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Modelyuvannya Economy - Vіtlіnsky VV

4.6. Polіtichny rizik, gross vnutrіshnіy product that zovnіshnіy Borg

Svit - tsіlіsny (tsіlіsna system) to vazhlivo vrahovuvati those scho takі Tsarina suspіlnogo Butt, yak ekonomіka, polіtika, Culture vzaєmodіyut i vzaєmopronikayut. Vazhlivo rozrіznyati їh, ale rozrіznyati oznachaє not іzolyuvati and peredusіm Dolata plutaninu that vrahovuvati їh vzaєmozalezhnіst (vzaєmozv'yazok). Roz- glyanmo vzaєmozv'yazok (otsіnku) stage polіtichnogo riziku that deyakih klyuchovih makroekonomіchnih pokaznikіv.

Meals polіtichnogo riziku sogodnі staє Especially vazhlivim for analіzu ekonomіchnogo potentsіalu Kraina, її ekonomіchnoї BEZPEKA. Scope vplivu polіtichnogo riziku on the Danian time of Je dosit a spreading viyavlyayuchis in vtratі Patent i avtorskih rights obmezhennі rights of individuals on the ground that INSHI resources obmezhennі access to Pevnyi rinkіv toscho. Poyasnyuєtsya Tse note scho polіtichne seredovische dosit tіsno pov'yazane s ekonomіkoyu. Dedalі chastіshe polіtichna Borotba tochitsya of acceptance of the quiet chi іnshih ekonomіchnih rіshen abo metodіv (sposobіv) їh zdіysnennya. However slіd pam'yatati scho polіtichny rizik porodzhuєtsya neviznachenіstyu, nestabіlnіstyu Uriadovy rate stosovno to bіznesu, іnvestitsіynoї, іnnovatsіynoї polіtiki, zvolіkannyam s ratsіonalnim virіshennyam nagalnih power to rіvnі zakonodavstva abo neposlіdovnіstyu rіshen, konflіktnіstyu mіzh mainly gіlkami Vladi toscho.

Іsnuє low techniques kіlkіsnoї otsіnki polіtichnogo riziku. The main tse - ekspertnі otsіnki. Before them nalezhat: іndeksi scho їh obchislyuє Іnstitut Hanera (polіtichny rizik here graduyuєtsya scale of 0 to 25 od umovnih odinits) ekspertna scale on bazі modelі Hanera (od 0 to 100 umovnih odinits), "Prince-model" (od -125 to +125), іndeksi BERI (od 0 to 100) toscho. Rozglyanmo one s nayposhirenіshih techniques otsіnki polіtichnogo riziku - technique nіmetskoї fіrmi BERI (Іnstitut Informácie riziku in bіznesі). Zgіdno s danoyu technique rіven polіtichnoї stabіlnostі (chi nestabіlnostі, tobto polіtichny rizik) viznachaєtsya for Relief іndeksu BERI. Yogo kіlkіsnim vimіryuvannyam zaymayutsya blizko 100 ekspertіv, SSMSC Vier Razi vprodovzh rock for Relief ekspertnih otsіnok analіzuyut osnovnі aspects polіtichnoї that ekonomіchnoї situatsії in kraїnі. About, yak zapovnyuyut (anonіmno) fahіvtsі s rіznih kraїn, mіstit 15 otsіnnih detalіzovanih kіlkіsnih kriterіїv. Cutaneous power otsіnyuєtsya for ballroom-scale vіdsotkovoyu that Got p'yat varіantіv vіdpovіdі: 0 - Duzhe good, 1 - good, 2 - zadovіlno, 3 - shits, 4 - nepriynyatno. Chim bіlsha Quantity zіbranih balіv, team Vishcha ymovіrnіst polіtichnogo riziku. Application form filed tablitsі 4.6 * 3.

* 3: {Economic Security Essentials (state, region, company, person) / Ed. EA Oleynikov. - M .: ZAO "" Intel-Synthesis "Business School", 1997. - S. 78.}

table 4.6

Questionnaire for viznachennya іndeksu BERI

Vіdomim Je takozh rozpodіl mіri polіtichnogo riziku 9 stupenіv. Polіtichny rizik pov'yazuєtsya s obsyagom zovnіshnogo Borg i mozhlivostyami Kraina svoєchasno yogo viplatiti. Oskіlki obidva pokazniki (zovnіshnіy Borg that polіtichny rizik) Yea one s basic kriterіїv otsіnki rated Kraina svіtovomu on market analysis, Bulo b dotsіlno otsіnyuvati їh complex, s urahuvannyam їh vzaєmozv'yazku. Proponuєmo Taqiy varіant otsіnyuvannya vzaєmodії polіtichnogo riziku s admissibility rіvnem zovnіshnogo Borg.

Vikoristovuyuchi kіlkіsnu otsіnku (rating) polіtichnogo riziku can know yogo korelyatsіyno-regresіyny phone reception іz zovnіshnіm Borg Kraina. Thus, osnovі randomness danih schodo ekonomіchnogo i'm polіtichnogo Ukraine mozhna pobuduvati ekonometrichnu model zalezhnostі stage polіtichnogo riziku od obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg. For inventory tsієї zalezhnostі dorechno vikoristovuvati krivі zrostannya. On pіdstavі analіzu vіdpovіdnih danih nevazhko dіyti visnovku scho qiu zalezhnіst dosit adequately Describe model, yak Got Taqiy viglyad:

. (4.77)

de Rp - stupіn polіtichnogo riziku; B - rіven zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі,? i? - Koefіtsієnti regresії; u - vipadkova quantity.

Analіzuyuchi nayavnі danі can sklasti vіdpovіdnu table (Table. 4.7). Ostannіy stovpchik mіstit pokaznik polіtichnogo riziku, yaky otsіneno for Relief modelі (4.77). Yak easily peresvіdchitisya, vіdhilennya theoreticity danih, otrimanih for її Relief, od danih, otrimanih by BERI, zdebіlshogo not Je digit. Pіslya viznachennya koefіtsієnta determіnatsії, yaky for nashogo vipadku becoming R 2 = 0.903549, that pіslya vikonannya F -test mozhna tverditi scho model (4.77) Je adequate. Okrіm tsogo koefіtsієnt rozbіzhnostі, zaproponovany G. Theil, Je Neznachny takozh, scho pіdtverdzhuє adekvatnіst danoї modelі:

.

Zaznachimo, scho in vipadku іdealnogo prognozuvannya v = 0.

Otzhe, zaproponovanu model (4.77) can be zastosovuvati for analіzu away.

table 4.7

Zovnіshnya zaborgovanіst that polіtichny rizik Ukraine for 1993-2000 pp.

* Statistichnі danі vzyatі Zi zvіtіv Mіnіsterstva fіnansіv.

** Danі vzyatі s rozrahunku polіtichnogo riziku for kraїn for by BERI.

W look around to priynyatnіst danoї modelі (a »49.88; b» 3.38) pobuduєmo curve (. Figure 4.5) zalezhnostі quantities polіtichnogo riziku od zovnіshnogo Borg (yak Got Sens in Pevnyi іntervalah values ​​obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg that kіlkіsnoї otsіnki stage polіtichnogo riziku).

Fig. 4.5. Zalezhnіst stage polіtichnogo riziku od obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg

Rozglyanmo dev'yat stupenіv Wink polіtichnogo riziku: Ex-1, ..., R-9. Pripustimo, scho for Ex-Borg 1 becomes 1; Ex-2 - B 2; Ex-9 - In 9. And in the 1 <B 2 <... <B 9 is the Pr-1 <<Pr-2 <... <Pr-9.

Digit іnteres becoming otsіnka obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg fallow od otsіnki stage polіtichnogo riziku.

Served on rice. 4.6 ploschina obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg schodo stage polіtichnogo riziku Je critical admissibility rіvnem obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg powers Quest (Bazhanov) stage polіtichnogo riziku. The point, scho roztashovana vische neї, Je Poperedjennia about Visokiy polіtichny rizik i, yak naslіdok, polіtichnu that ekonomіchnu crisis (vіdsutnіst neobhіdnogo obsyagu іnvestitsіy, nespriyatlivu asimetrіyu torgovelnih vіdnosin s іnshimi kraїnami toscho). Dana tverdzhennya Je obedient minds of spravedlivostі gіpotezi for yakoyu Rasht vazhlivih makroekonomіchnih pokaznikіv Je steel. For otsіnyuvannya polіtichnogo riziku s tsogo Look Bajan brati neoklasichnі pokazniki stage riziku: semіvarіatsіyu that semіkvadratichne vіdhilennya.

Viznachiti zalezhnіst zovnіshnogo Borg od polіtichnogo riziku mozhlivo, vikoristavshi model * 4:

* 4: {Makhanets LL Zovnіshnіy Borg i rizik polіtichny // Fіnansi Ukraine. - 2000. -№ 2. - pp 64-69}.

for minds, scho

(4.78)

de B - zovnіshnіy Borg; Im - іmport; Ex - eksport; T - pributki powers; G - vidatki powers; e - vipadkova quantity (vіdhilennya); Y - vnutrіshnіy gross product; C - nevirobniche (NKVD) spozhivannya; I - valovі іnvestitsії; M [Y (Rp)] is the M [Im (Rp)] - ically mathematical spodіvannya zalezhnostі vnutrіshnogo gross product that іmportu (vіdpovіdno) od polіtichnogo riziku Rp; M [•] - ically mathematical operator spodіvannya.

For Relief modelі (4.78) that s urahuvannyam minds platospromozhnostі, yak zaproponuvali M. Burda that Charles Wyplosz * 5, you can takozh viznachiti critical admissibility rіven zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі s urahuvannyam stage polіtichnogo riziku.

* 5: {M. Burda, Wyplosz Ch Makroekonomіka: Єvropeysky context / ed. s English. - K .: BASIS, 1998. - S. 614.}

Fig. 4.6. Ploschina obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg stosovno to stage polіtichnogo riziku

Umov platospromozhnostі Got Taqiy viglyad:

(4.79)

In de - zovnіshnіy Borg; F - privatnі zarubіzhnі assets; Ex that Im - eksport that іmport; i * - vіdsotkova rate (yak Typically, LIBOR).

Vikoristovuyuchi model (4.78), s nerіvnostі (4.79) otrimaєmo:

. (4.80)

Dorechno takozh ustanoviti zalezhnіst stage polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni GDP (D Y). Mozhna tverditi scho denote bіlshy obsyag GDP growth (D Y), Tim Mensch guilty Buti polіtichny rizik (zvichayno for Rasht rіvnih minds).

Vihodyachi Zi randomness danih schodo will ukraїnskoї Economy, korelyatsіynu zalezhnіst stage polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni GDP can be yak taxes:

(4.81)

de Rp - stupіn polіtichnogo riziku; D Y - zmіna obsyagu GDP; u - vipadkova quantity.

Vіdpovіdnі danі factuality stage polіtichnogo riziku (s obchislenogo zgіdno іndeksom BERI) is the stage polіtichnogo riziku, otsіnenogo for zaproponovanoyu vische korelyatsіynoyu zalezhnіstyu (4.81), suggestive in tablitsі 4.8.

table 4.8

Zmіna GDP that polіtichny rizik for 1993-2000 pp.

* Statistichnі danі vzyatі Zi zvіtіv Business Central Europe, September, 2001.

** Danі vzyatі s rozrahunku polіtichnogo riziku for kraїn by BERI.

Yak bachimo, in 1994 became rotsі rіzke padіnnya GDP, scho pogіrshuє results of our rozrahunkіv. Tom for vivedennya zalezhnostі polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni GDP abstraguymosya Informácie od for Tsey Year, zgladzhuyuchi danі.

Pіslya Carrying vische analіzu mozhna viznachiti otsіnku zalezhnostі (vzaєmozv'yazku) stage polіtichnogo riziku od dvoh chinnikіv (GDP zmіni that zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі), yak matim viglyad:

. (4.82)

In Nashomu vipadku koefіtsієnt determіnatsії becoming R 2 = 0.937932 and otsіnny koefіtsієnt determіnatsії = 0.917243. Vikonany F-test that koefіtsієnt rozbіzhnostі for G. Theil v (v = 0,30 for danoї zalezhnostі) pіdtverdzhuyut scho Yea model adequacy.

Znayuchi otsіnku zalezhnostі zmіni obsyagu gross product vnutrіshnogo od stage polіtichnogo riziku she minds platospromozhnostі (fіksuyuchi Rasht іnshih pokaznikіv) can pobuduvati grafіk zalezhnostі stage polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni GDP i zovnіshnogo Borg (Fig. 4.7).

Fig. 4.7.Otsіnka zalezhnostі stage polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni obsyagu GDP that zovnіshnogo Borg

Otsіnka zalezhnostі stage polіtichnogo riziku od zmіni obsyagіv GDP that zovnіshnogo Borg feeding surfaces (shaded Chastina). Z Fig. 4.7 can be seen, scho pid hour zrostannya zovnіshnogo Borg B vіdbuvaєtsya zrostannya stage polіtichnogo riziku Rp. Vodnochase Zi zrostannyam GDP (D Y) stupіn polіtichnogo riziku znizhuєtsya. Viznachivshi qiu zalezhnіst can prognozuvati boundary permissible value zovnіshnogo Borg for Bazhanov (prognozovanogo) rіvnya GDP i section setting polіtichnogo riziku. For tsogo otsіnyuvannya that analіzu dorechno vikoristovuvati yak one іz varіantіv model (4.82) is the vіdpovіdnu, The image in Fig. 4.7 surface KOTRA Je otsіnkoyu obsyagu zovnіshnogo Borg for Pevnyi, viznachenogo (prognozovanogo) values ​​otsіnki stage polіtichnogo riziku that prognozovanogo obsyagu zmіni GDP. Rіven zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі scho yogo power matim for Bazhanov stage polіtichnogo riziku that prognozovanoї zmіni GDP znahoditsya on zashtrihovanіy poverhnі (Fig. 4.7). Zaznachimo, scho for pіdvischennya rating on mіzhnarodnіy arenі Power pragne zniziti stupіn Svoge polіtichnogo riziku. W pattern viplivaє, scho for great values D Y (scho oznachaє ekonomіchne zrostannya) Krajina Mauger i dopustiti great zovnіshnіy Borg for vіdnosno small stage polіtichnogo riziku (at svіtovіy praktitsі tse spravdzhuєtsya US). For vіd'єmnogo D Y that nizkogo rіvnya zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі stupіn polіtichnogo riziku Je dosit temple (s zgіdno nashoyu Modell - from 50 vische i).

Zi zrostannyam zovnіshnіh kreditіv (pozichok) (for D Y <0) polіtichny rizik rіzko pіdvischuєtsya.

W urahuvannyam (4.82) can be pobuduvati іzokvanti riziku for Rp = const = C), peretvorivshi vіdpovіdnim rank (4.82):

. (4.83)

Abo pіslya Pevnyi peretvoren

. (4.84)

Pripustimo scho nabuvaє With a value of 50, 55, 60, 65 toscho. Todі map іzokvant (4.84) ​​Got viglyad:

Slіd zauvazhiti scho neobhіdno Brother:

W urahuvannyam vischenavedenih mіrkuvan mozhna pobuduvati іzokvant riziku map (Fig. 4.8).

Fig. 4.8. Map іzokvant riziku

Map іzokvant riziku dozvolyaє prognozuvati zmіnu zovnіshnogo Borg s urahuvannyam Bazhanov stage polіtichnogo riziku that prognozovanoї zmіni GDP.

So rank, zaproponovana model daє mozhlivіst viznachiti іnterval zmіni rіvnya zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі, yaky not Veda power to borgovoї crisis.

Otzhe, prognozuyuchi rіven sotsіalnogo encampments, stabіlnostі polіtichnogo rate stupіn konflіktnostі mіzh gіlkami Vladi, іndeks іnflyatsії toscho, tobto stupіn polіtichnogo riziku and takozh prognozuyuchi obsyag GDP growth can prognozuvati i ratsіonalny rіven zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі, yaky vіdpovіdaє values ​​prognozovanih chinnikіv i yaky Mauger sobі dozvoliti Uryadov. Bіlshy obsyag zovnіshnіh borgіv prizvede to zrostannya stage polіtichnogo riziku (schodo prognozovanogo, Bazhanov), znizhennya rated power on mіzhnarodnіy arenі that to pov'yazanoї s CIM low negativity yavisch (napriklad znizhennya іnvestitsіynoї privablivostі).