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Fіnansova statistics - Shustіkov AA

5.5. Prognozuvannya groshovoї masi

Quantity pennies, SSMSC perebuvayut in obіgu, vplivaє on Key infrastructure produktsії, rіven tsіn, zaynyatіst that INSHI yavischa, to vazhlivim zavdannyam statistics Je forecast groshovoї masi.

Prognoznі rozrahunki groshovoї masi mozhna vikonuvati EYAD ways:

1) prognozuvannya popitu on groshі;

2) prognozuvannya Offers pennies.

Zіstavlennya prognozіv popitu on groshі i Offers pennies dozvolyaє dіyti visnovkіv about rіvnovagu trumpery obіgu, stalіst yogo rozvitku.

Pochatkova moment when prognozuvannі Offers pennies Je viznachennya groshovoї bazi. Penny base vklyuchaє gotіvku nebankіvskogo sector Economy, gotіvku bankіvskih SET, deposits komertsіynih bankіv, the private sector i Reigning structures. Vaughn vimіryuєtsya yak prirіst aktivіv bankіvskoї system: sovereign Borg penny and credit to establish zobov'yazan komertsіynih bankіv the central bank, zakordonnih clean aktivіv (result platіzhnogo balance), and the increase in non-reserve takozh zobov'yazan central bank (i kapіtal Prybutok tsogo bank zakordonnі that INSHI zobov'yazannya).

Dinamіka penny agregatіv ob'єdnanoї bankіvskoї Sistemi Mauger Buti pov'yazana s dinamіkoyu groshovoї bazi central bank so rіvnyannyam:

M = kR = K (NFA + NDCG + DCB + OIN),

de M - Penny unit, NFA - chistі zovnіshnі assets; NDCG - chistі zobov'yazannya Uryadov; DCB - chistі zobov'yazannya komertsіynih bankіv; OIN - INSHI stattі (net).

When prognozuvannі popitu on groshі Square parameter Yea i obov'yazkovі zmіnnі factor "mozhlivih vitrat". Mozhlivі factorization toil urahovuvati spіvvіdnoshennya kіlkostі pennies s obsyagom operatsіy, SSMSC potrіbno profіnansuvati. Pid mozhlivim factor zvichayno rozumіyut vnutrіshnіy gross product. Factor "mozhlivih vitrat" virazhaє stupіn perevagi gotіvki porіvnyano іnshimi s assets. Deyakі ekonomіsti proponuyut for "mozhlivih vitrat" vikoristovuvati rates for korotkostrokovimi tsіnnimi Paper the (oschadnі that pozichkovі deposits vekselі). On Dumka іnshih fahіvtsіv, popit on groshі (realnі kasovі zalishki) deposits od rіvnya dohodіv on oblіgatsії that aktsії. W look around to stink tse rekomenduyut at prognozuvannі popitu on groshі for factor "we can livih vitrat" vikoristovuvati vіdsotkovі dovgostrokovі rates on assets.

Popit on groshі deposits takozh od rіvnya іnflyatsії, if realnіshe vіdobrazhaєtsya zmіna tsіn i popitu on groshі.

For tsіley analіzu that prognozuvannya neobhіdno chіtko rozmezhuvati groshovі aggregates in real (postіynih tsіnah) i nomіnalnomu virazah (Flow tsіnah).

Groshі utrimuyutsya dobrovіlno for fіnansuvannya flow operatsіy i yak zaoschadny asset. Suma pennies, scho population dobrovіlno utrimuє, viznachatimetsya in real virazі, tobto in viglyadі kupіvelnoї spromozhnostі pennies stosovno spozhivchogo Kaushik tovarіv i poslug. Napriklad, Yakscho OAO All tsіni zbіlshatsya in 2 Razi i potіm zalishatsya on new rіvnі, population musit mother in serednomu rіvno in 2 Razi bіlshe pennies nіzh ranіshe, dwellers of the zdіysnyuvati samy obsyag real operatsіy. However Hoca popit on groshі i musit in such razі rozglyadatisya in real virazі, fіnansovі organic mozhut vplivati ​​tіlki on nomіnalnu Quantity groshovoї masi.

Meaning zmіni nomіnalnoї kіlkostі groshovoї masi deposits od of Yakima rank zmіnyuyutsya faktichnі groshovі zalishki scho viznachayutsya in real virazі, stink chi spіvvіdnosyatsya popitom s population on tsі realnі groshovі zalishki. Yakscho fіnansovі organic nadayut bіlshe (less then) pennies, nіzh mother bazhaє population, the population znizhuє (zbіlshuє) tsіnnіst tsієї groshovoї masi.

Jak sama population Mauger vplivati ​​on realnі groshovі zalishki? Іsnuє two main mehanіzmi:

1. Population Mauger kupuvati (abo prodavatsya) іnozemnu currency obmіn on natsіonalnu. In Tsikh rezultatі operatsіy Quantity natsіonalnoї currency in net virazі znizhuvatimetsya (zbіlshuvatimetsya), so self yak i obsyagi zovnіshnіh aktivіv scho znahodyatsya in volodіnnі fіnansovih organіv.

2. population Mauger kupuvati (prodavatsya) natsіonalnі goods in obmіn on natsіonalnu currency. Yakscho vvazhaє population, scho in yogo volodіnnі duzhe bagato pennies porіvnyano s real commodity masoyu, spozhivannya zbіlshuєtsya. Podіbne pіdvischennya popitu for goods sprichinit zbіlshennya vnutrіshnіh tsіn. Population factuality zmenshit obsyag real penny zalishkіv Shlyakhov іnflyatsії, Hoca nomіnalny obsyag groshovoї masi zalishitsya nezmіnnim.

Tsі mehanіzmi mozhut pratsyuvati odnochasno. Yakscho fіnansovі organic nadayut duzhe bagato (small) pennies on tsіni vnutrіshnі Flea mozhut zbіlshuvatisya (zmenshuvatisya) and platіzhny balance - pogіrshuvatisya (polіpshuvatisya). Vpliv on platіzhny balance bude nastіlki іstotnіshim, naskіlki vіdkritіshim Yea i rinok tovarіv kapіtalіv i Mensch gnuchkoyu system obmіnnih kursіv. Napriklad in ekonomіtsі s fіksovanim obmіnnim course, de vіdsutnє Monetary regulyuvannya i regulyuvannya torgіvleyu, Vlad bude no control over nomіnalnim obsyagom groshovoї masi. Whether yak nezbalansovanіst mіzh popitom i propozitsієyu pennies prizvede to zbіlshennya abo skorochennya rozmіrіv groshovoї masi through platіzhny balance scho Neznachny Items marked on tsіnah. On tsomu protivagu in ekonomіtsі s absolutely vіlnim obmіnnim course i vіdsutnіstyu regulyuvannya obmіnny course vrіvnovazhuvatime popit i propozitsіyu іnozemnoї currency such rank, dwellers zovnіshnі chistі assets zalishalisya nezmіnnimi. In this razі zbіlshennya rozmіrіv groshovoї masi given to dovgostrokovogo zbіlshennya nomіnalnogo rіvnya penny agregatіv scho suprovodzhuvatimetsya pіdvischennyam tsіn, vklyuchayuchi tsіnu іnozemnoї currency, tobto obmіnnogo rate.

Pіdvischennya rіvnya vitrat vnaslіdok zbіlshennya rozmіrіv groshovoї masi Mauger lead to real zrostannya obsyagu virobnitstva, Especially in quiet vipadkah, if Je nedovikoristanі potuzhnostі. The I navpaki, znizhennya rіvnya vitrat Mauger lead to real znizhennya obsyagu virobnitstva. So, the real zrostannya obsyagu virobnitstva Veda to zbіlshennya number operatsіy, SSMSC neobhіdno fіnansuvati scho sprichinit zbіlshennya popitu on groshі. So rank, zmіna obsyagu virobnitstva Mauger Buti dodatkovim factor vіdnovlennya rіvnovagi in ekonomіtsі. Yak usually іsnuє direct phone reception mіzh zrostannyam penny agregatіv i nomіnalnim obsyagom virobnitstva. However іsnuyut rіznі points to Zora sutnіst tsogo i zv'yazku those Yakimov rank rozpodіlyaєtsya vpliv zmіni nomіnalnogo obsyagu groshovoї masi mіzh tsіnami that real obsyagom virobnitstva.

Metodi prognozuvannya

Oskіlki domogospodarstva i pіdpriєmstva viznachayut real tsіnnіst penny agregatіv, prognozuvannya Tsikh agregatіv potrebuє vrahuvannya povedіnki Tsikh ekonomіchnih agentіv. Yak usually rozglyadayutsya two basic methods. A s they bazuєtsya on vikoristannі regresії techniques for otsіnki funktsії popitu on groshі. Inshyj pіdhіd ґruntuєtsya on tendentsії shvidkostі obіgu pennies. Vibіr method deposits od nayavnostі randomness danih stabіlnostі i have chasі іnstitutsіonalnih structures and takozh od povedіnki agentіv scho viznachayut real tsіnnіst agregatіv penny.

Rozglyanemo kozhnіy s Tsikh metodіv okremo. Purshia bazuєtsya on pobudovі rіvnyannya popitu on groshі i peredbachaє scho fіnansova povedіnka ekonomіchnih agentіv Mauger Buti filed in viglyadі funktsії are small numbers ekonomіchnih zmіnnih. Method peredbachaє takozh scho vzaєmozv'yazok mіzh penny aggregates SSMSC perebuvayut in dobrovіlnomu volodіnnі, that factors popitu on groshі zmіnyuєtsya not have chasі. Іsnuyut rіznі factors SSMSC mozhut zrobiti Tsey vzaєmozv'yazok nestabіlnim, obmezhuyuchi korisnіst such pіdhodu.

Poshirenіshoyu Je funktsіya popitu on groshі, scho yak vklyuchaє Find our factorial, pov'yazanu s ekonomіchnimi operatsіyami. Naychastіshe for tsogo vikoristovuyut vnutrіshnіy gross product. Takozh yak mozhna zastosovuvati factorial Find our i value scho demonstruє vіdnosnu privablivіst zberіgannya pennies porіvnyano s іnshimi fіnansovimi asset i neruhomіstyu.

Vibіr zmіnnoї vіdnosnoї vartostі deposits od viznachennya trumpery unit that іnstitutsіonalnoї structure. Deyakі zagalnі nomіnalnі vіdsotkovі rate shaping can Buti pokaznikami vіdnosnoї vartostі zberіgannya penny aktivіv, SSMSC not give vіdsotkovogo income. For penny aktivіv, SSMSC give Taqiy dohіd, one can take Yak Taku zmіnnu scho vimіryuє rіznitsyu vіdsotkovih rates mіzh penny that іnshimi fіnansovimi zobov'yazannyami. In kraїnah de fіnansovі zobov'yazannya bankіvskoї system before a private sector yavlyayutsya him naybіlshu chastku zagalnih fі- aktivіv-financial private sector, real vіdsotkova rate іnodі vikoristovuєtsya zamіst income od fіnansovih aktivіv porіvnyano s income od neruhomostі (ochіkuvany efekt vіdsotkovih real rates on popit on groshovі Je dodatnim aggregates). Yakscho vіdsotkovі rates zalishayutsya nezmіnnimi protyagom dovgostrokovogo perіodu, Tsey efekt Mauger Buti viznacheno Shlyakhov rozglyadu tіlki tempіv іnflyatsії (ochіkuvany efekt іnflyatsії on realnі groshovі zalishku Je vіd'єmnim).

For otsіnki popitu on groshovі aggregates vikoristovuyut logarifmіchne rіvnyannya in such viglyadі:

.

de M - Penny unit. Tse Mauger Buti M 1 M 2 abo; p - rіven tsіn (іndeks іnflyatsії); Y - nomіnalny vnutrіshnіy gross product; p - pokaznik vіdnosnoї vartostі zberіgannya pennies.

When tsomu koefіtsієnt regresії b guilty Buti bіlshim abo dorіvnyuvati zero and koefіtsієnt regresії with Mauger mother whether yak values.

In razі pobudovі rіvnyan regresії popitu on groshovі aggregates vazhlivim poached Yea those scho real popit on groshovі zalishki dorіvnyuє realnіy Offers agregatіv penny. Ale Yakscho sposterіgaєtsya imbalance mіzh popitom i propozitsієyu pennies koriguvannya not Mauger Buti mittєvim. Poyasnyuєtsya Tse note scho toil Location takі factors vitrati yak i skladnostі mittєvogo vitrachannya nadlishkovih pennies abo hour for usvіdomlennya of scho gangway zbіlshennya rozmіrіv groshovoї masi i scho obsyag penny zalishkіv perevischiv Bazhanov rіven. For dosyagnennya rіvnovagi on penny market analysis mozhlivo vikoristovuvati model chastkovogo koriguvannya, peredbachaє yak, scho Tsei processes protyagom Pevnyi perіodu dorіvnyuє pevnіy chastinі X od pevnoї bazhanoї magnitude od bazhanoї zmіni. Zvіdsi - rіvnyannya popitu that Offers in the penny market analysis mozhna taxes in such viglyadі

.

de .

Vreshtі-Rasht otrimuєmo residual rіvnyannya popitu that bids:

.

Stabіlnіst funktsії popitu on groshі deposits od nezmіnnoї іnstitutsіonalnoї structure. Strukturnі reforms leading to zmіni zagalnoї povedіnki ekonomіchnih agentіv scho uskladnyuє otsіnku vzaєmozalezhnostey, vklyuchayuchi i funktsіyu popitu on groshі. Polіpshennya funktsіonuvannya fіnansovih rinkіv Mauger zmenshiti popit on groshі, oskіlki z'yavlyatimutsya novі, privablivіshі fіnansovі assets. Tsey efekt Mauger Buti chastkovo kompensovany, Yakscho fіnansova reform Zroby zaoschadzhennya in formі fіnansovih aktivіv, vklyuchayuchi groshі, privablivіshimi. Stupіn reaguvannya popitu on groshі on zmіnu vіdsotkovih rates takozh Mauger uniquely aktivіzuvatisya, the fact scho rates to lіberalіzatsії vіdsotkovі not zmіnyuvalis nastіlki often Bulo dwellers mozhna viznachiti їh vpliv on vibіr rіznih fіnansovih aktivіv.

Nezadovіlnі result regresії Buti shaping can takozh pov'yazanі s problems randomness danih, schodo yakih mozhlivy vpliv pohibki and takozh zmіni vіdpovіdnih viznachen i metodіv Zborov Informácie. Krіm of danih cooperate for shaping can not Buti dostatno trivalі, oskіlki neobhіdna Quantity values ​​zrostaє іz zrostannyam zmіnnih Square. W metoyu uniknuti structural Change log i in the same hour zabezpechiti neobhіdnu trivalіst hours danih, neobhіdno obmezhuvati perіod otsіnki vіdnosno short іntervalami, vikoristovuyuchi schomіsyachnі that schokvartalnі danі.

Nezadovіlnі result rіvnyannya regresії shaping can Buti poyasnenі takozh th іsnuvannyam nadlishku lіkvіdnostі, Cauterets Mauger Buti yak viznacheny chastka Sumi penny zalishkіv scho perevischuє Bazhanov rіven. Yakscho protyagom Pevnyi promіzhku hour otsіnki іsnuє nadlishkova lіkvіdnіst, rіvnyannya regresії guilty vіdpovіdati points krivoї popitu yak, so i krivoї Offers scho obmezhuє korisnіst otrimanih rezultatіv.

Osnovnі the category that ponyattya

Statistics trumpery obіgu

Bezgotіvkovy penny turnover

Gotіvkovy penny turnover

Obsyag trumpery obіgu

Serednі zalishki pennies

Mercantile platіzhny turnover

Monetized platіzhny turnover

Forecast kasovih oborotіv

Denominations warehouse groshovoї masi

penny base

Groshovі aggregates

penny masa

Quantity oborotіv pennies

Hour turnover groshovoї masi

Shvidkіst obіgu gotіvki

Prognozuvannya groshovoї masi

Zapitannya i zavdannya for self-control

1. Rozkriyte sotsіalne ekonomіchne-values ​​statistics obіgu trumpery.

2. Chime gotіvkovy penny turnover vіdrіznyaєtsya od bezgotіvkovogo trumpery turnover?

3. Navedіt osnovnі pokazniki statistics obіgu trumpery.

4. Chim warehouse platіzhnogo commodity circulation od vіdrіznyaєtsya subsistence platіzhnogo turnover?

5. Yak statistics viznachaє dinamіku denominations warehouse pennies?

6. For Relief yakih pokaznikіv vivchaєtsya shvidkіst obіgu groshovoї Masi?

7. Yakima rank mozhna zrobiti forecast groshovoї Masi?

8. Shcho vie rozumієte pid penny units?

9. Yakima rank rozrahovuєtsya multiplіkator penny?

10. Maєmo danі about Quantity vipuschenih i s obіgu viluchenih banknotes, yew. PC.:

Viznachiti:

1) zmіnu groshovoї masi vnaslіdok emіsії pennies;

2) the value of banknotes serednoї scho vipuschena in obіg that viluchena s obіgu;

3) masu pennies vipuschenu in obіg that viluchenu s obіgu.

Sklasti visnovki.

11. Maєmo takі danі about penny that penny masu base of the mill on kіnets rock, billion USD .:

Viznachiti:

1) pokazniki dinamіki groshovoї bazi that groshovoї masi for 1995-2000 pp .;

2) Penny multiplіkator on Rokach is the yogo pokazniki dinamіki;

3) serednorіchny pace zrostannya groshovoї Bazi i groshovoї masi for 1995-2000 pp.

Sklasti visnovki.

12. Maєmo umovnі danі about gross product vnutrіshnіy penny i masu, billion USD .:

Viznachiti pokazniki obіgovoї groshovoї masi. Zrobiti visnovki.

13. Maєmo takі danі about Quantity for pennies in obіgu II pіvrіchchya, billion USD .:

Viznachiti:

1) prirіst pennies in obіgu in grudnі porіvnyano s Lipno stream rock;

2) serednomіsyachnu nayavnіst pennies in obіgu for the third quarter that i ІU for pіvrіchchya II.

14. Obchisliti Quantity oborotіv nayavnih pennies i serednіy lines їh obіgu, vihodyachi s umovnih danih on mіstu:

15. Viznachiti rozmіr groshovoї emіsії, yak vinikla vnaslіdok znischennya shvidkostі obіgu nayavnih pennies. Protyagom zvіtnogo perіodu in Cassis Natsіonalnogo bank in the district nadіyshlo 10 million UAH, serednorіchna penny masa in obіgu becomes 2 million USD, Quantity oborotіv groshovoї masi in the baseline perіodі -.. 12.

16. Rozrahuvati, yak scrip zmіnilas nayavnih pennies obsession od the population for purchase tovarіv i poslug, Yakscho serednya penny masa in obіgu zrosla 12% and shvidkіst znizilas turnover of 12 to 10.

17. Maєmo takі danі for the Year, billion USD .:

Viznachiti:

1) obіgovіst groshovoї masi i gotіvki blocks for i in tsіlomu over Year;

2) trivalіst turnover groshovoї masi i gotіvki (in days) for the blocks i in tsіlomu of Year;

3) Growth rates groshovoї masi i gotіvki;

4) breaking bar pitomu gotіvki in zagalnomu obsyazі groshovoї masi.

Sklasti visnovki.

18. Maєmo umovnі danі on oblastі:

Viznachiti:

1) shvidkіst obіgu groshovoї masi (M 2);

2) shvidkіst obіgu gotіvki;

3) Absolute zmіnu shvidkostі obіgu groshovoї masi (M 2) for rakhunok zmіni shvidkostі obіgu gotіvki that chastki gotіvki in zagalnomu obsyazі groshovoї masi (M 2).