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Model of economics - Vіtlіnsky V.V.

4.6. Political riser, gross domestic product and official borg

Light is tsilіsny (tsіlіsna system), that is why it is important to keep in mind those who are the tsarini of suspension butt, as economics, politics, culture, interaction and mutual penetration. It is important to separate х,, ale to separate означ means not є олю олю олю,,,,,, а а, а а а а а а а а пл пл пл пл пл пл,, but for transferring to plutanin and vrakhovuvati є х є - оз оз оз - є оз ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок ок. Let’s take a look at the link (estimate) of the political policy and the key macroeconomic indicators.

The nutrition of the political rhyme of the old year is especially important for the analysis of the economical potential of the country, the economically safe. Sphere I will pour political poise on Denmark a moment є to achieve a wide, patent rights and copyright rights are protected, rights of an individual are secured on land and there are other resources, access is limited to singing risks, too. All this is explained by the fact that it’s more politic to finish the middle of the meeting with the economy. Grandfathers are often politically struggling to take care of quietly accepting the most economical solutions anyway (methods). However slіd pam'yatati scho polіtichny rizik porodzhuєtsya neviznachenіstyu, nestabіlnіstyu Uryadova rate stosovno to bіznesu, іnvestitsіynoї, іnnovatsіynoї polіtiki, zvolіkannyam of ratsіonalnim virіshennyam nagalnih power to the rіvnі zakonodavstva abo neposlіdovnіstyu rіshen, konflіktnіstyu mіzh mainly gіlkami Vladi toscho.

Існує low methods of social assessment of political rhizic . Basically, they are expert evaluations . They should include: Yandex, I’ll enumerate the Institute of Haner (here I can see a polytychic scale for a scale of 0 to 25 smartest ones), an expert scale for the base model of Haner (kind of 0 to 100 smartest ones), “Prince-model” to +125), Yandex and BERI (from 0 to 100) skinny. One of the most comprehensive methods for assessing political riziku is the BERI methodology of the Russian company (Institute of Information Technology in Business). From this methodology, political stability (such as instability, political security) is identified for the BERI auxiliary index. Nearly 100 experts are interested in yoga, and some times have a lot to do with the fate of other expert assessors to analyze the main aspects of the political and economic situation in the country. Questionnaire, yak to remember (anonimno) fakhіvtsі z іzіznyh kraї, revenge 15 otsіnnyh detailed details kіlkіsnih criterіv. Skin nutrition is assessed behind the ball-and-white scale, and that’s varied choice: 0 - good, 1 - good, 2 - positive, 3 - bad, 4 - unacceptable. Chim bіlsha kіlkіst zіbranih balіv, tim vishcha ymіrnіst polіtichnogo riziku. The questionnaire form is given in table 4.6 * 3.

* 3: {Fundamentals of economic security (State, region, enterprise, person) / Ed. E.A. Oleinikova. - M .: CJSC "Business School" Intel-Synthesis ", 1997. - S. 78.}

Table 4.6

Application for Visa BERI

S / n

Pitanna

Pitoma vaga nutrition in the integrated indicator, %

Krajina (Bali, which is the largest indicator)

1

Political stability in the country and in the country for economic life

12

2

Shuttering to foreign investment

6

3

Stupin and varianti natsionalializatsії

6

4

Імівірність та ступінь devaluation currency

6

5

Payment Balance Mill

6

6

Bureaucracy

4

7

GDP growth rate (GNP)

10

7a

The rate of growth of GNP (lower than 3% in rik)

2,5

7b

The rate of growth of GNP (3% to 6%)

5

7c

The rate of growth of GNP (6% to 10%)

7.5

7g

GNP growth rate (10% higher)

10

8

Currency conversion

10

9

Analysis of vicarious contracted goiters'yazan

6

10

Vitrati pay for labor wages and labor productivity

8

eleven

Help in expert and consulting services

2

12

Organization of transport and transport

4

thirteen

Hundreds of sovereign organs

4

14

Wash off short-term loan

8

fifteen

Umovi rimannya and vikoristannya pre-contractual loan and the state capital

8

Usyogo

100

Vidomim є takoz rozpodіl mіri polіtichnogo riziku at 9 steps. The political rizik will be obligated to take the oath of the homely Borg and the abilities of the country of a wholly viplatiti. Oskilki insulting indicators (official borg and political rizik) є are one of the main criteria for evaluating the rating of the country for a universal market, it would be difficult to fully evaluate them completely. It’s a propone of such a variation of the political modality with a permissible equal to the old borg.

Victory-winning assessment (rating) of political poetry, you can know the most relevant-regression sound and recognition of the Borg of the country. So, on the basis of statistical data about the economical and political camp of Ukraine, it is possible to encourage an economical model of the occurrence of the political grade level of the common oath of the old borg. For a description of the fallow season, it’s prematurely vikoristovuvati curves zrostannya. It is unimportant to go to the front door in order to analyze the data, so that I’ll keep an adequate description of the model, like this kind of wiglet:

. (4.77)

de Rp - step politic riziku; Q - is there a degree of bargaining? і? - some registers; u is the vipadkova value.

The analysis is available, it is possible to add a table (table. 4.7). Ostannіy stovpchik revenge index political policeman, which is estimated for the auxiliary model (4.77). Yak is easily retransmitted, a vidhilennya of the theoretical tributes, otrimanikh for Ії auxiliaries, a vid of the danim, otrimanich by the BERI method, zdebilshogo is not significant. After writing the identification number of determinations, it’s important for us to set R 2 = 0.903549, so that we can understand the F test to be hard, model (4.77) is adequate. Surrounding the number of rozbnosti, protopovaniya G. Teylom, also є insignificant, scho pidtverdzhuє adequacy of the given model:

.

Subsequently, the ideal prediction v = 0.

Otzhe, the model (4.77) is protected, it is possible to stasis for a fake analysis.

Table 4.7

Zovnіshnya bargaining and political rhizic of Ukraine for 1993-2000 pp.

Rik

Зовнішній борг, billion dollars ( B ) *

Political Rizik ( Rp ) **

Political rizik (estimates on the base model)

1993

0.396

52

52.01289

1994

3.624

55

56.3249

1995

4.828

59

57.31828

1996

8.217

59.58277

1997

8.839

59.94317

1998

9.555

60.34267

1999

11.472

61

61.34393

2000

12.438

61.81668

* Statistical data taken from the Ministry of Finance.

** Please take it from the list of political poetry for the country behind the BERI method.

Looking at the acceptance of this model (a »49.88; b» 3.38) I will induce a curve (Fig. 4.5) of the occurrence of the political index of the external borg (the minimum rate in the singing intervals is the value of the total economic margin).

Dependence of the step of the political rіziku of the oath of honor of the foreign borg

Fig. 4.5. Dependence of the step of the political rіziku of the oath of honor of the foreign borg

Let’s show nine steps, I will manifest a politic rhizic: Pr-1, ..., Pr-9. It is permissible that for Pr-1 the Borg should become B 1; Pr-2 - In 2; Pr-9 - B 9. Moreover, in 1 < B 2 <... < B 9 and Pr-1 <<Pr-2 <... <Pr-9.

Significant interest in becoming an estimate of the oath of a foreign borg is fallow in the estimation of the stage of political rhizic.

Filed in fig. 4.6 the area of ​​the oath of the official borg of the step of the political rhizic є is critically permissible the equal of the oath of the official borg of the state for the given (bajan) level of the political rhizic. The point is that the food of the neo is rooted, еред at the same time about the high political rіzik і, as well as the large, political and economic crisis (the lack of necessary investment liability, the unacceptable asymmetry of foreign trade). Dana firmly є let’s listen to you for understanding the fairness of hypotheses, for such a solution to important macroeconomic indicators є steel. To evaluate the political rhyme of the whole world, the brothers neoclassical indicators of the degree of rhizicism are shown: seven times and seven times.

Visnazity zessnіshny borgu vіd politichesky rizik possible, victorious model * 4:

* 4: {Makhanets L. L. Zovneshniy Borg and Political Rizik // Financial Ukraine. - 2000. —№ 2. - S. 64—69.}

for think

, (4.78)

De B - The Boss; Im - import; Ex - export; T - profits of the state; G - vidatki power; e - vipadkova value (vіdhilennya); Y - gross domestic product; C - nevirobniche (osobist) living; І - shaft investment; M [ Y ( Rp )] and M [Im ( Rp )] - mathematically matched gross domestic product and import (political) type of political Rp ; M [•] - operator of mathematical method.

For the supporting model (4.78), remember the platos for urahuvannyah, yapropoduvali M. Burda and Ch. Viplosh * 5, you can also see the critically permissible level of conventional trade with urakhuvannyam at the level of political riziku.

* 5: {Burda M., Viplosh C. Macroeconomics: контекстEuropean context / Transl. from English - K .: Osnovy, 1998. - S. 614.}

The plinth of the oath of the old-fashioned borg is completely close to the step of the political rhizic

Fig. 4.6. The plinth of the oath of the old-fashioned borg is completely close to the step of the political rhizic

Umova plateau of maож such a viglyad:

, (4.79)

de B - the Boss; F - private foreign assets; Ex and Im - export and import; і * - bid rate (as a rule, LIBOR).

The victorious model (4.78), with the roughness (4.79), is clear:

. (4.80)

It’s also possible to establish the level of politic rizik in the form of GDP (D Y ). I can tell you why the biggest oversight is the increase in GDP (D Y ), the lesser than half the political risen (of course, for decisive souls).

Vihodyachi zi statistical danyh I will become the Ukrainian economy, to relate to the fallow of the stage of political rziku vid vpn GDP can be given:

, (4.81)

de Rp - step politic riziku; D Y - snake the oath of GDP; u is the vipadkova value.

The official date of the actual level of political rhizic (listed by the BERI index) and the level of political rhizic, estimated for the protected food by the correlated seasoning (4.81), is shown in table 4.8.

Table 4.8

Zmina GDP and political rzik for 1993-2000 pp.

Rik

Zmina GDP, % *

Political Rizik **

Political rizik (estimates)

–14.2

52

52.00815

–22.9

55

–0.89507

–12.2

59

59.00599

-10

64.474

–3.2

66.60757

–1.7

64.07402

–0.4

61

60.99995

6

33.9748

* Statistical data taken by Business Central Europe, September, 2001.

** Please take it from the list of political poetry for Krai using the BERI method.

Yak bachimo, in 1994, the growth rate of GDP fell, the results of our sales. In order for the introduction of political diversity in the form of GDP, the abstract is informative for the price, given.

After a conducted analysis, it is possible to evaluate the estimation of deposit (interchange) of the stage of political inspection of two official records (of GDP and standard trade), as well as of matrimony:

. (4.82)

In our video card, the determinism determinations become R 2 = 0.937932, and the determinant determinations = 0.917243. Vikonaniy F - test and oddity of distribution for G. Theil v ( v = 0.30 for given fallow lands) to verify that the model is adequate.

Knowing the estimation of the fallow rate of the oath of the gross domestic product is the highest step of the political index and the wisdom of the platform (the quickest decision of the last indicators), you can stimulate the graph of the fallow rate of the political index of the 4.7.

Otsіnka deposits of a step of a politichesky riziku

Fig. 4.7.Assessment of the depth of the level of political recession in the form of the oath of GDP and that of the old borg

Estimation of the depth of the stage of the political recession in the form of GDP and that of the former borg is filed on top (the part is shaded). 3 pic. 4.7 it can be seen that right now there is an increase in the level of the Borg B in order to increase the level of the political Rp . The water hour of GDP growth (D Y ) is lower than the political level. By recognizing these deposits, it is possible to predict the marginally permissible value of the estimated borg for the bazhen (predicted) level of GDP and the given level of political rhizic. For the whole assessment and analysis, it is premature to say that there is only one model (4.82) that is shown in fig. 4.7, on the top, which is the estimate of the oath of the official boss for the singing, signaled (forecasted) value of the evaluation of the political policy level and the forecasted promise of the GDP. The level of bargaining, which is the power of the mathim for the bajan stage of the political rhizic and the predicted winter GDP, can be found on the shaded surface (Fig. 4.7). Substantially, for a half-rated rating at the international arena, the state should lower its steps in its political politics. From the drawing it’s hot, for the great values ​​of D Y (which means economical growth), the country can suppose the great zealous boss for a very small degree of political security (for the practical world it can be done for the USA). For a whole lot of D Y and a low level of competition, there is a high level of political ritual є to finish high (it’s 50% of our model).

Zіstrostnyam zovnіshnіkh credіv (pozichok) (for D Y <0) political rizik r_zko p_dvishchuєsya.

With Urachuvanniam (4.82), it is possible to induce izokvanti riziku for Rp = const = C ), having transformed the validation order (4.82):

. (4.83)

Abo Pislya song replay

. (4.84)

It is permissible that with C, the value is 50, 55, 60, 65 skinny. Todi map izokvant (4.84) ​​maє viglyad:

Please respect, scho brothers need to:

In the case of extracurricular awareness, you can get the map of quantization (Fig. 4.8).

Map Izokvant Riziku

Fig. 4.8. Map Izokvant Riziku

The izokvant card allows you to forecast the forecast of the future of the bourgeois union of the political step and the forecasted GDP of the GDP.

Thus, the model was granted the power of visibility, the interval between the borders of the cities, which does not lead the state to the crisis of crisis.

Otzhe, prognozuyuchi rіven sotsіalnogo encampments, stabіlnostі polіtichnogo rate stupіn konflіktnostі mіzh gіlkami Vladi, іndeks іnflyatsії toscho, tobto stupіn polіtichnogo riziku and takozh prognozuyuchi obsyag GDP growth can prognozuvati i ratsіonalny rіven zovnіshnoї zaborgovanostі, yaky vіdpovіdaє values ​​prognozovanih chinnikіv i yaky Mauger sobі allow the squad. The biggest oversight of foreign bargains has been brought up to the stage of political rzizik (more predicted, bazhan), lower the rating of the state in the international arena and lower negative gains (for the most part, lower them).