home Economy Ekonomіchny analіz - Bolyuh MA, Burchevsky VZ

Ekonomіchny analіz - Bolyuh MA, Burchevsky VZ

7.8. Analіz rozmіru pributku that modelyuvannya osnovnoї tendentsії rozvitku

One іz nayvazhlivіshih pokaznikіv robots pіdpriєmstva Je Prybutok. Prybutok not tіlki sintezuє OAO All third-party dіyalnostі pіdpriєmstva and second naochno vіdobrazhaє efektivnіst yogo dіyalnostі: zmіnu dohodіv, value vitrat, rіven vikoristannya resursіv in protsesі virobnichoї dіyalnostі.

Analіzuyuchi rіven pributku, neobhіdno Especially uwagi pridіlyati yogo dinamіtsі. Oskіlki dinamіka harakterizuє rozvitok yavischa in chasі, analіz dinamіki umozhlivlyuє prognozuvannya maybutnogo rіvnya pributku i on tsіy osnovі - viznachennya promising napryamkіv rozvitku pіdpriєmstva.

One іz bunt zavdan analіzu dinamіki Je vstanovlennya zakonomіrnostey zmіni rіvnіv yavischa scho vivchaєtsya. In Table. 7.13 shows dinamіku zmіni pributku for pіdpriєmstva scho rozglyadaєtsya, and Fig. 7.4 - grafіchno zobrazheno tsі zmіni.

Yak bachimo s Fig. 7.4 krіm postіynoї dії systematically i vipadkovih faktorіv, rіven number dinamіki is staying takozh pid vplivom obstavin, zumovlenih perіodichnіstyu Oscillations.

In the ranks of dinamіki mozhna vidіliti protyagom rock three naygolovnіshі perіodichnі skladovі:

• trend;
• seasonal component;
• vipadkova component.

table 7.13

DINAMІKA PRIBUTKU PІDPRIЄMSTVA THREE Rocky, yew. UAH

Fig. 7.4. Dinamіka pributku pіdpriєmstva per Year, yew. UAH

Trend. Pid hour analіtichnogo virіvnyuvannya number dinamіki zakonomіrna zmіna rіvnya pokaznika scho vivchaєtsya, otsіnyuєtsya yak funktsіya hour de - Rіvnі dinamіchnogo row scho їh rozrahovano for vіdpovіdnim analіtichnim rіvnyannyam at the time of an hour . Vibіr FORMS krivoї digit mіroyu viznachaє result ekstrapolyatsії trend (prognozuvannya). Bazoyu for Vibor FORMS krivoї Got Booty analіz sutnostі rozvitku yavischa. Mozhna spiratit takozh on the results poperednіh doslіdzhen tsіy at the Branch. In Nashomu vipadku naybіlsh adequate form krivoї Je straight. Rozglyanemo analіtichne rіvnyannya krivoї, tobto rіvnyannya mind:

.

de t - ordinal number perіodіv chi momentіv hour.

Parameters a 0 i b pryamoї rozrahovuyutsya method for naymenshih kvadratіv. System can have rіvnyan danomu vipadku Got viglyad:

Poshuk parametrіv mozhna uniquely sprostiti, Yakscho introduce qiu slit system two rіvnyannya:

Todі vіdpovіdnі parameters can obchisliti for formulas:

In Nashomu vipadku vіdpovіdnі koefіtsієnti dorіvnyuvatimut (Table 7.14.):

yew. UAH yew. UAH.

table 7.14

ROZRAHUNOK PARAMETRІV RІVNYANNYA trend PRIBUTKU PІDPRIЄMSTVA FOR THREE PERІOD At Rocky

Oznachaє Tse, scho in serednomu schomіsyachno rіven pributku zbіlshuєtsya at 0.0856 yew. UAH per serednogo yogo rіvnya for ostannі three Rocky in 13.05 yew. UAH. A zagalne rіvnyannya trend (Figure 7.5.) Matim viglyad:

Fig. 7.5. Faktichnі that teoretichnі rіvnі dinamіki pributku pіdpriєmstva for perіod in three Rocky

Sezonnіst. In broad rozumіnnі to season vіdnosyat usі yavischa Yakimov pritamanna zakonomіrnіst bіlsh-Mensch postіynogo Oscillations rіvnіv protyagom rock. Nayposhirenіshim method urahuvannya sezonnostі Pevnyi yavisch Je pobudova vіdpovіdnih іndeksіv sezonnostі, SSMSC rozrahovuyutsya for with such a formula:

.

de - Serednya s factual rіvnіv i th mіsyatsya;

- Vіdpovіdnі (virіvnyanі trend) serednі values ​​pributku, SSMSC znahodyat s formula:

.

de - Vіdpovіdnі teoretichnі rіvnі for the i-th mіsyatsya. Result rozrahunku іndeksu sezonnostі will file in viglyadі tablitsі 7.15.

table 7.15

ІNDEKSI SEZONNOSTІ DINAMІKI RІVNYA PRIBUTKU PІDPRIЄMSTVA THREE Rocky

Fig. 7.6. Іndeksi sezonnostі dinamіki pributku pіdpriєmstva

Otrimanі result svіdchat about those scho dinamіtsі pributku pritamannі sezonnі Oscillations. Fig. 7.6 mozhna pobachiti chіtko viznachenu Hvilya season. So, іz sіchnya for Cherven Prybutok spadaє and s chervnya on Gruden zrostaє for Neznachny padіnnya in listopadі. For uzagalnyuyuchoї characteristics Sealy Seasonal Oscillations rozrahovuєtsya serednє quadratic vіdhilennya іndeksіv sezonnostі (in%) 100% od, tobto

.

scho in Nashomu vipadku dorіvnyuvatime

.

tse svіdchit about dosit vіdchutnu sezonnіst, pritamannu dinamіtsі pributku pіdpriєmstva. Saying to Іnakshe, sezonnіst zumovlyuє vіdhilennya real pributku od yogo theoreticity values ​​of 11.9%.

Vipadkova component. Urahuvannya vipadkovoї components neobhіdne for prognozuvannya maybutnіh rіvnіv yavischa. Yakscho znehtuvati vplivom vipadkovih faktorіv, mi otrimaєmo of point forecast, yaky have their Cherga, Je mayzhe neymovіrnim. To adequately prognozuvannya neobhіdno buduvati іntervalny forecast, scho vrahovuvav bi vіdhilennya od theoreticity rіvnya, SSMSC obumovlenі vipadkovimi factors.

The value dovіrchih between viznachaєtsya in zagalnomu viglyadі as follows:

.

de - Vіdpovіdne predictive values (Yogo znahodyat, pіdstavlyayuchi in rіvnyannya trend vіdpovіdne values t);

- Serednє vіdhilennya od quadratic trend;

- Tabulated values of t - Student kriterіyu for rіvnya znachuschostі .

value viznachaєtsya of the formula:

.

de i - Vіdpovіdno faktichnі th teoretichnі korigovanі on sezonnіst values ​​dinamіchnogo number (for znahodzhennya neobhіdno otrimanі teoretichnі rіvnі pomnozhiti on vіdpovіdnі іndeksi sezonnostі);

n - Quantity rіvnіv series;

m - Quantity parametrіv rіvnyannya trend (for rіvnyannya pryamoї m = 2).

For nashogo vipadku dorіvnyuvatime (tab. 7.16)

yew. UAH.

Prognozuyuchi in Taqiy sposіb rіven pributku pіdpriєmstva, napriklad lyuty on the following (fourth) rock (Year C), E otrimaєmo іntervalny forecast:

yew. UAH.

yew. UAH.

.

Tobto s іmovіrnіstyu 95% mozhna stverdzhuvati, scho in the fourth lyutomu rock (Year C) Prybutok pіdpriєmstva stanovitime not less then 16.623 yew. UAH, ale not bіlshe 17.793 yew. UAH.

table 7.16

ROZRAHUNOK SEREDNOGO QUADRATIC VІDHILENNYARІVNІV PRIBUTKU od theoreticity value KORIGOVANIH ІNDEKS SEZONNOSTІ ON FOR THREE PERІOD At Rocky

Zakіnchennya Table. 7.16

Prodemonstrovana technique daє zmogu prognozuvati dinamіku pributku pіdpriєmstva s urahuvannyam vіdpovіdnih yogo Especially dіyalnostі. Vіdomo scho bagato of companies toil season popit on produktsіyu, scho, in its Cherga, generally produces to seasonal Oscillations іnshih pokaznikіv gospodarskoї dіyalnostі, and especially on vplivaє rіven realіzatsії produktsії, obsyagi virobnitstva and otzhe, i on rіven pributku pіdpriєmstva. Tom analіz dinamіki s urahuvannyam sezonnostі umozhlivlyuє otsіnyuvannya tsієї components Oscillations protyagom rock th otrimuvannya adequacy prognozіv rozvitku yavischa in maybutnomu.

Meals for samoperevіrki

1. SSMSC zavdannya constitute prior analіzom pributku pіdpriєmstva?
2. Nazvіt dzherela Informácie for analіzu pributku that characterize їh.
3. Poyasnіt, yak formuєtsya Prybutok pіdpriєmstva.
4. Shcho Takeo Prybutok, obsession od zvichaynoї dіyalnostі?
5. Shcho Takeo pure Prybutok?
6. Nazvіt factors SSMSC vplivayut on Prybutok od realіzatsії.
7. Poyasnіt, yak stvoryuyutsya revenues od tsіnnih paperіv.
8. Shcho Takeo trend analіz pributku?
9. Describe reserves zbіlshennya pributku.
10. Nazvіt Vidi rentabelnostі that characterize їh.