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Фінансова статистика - Shustikov A.A.

2.5. Forecasting of major operations

One of the statistics of the state budget is forecasting the yogo yields and visas.

For prognozuvaniya podatkovkih income of the state budget can mozhut bikti vikoristani riznomannіtny method, napriklad ekstrapoljacіya trendіv. Prote tsi method, perebachayuchi zaberezhennya naloloї tendentsії rozvitku, not vrahovyut zmіn beskatkіy bases, and takozh rates filed. Through the whole, you can summon up a pity before predictions. Obnruntovanisheyu - predovodova funktsii zalizhnosti podatkiv vid submitakovoi basis.

Zagadovanie, the whiplash of the automatic effect can be calculated for the sake of the efficiency of the elasticity , for rozraunku yakogo vikoristy spivvidnoshennya tempіv increment podatkovkih income from the growth rate of the gross domestic product. Коефіцієнт еластичності проемонструє, на скільки відсотків збільшиться сума податкакового in the income with the growth of the gross domestic product by 1%.

In the case of prognostication, a sum of money can be collected from the state budget and the yogic deficit. Element of such a forecast can also be the rozmіr of the state internal and external borgu . Forecasting the call of the burg is to be carried out in accordance with the structure of the call, and the payment of the balance to the yogi by the forecast. Intrinsic borg of the power of the warehouse in the settlements on the basis of the repayment of the debt, the forecasting of the settlement of the tax debt will be guilty on the regional trend of the rate and the sums of the loans paid off.

Vazhkoostupnatість інформації може іноді evoke to prognozuvaniya podatkovkikh nadohodzhen shlyt ekstrapoljacіі сучасних tendцій. However, you do not need to accurately analyze the problems, but you can simply get into the secret of the past, uncomfortably with the basics of the basin, or with the tax system. So, for bilshoy predniyostі prognoziv treb zastosovuvati methods, yakі pokazyayut come in submissions to the base. In the future, the prediction of the above is responsible for the maliciously malicious calls that are sent by the takbas, the records of the numbers in the parameters of the claims, and the reason for replacing them with the databases. At such times, the visa is vikoristvuvaty zagalny ekonometricheski model. Practical і інший, so ranks the method of private partіng рівноваги , шо is itself the ability of rozrachovuvati to come up on the basis of function, motivated for різних виівів піттків з використанням прогнозів для різних база оподаткування.

The roster of subordinate functions will require priyonyatya rishen shchodo step desagregovanosti, and takozh viboru in-the-art rozraunkovyh podatkovyh bases. Neophіdno proanalizuvati rіznitsu mіzh priemnymi podatkovymi categories. Treba takozh disagreguvati grupu podatkіv y razi, yakshcho їh base of obodotkuvannya principally vidmіnna.

Збільшення доходів a stretch of the pervy perіodu mozhe vіdobrazhati як автоматичні, и і дисреційні ефекти. Persha is a zobylshennia nadohodzhen to the budget vasledidok zrostannya basis otopototkuvannya. Discretionary actions are affected by the income of the budget, but are explained in terms of tax payments, including the very high rates of taxes that are hired by a tax on the introduction of a new payment. Analis and forecast zmіn podohodzhen to the budget zazvicha mozh zazhvicha require rozmuzhuvannya mіzh zimi dyuma components.

For elemnuvannya discretionary efectu vikoristovuyot method of proportional koriguvannya , sho basoetsya on daniyah about de facto podatkovi nadokhozhennia ( T ) and rozraunkovi rivnyi vplyiv discrete zahodiv ( D ). Method proportsіynogo koriguvannya dozvolyaє rozrahuvati value skorigovanih podatkovih nadhodzhen (AT), yak dorіvnyuє kіlkostі podatkіv, scho boule b zіbranі in poperednіh Rokach, Yakscho b podatkovih system base rock (t) dіyala protyagom usogo tsogo perіodu. The procedure of the koruguvannya may be as follows:

ATt = Tt, (1)

Oskilki, for viznachennyam, before the basic rock does not zastosovyutsya zhodney koriguvannya earnings:

. (2)

Підставляючи (1) to (2):

. (3)

For be-yakogo period t - n рівняння (3) може бути it is written yak:

. (4)

Rozmuzhuvannya automatic and discretely vleplyiv veda before the appearance of two riznyh understand for the description of the reaction of submissions on the sub-category in economics. Еластичність ( Е ) визначається як відношення відсоткових змін фактичних зборів податків in the span of the longest period before відсоткових змін у gross intralin product. Dwellers skontsentruvati uwagi tіlki on automaticity vplivah on income Bulo virobleno alternative ponyattya dinamіchnostі, yak porіvnyuє zrostannya dohodіv s GDP growth vihodyachi s poached, scho podatkovih system deyakomu rotsі (for porіvnyannya zazvichay take ostannіy Year) dіyala protyagom usogo perіodu.

Understand the elasticity and dynamism of these formulas:

,

De E - is a system of elasticity, D - a factor of dynamism.

Elasticity of submissions, in addition, you can viznachiti for dopomogo parametric displays, yakі vidobrazhayut vplyiv diskretsynyh zmіn in the sub-district rivnyanni. Additional:

Ln Tt = a + ( b + c DUMt ) ln GDP t ,

De DUMt = 0 to discrete digits, DUMt = 1 number of discrete digits.

Коефіцієнт b means a payment to the base of elasticity, for a vinyatka vplyv discretionary zmіn at podatkovkikh zborah.

Interpretation of growth is similar to the implementation of the dynamism. Різниця полягає в том, що воо відображає лише автоматичну реакцію з боку доходів. So rank, you can peredbachiti, scho for perіod sposterezhennya, protyagom yakogo dovіlnі zmіni in podatkovіy sistemі sprichinyat zbіlshennya nadhodzhen to budget elastichnіst podatkіv perevischit podatkovih pruzhnіst, scho, in its Cherga, zbіlshit automaticity reaktsіyu dohodіv on tsі zmіni in GDP.

Z uraванuvannam koriguvannya given about actual payments and access to vplyv diskrestsіynih zahodіv the basic stages in the prognostication process of income for the obedotkuvannya buli b:

• Viznachennya funktsionalnyh vzaemovіdnosin mіzh scorigovaniem give and perebachenyy podatkovoy basis;
• Оцінка set parametrs, yakі characterize the time structure of submissions;
• Застосування розрахункових рівнянь для прогнозування доходів, які спираються на дані передбачачувальних значения по подачкових базы.

Yaksho potrybnyh danyah nemye, toodi mozhna zastosuvati proststi shih method, the result of which is to come, at the same time, for the time, for the post-mortem procedure, for the forecasting, for all, for the simplicity of the tendencies. Forecasts of income can be made by posting the portfolios of submissions in sub-categories with external macroeconomic indicators. When tsomu neobhіdno ROBIT peredbachennya stosovno faktorіv, SSMSC mozhut vplivati ​​on pokazniki nadhodzhen to budget at prognozovany perіod, vklyuchayuchi vpliv for Change in rates podatkіv, grafіkah viplat, zvіlnennya od opodatkuvannya, processes styagnennya podatkіv th od uhilennya podatkovih platezhіv.

Nedotatokі nadokhodzhenny to the state budget include the income of the may, mita and zbori, nepromyslovі prodazhi, active balance of private receivables, private donation, fine and confiscation. Acts of components nedotatkivyh nadohodzhen mozut logichno vzaemopov'yana, ale bilshist eelementiv viyavlya істотну непостійність. Vnasledok tsyogo prognostication of incomparable income is necessary on the basis of local microcircuits . Іноді forecast of unpayable nedatkostikovh nadohodzhen zdіysnjut shlyu portivnyostі mnogolіchnih neskatkovyh nadohodzhen to GDP with prognoznuyu value of GDP of the stream rock. However, the more vikoristivuvati otsіonichnі mirkuvannya shodo okremi компонент componentіv і include in rozrayunok mozhny zmіni vіdpovidnikh factorov, nizh robiti mehanichny prognosis of the aggregate display.

Analis rozvitku podatkovoї sistemi pripuskayot, scho otsnika funktsionalnyh vzaemovіdnosin mizh incomes i rozraunkovymi bases with the method of forecasting mozhe bouti pevnoyu tsinnistyu tilki u speni mit na import. Absent Oskіlki Informácie s oblіku that inventory vplivu diskretsіynih regulyuvan іmportnih tarifіv, viznachatimutsya funktsії vzaєmovіdnosin mіzh factuality zіbranimi mitami on іmport (TM) i rozrahunkovoyu podatkovih bazoyu, yak shows zagalnim obmіnom іmportovanih tovarіv (SІF) s kraїn far zarubіzhzhya. Parameters rivnyannya rozrahovyvatsya for dopomogo method naimenshih kvadratіv . For obmezhenoi kіlostі іnstrezhnі оцінки кефіцієнтів рівняння регресії повинні розглядатися досить обережно.

The earlier basic supply, a kind of spoiler was clasped in the international trading transactions, - a vibronic differential transfer from circulation - is not parametric. Він виступає functцією обнагу і warehouse of the hryvnia імпорту і hryvnevyh tsіn імпорт, шо were recognized as dvuhponnіimi trade favors, the rate of exchange of hryvnia to convertible currency inwardly і internal tsіami on production, shоо realizovuvalas.

For vіdsutnostі podatkovih funktsіy that adekvatnoї makroekonomіchnoї information The podatkovі bazi and takozh structural parametrіv novih podatkіv prognozuvannya dohodіv Mauger bazuvatisya to information The dinamіchnіst podatkіv abo spіvvіdnoshennya mіzh income budget i rozrahunkovimi podatkovih bases SSMSC mozhna otrimati s danih about sposterezhennya scho zdіysnyuyutsya s cob podatkovih Reforms. Spivvidnoshennya mizh incomes і rozraunkovymi podatkovkimi bases on the river, which by blowing up the basic period, vypozhyatsya vvazhati pochatkim for forecasting income to the budget.

For prognozuvannya інших податків - місцевих влад на власність, ішших податків на товарита тагов тощо - важко дістати інформацію about вірогідні розруункові basis. This rank, it is possible lishe prognozuviat nadohozhennya vid tsikh podatkiv danii period with zastosuvannyi istorichno viznacheniye koefіtsієntіv їh chastok v GDP.

On the basis of the income of the state, when the prognostication is expected, the viscount is less than the lesser the opportunities for viznachennya їх рівня, якщо спиратися тільки на звичайні економічні співвіdёння. Tse fact є naslidkom polichnichnyi nature of the process priinyattya rishen to the drive of the most powerful species, shcho means: zmіni in the state vedatkah discretion. It is possible, one, rozglyadati endogenne viznachennya active basic categories within the framework of economical classification of species. The payment of visas in the form of visas and rates of the state bargaining in the state, at that time the transfer may be made in the form of a savings bank. On the basis of the payment of the loans and services, you are to learn how to invest in the spheres of income, so that the budget will be put into the market, I will become the budget, I will vkazuyut on ochikuvannya vladi in the basic categories of goods. Analyz minislikh vіdnosin mіzh pripuschennjam і real results can mozhe zasvidchiti rozmіir pomilok podbnih otsіnok.

Zarobіtna charge of state-sponsored aparatі that INSHI potochnі vitrati pіddayutsya in ekonomіtsі perehіdnogo perіodu vplivu s side organіzatsіynih reforms spryamovanih on zamіnu Reigning іnstitutіv, scho boule zaluchenі to bezposerednogo control over ekonomіkoyu, Reigning admіnіstratsієyu vzhivayut i novih zahodіv schodo pіdtrimki efektivnosti funktsіonuvannya rinkovoї Economy. For the presence of numerical pershkochergovy zavdan, yakis did not vyrishuvalis a detachment in the minds of centralized planning, it is important to note the zagalny vplyiv chich reforms on the current state power. Номінальні поточні витрати мають зростати in result of reforms, зміни податків, цін, заробітної плати. At zіstavlennі prognoziv u tsіy galuzi neobhіdno brothers up to respect vplyiv increase poblitnoi pay vnaslidok otrimannya dodatkovogo pributku with introduced taxes on the income and control of the block board, and takozh vpliv zrostanya tsin.

Forecasting the financial balance of the budget to concentrate on the three main elements: call money; Vnutrishnnomu nebankivskomu zapozichchennі; Internal zapozitschennyi from the banking system. Zdіysnemichi prediction in the sphere of zovnіshnogo fіnansuvannya, neobhіdno звіряти plan залучення іноземних posk і граіки погашення боргів Мінстваства фінансів з forecasts of іnozemnih creditors і граіками погашення боргів крединиміції. Yakshchoo the problem of the field in the regional structures of the northern borgo, then to the structure of the forecast, it is necessary to include a wide range of parameters, attach special respect to the management of the call borgo. Budgetary forecasting in the budget of the financial crisis is guilty of bankruptcy in the balance of payments.
For domestic pozabankivskih pose neobhidno robiti forecast zagalnoy kіlostі borovovy іnstrumentіv, yakі power zdatnosti rozmistiti besideinishnyh fіnansovyh institutions i інших оргаізаціях, які надають позичкові кошти. At zv'yazku zim neobhidno rozgljanuti mozhnivist vplyu podibnih dіy na vartіst і accessibility fondіv for fіnansuvannya nerastavnії діяльності.