Modeluvannya ekonomiki - Vіtlіnskiy V.V.

1.6. The economy of the yak folding system is intrabudgetary

One of the characters of the movie Moliere "The Mistress of the Nobility" - the good-hearted Jourdain - from the podivom diznaєt'sya, scho vin uzey svo zhittya rozmovlyav prozoyu. Deshio is similar to the situation in the economy in the economical science and economics of cybernetics. Economisti on the zorі rozvitku polіitchnoї ekonomії vychali problems, kotrі zgodom buli znacheni yak kiberneticchny. So, the stink looked at the processes of managing and regulating economical systems, so that they are stored in the same way as they do. Tse Bulo Zadovgo before, yak tsі pitaniya buly systematized th chichko formoloванovany y zagalnoteoterichnomu plan kibernetikoyu.

Здатність до абстрагування властива человеському розумові. Vaughn dozvolyaє Yomou Nadachi vіdnosno tochnoї FORMS svoєmu mislennyu, sformulyuvati principle the іnstrumentarіy ekonomіko-ically mathematical modelyuvannya so i rank virobiti metodologіyu - knowledge systems, yak harakterizuєtsya logіchno vzaєmouzgodzhenimi tverdzhennyami i garmonіynim vzaєmozv'yazkom okremih ekonomіchnih distsiplіn.

Professor of philosophy O. Spirkin nagoloshuyu * 6, scho in our time, basic science of the theoretical and economical block ( politeconomy - one of the most well-known galusies of a human knowledge, and such a macro-microeconomy) spirayutsya on ekonomiko-mathematica modulyuvannya, scho nadae chim Science dodatkovoї accuracy, strictsti schodo systematization osmislennya factoV, theoretical vitlumachennya їх, orієntovannogo істиність that maximally can be practiced втілення. A professor of economics Oleg Gavrilishin * 7 pishe about neobhіdnіst shirshogo vichoristan in economical analiticheskih pіdhodіv, zokrema teorії dinamichnyh sistem. Profesor Yu Kozeletsky, vіdomy exercises at the Branch psihologіchnoї teorії rіshen in ekonomіtsі have svoїy monografії * 8 widely-vikoristovuє ekonomіko matematichnі i Metodi modelі, algoritmіchnі strategії, teorіyu riziku stosovno to teorії rіshen yak subject Naukova doslіdzhennya.

* 6: {Spirkin AG Philosophy: A Textbook. - M .: Gardariki, 1999.}

* 7: {Gavrilishin O. The basic elements of the theory of rink systems. - K.: Science. Dumka, 1992.}

* 8: {Kozeletsky Yu. Psychological theory of solutions. - Moscow: Progress, 1979.}

It is possible to speak about the vzaimoproniknennya in the stagnant process of the political sciences of economical sciences, which is more vichoristic to them, the principles of mathematical modeling, methodological basis, and about the development of mathematical modeling on the presentation of the latest scientific knowledge. Tse priobnovo it is important, for a protractile vipadku zanepadatimut rizni form mizhditsiplіnarnogo dialogu, zbіdnyuvatimutsya ekonomichna nauka i osvita Ukrayiny.

Potrybno nagoloshiti: tseSusuetsya skinny us, truncated, is the object of our pisnannya, є a part of our life. The "Recognize Yourself", the accursions on the architrave of the old-time temple at Delphi, is the foundation of the fundamental truth, which is an elementary rule for pre-ordinarily zastosovuvati to the rarities of economics and economics, especially in cybernetics.

З погляду теорії систем економіку слід віднести до клана динамічних, слабостотутующихх великих складності. The system is to be stored in the velikoznoy kіlkosty gospodarskih komіrok, yakі perebuvayut tisnіy, neperevnіy vzaimodії one with one. Okrim addition, economist mya jaskrawo virazhenu ієрархічну, bagatіvnevu structure, for anchor rіvenь ієрархії інтегрує behind the rules (algorithms) of information signals (flows) of lower rivnіv ієраріїї та оперує інформаційними by aggregates.

Vodnochas itself ekonomika post yak pidstsistoy stosovno to sushpilstva zagalom; But until the ending of the rest, the yogi rozvitok is far from vycherpuyutsya suto ekonomichnimi processes. Suspisity in the social structure, the systematic system, the potential of the culture, the moral principles, the mentality is the call of the middle peasant, the elements of the economic economy. Tsya vzaimodіya not є determinovanoyu (uniquely). Vona vidbuvaetsya for duma straightforward - for the call of the middle peasants that navpaki.

Economical cybernetics resovljada ekonomiku, її structuralny that functional blocks yak sistemi, yakih vidbuvayutsya process regulyuvannya y upravlennya, scho realizuyutsya ruhom і peretvorennyam informatsii. Nogolosimo, sho information, one side, - a generator of social and economic systems, and in the same hour, the other - the unrecognized neznaznachensti tiozhenozogo tsimizu in economics. Here principally important is the innovative character of information, and won for signatures can not be perebachuvannuyu.

Dedalі more vichii-ekonomistiv vigorously, scho oskilki sotsіalno-ekonomichna system is not moe octektivno given zovnishnyogo impulse rozvitku, then von can characterize yak taka, scho samorozvivaetsya. "Palm", scho zabezpechuyu rozvitok tsієї sistemi, є nova іnformatsіya. Akademіk Rosіyskoї Academy of Sciences Mykola Petrakov detail analіzuє rіznі aspects generuvannya novoї Informácie in sotsіalno-ekonomіchnіy sistemі: "... Navіt zalishayuchis in furrows vіdnosno prostoї scheme" will require that іndivіda mehanіzmi їh zadovolennya "E zіshtovhuєmosya s postіynoyu i nepovnіstyu peredbachuvanoyu pulsatsієyu sotsіalno-ekonomіchnoї System. A person who recently recently went into a state of gratification with a socially-economical medium, the "rapture" is beginning to embody the new cultural, social, and esthetic character of the vikazu, unhappy with the iniquity of the pratsi. Ці вимоги створюють відповідний інформаційний "шум" у системі, introduce the element of non-передбачуваності й випадковості. Vlasne, Tse "noise" є budivelnim material for generuvannia novosti іnformatsії s sotsіialno-ekonomichnyi sistemy. Mіmo mіmo postіyniy von vipadkovy zburen ', on kotromu y vinikayut' sotsіialno-ekonomichnyi mutatsії * 9.

* 9: {Petrakov N. Ya. Russian roulette: an economic experiment worth 150 million lives. - Moscow: Economics, 1998.}

In economical postinoy stimulus genereuvannya novii informatsії є takozh rivalry, kotra automatically vidkrivaєe way naukovo-tehnichnim vinokhodam. You can count on the multiplicity of the values ​​of sub'ektiv, yakі - the dzherlom neznaznachenstі, tochno.

Spinima on active pitanney schodo unrecognized in economics. Unexpectedness - that is, not to peddle unequivocally, and for sub'ektiv in the economy of economy and business, trebov vrahovuvaty i osobistіsny chinnik, yaky vplivaye on analiziz situatsii ya priinyattya rishen. Unaccounted for the cause of a rizik.

Otzhe, rizik vnutrishno pritamniy ekonomitsi ta biznesu. Economical rizik rozzhuzhitsya neiznachenіstyu (nevіdomіstyu, nedostovіrnistyu, ambiguity), confliktnistyu. Наголосимо, що ризик виникає за умови наявності альтернатив рішень, планів, інвестиційних та інноваційних проеків тощо. Якщо відсутні альтернативы, відсутній і ризик, але й відсутня freedom of the vibor, scho otbavlyaet people of the basic zїї characteristic signs (розум, вільна воля, здатність творити).

At naukovyh pratsyah it is necessary to talk about the principle of systemic analysis in the economical sphere, zigidno zakimi be-yaku ekonomichnu system - sense tractuyak yak taku, about yak us not all vizdomo і not all tilkom zrozumilo, tobo ya misti elementi unrecognized riziku * 10. In principle, a system with a deficiency in the structure is not strictly accurate, but it is not absolutely accurate for the perebachenes of the sub-procession and processing, but not for the viscous zvnіshnіm vplyvami tescho. Particular view is unidentified posta vidapkovіst situatsії, if the form (mnogina) podi і vіdomim, alle okrema podія mozhe yak by the way, so i not in the way. Tobto can enter the field field podi (scenarios) - taku їх multiply, one element of the anchor nastaє.

* 10: {Вітлінський В. В. Аналіз, оцінка і modulyuvannya ekonomichnogo risiku. - К .: DEMIUR, 1996.}

Оскільки здебільшого обраний вызник ефективності (якості) годарських (фінансових) операцій (проеків) є недетермінованою size, then zazvicha pripuskuyutsya гіпотеза, for the sake of the tsju value †"sense ввжати випадковою чи чи розввівній (нечіткою).

In the economy of the country, in the lower reaches of the region, I shall look at the territory of the country on pristavi by means of the systems of hypothyrosis, zokrema, through the accessibility of the information, information and information. A tse prizvodit to risiku vidhilennya vіd tsіley, before nedotrimannya ochikuvanyh result, mozhlivyh zbitkiv, yakі mozhut viniknuti through lack of oboruntovannost (pomilkovist, inadequate) quiet chіnshih gipotiz (pripuschin). Щоб урахувати ступінь ризику й хоча б частково уникнути можливих збитків, потрібно, якщо є така змога, перевіряти істиність гіпотез (припущень). Tse zmozhna zdіysniti, zokrema, for the method of interpreting statistical statistics, which can not be universal in nature, the wars in the eyes of the hypothesis can be filed by the may of the priests in the sphere of economics and business. Techniques for the conversion of statistical Hypotheses to be made up to the calculation of the actual values ​​of special, adequate values ​​for those situations, criterias and portraits, and table values ​​for a pivotal, specified pivot value (chiriziku).

Stupin riziku to lay takozh vіd stavlennya sub'ekta priinyattya rіshen (upravlінської a commander) up to ynogo: skhilnostі, nehil'nostі, bajduzhostі. Tomu vse chinniki neiznachenosty, konfliktnosti zumovlennogo them riziku podlyayut on ob'ektivnі ta sub'ektivny.

Otzhe, mozhna dakie tak ekzachennya ekonomichnogo risiku, scho basietsya on the principles of system analizu.

Rizik, Yakima obtyazhena Ekonomichna dіyalnіst - tse Ekonomichna kategorіya scho vіdbivaє harakternі osoblivostі spriynyattya zaіnteresovanimi sub'єktami ekonomіchnih vіdnosin ob'єktivno іsnuyuchih neviznachenostі that konflіktnostі, іmanentnih processes tsіlepokladannya, upravlіnnya, of acceptance rіshen, otsіnyuvannya.

Nogolosimo, scho rizik mae dialektichnu obektivno-subektivnu structure.

Otsіnka riziku Je bagatovimіrnoyu quantities scho harakterizuє mozhlivі vіdhilennya tsіley od, od Bazhanov (ochіkuvanogo) result mozhlivu nevdachu (zbitki) s urahuvannyam vplivu kontrolovanih (kerovanih) i nekontrolovanih (nekerovanih) chinnikіv, direct i zvorotnih zv'yazkіv.

Існує ціла система показників кількісної оцінки steps up the risziku. Alya vіd zhodnogo kilkisnogo showbiz (kіlkіsіnі оцінки) stepping up the rhizik not slіd ochіkuvati, schо vіn nаvazuvatime adequate results for be-like obstinations. In other words, the installation of the first iodic display of yak kіlkіsnoy mіri (step) іzіzіkі - іѕ thе breakthrough іѕ a lack of signifiсity, characterizing the vipadkovu value (effektivnіst, zbotki) by one (єdіnym) otkaznik (number). On our Dumka, kіlkіsna otsіnka riziku Je bagatovimіrnoyu values ​​(vector) components yakoї vіdbivayut rіznі Grani riziku th formuyutsya fallow od methylene doslіdzhennya, vzyatoї Sistemi gіpotez, sub'єktivnogo chinnika, yaky harakterizuє representations sub'єkta riziku (upravlіnskoї command) to that neviznachenostі Riziku, tochno.

Nagolosimo scho expired Je zavdannya pobudovi aksіomatichnoї teorії obrannya pіdmnozhini kіlkіsnih pokaznikіv stage riziku (s mnozhini mozhlivih) stosovno to ob'єkta doslіdzhennya, obranoї Sistemi tsіley, systems gіpotez and takozh representations to Demba sub'єkta riziku (upravlіnskoї team), those urahovuyuchi , Що ризик є економічною категоrієєю, має діалектичну об'єктивно-суб'єктивну structure.

Odnієyu s bunt yakostey Suchasnyj kerіvnika, ekonomіsta, pіdpriєmtsya, system analіtika Je vmіnnya zdіysnyuvati correctly analіz, ROBIT vibіr іz mnozhini varіantіv Alternatively, zdatnіst іti on rizik in Rozumny furrows, navichki ratsіonalno pratsyuvati in the minds neviznachenostі, nepovnoti that asimetrії Informácie, konflіktnostі. Chim skladnіshim i neviznachenіshim Je sotsіalno-ekonomіchne seredovische, team aktualnіshim Je neobhіdnіst urahuvannya riziku, pobudova th udoskonalennya adequate іnstrumentarіyu yogo analіzu, modelyuvannya that upravlіnnya rizikom ambushes on the synergies that pіdhodіv system.

By the hour of the theory of economical risk (rizikologiya) burzhivo vyvivayutsya.