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Investuvannya - Shchukin B.M.

Rozrahunok rivna riziku

For rorahunka rivia rizika ser_ya rozrahunkіv held:

1. The basis of the basic objective for the project (for example, NPV), the varied value of the figurative indicator of the effectiveness of investing in the case of high potential situations in Maybut is indicated. The number of such rozrahunkіv is probably n, and the forecast indicator

MRU for dermal plaque NPV І, de і = 1, 2, p. Kіlkіst varіantіv mozhe buti neobmezheno great. Comp'yuterna tehnika yes м I can help you to pick up the roses with the bells and whistles and the accuracy.

2. The average value of the figurative performance indicator of investing with the use of varied rozrakhunіv MRUІ:


de Rіmіmііrnіst maybutnіkh umov, scho vіdobrazhenіі і-m varіantom rozrahunku;

p - the number of rozrahovanih options for the effectiveness of the project.

Mid-square vidhilenniy variantnyh indicators in vid vyh average value

4. Rozrahovuetsya koofіtsієnt variatsії (v), a kind of visnozhaє stepіn vіdhilen varіantіv vіd average value indicator:

You can respect it, but if you take such an investment, if there is a certain variance, it becomes less than 10%. In other words, for the given project, we could have planned more than 10% of the planned income (for the bigger, for the smaller).

For a few options, you can choose a project that needs to be underestimated, so that there is less risk, with a better forecast for the project. Menshom kofіtsієntu variatsії vіdpovіdaє project with a smaller rizik.

Victoria has introduced the formulas for the rosarakhunu rivna rizika for the project on such an application.

Behind a three-phase investment project, it is predicted that the ghosts of ghosts will increase by 400 thousand yards. UAH (pessimistic forecast), 450 thousand UAH (most forecast) 540 ths. UAH (optimistic forecast). Requiring the visibility of the income (to the point of no significance) in predicting a profit for a given project.

Significantly rivie rizika for the project through an assessment of the unintentionality of the forecasted options for the profit. Rozrakhumo mid-square prediction in the middle rozmiru a little bit and some variation of the second.

The average value of the estimated profit for the project beyond the three options

Mid-square v_dhilennya

Koefіtsієnt variatsії

Koefіtsієnt variatsії

From now on, this time in this way, there are more than one possible representation, which is a significant factor of 12.5%. Accepted equal number of invasion rates of up to 10%. However, the price is due to the fact that the skin investor may have his own upper range at the forensic view of the variation - unintentionally uninterested when investing.

As an investor, there is also a new project with such indicators of profitability, ale with some 7% variation, then the first project can be more comprehensive as far as possible.

Investment in investment can be achieved by different methods.

1. Analysis of responsiveness to the result of investing on a quiet basis, to form a final result for a project.

2. Sawing of the scenarios during the implementation of the project and the drawing of the most effective indicators of investment.

3. The implementation of the test results and investment on the basis of the mathematical model of the project.

The sensitivity of the project to the most important factors, which can be used for the project, is as follows:

o the base variant is needed for the project; more indicators for profitability, but for a little profit, but for the term for profitability, or for another indicator of the effectiveness of the project;

o the amount is entered at the value of the indicator, which means the income of the project. All of them can be used, for example, the price of realizable products, the forecast of the number of products for sale, the price of one unit, the rent rate, the degree of ownership, the cost of payment, the cost of reverse assets;

o Again, the performance indicator of the project is redeemed;

o to identify the effectiveness of the performance indicator to the project plus the achieved factor;

o factorization rank for the values ​​of the factor of elastility for the factor;

o indicators, such as the best possible result for the project, respect is especially appreciated when the business plan is invested.

For CIM method otsіnyuєtsya vazhlivіst vplivu okremih faktorіv (Rate realіzatsії, sobіvartіst, obsyag virobnitstva, vartіst obladnannya toscho) to project zagalnu pributkovіst i vіdpovіdno rezultatіv vzhivayutsya to come in schodo bіlsh ґruntovnogo opratsyuvannya іnvestitsіynih planіv scho spriyatime znizhennyu rizikovanostі, pov'yazanoї viyavlenimi of factors.

Analysis of forecast scenarios for investing in a project for transferring a project for development of a project to fall into one's own minds, organizing project management, obvious costs to an investor so much. Scenario - because of the excuses in the main views of the thesis, this, the description is described in the process, in this case - the investment project. The main respect for the script is to come up with the logic of the development of the main line, without the need for details.

Rosrachunks are carried out, for example, for three scenarios: a basic razrakhunok with average open minds, an optimistic option (with a quick stop for all the factors, I’m more likely to come to a specific project),

The performance indicators for investing more and more for the future scenarios are greater, the most negative results are visible, more than once, the scenarios for the investing are unavailable. We’ll want to understand how to think, how to lead to such unimportant scenarios, how to factor factors, how to plan for neutral factors by using the inclusion of unobtained scenarios to develop the process of investing.

The method of achieving the basis of statistics on the basis of statistical testing is based on the fact that, due to the additional enumerated technology, the project is free of risk due to the presence of factor factors at the given ranges of the winter range. The result will be automatic in the average mode and the statistical characteristics of the available options and for the further analysis of the most important for the project indicators and the project for the future.

The method is for realizing the need for special computer programs for projects that are designed for the future.

The stock of rozrahunkіv for analysis of the sensitivity of the project to okremich factors is pointed below. The base version of the rosette of a purely reduced version of the project is at the table. 7. 1, the cooked rosemary NPV with winterized factors for the indicator NPV project - see table. 7. 2. The rating of the okremich factors (in practical terms, the estimate of the elasticity of the indicator of the effectiveness of the project for the factor factor) is shown in Table. 7. 3. Due to the lack of energy, NPV with the most significant changes with a change factor of 1% is twice the price for the realizable products. The factor is most significant in evaluating the project’s maybutnoy. I’ll come to a prediction of a factor that should be most appreciated, that’s why you have to predict the maximum amount of energy for the project.

Dalí go for their important factors, their own individual products, the costs of realizing and investing, discount rates. The guidance of the butt is clever, ale of the haywire may be practically practical: the most important factors are to lay down a little

Table 7.1

The base version of the rohrachunka is given to the project

The base version of the rohrachunka is given to the project

Table 7.2

Rozrahunok varіantnyh value NРV at winter factors

Rozrahunok varіantnyh value NРV at winter factors

Table 7.3

Estimation of significant factors for a given project

The factor, having been so influential on NRV, is up to

Zmіna factor,


Base value NРV

Newer value


Zmina NPV (gr. 5-gr. 4) / gr. 4,%

Зміна NРV for 1% Зміни

factor, gr. 6 / gr. 3%

Factor rating


The oath of oversight



















Own virobnitzstva single products








Obyas іinvestitsіy








Discount rate







the whole investment project, the price of realizable products and the fact that they have one product. Pardonings in their forecasts predict the most negative costs for the project.

Ratings of the most important factors for the investment investment may be made for the skin investment project.

At the time of financial investment, the price of the video card is also determined by the methodology of evaluating the variability of the investment, as well as the variability of the period of incidence of the difference.

For example, the need for visibility of investment in investment 100 yew. UAH for simple accreditation of virological care in general form. The investor will be able to regularly deny streaming income to the viglyad dividend. For the remaining 5 rokіv on the skin of the skin, such dividends were paid as dividends: 5, 3, 4, 1, 2 UAH.

The rosrahunk of the viconєmo for the wickedness of the food by the methodology through the koofіtsієnt variatsії:

1. The middle period of the dividend for the minimum period:

(5 + 3 + 4 + 1 + 2) / 5 = 3 UAH per share.

2. Mid-square dividend dividend bills average bills for the remaining five days

3. Koefіtsієnt variatsії

There are 47% of the refusals of variance, insanely, and great, that is to say about the value of the value of the dividends for the last one, the underestimation of the outflow of the most important thing.

Practicing financial investing in the case of Western methods of model evaluating financial assets (CAPM) unsystematic instrument of investing is recognized for the help of the so-called beta-cooper.

The model of financial assets to become a financial investment in a valuable folder in a warehouse has two warehouses:

o a systematic risk of obligations due to factors that can be immediately consumed on the whole market of valuable servers, and you can see through the effectiveness of the average cost of the entire portfolio (the value of the portfolio, which are stored in the majority of the folders);

o unsystematic rhizic of enticements to a given valuable peer and to lay down other features. Tsey rizik mozhe buti neutralized the inclusion of up to the investment portfolio of valuable servers with the highest level of non-systematic rzizik.
The systematic risk of the valuable folder for the CAPM model methodology can be identified through the value of the so-called beta-coefficient of the valuable folder, which shows the age of the remaining folder, the entire portfolio. Let’s take a look at the technique of the beta-koofіtsієnt of the valuable papara.

1. Beyond the factual payments of the last few periods, the number of the actual cost (R) is the average value of the total (the percentage of the total) of the price = D - L) the average price of the prize for the prize, for the pre-paid income for the non-recessive income.

2. The same prize is awarded for the prize (R) for the same time period at the last minute, if only due to the factual value (L) of the valuable father, a certain amount is achieved. The value of Рd = D - L.

3. Become aware of the regression of the prize for the prize for picking up the Paper (D) and the average prize for the prize (R). Rivnyannya regresіynogo zvyazku matime such a viglyad:


de a - resident member of the regression rivieanny (yogo kіlkіsniy riven is not a small economic interpretation);

b - beta-factor of a valued valuable father, a certain number of deposits for the price of the priest and premium for the price of the price of the folders. Beta-odds may have a value of 0 and more.

As a rule, the price of the papier will be lower than the middle market, then the beta code will be less than one.

As a rule, the priest of the papier is reincarnated in the middle market, then the beta code will be the biggest one.

As a rule, the price of the valuable father is dear to the middle market, then the beta-price is more expensive.

Beta-kojfіtsієnt є an important characteristic of the rivia of the priestly papier. Rosrachunks of beta coefficients on pink stock markets are carried out systematically by analysts, for the skin papier є a statistical series of beta quotes, which can be kept in mind when predicting that there is a greater need for that.

Control food

1. Understanding investment riziku.

2. Systematic rizik.

3. The financial risik.

4. Management of a risik.

5. Rizik participant in the project.

6. The butt of marketing riziku.

7. Political rhizic.

8. Design project.

9. Zagalnoekonomіchny rizik.

10. Unsystematic rizik.

11. Kіlkіsne viznazhennya rіziku through non-indifference іі іківваніх results. Yak tse rosumity?

12. Chotiri etapi kіlkіsnogo rozrahunku rivniya rizika.

13. Sensitivity to the project.

14. Factors of the investment project, which mean the effectiveness of the project.

15. Three rivnies to the size of the vt.

16. Liquidity to the project.

17. Legal rizik project.

18. The rules of scho give zmog zmenshiti rizik.

19. Diversification with investment. її meta.

20. What does it mean to lose revenue?

21. Naysuttєvіshі factors to the project. How are you?

22. The viral rabbit project.

23. The elasticity of the profit margin for the project is to become 0.4, and the total investment is 0.7. What do you mean? What is the most important factor for the project?

24. Koefitsіnt of variatsії for the project dorіvnyuє 12%. Tse good chi filthy? Why?

25. Planuvannya riziku.

26. Model Riziku.

27. Yak rozumіti viraz "іміірність payback to the project to become 70%"?

28. The middle-square vidkhilennya for 10 options vykukuvano profitability of the project to become 67 thousand. UAH Tse good chi filthy? Why?

29. In one project, the mid-square vidhilennya ochkuvanikh varіantіv NPV become 100 thousand. UAH, in the current project - 203 thousand. UAH What kind of project is it? Why?

30. In one project, the coefficient of variance forecasts for the profit becomes 14%, in the current -18%. What kind of project is it? Why?

31. What is the purpose of realizing investment? How can I recommend an investor?

32. Submission to Risik.

33. Strakhuvannya yak sposіb control rizikom. What is insurance? What will be the insurance benefit?

34. Monopolism of the investment project. Tse fucking chi good?

35. Investor's information - all is good, I will lower my freeze. For what about investor investor? Yaka іnformatsіya potrіbna yomu for lower riziku?

36. How can I spend all the activity behind the project?

37. About what to do at the rozdіlі іinvestitsіynogo business plan, dedicated to rizik?

Literature [4, 5, 13, 15].