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Фінансова статистика - Shustikov A.A.

2.4. The main methods of statistics of the state budget

Vikonannya sovereign budget to analizuetsya vidnosnyh figures vikonannya plan for income that vidatkami in tsilomu, and takozh for okremimi іh species і tsіlovim prisichennyam. Such analiz daet zmugu is not deprived of the same sukunnu otsinku vikonannya budget, but I characterize the stage vikonannya plan for kozhnoju gruzoyu produkiv i izdatkiv, reportedly proanalizuvati that group of income void vidatkiv, for the apparent vyyavleno istotnі vіdhilennya actual dannyh vid plannovanyh, ascertain, chim booleau vidhilennya actual Nadohodzhen vіd plannonovyh.

Pririst sumi subatomic income is possible for two reasons: zarostannya podatkoy basi і зміни в оподаткуваніі. The first kind of zmіn podatkovkih priznіv priinyato nazivati ​​automatic efektom, others - discretionary. Ці зміни по'язані з виды фі-скальної політики.

Discretionary fіskalna polіtika - tse zakodіv, yaka peredachaє tsіlesprjamovanі zmіni in rozmіirі sternіvnyh vitrat, podatkіv іr balance of the state budget. Taka polistika zastosovuyutsya power to actively prodіdії cycleіchnim kolіvіnjam in ekonomіі. To stimulate a sucking drink in the period of the economic recession, the rate of unemployment is directly related to the deficit of the state budget, which is the most severe of the current tax payments. Відповідно в період підйому цілеспрямовано stоворяється budget overhead.

For nondiscretionary (automatic) fiskalnoy polits of deficit and budget supernumeraries, automatically in the course of the automatic stabilization of economics. The automatic stabilizer is a mechanism that allows you to change the cycle time in economy without conducting special economic activities. Such stabilizers are progressive payment system and transfer payments.

Rozglyanemo butt rozraunku vplyu on pririst sumi a payment for a surplus of payments and an organisation rate of a payment and a payment basis. For the sake of one another, 2.1.

Table 2.1

TRAFFICKING ON ARRIVAL, RETURNING THE SOCKET OF ISSUE BY ARRIVAL IN THE REGION, yew. UAH

Actually, the sum of the tax on the surplus of pidpriemstv zrosla porivnyano z planovoi on 1000 yew. UAH To clarify:

• The actual change in the rate of the rate of payment for 6.7 pp -

yew. UAH;

• By the increase of sums, the surplus of receipts and organisations -

yew. UAH

To raise the income of the state budget with the most important macroeconomic indicators, in them it is possible to peresvidchitsya, povoduvalivi paralelnі dinamichnyi ryadi, rivnyannya regressii i zastosavavshi batalofaktornі iindeksnі modely.

For the analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators of the state budget of Mozhoki, the system of indices (for example, indices, indices of mean values, etc.).

So, for calculating the amount of collapsible macroeconomic indicators on the budget of the state budget, an indepen- dent model is predicted:

We have the opportunity to vlyavlyaetsya vplyv on dohіd state budget:

• Rozmiru gross entry (BB) ( a );
• The gross domestic product (GDP) portion of the gross output ( b );
• Ssivvidnoshennaya gross national income (GNI) and the gross domestic product (c);
• Ssivvidnoshennya pure national national income (VNND) and gross national income ( d );
• Part of the income of the state budget at the gross national income ( e ).

Algorithm rozv'yazannya tsієї batalofaktornoi indeksnoi model for rozraunku absolute growth і tempo increment income of the state budget for rahunok okremih factorov polagae at such:

• On the first stage of development, with viznachenny factoring of absolute increments vidbuvaetsya rozraunok rivnya income of the state budget from the loss of the first, the first two, three, the chotoryoh ta p'yati factoryv model:

Y 1 a = Y 0 Ia ;

Y 1 a, b = Y 0 IaIb ;

Y 1 a, b, c = Y 0 IaIbIc ;

Y 1 a, b, c, d = Y 0 IaIbIcId ;

Y 1 a, b, c, d, e = Y 0 IaIbIcIdIe ;

• For viznachennya absolute increases in income to the state budget for rahunok vzrymh factorizov vikoristovuyutsya word:
• Absolutely zmіni income main budget for rahunok zmіni gross vipusku - ;
• Absolutely zmіni income main budget for rahunok zmіni part of the gross domestic product of the gross vipusku - ;
• Absolutely to the income of the state budget for the rakhunok zmіni spivvodnoshenniya gross national income and gross domestic product - ;
• Absolutely zmіni income main budget for rahunok zmіni spivvidnoshennya gross national real income and gross national income - ;
• Absolutely to the income of the state budget for rakhunok zmіni part of the income of the state budget at the gross national income - .

Otzhe, absolute pririst income to derzhbyudzhetu become:

.

Розглянемо використання пропонованого алгоритму на прикладі. For the sake of one another, 2.2.

Table 2.2

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, million UAH.

Now it is computable for the richest ric indicator portraits-factor of theindex model.

Table 2.3

FACTORS OF THE INDEX MODELS

Todi:

Y 1 a = Y 0 Ia = 80 • 1,5 = 120 million UAH;

Y 1 a, b = Y 0 IaIb = 120 • 0.89 = 106.8 million UAH;

Y 1 a, b, c = Y 0 IaIbIc = 106.8 • 0.87 = 92.92 million UAH;

Y 1 a, b, c, d = Y 0 IaIbIcId = 92.92 • 1,039 = 96.54 million UAH;

Y 1 a, b, c, d, e = Y 0 IaIbIcIdIe = 96.54 • 1.038 = 100 million UAH.

Million UAH. - Absolutely contrary to the income of the state budget for the raznok zmіni gross release;

Million UAH. - Absolutely to the income of the state budget for rakhunok zmіni part of the gross domestic product of the gross release;

Million UAH. - Absolutely to the income of the state budget for rakhunok zmіni spіvvidnoshenniya gross national income and gross domestic product;

Million UAH. - Absolutely to the income of the state budget for rakhunok zmіni spivvidnoshennaya gross national income income and gross national income;

Million UAH. - Absolutely to the income of the state budget for rakhunok zmіni part of the income of the state budget at the gross national income.

Pririst income to become a budget:

For the add-on of the bagatofaktornoi індексної моделі вивчають вплив факторів (factorial sign) on the result (resultant indications) from the stores of the kіlkіsіoї міри впливу (given for the incentives of theindex model are imposed in Table 2.4.

Table 2.4

INDICATIONS OF BAGATOFACTORINDINEX MODELS

The indeksnaya model is motivated by such spivvodnoshenney:

1. Загальні надходження до Державной бюджету України? ? Shallow podatkovkih nadokhodzhen at zagalnih razdohozhnney Derzhavnuju budget = Submittal to the sovereign budget of Ukraine in the absolute meaning.

2. Submittal to the Budget? A cluster of direct submissions from the zagalnye podatkovkih nadokhozhnney Derzhavnogo budget + Straight feeds from the absolute znachennі.

3. Direct cash payments? Chastka podatku on pributok at direct podatoks = the Submission on pributok at absolute znachennі.

Such a rank, for the add-on of the bagatofaktornoindex model, vivchayut vplyv dinamiki skin factor in the end result - dinamiku podatku on pributok pidpriemstv.

1. Roshraunkok zagalnogo іndeksu a payment for pributok pіdpriєstva:

yew. UAH

Absolute vplyiv yodok yiz piznitsu mizh chiselnikom і znamennikom. Він дорівнює 5 535 621,53 тис. UAH

2. Rosrakhunok indeksu podatku on pributok pіdpriєmstv for rahunok zmіni zagalnih nadohodzhen up to the state budget:

yew. UAH

Absolute vplyiv yodok yiz piznitsu mizh chiselnikom i znamennikom. Він дорівнює 1 347 407,29 тис. UAH

3. Rozraunok a tax on the surplus of goods for the rakhunok zmіni parts of the podatkovkih nadohodzhen at zagalnih nadokhozhnney to the state budget:

4. Rosrakhunok indeksu podatku on pributok pidpriemstv for rahunok zmіni a part of direct podatkіv at podatkovikah nadohodzhenni up to the state budget:

5. Rosrakhunok indeksu podatku on pributok pidpriemstv for rahunok zmіni pokatku on pributok pіdpriєmstv in obyazі priimyh podatkіv at podatkovichh nadokhozhnney to the state budget:

Perevirku correctnosty rozraunku індексної моделі mozhna zbabiti for допомогою multiplikativnogo та адитивного зв'язку, притаманного індексним моделим:

І = І 1 І 2 І 3 І 4 = 1,3099 • 1,197 • 2,0512 • 11,137 = 35,83;

5535621.53 = 1347407.29 + 716096.22 + 1860892.99 + 1611225.03.

Перевірка розрахунків завідчила їх вірність.

Zrostannia in an absolute visa for a payment for a surplus of pidpriemstv at 35 times is ported from the basic period of the beacon zhostanjam:

A) a pervasive obsession with a 30,99% margin;

B) Pitomo-vagi podatkovkikh nadohodzhen at zagalnih nadokhozhnneye on 19,7%;

C) pitomoi vagi of direct submodules in the pituitary blood vessels at 2.05 times;

D) pitomoi vagi, the payment for a pributok in the zagalnyi okzizi direct taxes in 11,128 times.

The model is presented showing the possibility of a factorial increase in the growth of both the void, and the absolute result for ravines of vidnosnyh, and absolute increments. Vona ñ Lisha with the butt of wide opportunities for witching of cause-and-effect problems in economical processes for the minds of the interchange of information for the replenishment of the correlative-regressive analisis.

Methodology of the informal anatomy of the submissive approaches of the field in vyavlennny vpivu increment, the average incremental and shvidkosti ruhu for the whole sukumnnist podatkovkih nadohodzhen.

Nadochodzhennia podatkovkih paymentіv mozhna oyakarizuyvati for all the structural elements of the system of displays, shcho filed below:

• Rіchny prіrіst nadegzhny naremogo mnogo podatkovkikh nadokhodzhen, scho vіznachaєt yak різниця між річними надхоженнями:

De I - suma above the threshold of the submissive deposit t t roku spostrezhennja ta alternatnogo roku;

• In the middle of the sum, payment of fees for species is required, and for the average arithmetic:

.

Viznachennya vplyivu okremih factorov on zminu zagalnoy sumi cutaneous feeding. Before such factors you can:

1) number of payers ( Q ):

2) the sub-base ( B );

3) the cash flow rate ( t ).

The subtotal of three signatures is the sum of the bundle ( T ):

T = Q • B • t .

The sum of the submitted payment is a trifactorial multiplicative index model, and for the skin of the skin factor, the incognitive method of analgesia is viscous.

Зміна суми податку залежить від зміни всіх factorів іїї Calculate for the formula:

.

Zmіnu sumi podatku for rahunok kozhny z factorіv filed lower:

1) зміна суми the payment for rahunok зміни рівня податкової rate:

Abo in absolute viraz yak rіznitsya між cheselnikom i znamennikom indeksu:

;

2) zmіna sumi podatku for rahunok zmіni podatkovoi basi, scho falls on one platnika podatku -

Abo in absolute vise

;

3) зміна суми податку за рахунок зміни чисельності платників податку:

Abo in absolute vise

.

Such a rank, zagalna zmіna sumi, the payment of a dorivnyu:

D T = D t + D B + D Q.

Розглядаючи випадки застсування індексних методик при аналізі податковиких походчиь до бюджету, треба зазначити, що when visaschennі dinamіki izyskikh pokaznikіv nerіdі vіnіkі vіnіkі neobhіdnіst viznachiti і зміну їх середніх characteristics. Not all legal entities of this legal entity should be weighed together with taxable fees for legally reinstating river tax rates. Тобто їх фактичні рівні можуть відрізнятися від юридичних, що насамперед стосється practice наданя державойю податкових пільг. In such vipadkas, vikoristovuyte in the middle of the rate on the payment, zmіni jakoy characterize for the addendum of the indices of the mean values, but for the sake of the inventory of the warehouse, the index of the fictitious warehouse, and the structural zrusen.

In the middle of the day, the rate of the deposit is to be raised, so the index of the warehouse can be recorded in this order:

,

De t 1 i t 0 - riven the tax rate of the venerable plat member, the payment is in progress in the same basic period; In 1 і В 0 - podatkov base for the free payer a payment.

The essence of the economical and mathematical modeling of the fixed rates of taxation is in the field of statistics in the mathematical model, all the information of the state of the payer, the payment and the vizhchalny (all vrachuvati practically non-moderately) factor, and in the sphere of the stagnation of that monetary deposit. Tsey method orientuyutsya head of the rule on regulyuyuyu funktsiyu podatkіv, bo kriteriem optimizatsii podatkovoi bishop vystupa sama nasivshy riven vplyvu podatku na povedinku paysniku. Vodnochas slid obovvjazkovo vrachovuvaty i fіskalne znachennya podatku shlyhom vyddenya in the model obmezhen, nasampered zabezpechennya mіnimalno admissible nadohodzhennya sum vіd zyogo podatku.