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Economic analysis - Bolyukh M.A., Burchevsky V.Z.

7.8. Analysis of rozmiru that model and modeling of the main trend of development

One of the most important indicators of the robot і business. The main thing is not only synthesis, all sides of the business, but the most visual efficiency of the business: the revenue, the value of the vitality, the time of the resource in the process of business.

Analizuyuchi ryven a little bit , especially special respect for the added dynamism. Oskilki dynamics characterize the development of real estate per hour, analysis of dynamics will be able to forecast the Maybutny ryvnya і on the basis of this - the recognition of promising direct development of food.

One iz head masters of the analysis of dynamics анов the establishment of the laws of the law of rivnivshchivshchyu, scho vivchatsya. At the table. 7.13 shows the dynamics of the path to the side for business, which can be seen, and in fig. 7.4 - graphically depicted value

Yak Bachimo s rice. 7.4, in addition to systematic and systematic factors, the number of changes in the dynamics of interruption is similar to that of a busy environment, zooming in and out periodically.

In the ranks of the dynamics, there are three stretching rocky shops that are available periodichny warehouses:

  • trend
  • seasonal component;
  • vipadkov component.

Table 7.13

DYNAMICS TO THE BROKEN FOOD FOR THREE ROCKES, yew. UAH

Rik

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

At once

A

12.65

11.9

11,4

10

8.08

8.91

9.61

10.44

11,4

13.3

12.3

14.5

134.6

B

13.87

13.6

13.9

13.1

10.48

11.18

11.26

13,42

13.8

13.36

13.1

14.7

155.7

IN

13.36

13.3

13,2

11.9

9.19

10.83

16,99

18.82

19

19.41

15.7

17.9

179.6

Usyogo for period

39.88

38.8

38.5

35

27.75

30.92

37.86

42.68

44,2

46.07

41.1

47.1

469.8

Fig. 7.4. Dinamika pribdupriemstva a little bit for one river, yew. UAH

Dinamika a little bit of business

The trend. Під hour of analitical virіvnyuvannya next to the dynamics of the law іmіna zmіna іvnya indicator, how to vivchaєatsya, otsіnyuєtsya as a function hour de - Rivne dynamic row, which are ransacked for vidovnim anal rivichny rivnyannyam at the time of hour . The vibration of the formation of a crooked significant world is the result of an extrapolation trend (forecast). The basis for the vibration of the formation of a crooked, buty analysis of daily development of the apparition. You can also twist on the results of the front end at the middle of galuz. In our vipadka the most adequate form of the curve is straight. Rosglyanemo anal rivnanny crooked, so that rivnian mind:

anal rivnivnaya krivoї ,

de t - serial number perііdіv chi momentіv hour.

The parameters a 0 і b are directly covered by the least squares method. The system of normal rivnian in a given vipad maє viglyad:

least squares method

Poshuk parameters_v can be significantly simplified, as a rule, to introduce two functions into the system:

least squares method

Todd parameters can be calculated using the formulas:

Our vipad vіdpovіdnі koofіtsієnti dorіvnyuvatimutu (tab. 7.14):

yew. UAH yew. UAH

Table 7.14

PERSONALITY PARAMETERS RIVNYANNYA TREND TO PURCHASE PIDPRIMENY FOR THE PERIOD AT THREE ROCKY

Rik A

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

louder

y

12.65

11.9

11,4

10

8.08

8.91

9.61

10.44

11,4

13.3

12.3

14.5

134.6

t

–35

–33

–31

–29

–27

–25

–23

–21

-19

–17

-fifteen

-thirteen

–288

yt

–443

–394

–354

–290

–218

–223

–221

–219

–217

–226

–185

–189

–3178

t ^ 2

1225

1089

961

841

729

625

529

441

361

289

225

169

7484

Y

10.05

10,2

10,4

10.6

10.7

10.91

11.1

11.25

11,4

11.6

11.8

11.9

131.9

Rik B

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

louder

y

13.87

13.6

13.9

13.1

10.5

11.18

11.3

13,42

13.8

13,4

13.1

14.7

155.7

t

-eleven

-9

–7

-5

–3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

eleven

0

yt

–153

–122

–97

–65.3

–31.4

–11.2

11.3

40.26

69

93.5

118

162

14.46

t ^ 2

121

81

49

25

9

1

1

9

25

49

81

121

572

Y

12.11

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.8

12.96

13.1

13.31

13.5

13.6

13.8

14

156.6

Rik V

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

louder

y

13.36

13.3

13,2

11.9

9.19

10.83

17

18.82

19

19,4

15.7

17.9

179.6

t

thirteen

fifteen

17

19

21

23

25

27

29th

31

33

35

288

yt

173.7

200

224

226

193

249.1

425

508.1

552

602

516

625

4494

t ^ 2

169

225

289

361

441

529

625

729

841

961

1089

1225

7484

Y

14.16

14.3

14.5

14.7

14.8

15.02

15,2

15.36

15,5

15.7

15.9

16

181.3

Usyogo

y

469.8

t

0

yt

1331

t ^ 2

15540

Y

469.8

This means that in the middle of the average month there is a gain of 0.0856 thousand. UAH, for the middle yy ryvnya for the remaining three rocky at 13.05 yew. UAH And to the outside corner of the trend (Fig. 7.5), matime viglyad:

out of the corner

Actual and theoretical dynamics for the benefit of business

Fig. 7.5. Actual and theoretical dynamics for the benefit of the period for three years

Seasonality. In a wide range, before the seasonal season, they bring us appearances, which is apt to be lawfulness of the greater number of the constant number of long stretches of rock. Using the most rigorous method of urachuvannya seasonality of song singers ищ pobudova vіdpovіdnih indexіv seasonality, yakі rozrahovatsya for this formula:

Indexy seasonality ,

de - the average of the actual levels and the month;

- vіdpovіdnі (virіvnyany behind the trend) the average value of the profit, so as to find the formula:

average profit ,

de - vіdpovіdnі theoretical rіvnі for the і- th month. The results of the season index calendar are presented in the table 7.15.

Table 7.15

ІNDEXI OF SEASONITY DYNAMICS OF RIVNIA TO THE PURPOSE OF THE FEDERATION FOR THREE ROCKES

Rik

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

At once

A

12.65

11.9

11.42

10

8.08

8.91

9.61

10.44

11.41

13.3

12.3

14.5

134.6

B

13.87

13.6

13.88

13.1

10.48

11.18

11.26

13,42

13.79

13.36

13.1

14.7

155.7

IN

13.36

13.3

13.16

11.9

9.19

10.83

16,99

18.82

19.04

19.41

15.7

17.9

179.6

Usyogo for period

39.88

38.8

38.46

35

27.75

30.92

37.86

42.68

44.24

46.07

41.1

47.1

469.8

Signature: 202 The average river for a month

13.29

12.9

12.82

11.7

9.25

10.31

12.62

14.23

14.75

15.36

13.7

15.7

13.05

(rik A)

10.05

10,2

10,4

10.6

10.74

10.91

11.08

11.25

11.42

11.59

11.8

11.9

131.9

(rіk B)

12.10

12.3

12.45

12.6

12.79

12.96

13.14

13.31

13.48

13.65

13.8

14

156.6

(rіk B)

14.16

14.3

14.51

14.7

14.85

15.02

15.19

15.36

15,53

15.7

15.9

16

181.3

Usyogo for period

36.32

36.8

37.35

37.9

38.38

38.89

39.41

39.92

40,43

40.95

41.5

42

469.8

middle

12.10

12.3

12.45

12.6

12.79

12.96

13.14

13.31

13.48

13.65

13.8

14

-

Ісез

1,097

1.05

1,03

0.92

0.723

0.795

0.961

1,069

1,094

1,125

0.99

1.12

-

Indexes of seasonality and dynamics of a return to business

Fig. 7.6. Indexes of seasonality and dynamics of a return to business

Discard the results of those about the dynamism of the seasonal season. In fig. 7.6 can be seen clearly marked by seasonal praise. So, from the cherries for the cheruben, the recession is lower, and from the cherries for the zrosten’s chest for a slight fall in the leaf fall. To understand the characteristics of seasonal seasons, the average squared average index and seasonal index (in%) are 100%, to

mid-quadratic index seasonality seasonality ,

scho in our vipad dorіvnyuvatim

mid-quadratic index seasonality seasonality ,

All the information about completing seasonal seasonality, I will emphasize the dynamics of the return on business. In addition, it seems that the seasonality of zoom in on the real change of the theoretical value by 11.9%.

Vipadkova component. Urahuvannya vipadkovo components are necessary for the forecast Mostly know that there are a lot of vipad factors, we’ll have a clear prediction, a kind of one who’s got his own, є even neuimirim. For an adequate prognosis, it is necessary to have an interval forecast, which should have bioweaked the theoretical theory, and be enriched with vipad factors.

The magnitude of the interactions between the two appears in the title vigle as follows:

The value of the inter ,

de - prediction is not significant (it is better to know it, it is more representative of the trend trend is greater);

- mid-square vіdhilenny vіd trend;

- tabular value t - student criterion for the rіvnya meaning .

Value Be recognized for the formula:

mid-square vіdkhilennya vіd trend ,

de і - the actual factual and theoretical correlation for the seasonal value of the dynamic row (for multiply the necessary theoretical multiplicity by the average index and seasonality);

n - number of rows in a row;

m is the number of parameters in the current trend (for the straight line m = 2).

For our vipadka dorivnyuvatime (tab. 7.16)

mid-square vіdkhilennya vіd trend yew. UAH

Predictably, in such a way, the income of the business, the lap on the lute of the offensive (fourth) rock (ric C), we’ll have an intrinsic forecast:

yew. UAH

yew. UAH

.

Tobto z imіrіnnіstyu 95% Strojuvati is possible, but in the fierce fourth fate (rіk S), the side of the property will become no less than 16.623 thousand. UAH, ale no more than 17,793 tys. UAH

Table 7.16

WALKING OF THE MIDDLE QUADRATIC VIDKHILENNYAR_VNIV IN THE PURBUKT OF THE VI THEORETICAL VALUES CORRECTED BY THE INDEX OF SEASONITY FOR THE PERIOD OF THREE ROCKES

Rik

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

Usyogo

(rik A)

12.65

11.9

11.42

10

8.08

8.91

9.61

10.44

11.41

13.3

12.3

14.5

134.6

(rіk B)

13.87

13.6

13.88

13.1

10.48

11.18

11.26

13,42

13.79

13.36

13.1

14.7

155.7

Signature: 205 (rіk B)

13.36

13.3

13.16

11.9

9.19

10.83

16,99

18.82

19.04

19.41

15.7

17.9

179.6

Usyogo for period

39.88

38.8

38.46

35

27.75

30.92

37.86

42.68

44.24

46.07

41.1

47.1

469.8

At the middle

13,293

12.9

12.82

11.7

9.25

10.31

12.62

14.23

14.75

15.36

13.7

15.7

13.05

(rik A)

10,053

10,2

10,4

10.6

10.74

10.91

11.08

11.25

11.42

11.59

11.8

11.9

131.9

(rіk B)

12,108

12.3

12.45

12.6

12.79

12.96

13.14

13.31

13.48

13.65

13.8

14

156.6

(rіk B)

14,163

14.3

14.51

14.7

14.85

15.02

15.19

15.36

15,53

15.7

15.9

16

181.3

Usyogo for period

36,324

36.8

37.35

37.9

38.38

38.89

39.41

39.92

40,43

40.95

41.5

42

469.8

Zakіnchennya tab. 7.16

Rik

sіchen

lutium

birch

quarter

grass

worm

sticky

sickle

heather

Zhovten

leaf fall

chest

Usyogo

At the middle

12,108

12.3

12.45

12.6

12.79

12.96

13.14

13.31

13.48

13.65

13.8

14

1,0979

1.05

1,03

0.92

0.723

0.795

0.961

1,069

1,094

1,125

0.99

1.12

(rik A)

11,037

10.8

10.7

9.75

7,764

8,673

10.65

12.03

12.5

13.04

11.7

13,4

(rіk B)

13,293

12.9

12.82

11.7

9.25

10.31

12.62

14.23

14.75

15.36

13.7

15.7

(rіk B)

15,55

15.1

14.94

13.5

10.74

11.94

14.59

16,42

17

17.67

15.7

18

(rik A)

0.9685

0.31

0,095

0.66

8,844

5,001

0.189

0.605

1,156

2,103

0.01

2.12

22.06

(rіk B)

1,405

0.44

0.136

0.94

12.55

7,063

0.266

0.846

1,609

2,915

0.02

2.92

31.11

(rіk B)

1.9225

0.6

0.185

1.28

16.91

9.48

0.356

1,127

2,137

3,858

0.02

3.84

41.72

Usyogo for period

94.89

A technique has been demonstrated that will allow me to predict the dynamics of a profit from the benefits of the latest specialties. Vidomo, which means a lot of food, may have seasonal drinks for food, and, at your own home, bring up the seasonal indicators of the state gifts, and especially bring them to the real estate market, the benefits are taken from them. To analyze the dynamics with the seasonality, I will be able to estimate the price of the component by stretching it out and make adequate forecasts for the development of the apparition in Maybut.

Self-service food

  1. Yakі zavdannya put before analysis an auspices of business?
  2. Name the information for analysis and characterize them.
  3. Explain how to form a sideway.
  4. Why is there a little bit of obsession with sound music?
  5. What is a clean move?
  6. Name the factors, which can be added to the side of realization.
  7. To clarify, how to get profit from the valuable folders.
  8. What is also a trend analysis?
  9. Describe reserves zbіlshennya lodging.
  10. Name see profitability and characterize ix.