home Political economy Basics of ekonomіchnoї teorії: polіtekonomіchny aspect

Basics of ekonomіchnoї teorії: polіtekonomіchny aspect

§ 3. Dovgі hvilі in ekonomіtsі that їhnіy vpliv on the structure suspіlnogo virobnitstva

Dovgostrokovі tsiklіchnі Oscillations in ekonomіtsі boule viyavlenі vchenimi-ekonomіstami slit in drugіy polovinі XIX century. Anglіysky ekonomіst US Jevons in 1879 p. opublіkuvav randomness Ana lіz Where Money Does Mr. Bula obgruntovana ayavnіst of order іz serednіmi that korotkostrokovimi cycles dovgotrivalih Oscillations dіlovoї ak-tivnostі. About іsnuvannya dovgotrivalih tsiklіv wrote in svoїh robo-s M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky, K. Kautsky, Pareto that іn. GUSTs-rennya naukovoї teorії Dovgy Hvilya pov'yazane s іm'yam rosіyskogo vchenogo MD Kondratєva, yaky on the cob rokіv 20s of XX century. opub-lіkuvav number vazhlivih theoreticity doslіdzhen s tsієї problem. Theo rіya Dovgy Hvilya Kondratєva scho vvіyshla in svіtovu ekonomіchnu lіteraturu yak vidatne vіdkrittya XX century., Suttєvo vplinula on in further rozvitok tsogo directly teoretichnoї pillows, hoch share її author represovanogo in 1931 p., Has been viewed tragіchnoyu.

In nastupnі Rocky teorіya Dovgy Hvilya otrimala svoє prodovzhen-nya in robots such vidatnih scientists, yak Schumpeter, Kuznetsov, K. Clark, P. Samuelson, P. Boccara, L. Fontveyєn, T. Kuchinsky that іn.

Nayvazhlivіshoyu in teorії Dovgy Hvilya Je problem Naukova obgruntuvannya їhnoї materіalnoї basis. Dumka vchenih s tsogo power is ambiguous. Deyakі them vihodyat s s of scho dovgotri-valі cyclic vіdbuvayutsya pid vplivom zovnіshnіh faktorіv rozvitku.

US Jevons, napriklad, pov'yazuvav formuvannya dovgotrivalih tsiklіv i s ekonomіchnih crisis perіodichnіstyu zmіni plyam on Sontsі that їhnіm vplivom on sіlskogospodarske virobnitstvo and Tse vzhe through - on cherguvannya phases in pіdpriєmnitskіy dіyalnostі.

On this protilezhnіst pіdhodu in teorії MD Kondratєva dovgotrivalі cyclic zumovlenі vnutrіshnіmi factors ekonomіch-tion zrostannya. Pong bezposeredno pov'yazuyutsya s tsiklіchnіstyu in rozvitku virobnichih forces suspіlstva, nasampered s їhnoyu Nai revolyutsіynіshoyu Chastain - zasobami pratsі. Blizka to teorії MD Kondratєva pozitsіya Schumpeter, yaky vvazhav, scho head-well role in mehanіzmі Dovgy tsiklіv vіdіgrayut hvilі tehnіchnih-vovveden but i vіdpovіdnі zmіni іnnovatsіynoї aktivnostі pіdpriєmtsіv.

Materіalnu basis Dovgy Hvilya becoming structural ones-a process lennya tehnologіchnogo virobnitstva. Zdіysnyuєtsya vono EYAD Shlyakhov: for au-Perche, evolyutsіyno, if i polіpshuyutsya Vdoskonalyu-yutsya іsnuyuchі tehnologії; Alternatively, revolyutsіyne, if vіdbuvayut Xia yakіsnі zmіni in materіalіzatsії Naukova knowledge.

Tsі Two Roads Ahead dopovnyuyut i zamіnyuyut one single. Evolyutsіy-ny Way daє zmogu vikoristati potentsіal іsnuyuchih tehnologіy i pіdgotuvati minds for stribka in їhnomu rozvitku. Tehnіchnі Revo-lyutsії oznachayut perehіd to novih tehnologіchnih printsipіv, SSMSC potіm rozpovsyudzhuyutsya evolyutsіyno. Zagalnotehnіchnі revolyutsії Strizhnev revolyutsії will melt in the productive forces. Odnochasno zdіysnyu-yutsya stribki i rozvitku in Helsinki Human yak golovnoї produktivnoї Sealy in zrostannі efektivnostі that produktivnostі її pratsі.

Tsiklіchne do updates tehnologіchnih structures productive forces suspіlstva perіodichno povtoryuєtsya, ale, vreshtі-Rasht, tsiklіchny rozvitok productive forces zdіysnyuєtsya pid vplivom ekonomіchnih faktorіv. Іntensivnіst NAUKOVO-tehnіchnih vіdkrittіv i vinahodіv, write s tsogo drive MD Kondratєv, Je funktsіya zapitіv Ekon-mіchnoї dіysnostі th poperednogo rozvitku science i tehnіki. Sam Rose-round science pіdkreslyuvav vіn, vklyuchaєtsya to zakonomіrnogo pro-Cesu ekonomіchnoї dinamіki '. Oznachaє Tse, scho analіz Dovgy tsiklіv not Mauger Buti deprivation obmezheny analіzom tsiklіchnostі tehnіchnih Oscillations. Vіn obov'yazkovo guilty include a takozh analіz Change log in organіzatsіyno-ekonomіchnіy strukturі suspіlstva that rozvitku vlasnostі forms.

Pochinayuchi s pershoї promislovoї revolyutsії kіntsya XVIII - XIX century pershoї tretini. yakіsnі stribki zmіnі in the basal machinery pokolіn i tehnologіy zdіysnyuyutsya in hours furrows 40-50-60 ro-kіv. In Tsikh furrows themselves i pid vplivom quiet materіalno-tehnіch- themselves

i have ekonomіchnih faktorіv zdіysnyuyutsya i dovgotrivalі Ekon-mіchnі cycle. W chasіv pershoї promislovoї revolyutsії i Until the mid XX century. Bulo Dovgy three cycles. W-cob suchasnoї NAUKOVO tehnіch-noї revolyutsії rozpochavsya fourth cycle, yaky i trivaє NOW.

In strukturі dovgotrivalih tsiklіv vidіlyayut two Etap Rozwi-ku - nizhіdnu i viskhіdnu hvilі, abo Fazi. Zvіdsi cycle takozh Got Dvi Fazi.

Nizhіdna phase of the great cycle - perіod zmіni the basal techno logіy i tehnologіchnih structures virobnichoї Sistemi suspіlstva - trivaє 20-25 rokіv. In Tsei hour vіdbuvayutsya gostrі ekonomіchnі Cree-i communication Malih serednіh tsiklіv. A s they utvoryuє vihіdny point for naybіlshih vkladen in tehnіchnі vdoskonalennya, SSMSC boule nakopichenі poperednіm rozvitkom. Vіn takozh bere on itself naybіlshe navanta-zhennya in perebudovі ekonomіchnoї structuring suspіlstva, yak Adek-wadded tehnologіchnomu virobnitstva do updates.

Characteristically risoyu takoї Creasy Je nevіdpovіdnіst іsnuyuchoї SIS those ekonomіchnih zv'yazkіv novіy tehnologії. Tse crisis in 1873 p, yak completed Epoch so zvanoї vіlnoї konkurentsії th poklal cob formuvannyu novoї Fazi in rozvitku pіdpriєmnitstva -. Monopolі-stichnoї. Tse th crisis 1929-1931 pp., Yak became vihіdnim point front rozpovsyudzhennya great-power-structure monopolіstichnoї Turi pіdpriєmnitstva. Tse takozh crisis 1974-1975 pp., S yakoyu pov'yazany rozvitok transnatsіonalnogo pіdpriєmnitskogo sus-pіlstva.

Viskhіdna phase of the great cycle - perіod trivalogo pіdnesennya ekonomіchnogo that NAUKOVO-tehnіchnogo rozvitku suspіlstva. Vіn three vaє od 25 to 30 rokіv. In Tsei hour is not viklyuchenі th tsiklіchnі crisis, pov'yazanі s virobnichih fondіv do updates. Rozvivayutsya stink, yak usually on rіvnі visokoї kon'yunkturi.

Perіod "temple pіdnesennya" - tse perіod masovogo rozpovsyu-Jen novih tehnologіy, zarodzhennya i novih rozvitku provіdnih abo navіt Galuzo Basic Economy. In tsіy fazі vіdkrivayutsya dodatkovі mozhlivostі for otrimannya pributku, rozshirennya іnves-titsіynogo processes, zaluchennya in virobnitstvo dodatkovoї robochoї Sealy, zrostannya zarobіtnoї pay.

At that hour samy s prosuvannyam Economy verhnoї point to the great cycle in the national gospodarstvі pochinayut nagromadzhu-vatisya th protidіyuchі tendentsії. Zrostannya organіchnoї Budova virob-nitstva posilyuє dіyu tendentsії normalized pributku to znizhennya. Zros-taє napruga on market analysis pozikovogo kapіtalu, pіdvischuyutsya vіdsot-kovі rates. Nagromadzhuyutsya INSHI superechnostі, SSMSC vzhe nemozhem-Livo, Lombardy rozv'yazati on evolyutsіynіy osnovі tehnologіchnogo virobnitstva do updates. Pochinaєtsya gliboka crisis, yak Yea cob novoї, nizhіdnoї, Fazi great cycle.

Sort order іz stvorennyam Naukova bases dovgostrokovogo forecast-vannya ekonomіchnoї structuring suspіlstva teorіya Dovgy Hvilya daє zmogu viyaviti takozh fundamentalnі zakonomіrnostі rozvitku tієї chi іnshoї ekonomіchnoї system. Vzaєmozalezhnіst mіzh zmіnoyu ba-crisis tehnologіy (great tsiklіv) i Glibin perebudovoyu VJ robnichih vіdnosin, napriklad pіdpriєmnitskogo virobnitstva, Got Taqiy viglyad: Perche tehnologіchnomu cycle (dovgіy hvilі) vіdpo-vіdaє domonopolіstichne pіdpriєmnitstvo, zasnovane on vіlnomu rin-kovo-competitive mehanіzmі; drugіy dovgіy hvilі - monopolіs-cal pіdpriєmnitstvo s rinkovo-competitive gospodarskim mehanіzmom, yaky monopolіstichne regulyuєtsya; tretіy hvilі - ne-rіod great-power monopolіstichnogo pіdpriєmnitstva s great-power mono polіstichnim competitive rinkovim mehanіzmom gospodaryuvannya.

Urahuvannya ob'єktivnoї vzaєmozumovlenostі Dovgy tsiklіv the roses-round process for tehnologіchnogo virobnitstva vіdpovіdnogo Once- i-nya ekonomіchnoї structuring suspіlstva daє mozhlivіst Naukova obgruntuvannya Suchasnyj Etap pіdpriєmnitskogo virobnitstva. Yogo cob pripadaє the other half of the 70 rokіv. In ekonomіch-nіy lіteraturі yogo nazivayut transnatsіonalnim.

Basics strukturnoї perebudovi virobnichoї bazi transnatsіo-tional kapіtalu Je Novi cycle NAUKOVO-tehnіchnoї revolyutsії, yaky pochavsya naprikіntsі 70 rokіv. Tsey cycle gruntuєtsya on shirokіy іnternatsіonalіzatsії structuring vіdtvorennya, rozvitku resursozberі-gayuchih tehnologіy, elektronnіy avtomatitsі, bіotehnologії, іnfor-matitsі. For forecasts vchenih, vіn trivatime to another desyatilіt-cha the following stolіttya. Vvazhaєtsya scho ninіshnіy complete cycle іndustrіalny type rozvitku zagalnoіstorichnogo processes. On zmі well-Yomou Come postіndustrіalna tsivіlіzatsіya. Tsim viznachaєtsya Especially skladnіst (superechlivіst) suchasnoї virobnichoї the structure-ri ekonomіchno rozvinutih kraїn. Won Got perehіdn i od іndust-rіalnoї to postіndustrіalnoї strukturnі characteristics.

Velikі cyclic pritamannі yak kraїnam s rozvinutoyu rinkovoyu ekonomіkoyu so i kraїnam command admіnіstrativnoї system. Gly-bean krizovoe potryasіn Economy kolishnogo CPCP i skhіdnoєv-ropeyskih kraїn, yak fell down on the other half of the '80s -' 90s cop rokіv, zumovlena not tіlki deformatsіyami command admіnі-strativnoї system. Tsі ekonomіchnі potryasіnnya boule pov'yazanі s non-obhіdnіstyu dokorіnnogo tehnologіchnogo pereozbroєnnya virobnitstva, viklikanogo novim Etap NAUKOVO-tehnіchnoї revolyutsії.

On vіdmіnu od Promyslova rozvinutih rinkovih kraїn, CEC de-lіchnі factorization Dovgy Hvilya viyavilisya in seredinі 70 - by Pochat-ku 80 rokіv, chasovі mezhі in kraїnah command admіnіstrativnoї SIS those zsunulisya priblizno on desyatilіttya. HEAD factor tsogo vіdstavannya becoming bіlsh nizky rіven rozvitku tehnіki i tech-

logії. Otzhe, іsnuє th ob'єktivna zumovlenіst spіlnostі number of re-creation mehanіzmіv upravlіnnya, organіzatsіyno-ekonomіchnih structure tour i have forms vlasnostі kraїnah s rіznim ekonomіchnim ustroєm. Pee tannya not samіy problemі, while the forms i її rozv'yazannya methods.

Schodo Ukraine, then there is no crisis gliboka Ekonomichna Je-ni tsiklіch Noah ni dovgohvilovoyu. Won Je Chastain vseohoplyuyuchoї crisis, yak vitіkaє s: for au-Perche, strukturnoї transformatsії narodnogospo-darskih proportsіy in zv'yazku s rozpadom kolishnogo єdinogo virob-nichogo spaciousness within CPCP i torn down kolishnіh virobni-chih zv'yazkіv that nestvorennyam vіdpovіdnih ekonomіchnih; Alternatively, transformatsії ekonomіchnoї system in tsіlomu one in tretє, h prac-tichnoї nekerovanostі tsimi transformatsіynimi processes in the poppy-rorіvnі in the minds, if NATIONAL Power tіlki formuєtsya.