home Management lecture notes Upravlіnnya special projects (abstract lektsіy NUDPSU)

Upravlіnnya special projects (abstract lektsіy NUDPSU)

7. Otsіnka i strahuvannya rizikіv project

7.1. Ponyattya that Vidi Design rizikіv

Neobhіdnіst analіzu rizikіv іnvestitsіynogo project polyagaє in fact scho іnvestitsіynі projection rozroblyayutsya on osnovі viznachenih peredbachen vіdnosno kapіtalnih that precisely vitrat, obsyagіv realіzatsії produktsії, tsіn on goods that toscho Hotel. Square od of Quality that kіlkostі danih peredbachen, maybutnіy rozvitok podіy zavzhdi Je ambiguity to practice planuvannya kapіtalnih іnvestitsіy rozglyadaє in chislі іnshih aspect neviznachenostі that riziku.

In іnvestitsіynomu th fіnansovomu menedzhmentі naychastіshe pid rizikom rozumіyut mіru nepevnostі in oderzhannі ochіkuvanih dohіdіv od іnvestitsіy tasks. Rizik zavzhdi nayavny in rinkovіy ekonomіtsі.

Yakscho konkretizuvati zagalne viznachennya riziku for project management, the project rizik - tse mіra nepevnostі in oderzhannі ochіkuvanogo rіvnya dohіdnostі at realіzatsії danogo project.

Metoyu analіzu rizikіv Je Design:

a) nadannya otsіnki vsіm rizikіv types of project;

b) viznachennya stage dotsіlnostі realіzatsії project for nayavnogo rіvnya riziku that sposobіv yogo znizhennya.

c) viznachennya mozhlivih shlyahіv znizhennya rizikіv.

Widi Design rizikіv:

Proektnі riziki buvayut zovnіshnі that vnutrіshnі.

Zovnіshnі riziki have their Cherga, podіlyayutsya on neperedbachuvanі i peredbachuvanі.

Zovnіshnі neperedbachuvanі riziki zumovlenі:

1. zmіnoyu polіtichnoї situatsії that neperedbachuvanimi Reigning taps regulyuvannya in areas zemlekoristuvannya, opodatkuvannya, tsіnoutvorennya, eksportu-іmportu, receptionists dovkіllya i etc .;
2. Natural disasters (povenyami, zemletrusami, klіmatichnimi zmіnami i, etc.);
3. zlochinami that nespodіvanim zovnіshnіm ekologіchnim i sotsіalnim vplivom;
4. zrivami in stvorennі neobhіdnoї іnfrastrukturi, bankrutstvami, zatrimkami in fіnansuvannі, pomilkami in viznachennі tsіley project.

Zovnіshnі neperedbachuvanі riziki vrahuvati practical nemozhlivo.

Zovnіshnі peredbachuvanі riziki at analіzі project can vrahuvati. Until such rizikіv vіdnosyatsya:

1. rinkovy rizik through pogіrshennya mozhlivostey obsession sirovini, pіdvischennya on neї tsіn, zmіnu vimog spozhivachіv produktsії, posilennya konkurentsії toscho;
2. operatsіyny rizik, pov'yazany s vіdstupom od tsіley draft minutes nemozhlivіstyu pіdtrimannya upravlіnnya project;
3. rizik shkіdlivogo ekologіchnogo vplivu;
4. rizik negatively sotsіalnih naslіdkіv;
5. rizik zmіni Monetary kursіv;
6. rizik neprognozovanoї іnflyatsії;
7. rizik podatkovih vise.

Vnutrіshnі riziki podіlyayutsya for planned fіnansovі, pov'yazanі Zi zrivom planіv robіt i perevitratoyu koshtіv, that tehnіchnі, pov'yazanі Zi zmіnoyu tehnologії, pogіrshennyam of Quality produktsії, pomilkami in design tehnіchnіy dokumentatsії i etc.

Proektnі riziki zumovlenі Especially zhittєvogo project cycle. For otsіnki riziku at viborі varіanta іnvestuvannya mozhna zastosovuvati method ekspertnih otsіnok rizikіv rіznih phases in the project.