Zovnіshnoekonomіchna polіtika - Temples VO

5. ROZDІL monetary POLІTIKA UC warehouses of I ІNSTRUMENT Zep

Sukupnіst monetary vіdnosin scho zdіysnyuyutsya in formі kerіvnih rіshen s formuvannya, rozpodіlu that realіzatsії rolі monetary zasobіv in polі ekonomіchnih vіdnosin in іnteresah that on vimogu domіnuyuchih suspіlnih group in sistemі polіtichnoї Vladi Kraina (abo groupies kraїn) Je monetary polіtika . Je Pong vazhlivim іnstrumentom not deprivation ekonomіchnoї polіtiki zagalom and minutes Zep zokrema.

In normative legal vіdnoshennі monetary polіtika viznachaєtsya Monetary zakonodavstvom, tobto sukupnіstyu Yurydychna regulations scho regulyuyut order zdіysnennya operatsіy s Monetary tsіnnostyami in kraїnі that for її mezhami and takozh Monetary ground - dvostoronnіmi that bagatostoronnіmi - mіzh powers s drive rozv'yazannya currency -Lending problems. Suttєvo scho Basic Elements of the monetary and foreign exchange kreditnoї polіtiki Je regulyuvannya.

5.1. ZAGALNY MEHANІZM CURRENCY REGULYUVANNYA

Operatsії s currency - Monetary vazhlivy іnstrumentarіy Zep. According sutі valyutnі vіdnosini formalіzuyut zovnіshnoekonomіchnі zv'yazki, system mіzhnarodnih ekonomіchnih vіdnosin zagalom.

NATIONAL OF SKIN penny odinitsya Got tsіnu, virazhenu in іnozemnіy valyutі Kraina, tobto monetary, abo obmіnny, course.

Ranіshe valyutnі Kursi bazuvalisya on porіvnyano mіtsnіy zolotіy osnovі. NATIONAL OF SKIN penny odinitsya mіstila Pevnyi Quantity of gold.

Sered ekonomіstіv i dosі poshirene uyavlennya about vsemogutnіst gold navіt Je іdeya to turn the gold standard. Vvazhaєtsya, scho at obmіnі banknotes for gold іnflyatsіya nemozhliva.

Pragnennya utrimati gold standard viyavilo his nespromozhnіst i on cob XX century. Pid hour Pershoї svіtovoї vіyni obmіn banknotes for gold in єvropeyskih kraїnah CCB pripineny, pіslya vіyni lyutuvala іnflyatsіya. Ale refleksії Povernennya zalishalisya to gold. Fіnansovі vіdomstva of Namangan vplivati ​​on іnflyatsіyu zbіlshennyam svoїh zapasіv gold - gold skupovuvali on vіlnomu market analysis for schoyno nadrukovanі paperovі groshі. Result viyavivsya, natural, protilezhny ochіkuvanomu. Right nalagodilis deprivation pіslya zmіni prіoritetіv in groshovіy polіtitsі, s transition to rozprodazhu gold for rinkovimi tsіnami, tobto viluchennyam zayvih banknotes s obіgu that їh znischennyam.

Ale Taqiy Zahid Mauger viyavitisya korisnim not zavzhdi. In the minds gіperіnflyatsії vіn clearly nedostatnіy.

Gold Mauger spravlyati, however, indirect vpliv on obіg penny. Reigning gold sales for tsіnami svіtovogo Rinku daє zmogu zakupiti Flea i zbіlshiti їh propozitsіyu vseredinі Kraina, tobto descho oslabiti trademark defіtsit. However, the role of gold tsіy operatsії printsipovo not vіdrіznyaєtsya od rolі іnshih eksportnih benefits Hoca vono Je bіlsh lіkvіdnim item.

Visokі rinkovі tsіni gold (. To US $ 800) boule naprikіntsі 1979 - 1980 cob p. In 1993-2000 pp. tsіni on zhovto metal kolivalisya mіzh 300-400 dollars. USA for untsіyu.

Ninі in osnovі currency porіvnyannya lie serednі rіvnі trademark tsіn in kraїn-partnerіv. Same to scho cutaneous s uchasnikіv obmіnnoї lands pragne to vigrashu on market analysis rіvnoznachnі obmіnnі Kursi nablizhayutsya s neminuchim zrostannyam i padіnnyam to parity kupіvelnoї spromozhnostі (PKS), kontragentіv currencies. Dotrimuyuchis tsієї logіki, ​​one Dolar EURO including i on pіvtori mozhna buy odnakovu Quantity quiet chi іnshih tovarіv. However, the practice, nayshvidshe not pіdtverdit tsogo poached. Porіvnyuyuchi kupіvelnu spromozhnіst to uwagi take Cart, tobto nabіr tovarіv poslug i, i zagalnodostupnih zagalnovzhivanih scho perebuvayut in mіzhnarodnomu tovarooborotі. Kaushik Dobrobut i poslug otsіnyuєtsya in valyutі kraїn-partnerіv. Pripustimo scho $ 100 in the US vіn koshtuvatime, and Ukraїnі -. 700 UAH. For viznachennya on takіy osnovі Rate $ 1. US stanovitime 7.02 UAH. Potochnі valyutnі Courcy, scho vіdobrazhuyut nerіvnomіrnіst ekonomіchnogo rozvitku, nestіykі, ruhlivіshі, nіzh tovarnі tsіni. Exchange rate naychastіshe keruyut polіtichny klіmat, spodіvannya, nastroї, poboyuvannya, navіt zmіna wait. Vodnochase valyutnі courses as well as self yak i Kursi tsіnnih paperіv, E "dalekoglyadnimi" often stink peredbachayut burhlivі podії.

Teorіyu parity kupіvelnoї spromozhnostі sformulyuvav on the cob XX century. shvedsky ekonomіst Kassel (1886-1945). Іdeyu qiu pіdkazav slit D. Rіkardo. Parity kupіvelnoї spromozhnostі uzyaty basis for vstanovlennі ofіtsіynih Monetary kursіv in Єvropі pіslya Pershoї svіtovoї vіyni. Ninі on osnovі PKS zdіysnyuyutsya mіzhnarodnі ekonomіchnі porіvnyannya. On bazі PKS pratsyuє IMF Svіtovy bank Organіzatsіya ekonomіchnogo spіvrobіtnitstva i rozvitku (OECD).

In dinamіtsі zalezhnіst mіzh tsіnami (P) i exchange rate (e) Got Taqiy viglyad:

Sort order directly zv'yazkom s - s pіdvischennyam tsіn znizhuєtsya obmіnny course natsіonalnoї groshovoї odinitsі - dіє th Auburn zalezhnіst - padіnnya rate generally produces to a new stribka tsіn.

Ninі in Ukraїnі sposterіgaєtsya not deprivation kіlkіsna vіdmіnnіst mіzh ofіtsіynim natural course i scho gruntuєtsya on the PCB, and the second nevіdpovіdnіst mіzh ostannіm i so the title of the course Bіg-poppy (Yogo viznachayut vіdpovіdno to tsіni sandwich). In Ukraїnі tsіni on promislovі Flea is the Hotel vvazhayutsya temple.

Groshі Je zasobom not deprivation obіgu chi payment and th nagromadzhennya. In the minds znachnoї іnflyatsії funktsіyu zasobu nagromadzhennya often vikonuyut not natsіonalnі groshі and іnozemna currency. In tse znovu vtruchayutsya povedіnkovі motives takі yak Dovira to hard currency, ochіkuvannya novih іnflyatsіynih Hvilya speculative azhіotazh toscho. Tsі obstavini spriyayut zrostannyu popitu on іnozemnu currency i pіdvischennya tsіn on neї.

Monetary rinok tіsno pov'yazany s Rinko depozitіv (vkladіv) i tsіnnih paperіv (fondіv). Here at the I GRU vstupaє vіdsotka norm. Yakscho Won pokrivaє ochіkuvany prirіst tsіn i klієnt dovіryaє fіnansovim іnstitutam, the stock rinok Mauger konkuruvati s foreign exchange market. Statistics bagatoh kraїn, zokrema Russie, svіdchit about those, scho at zbіlshennі obsyagіv operatsіy s deposits th tsіnnimi Paper the foreign exchange market vise s side pokuptsіv poslablyuєtsya.

Іnvestori rozmіrkovuyut over Tim yak nadіynіshe rozporyaditisya timchasovo vіlnimi Costa. Yak ob'єkti vkladennya koshtіv rozglyadayutsya vnutrіshnі not deprivation, and th zarubіzhnі assets.

Transfusion "kapіtalnih aktivіv" E vazhlivoyu warehouses svіtovogo fіnansovogo market analysis. Mіzh interest rate, transfusion kapіtalu that exchange rate vіdbuvaєtsya VZAYEMODIYA. Valyutnі Oscillations sprichinyuyut mіgratsіyu aktivіv. Potіm naslіdok peretvoryuєtsya the cause, i transfusion kapіtalu staє putіvnikom Monetary kursіv.

In drugіy polovinі 90 rokіv XX century. protsentnі rates in US pіdvischilis. Tse Pevnyi mіroyu poyasnyuvalo sailed kapіtalnih aktivіv the US. Dolar podorozhchav.

In transfusion kapіtalu zazvichay take the fate of so zvanі garyachі groshі - Costa, scho svіtom wander in search Search pributkovogo vkladennya.

Odne word eksport tovarіv i poslug, іnozemnі іnvestitsії, loans mіzhnarodnih organіzatsіy Je Main statte Monetary dohodіv, scho positive vplivayut on course natsіonalnoї currency. Tim hour іmport tovarіv i poslug, eksport kapіtalu, viplati vіdsotkіv i platezhіv, repayment skorochuyut valyutnі reserve th mozhlivostі pіdtrimki rate natsіonalnoї currency. However mіzh warehouses platіzhnih balansіv іsnuє i zvorotny phone reception.

Rozglyanemo formula

P - Rate product in valyutі

vіdpovіdno іnozemnіy that natsіonalnіy; e - currency exchange rate. Yak butt vіzmemo torgіvlyu h Ukraine US.

Pripustimo, scho course $ 15 pіdvischivsya Og todі in razі zberezhennya quiet themselves vnutrіshnіh tsіn eksporter Mauger otrimati dodatkovy hryvnia Prybutok (5000 Gr).

Dwellers buy for cordon goods for $ 1000, іmporter zmusheny pridbati Dolar, vitrativshi 15000 Gr.

Zrozumіlo, scho for eksportera znizhennya rate natsіonalnoї currency th pіdvischennya Exchange rates partner Je vigіdnim; for іmportera takі zmіni kursіv zbitkovі, ale privablyuє Visokiy course natsіonalnoї currency, oskіlki vіn robit іmportny goods konkurentospromozhnіshim vnutrіshnomu on market analysis.

Tsey vzaєmozv'yazok viyavlyaє printsipovu mozhlivіst vplivu on zovnіshnyu torgіvlyu regulyuvannya through the exchange rate. However podіbnі zalezhnostі on praktitsі not zahischenі od dinamіki vnutrіshnіh tsіn in kraїnah partner. Yakscho іnflyatsіyny processes (pіdvischennya tsіn) in Ukraїnі rozvivaєtsya іntensivno then padіnnya rate grivnі bude vigіdnim eksporteru deprivation todі, if vono perevischuvatime pіdvischennya vnutrіshnіh tsіn. Yakscho padіnnya exchange rate grivnі vіdstavatime od pіdvischennya vnutrіshnіh tsіn, then all one eksporter zaznaє zbitkіv.

Svіdchit guidance about vazhlivіst tehnologії formuvannya exchange rate. Rozrіznyayut Dvi modelі formuvannya ofіtsіynih Monetary kursіv: vіlno plavayuchy i fіksovany course. In osnovі vіlnoplava-yuchoї currency lezhit rinkova rіvnovaga scho vіdobrazhaє spіvvіdnoshennya popitu that Offers natsіonalnoї currency. Plavayuchy course not vimagaє od powers vitrat on yogo pіdtrimannya but vіn nebezpechny for slabkoї currency. Fіksovany course at zhorstkomu varіantі peredbachaє vstanovlennya Pevnyi ofіtsіynogo rate that yogo pіdtrimannya Reigning taps. Fіksovany course koshtuє expensive, before Well sider fіksatsіya Mauger superechiti require real turnover, rozvitku dіlovoї kon'yunkturi toscho. At 60-80 Rokach vіdbuvalosya postupove zblizhennya dvoh protilezhnih models. W one side, skladalasya system "kerovanogo Swimming" for yakogo Power (ECB) zastosovuvala zdebіlshogo come in indirect vplivu, SSMSC Niby vipryamlyali eg zaplivu. W іnshogo side on zmіnu zhorstkіy fіksatsії ofіtsіynogo rate postupovo came "m'yaka fіksatsіya", scho gave zmogu perіodichno (napriklad, schokvartalno) pereglyadati course abo yogo vstanovlyuvati mezhі Oscillations (currency corridor).

Until such zahodіv go from 80 Rokach XX century. on Zahodі. Єvropeyske Spіvtovaristvo zdіysnyuvalo їh schodo rates uchasnikіv, nazivayuchi qiu polіtiku nemilozvuchnim termіnom "zmіya in tunelі".

Fіksatsіya ofіtsіynogo rate naychastіshe suprovodzhuєtsya vіdmіnnostyami in dinamіtsі ofіtsіynogo that bіrzhovogo (rinkovogo) kursіv.

Sprobi descho prigalmuvati pіdvischennya іnvalyutnih kursіv scho nastaє at pіdvischennі trademark tsіn vseredinі Kraina, prizvodyat to piece znetsіnennya on teritorії Kraina hard currency (peredusіm Dolar). Podіbna situatsіya zdatna sprichiniti crisis, "chornі vіvtorki" zdeshevlennya natsіonalnoї currency.

Analіzuyuchi situatsіyu, dohodimo corny, but tsіlkom vipravdanih visnovkіv:

• orієntirom for vsіh Oscillations i vіrogіdnih perekosіv Je camp trumpery obіgu vseredinі Kraina;

• іnflyatsіya neminuche generally produces up zdeshevlennya natsіonalnoї currency;

• "lіkuvannya" exchange rate in the minds trivayuchih peregonіv vnutrіshnіh tsіn not Mauger Buti efektivnosti.

About ymovіrnіst novih Hvilya podorozhchannya Dolar Mauger svіdchiti pomіtne pіdvischennya yogo pozabіrzhovih kotiruvan and takozh INCREASING aktivnіst Monetary maklerіv.

Tendentsіya to padіnnya rate natsіonalnoї currency nepokoїt dіlovі Cola Uryadov th. Torgovі that fіnansovі partners for cordon vіdvertayutsya od nestabіlnoї currencies, scho Shvydko zdeshevlyuєtsya; znizhennya rate natsіonalnoї currency sprichinyuє podorozhchannya іmportu, viplati valyutnoї zaborgovanostі that INSHI operatsії scho vimagayut rozmіnu on іnozemnu currency.

Nayposhirenіshim zasobom sovereign vplivu on course Je Monetary іnterventsіya - Sales of central banks currency ( "Skidanov currency") s metoyu pіdtrimannya tsіnnostі natsіonalnih pennies. Dwellers pіdtrimati obmіnny grivnі rate, the central bank of Ukraine to sell vdaєtsya dolarіv that іnshoї vіlnokonvertovanoї currency. However, at the foreign exchange market zdіysnyuyutsya th aktsії protilezhnogo order: Bank Yaponії zmusheny іnkoli proponuvati ієni i zakupovuvati Dolar for dwellers pripiniti zrostannya exchange rate ієni. Mayuchi korotkostrokovy uspіh, currency іnterventsіya be expensive vimagaє th repetition.

In arsenalі zasobіv valyutnoї polіtiki Je th INSHI dopomіzhnі come in, scho strimuyut padіnnya obmіnnogo rate natsіonalnoї currency. Sered them - manіpulyatsіya interest rates on deposits. Pіdvischennyam vіdsotka vdaєtsya zaluchati valyutnі contribution zbіlshuvati propozitsіyu іnozemnih pennies, scho spriyaє stabіlіzatsії natsіonalnogo exchange rate. So, yaponsky Uryadov, dwellers pogasiti strіmke zrostannya rate ієni th padіnnya Dolar, not deprivation rozshiryuvav propozitsіyu svoєї natsіonalnoї currency on svіtovomu penny market analysis, and the second znizhuvav US vimogu protsentnі rates on deposits in ієnah.

In the minds dії tendentsії іnternatsіonalіzatsії gospodarskogo Zhittya, systems zovnіshnoekonomіchnih zv'yazkіv zagalom VZAYEMODIYA (vzaєmozv'yazok vzaєmovpliv i) pokaznikіv vіdvertostі (exchange rate mіgratsії kapіtalіv, zovnіshnoї torgіvlі) i vnutrіshnoї ekonomіchnoї polіtiki Je nayvazhlivіshim chinnikom rozvitku natsіonalnoї that svіtovoї Economy. Tom zovnіshnya rіvnovaga Economy, rіven exchange rate, the balance of the camp platіzhnogo, ruh kapіtalіv stayut prіoritetnimi tsіlyami ekonomіchnoї polіtiki powers. Іdetsya about natsіonalnu ekonomіku scho spriynyatliva to mіzhnarodnoї dinamіki i at sutі, viznachalno vplivaє on natsіonalny dohіd Kraina; obmіn goods i kapіtalom іz zovnіshnіm svіtom vіdbuvaєtsya through poserednika Yakimov Je obmіnny rate (e). In velikіy vіdkritіy ekonomіtsі tsya vzaєmozalezhnіst weakened valyutnі Sistemi toil viglyad naychastіshe gіbridіv mіzh that e e i tobto mіzh plavayuchim fіksovanim courses. pobudovana Model viglyadі vzaєmodії Kraina that svitu. Navedemo three rіvnyannya:

Pershe s them virazhaє rіvnovagu the IS, dopovnenu the size N - balance on statte precisely operatsіy platіzhnogo balance scho Got dodatne abo vіd'єmne values. Tsey result zovnіshnotorgovelnoї dіyalnostі funktsіonalno deposits od e.

Friend of th tretє rіvnyannya vihodyat Zi became spіvvіdnoshen mіzh vnutrіshnіmi i svіtovimi tsіnami (Pd i Pf).

For steel tsіn P obmіnnі Kursi zmіnyuyutsya time іz zmіnoyu ofіtsіynogo rate. Yakscho obmіnny course vіtchiznyanoї currency znizhuєtsya (napriklad, Dolar-course hryvnia, yaky to become mid-1999 p. 4.65 USD on cob 2001 p. Pіdvischivsya to 5.5 UAH tobto hryvnia podeshevshala 22%), the vіdpovіdno dorozhchaє іmport i descho stimulyuєtsya eksport, balance stream balance descho pіdvischuєtsya (+ Nx).

Vihodyachi s rіvnyan Mundell - Flemіnga sprobuєmo grafіchno zobraziti mozhlivostі fiscal and monetary vplivu planned th at the exchange rate.

Proanalіzuєmo zaznacheny vzaєmozv'yazok i vzaєmovpliv, uzyavshi Sistemi rіvnyan, SSMSC Je dopovnennyam to vzhe vіdomoї modelі makroeko-nomіchnoї rіvnovagi the IS-LM. Takі dії zumovlenі tim, scho rozglyaduvana model pridatna deprivation for analіzu zakritoї Economy. Well Viznachennya dinamіki obmіnnogo rate yogo zalezhnіst od vnutrіshnіh tsіn i protsentnoї skladovoї zabezpechuє Mundell - Flemіnga, yak daє zmogu doslіditi vіdkritu ekonomіku th proanalіzuvati result of plavayuchogo regulyuvannya yak, so i for fіksovanogo obmіnnih kursіv. Vihіdnim becoming mehanіzm vzaєmodії zmіnnih values ​​for maloї vіdkritoї Economy in korotkostrokovіy perspektivі.