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History of the world economy - Polyak GB

30.5. The countries of the socialist system in the second half of the 80's and 90's

general characteristics

Already in the 1960s it became obvious that the existing social and economic system and its economic mechanisms can not create an effective socially-oriented economy that actively uses the achievements of scientific and technological progress and interacts with the world economy. The decline in the growth rates of the economy, the backlog of knowledge-intensive industries, the distortions in the financial sector, the growth of external debt, and the relatively low living standards of the population were characteristic of the Eastern European countries. Measures to intensify production, undertaken in the 70's and 80's, were not crowned with success. The continuing deep economic crisis, the instability of the emerging political systems, the aggravation of national contradictions confirmed that deep changes in the social and economic sphere are necessary.

In 1990, as a whole, the course towards Western democracy, market relations through privatization of the public sector and the encouragement of private entrepreneurship was determined. In all countries, this course was accompanied by an increase in crisis phenomena. The depth of the economic downturn in the countries of the Eastern European region was expressed in the reduction of the gross national product (GNP) in 1990-1992: in Bulgaria almost by half, in Romania by 1/3, Hungary and Czechoslovakia by 1/4, Poland by 1 /5. In the second half of 1992 and in 1993. There have been changes in the dynamics of the economic recession. Its pace slowed down, signs of stabilization and the transition of the crisis from the general to the structural crisis began to appear. Slowdown of investment and consumer demand, living standards slowed down. But the market transformation led to an increase in unemployment (more than 5.5 million people by the end of 1992), aggravation of poverty, property stratification, rising crime and other negative phenomena. To date, various options have been clearly defined for the formation of a market economy, which contain both common and specific features and principles conditioned by the different historical and national conditions of these countries.

Hungary

In the Eastern European region, Hungary was the first to take the path of reforms, which began the reforms in 1968, although decisions on economic reform were made back in 1966. Then it was argued that the main feature of the economic mechanism should be the organic connection of centralized planned management with the active role of commodity Relations and the market on the basis of socialist ownership of the means of production. However, attempts to combine these largely contradictory principles did not lead to the desired results. Therefore, in the 1980s, along with the creation of the consumer goods market, a course was taken to form the market for factors of production, securities, and foreign exchange. The share of private capital has increased. In 1987, this sector produced 7% of the national income (excluding private agricultural production). In industry, private farms and firms were allowed with hiring up to 500 people. Various forms of small enterprises developed, and the economic and labor communities ( KhTS ) - voluntary associations of individuals with the purpose of joint activity in servicing, small-scale production and other spheres became widespread. KhTS consisted exclusively of workers and pensioners of this enterprise and functioned outside of working hours. The enterprise and the CTC freely agreed on payment for the use of the premises and equipment, the price of raw materials and materials, and the payment for services outside the hour. By 1983, more than 3,500 CTCs were formed in Hungary.

In Hungary, the way of direct sale of shares of state enterprises to the population was elected. However, the repurchase of shares was very slow and did not justify the hopes for the rapid formation of an important source of replenishment of the state budget. Banks, state institutions and enterprises were allowed to issue bonds and shares, a certain proportion of which could be purchased by the population. Thus, the share capital and the securities market were formed.

In the agriculture of Hungary in those years there were conflicting trends. The share of state enterprises remained fairly stable. But during this time, the country experienced two major waves of "collectivization", i.e. Compulsory education of agricultural cooperatives: in the early 50's and in 1959-1961. The last collectivization transferred more than two-thirds of arable land to co-operatives from private ownership. Members of cooperatives were allowed to have only a small piece of land and some livestock. In subsequent years, there was a gradual expansion of production in the private sector. The cooperative economy also increased, while the share of state enterprises was reduced.

Despite the fact that the reform in Hungary began earlier and proceeded relatively radically, by the end of the 1980s, Significant impact on society, she did not.

In the early 80-ies in Hungary, there was a price liberalization, which determined the long-term growth of prices at all levels. Under these conditions, the government was forced to tighten its financial policy and by the end of 1991 had achieved some reduction in the level of inflation and the rate of price growth. Anti-inflationary policy has yielded tangible results: a significant influx of foreign capital, progressive market transformation, effective measures against unpromising enterprises.

In 1991, a law on bankruptcies was passed establishing the procedure for the liquidation of insolvent enterprises: the court determines the terms, order, priority of debt repayment and decides on privatization. However, if the enterprise can not satisfy the claims of the creditor within three months, the production ceases. The introduction of the bankruptcy law increased the responsibility of economic managers in financial matters.

In 1992-1993, according to experts, the turnaround to the market was passed. The banking and tax systems were close to the norms in force in Western European countries, in fact, the internal convertibility of the forint has been achieved. At that time, it was possible to halt the growth of gross debt, somewhat to reduce net debt. There was an increase in the inflow of foreign capital (by the end of 1993 it was $ 4 billion, or half of all Western investments in Eastern Europe and the CIS). The share of the non-state sector (private, cooperative, foreign) has appreciably increased, which exceeded the state budget. The private sector accounted for 1/3 of the GNP and about 20% of the employed.

In general, the creation of the legislative foundations of a market economy, its infrastructure (banks, exchanges, investment funds, etc.) has been completed. The country began to reorganize unprofitable enterprises. In 1992, cases were filed for bankruptcy against 2,300 organizations.

At the same time, a serious decline is observed in agriculture, where the liquidation of agricultural cooperatives has occurred. In 1992, the volume of production of agricultural products decreased by about 1/4. The volume of investments continued to decrease along with a simultaneous increase in the budget deficit. Unemployment grew, which was 12% of the able-bodied population.

Thus, by 1994, the country had largely passed the stage of recession, but the final turn to recovery in the economy had not yet come.

Poland

In much the same situation has developed in Poland. Economic reform began here in 1982 with the adoption of a large number of laws after the introduction in December 1981 of the martial law, which was supposed to stabilize the economy. However, the increase in imbalances and inflation, manifested during the reforms, led to the change of government and the victory of the social and political movement Solidarity. The government of T. Mazovetskiy began to accelerate the transition to market relations, close to existing in the highly developed countries of the West.

In the transformation of the socialist society, Poland turned to "shock therapy". In early 1990, prices for 90% of products and services were released here. However, social tension forced the government to increase the number of controlled prices for food products and products of the 24 largest monopoly enterprises, and sharply reduce compensation costs. Inflation remained high at 250%, which forced the government to pursue a tough monetary and financial policy. As a result, there was a tendency to reduce inflation.

At the same time, the negative consequences also increased. First of all, the decline in production in the industry, the difficulties with the sale of agricultural products, rising unemployment (more than 1 million people), a decrease in real incomes of the population. The resistance to privatization (up to the occupation of buildings) grew, more often in the trading system, where, in the guise of combating the nomenclature and monopoly, shops were sold to private individuals from outside, and not to the workers themselves. On the ground, compulsory privatization began to manifest itself. All this increased the discontent of people who refused in November 1990 to trust the government of T. Mazovetskiy.

The situation in the country was aggravated by a huge external debt. Having received in 1971-1987. 47 billion dollars of loans, Poland paid $ 50 billion on their repayments and interest payments, and in 1989 there was still about $ 39 billion left. Internal resources, even for interest payments, were no longer sufficient. In search of an exit, the authorities were forced to make new loans. Therefore, in 1990, the interest rate for the loan was raised to 70-80%. The new system of taxation obliged enterprises to deduct to the budget up to 80% of the earned funds. Some previous taxes were preserved and acted. So, the tax on fixed assets prevented the renovation of equipment. Meanwhile, the need to combat inflation and strengthen the budget required the deductions of a large part of the enterprises' incomes to the budget, which, thanks to their monopoly position and the market deficit, could make huge profits. However, in 1991 more than 20% of state enterprises were insolvent, the debt reached 33.3 trillion. Zł. The government allowed the use of bill circulation and the issuance of bank loans to businesses on bail (technical means, transport, etc.).

In 1991, the Polish government began to implement a policy of privatization. In the conditions of shock therapy in Poland in a short time several forms of privatization were tested: sale of enterprises, distribution of state property through coupons and through shares. However, privatization, which was not of a mass character, could not bring any noticeable positive results. In addition, the economic activity of enterprises, the volume of production, the number of production and support personnel of enterprises have not changed. And in the end, in 1991, the average profitability of privatized enterprises decreased from 20-40% to 8%.

In 1992, new trends were emerging. The general recession began to shift to structural decline. With the decline in production in the extractive industry and metallurgy, it has grown in wood processing, electrical engineering, and the chemical industry. In the first half of 1993, production in industry and agriculture increased by 8%. The growth of GDP (according to estimates) was 4-5% in 1993. The stabilization program helped to reduce inflation to 35.3% in 1993. The share of private capital in aggregate GDP increased in 1989-93 from 28 to 50%. Structural restructuring and a decline in production in a number of industries led to an increase in unemployment.

Czechoslovakia

The situation in Czechoslovakia (since June 1990, the Czechoslovak Federative Republic (CSFR, and since January 1, 1993, two states - the Czech Republic and Slovakia) was relatively stable until 1990. Here, national income increased (for example, in 1988 The government carried out a number of measures relating to the settlement of capital construction, the reduction of inventories, the development of wage funds, and the improvement of the balance between foreign and domestic trade.

In 1988, some steps were taken to reform the economic mechanism, in particular, aimed at increasing the independence of industrial facilities and their responsibility for effective development. The reorganization of the central bodies began, which led to a reduction in their apparatus by 20%.

However, the desired results have not been achieved.

In November 1989, a new government came to power in Czechoslovakia (the events were called "velvet", or "tender" revolution), which radicalized the policy of a free market and pluralism of forms of ownership. Already in September 1990 the number of registered private enterprises reached 339 thousand. On November 1 of the same year, the law "On Mitigating the Consequences of Certain Property Injustices" came into force, implying the return of property to former owners or their heirs, which was nationalized after 1948. Undoubtedly, this act accelerated the process of denationalization.

In the CSFM, ownership was distributed through coupons, which was explained by the presence of large enterprises, which are very difficult to sell. In 1992, 8.6 million people received coupons, of which 1 million people in the same year exchanged these coupons for shares of enterprises. In addition, "small privatization" began - the sale of shops, consumer services, workshops. This was accompanied by an increase in the imbalance of the national economy and an increase in unemployment (by November 1990, the number of unemployed was 44,000, or 0.6% of the total number of able-bodied people). To mitigate the possible resurgence of discontent, in December 1990 the Federal Assembly passed an employment law whereby an unemployed person has the right to benefit for one year: the first six months - 60% of his earnings, then 50%. Among the most important problems of the Czechoslovak economy, the government allocated almost complete dependence on the import of energy and raw materials from the USSR.

In Czechoslovakia, at the initial stage of reforms, 70% of state enterprises were insolvent, their arrears amounted to approximately 80 billion kroons. Carrying out a purposeful monetary and financial policy, the government practiced lending only to profitable enterprises. The state also provided assistance to enterprises that produce military products. For these purposes, 1.2 billion kronor was allocated, since the share of military production in the GNP was high, the state's assistance to the transfer of defense enterprises to the production of peaceful significance was extremely important.

The interest rate for the loan in 1991 remained low (25%), and bank loans could still be received only by prospective enterprises with a stable economic situation. Liberation of prices in the CSFM was carried out in January 1991. In general, in 1991 prices increased by only 59%, which was explained by the comparative stability of the Czechoslovak economy.

The variant of the reform carried out in the CSFM was balanced and consistent, which was facilitated by a high initial level of economic development of the country, the saturation of the domestic market. In 1992, there was a minimum level of inflation. Almost no reduction in real wages. The decline in investment and agricultural production was less, with a relatively small external debt (10 billion dollars by the end of 1992). After the collapse of the Federation since 1993, crisis phenomena have intensified. Only in the first quarter of 1993, industrial production in the Czech Republic fell by 8%, export fell by one third. The Slovak economy had worse starting opportunities. In 1993, the decline in GNP (estimated) was at least 5%. The traditional peg to the eastern market complicated the situation. The program was developed with the identification of five priority areas: energy, low-tonnage chemistry, woodworking, ecology, tourism.