fedorenko

11.3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INVESTMENT AT THE SYSTEM TAKE ADMINISTRATION OF THE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE

Financial investments To transfer the gain to the investment in the investment price - the regional, share, shares, outwardly. In the process of formulating a portfolio of financial investments, we need to go ahead to analyze the main characteristics of such assets, as well as the fact that they are realistic. Dokhidnost of valuable folders to lay down in two dignitaries:

• ochikuvano norms of income;

• Norms and rules for income-bearing income from operating folders.

The investment in the capital in the price of the documents is not the same as the one for your company, because you need to know the most important issues, in order to identify the investor in the process of the most important ones, but: Rizik Іх pre-term vidklikannya; Inflationary rizik; credit card and credit card; rizik, povyazaniy із trivalіstyu perіod obіgu valuable priper.

Rishennya shchodo kupіvlі chi sale of singing financial instruments and instruments you need to take a message for a retrieval analysis and reckoning with the ryvnya ikh of the last, so і rіvnya rizikovostі. For the sake of understanding, we’ll consider the methodology for analyzing the financial stability of investment, and even then, the main approach to analyzing financial risk.

Financial investments are characterized by such indicators as yak rinkova price (P), internal (theoretical abo rozrahunkova) wartiness (V), ryven dokhidnosti (normal payback). The value of the market value and the internal gambling often do not get lost, the fragments of the leather investor are the most reliable and the most valuable, paying on their own results.

Rinkova tsina is a declining indicator, which is basically effective for the market. The price of the valuable document is displayed at the latest quotations and is called the exchange rate. At any moment the hour on the market існує тільки is one price for the singing financial instrument.

Inside, there’s an opportunity to invest financially - it’s only a different indicator, and that’s why you need to keep an eye on the model, on the basis of which the calculation is carried out. Universally, at any time, a valuable father and son may have a greater value, moreover, theoretically, there are more participants in the market, so that there are brown models. From now on, an assessment of the internal vartosti to the singing world is sub-active.

In the process of analyzing the relationship of the price and the internal interests, it is necessary to identify the quietest management decisions for a particular valuable company. As a matter of fact, the internal identity of a valuable papier, which has been scrapped by a potential investor, is looking for a precise price, then such a papyr is clearly visible at the time of appropriation, fragments of it were underestimated to the market. Yakshchko at the thought of a particular participant in the rinkov’s price to the father-in-law re-educating the internal wart, then the German sense of coup, such a papyr, the fragments of the yoga price are envied. The water hour is also a constant price for those who want to sell them all if they already have the portfolio in the investor. Yakshcho rinkova price and internal wariness of the valuable father to understand, then it means that the operation is speculative in nature (by way of gaining revenue in the form of sale and sale and purchase) is unlikely to be possible.

At present, we have a good understanding of the principles and principles of our business, including the following:

de V (t) - internal affirmation of valuable folders at time I; ST ,, - Ochukuvaniye potіk vіdsotkovih bills for the valuable papier in, -th period

(i = 1, p); th - it’s okay ochіkuvana dokhidnіst valued papier (normal profit).

Yak vyplivaє s formula (11.4), yaku nadalі nazivatimo basic model, the internal vartіst vіdіnnogo paper to lay down vіd three dignitaries:

• Ochіkuvanih penny nadhodhen;

• triviality periodu obigu valuable papier (abo periodu prediction for line-less tools);

• Norms for a profit.

The model can be brought in by the way, for the sake of completing various tasks, to set up an hour to take an investment decision. Relying on the model, the investor can choose the internal investment for the highest value of the parameters (the flow rate and the normal rate) for the process of modeling. I know that I will appreciate the price tag and knowing it for such a thing, which is more expensive, you can calculate the rate for the benefit of the valuable folder and keep the value with alternative options for investing. The methodology for analyzing the financial and investment needs is examined in the application of two of the most important views: regional and public relations.

Analysis of the region’s region

Obligations must be kept up to the class of bargain priests, such as об goiters ’obligations, distributed to the stock market by the way of pennies on song minds. Obligations to follow the minds of emisy, character and terms of obigu, ways of securing and paying income.

Depending on their characteristics, you can see the area with a zero coupon, the area with a fixed coupon rate, and non-personalized rate. It is clear that the model is modifiable and analytic (11.4), for which a check-out of the internal version and the norm are carried out.

Obligations with a zero coupon. With minds, the payment for such valuable folders has not been transferred. The income of the investor is formed as if they were lower than the nominal rate and the regional rate, set on a discount basis (which is lower than the nominal). From now on, oblast with a zero coupon should be kept up to discount value folders. Such a region is generated only once, the investor will be held at the time of repayment, the formula (11.4) is typed

de N - nominee sum of the region, as I pay for the repaid; p - trivial period to maturity of the region (rocky).

Butt 4

The analysis of the additional profit of the regional region with a zero coupon with a nominal amount of 1000 UAH, for sale at a price of 750 UAH and a yak will be paid off in 2 fate. Regardless of the fact that there is an opportunity for alternative cost-saving money from a normal income of 14%. Analysis conducted in two ways.

1. Rozrahumo theoretical theory of regional relations, flirting around at the rate of an alternate alternative to buying money, that time with a continuous market value.

2. Countable profitability of the region for the formula, more valuable (11.6):

Porvnyaєmy tsyu formula with a normal income alternative to the project, to give the opportunity to vibrate more direct investment koshtіv. For the first way

Having shown the rozrahunok, the theoretical variability of the region (UAH 769.5) for the price of the price (UAH 750), please give me a look at the information about the investment.

For another way:

Oskіlki gained significant value of the regional government, 1.4% less in the alternative option, then the addition of such a valuable father was also possible in the future.

Obligations with a fixed coupon rate. Obligations, by means of expressions, I have transferred the payment of the loan from the lottery to the nominal amount of the investment, called coupon. Please pay here for the coupons - for the coupons indicated on them by the value of the coupon rate. Razrіznyayut oblіgatsії with a fixed coupon rate and a floating rate, such as that, as it can be sold for a period of time. Coupons may be sold at a nominal rate, so at a discount or premium, it’s fallible in the form of a competitive market for investors. In addition, for regions with a fixed coupon rate of interest of the investor, there are two parts:

• equalization of the period of need for payment of bills, interest rate;

• Imperial capital increase (zbitkіv) of the knowledge of the market of the region’s regional value.

The basic model for this kind of wiggle:

de k - coupon rate regional. Butt 5

An analysis of the benefit of dignity by the private residence of the regional government nominee of 1000 UAH with a generous coupon rate of 15%. Oblіgatsіyu can be added at a price of 950 UAH; sredniorin-kova norm of income to become 17%.

As in the front application, analysis can be done in two ways. The first way of putting the plug into the rosette of theoretical vartosti on the basis of mid-market profitability and third-party price. Another way is that the price list is corrected for the required regional level (a *), as is the size of the property (11.6), for the understanding of the internal value of the price. Particularly prevailing norms of profitability from the middle market can be accepted by accepting an orderly number of prides for a whole look of valuable folders. Skoristaєmosya in this way and the way to determine the norm of profitability of the regional area.

Otzhe, formula (11.6) - the price is one nevidim and - the state oblast. For the visualization of the unknown value, I know it immediately before the method of the last iteration described. I do not want the valuable father until the moment of repayment of the loan, and = 18%, including:

Tsya suma (953 UAH) of food for the correct price of the region, the rate of profitability of 18% is real to that. Vickona is counted for thinking, which is 2 = 20%:

The sum of 923.2 UAH is lower for the production price of the regional budget of 950 UAH, which is the most important value d to be between 18% and 20% and become 18.2%:

From now on, the courtyard of the region with a coupon of 15%, is added at a discount of 50 UAH, the amount of the purchase price is up to 18.2%. Oskilki, since I mean, I am transferring the mid-market norm of income (17%), then the profit of such a region is possible to doznilnim.

Obligatsії with a floating coupon rate. As a rule, with our minds, there are no fixed coupon rates and are not fixed any time, there are no loans for loans, so the price of the coupon is the same as the price for the coupon. The internal wartiness of such regions is calculated for the formula:

de СБі - groshy flows, which are generated by the region in the period.

The procedure for analyzing the area with a floating coupon rate is not to enter the description of the item, for the vignette of the fact that it’s a good deal for the skin and the skin can use it.

Відкличні облігації . Obligatsії, think of the option of transferring the right to redeem the right to redeem them before the end of the period, they are called indemnified. In the process of analyzing the profitability of the provincial regions, to respect, it is not the nominal number of the region, but the nominal price (the price of the out-of-date statement), that is, the price for the settlement of the current term. As a rule, for an out-of-date vіdklikannya vіkupna price іlі oblagatsіy not zbіgaєsya іh their nominal. Inodno schodo vіdklichnyh oblіgatsіy vstavlyuvatsya shche th terminu zahistu vid of pre-term repayment, the triviality of such a tidy vplivaniya at the same time as the remaining state of such oblast.

Such is the situation of the winery; also for understanding the sale of the valuable pope to the present line of repayment. You can go to the pre-term sale of valuable folders for various reasons, for example, for an active time before managing a portfolio of valuable folders. The international price list is sold in advance for financial statements, and the standard is due to the necessary restructuring of assets.

For the mind of the pre-term vidklikannya (abo sale), the income of the valuable papier for the period of zberigannya shall be calculated for the formula

de p - kіlkіst perііdіv, sale of yak oblіgatsіya bull in obigu; P - the price is valid, but the flow rate is for sale, for which it is possible to sell; y - the value of the valuable papier until the moment of clicking for the period of zberigannya (nevidom value). Otzhe, formula (11.8) є rіvnyannyam with one invisible, even all sizes, in addition the number is R, є vidomimi. The analysis of such regions should be carried out as it is, as in the front butts.

In addition to value, on the market can be wrapped in non-stringed regions, as well as transfer underestimated trials an hour of payment of income for a fixed rate with a floating rate. In this way, the method of calculating the internal wartost region doesn’t need to see the same rules for sharing. Analysis of the number of shares

Akcija - the whole price is, right now the right of the valsnik to the fate of the lofty capital is granted. Aktsії lay down to the class of shares of valuable folders, let go of unrestrained organizations and don’t mess with the terminated obigu. Nominal wartime promotions can be rewarded, but we can give you the opportunity to pass on a small share, but I can increase the number of such promotions. As a rule, the nominal value of the offer is not a real image of the wartost, in order to analyze the profitable share of the exchange rate, so I will correct the price tag.

Kursova pricing to keep up with different officials: the magnitude of the dynamics of dividends, the illumination of the market, the market rate of return. For the course of action, you may be able to get ahead of the management recession and the restructuring of the company. So, primirom, rishennya about the evil company zdebіlshogo significantly increase the exchange rate price of shares. Although the exchange rate can be recognized in different ways, all of them rely on the same ambush principle, a clear pole in the generation of more valuable income from the normal rate of return. An indicator of profitability can be as much as divine dividends, but the value of the net surplus in the list for one share. Another indicator of victory is that if there are no dividends for singing reasons, they don’t cry out, but gaining a little more reinvestment, say, in the process of becoming, expanding and reorganizing public offerings.

Accepting management decisions based on the results of a continuous analysis of the current flow rate with a theoretical (internal) wartime. Inside, the share of the offer is possible by using different methods, if you need to get used to it at all, we’ll get a model for estimating the may (11.4), so it will transform in the future.

Shares with permanent (steel) dividends. As a matter of fact, dividends, so as to cry out to the hairline of aktsii, become larger, then the basic model (11.4) will be shifted to the formula of the sum of warehouse geometrical progression, which will gradually decrease:

de E - a groovy potik at a viglyad divіdendіv; th - middle (abo іnsha accepted) norm of income. Similarly rozrahovuyutsya wartі lineless regions.

Butt 6

The analysis of the profitability of the investment by the company of the share of the guaranteed joint-stock company for the market price of 200 UAH and the generous payment of the dividend of 35 UAH, as a rule of the average market rate, become 25%. Rozrahumo theoretical theory of action:

From now on, the internal guarantee of equity (140 UAH) is significantly lower than the average price (200 UAH), and the company is not recommended to buy the price, the price is inscribed.

Shares with dividends, which are easy to grow. Yakshcho divіnddi, schochyut to accentuate the hair-holders of the action, to grow up regularly and evenly, then on the inside the wartiness of such valuable folders is mostly

the value of dividends (E) and the rate of growth (A). The basic model (11.4) in the whole vipad matima viglyad:

Since the mathematical singing mastery is to hold the formula, it’s like a model of M. Gordon, just like you think, if the average rate is higher than the rate of increase in rate of growth of dividends, because for a> A:

Turn to butt 6, analyze the stability of the stock, at a faster pace the growth of dividends becomes 10%.

From now on, in such a time, the interest for the market price of 200 UAH is required for the introduction of the most valuable items, the fragments of the internal number of such folders (UAH 256.7) are significantly higher for the current rate.

Aktsії zі with a constant pace of growth of dividends. As a matter of fact, the size of the dividends, and the rate of their growth, are not overshadowed by continuous product sales, which are analyzed, then the combination is received, and the procedure for speeding up will accelerate. The essence of the approach is that if you have a long period of time, you can change the range of hours, at the same time you can change the dividends by steel, and by the way, go ahead with the formula (11.9), and you must take into account the following 11.10). Intrinsic Wartiness Accredited as the sum of the bills for the dermal period.

Norms for income reduction in operation with valuable partners are the significant number of significant financial instruments for investors, discounts for them are more important for them to increase the value of incomes, please pay more.

Zdebilshogo come to the pricey paper room to follow the rules of the rules and rates. And if you want to, if you want, you can add a contribution for singing to see important folders (for example, for municipal regions), do not get any operation with such tools, but you need to set the normal rate for lower ones. In Ukraine, during the period of the launch of the Oblast Oblast State Power Positions (OVDP), income on the territory of the region, gained on the initial market, did not fall short. Profit from the resale of the OVDP, which was gained on the secondary market, and paid for the retirement rates. It encouraged investors to contribute significant value to the ATS, while the water hour streamed the secondary market. Нині згідно з чинним законодавством України витрати підприємства на купівлю цінних паперів розглядають як елемент валових витрат, а всі доходи, одержані у вигляді дивідендів від акцій, паїв, часток, погашення номінальної вартості цінного паперу та інших вкладень, включають до складу валових доходів і оподатковують за загальною ставкою податку на прибуток.

У процесі прийняття управлінських рішень щодо фінансових інвестицій можна використати такий показник, як період окупності цінного паперу, відомий в економічній літературі як аналіз дюрації. Порівняльний аналіз дюрації кількох цінних паперів та (або) періоду окупності капітальних вкладень уможливить вибір найприйнят-нішого варіанта інвестування коштів.

Середньозважений строк погашення (дюрація) — це міра наведеної вартості окремого цінного паперу або портфеля цінних паперів, за допомогою якої вимірюється середня тривалість періоду, упродовж якого всі потоки доходів, генерованих цінним папером, надходять до інвестора. Дюрація показує період окупності цінного паперу, тобто час повернення коштів, витрачених на його придбання. За економічним змістом поняття дюрації цінного паперу аналогічне поняттю періоду окупності реальних інвестицій.

Дюрація визначається як відношення приведеної вартості суми всіх очікуваних потоків доходів, генерованих цінним папером (зважених за часом надходження), до ринкової ціни цінного паперу. Дю-рація Б обчислюється за формулою (роки)

де С?і — очікувані потоки відсоткових доходів в і-й період (і = 1,...

п); і — періоди проведення виплат; п — загальна кількість періодів; й — ставка дисконтування; N — номінальна сума боргу (або ціна продажу); Р — дисконтована ціна цінного паперу.

Для обчислення дюрації цінного паперу необхідно послідовно розрахувати грошовий потік, коефіцієнт дисконтування, чисту теперішню (приведену) вартість та її зважене значення. На завершальному етапі діленням зваженої теперішньої вартості на ринкову вартість цінного паперу визначають величину дюрації.

Якщо цінний папір генерує потік грошових коштів лише один раз — у момент його погашення, то його дюрація дорівнює періоду обігу. Приміром, трирічний депозитний сертифікат з умовою виплати основної суми і відсотків після закінчення періоду обігу та проданий за номінальною вартістю, має дюрацію 3 роки. Але для всіх цінних паперів, за якими виплати проводяться кілька разів до досягнення строку погашення, дюрація буде коротшою за тривалість періоду обігу.

Приклад 7

Облігація номінальною вартістю 1000 грн погашається через 4 роки і має купон 25 %. Якою буде дюрація цього цінного паперу за умови виплати відсоткового доходу один раз на рік упродовж усього періоду обігу, якщо його дисконтована ціна становить 900 грн? Якому напряму інвестування коштів має віддати перевагу підприємство, якщо термін окупності альтернативного варіанту інвестування становить 3,5 роки?

Середньозважений строк погашення обчислимо за допомогою табл. 11.4.

Таблиця 11.4

Аналіз дюрації цінного паперу

Аналіз дюрації цінного паперу

* Коефіцієнт дисконтування кй знайдено за таблицями приведеної вартості.

Отже, у термінах приведеної вартості період окупності облігації становитиме 3,28 року, що і є середньозваженим строком погашення — дюрацією, а тому підприємству доцільно вибрати саме цей напрям вкладення коштів.

Прогнозний аналіз цінових змін цінного паперу базується на існуванні залежності між змінами ринкових відсоткових ставок і ціною цінного паперу (у відсотках):

де АР — зміна ціни цінного паперу (у відсотках); г* — прогнозована відсоткова ставка на ринку; г — діюча відсоткова ставка.

Вплив відсоткових ставок на зміну вартості цінного паперу у грошовому вираженні обчислюється за формулою:

де АР — зміна ціни цінного паперу (у грошовому вираженні); Р — ринкова ціна цінного паперу.

Для оцінки зміни вартості цінного паперу дюрацію зі знаком "мінус" необхідно помножити на його поточну ціну та зміну відсоткових ставок на ринку з урахуванням дисконту. Цінні папери з високим купонним доходом мають коротшу дюрацію порівняно з цінними паперами, які характеризуються низьким відсотковим доходом на купон і таким самим рівнем ринкової дохідності. Тому цінні папери з високим купонним доходом мають нижчий рівень цінового ризику. І навпаки, низькокупонні папери можуть дати високий дохід за зміни відсоткових ставок на ринку, але при цьому з ними пов'язаний більший ціновий ризик. З огляду на ці закономірності перший тип цінних паперів більше підходить консервативному інвестору, а другий — прихильнику спекулятивного доходу.

Проаналізуємо зміну вартості облігації, яка нині продається за ціною 900 грн, якщо дюрація дорівнює 3,28 року, а прогноз свідчить про підвищення відсоткових ставок на ринку упродовж поточного року з 25 % до 35 %.

Отже, підвищення ринкових ставок на 10 % призведе до зниження ціни облігації на 26,24 %, або на 236,16 грн, і ринкова ціна облігації через рік становитиме 663,84 грн.

Маючи намір придбати певні цінні папери, менеджер підприємства має вирішити, чи прийнятна для нього така цінова чутливість і чи не будуть інші цінні папери точніше відповідати його поточним потребам. Також необхідно оцінити ймовірність значних змін відсоткових ставок на ринку упродовж періоду обігу цінного паперу. Аналіз цих аспектів дасть змогу прийняти обґрунтоване рішення щодо купівлі чи продажу цінних паперів.