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Management of special projects (compendium of lecture NUPSU)

7.4. Project Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis - a technique for analyzing risik, yak rozglyadє sensitivity of reacting to the distance to winter in the key variable values ​​and the average interval of the value of the winter ones.

Analysis of the scenarios of looking out “trash” and “kind” of financial furnishings, so that you can be in a specific situation. If you have a financial analyst, ask the operating manager to give a “fucking” nabir obstavin (low sale price, low sales price, high return on a single, thin), average, or a “big offer”.

Schob to evaluate the overstatement of investment and investment in them, to fully identify them up to one value, and at the same time, to measure the value of forecasting the increase in profitability. The sum of the quantities ymovirnost dorіvnyuє 1.

When evaluating new projects, reconstructing and renovating projects, we recommend that you help you to gain more insights. Visit the rozmir pributka that ymovіrnіst yogo obsession can be for the next step, filled up to the next level, spheres applied capitals (to master I will help, I will help, I can easily get used to it, I’m new). Chim more independance in Kintsev’s result, tim wider than the range of average value. Depends on the complexity, accuracy and analysis, and the manager (econom) added the value of the skin value at the boundaries of the index (Table 7.1.).

Table 7.1. Rozpodil value ymovirnostі och_kuvanikh pributkiv

Estimation of the possible result

Projections surplus, mln. UAH

D

Significance

Pi

Mozhliviy (ochkuvanniy) a ride,

million UAH

(L x Pi)

Project A

Pesimіstichna

10.0

0.20

2.0

Streamman

33.3

0.60

20,0

Optimistic

50,0

0.20

10.0

At once

1.00

32.0 (ds)

Project B

Pesimіstichna

8.0

0.25

2.0

Streamman

30,0

0.50

15.0

Optimistic

60.0

0.25

15.0

At once

1.00

32.0 (ds)

Analizuyuchi ochkuvanі benefits of the projects A і B, slіd mean, sho ry their support for the project A lower (type 10.0 to 50.0), lower than the project B (type 8.0 to 60.0). Inter-dispersion of the project A project - 40.0 (10.0 - 50.0), project B - 52.0 (8.0 - 60.0). The ymirnost of the result won’t be evaluated for three tombs: song, streaming, optimistic. Please note that multiplying the gain by the value of the value and the result of the results is the same as the value of the value of the increase. In both vipads, it was unlikely to be the same - 32.0.

This is a lower draft for project A, which is why, when I take it, the significance of the idea of ​​getting a little better.

Myroch tsikh vidkhilen є mean square value. There is a great deal of visibility to the skin project.

Table 7.2. The value of the mean-square value is the value of the approximate distance.

D

Ds

D - Ds

(D - Ds)

Pi

(D - Ds) x Pi

Project A

10.0

32,0

22.0

484.0

0.20

96.8

33.3

32,0

1.3

1,69

0.60

1.01

50,0

32,0

18.0

324.00

0.20

64.80

At once (dispersion) 162.61

8.0

32,0

24.0

576.00

0.25

144.00

30,0

32,0

2.0

4.00

0.50

2.00

60.0

32,0

28.0

784.00

0.25

196.00

At once (dispersion) 342.00

The value of the mid-square v_dhilennya:

,

de t is the number on the back;

D - projection side;

DS - ochkuvaniyu middle lane;

Рi –ймиірність gained a favor.

Mid-square ochivaniya ochіkuvanih pributkiv for different estimates of the possibility of access to the most expensive:

Project A = ;

Project B .

From now on, the roses will show how much investment is needed for the project. And they’re less expensive, how much can you get from the project 12.7, between the project 18.5.

We took a look at the butt, if in total, the average value was very much for the odd projects, however.

As a matter of fact, it’s important to keep the absolute indicators of dispersion, which are recognized for the help of the rms mean square. At the end of the day, the risk of that project is to be counted as a variator.

Koefіtsієnt variatsії Kv dorіvnyuє vіdnoshennyu mid-square vіdhilennya to ochіkuvany average mean value of the DS

,

The value of the mean square vidhilenny with the lower values ​​of the total average vidhilennya (project) after the other projects is designated similarly to the induced butt.

Our company has a variety of options for acquiring two projects:

Kv project A =

Kv project B =

The lower risik there, de kofitsіnt of variatsі lower. To move to my project, I’m in a lower position, and I’m better able to get rid of the draft. Conducting a rosary checklist to lower the risk of project A, therefore capital investment to contribute to the whole project.

In this way, the analysis of the scenario will take care of us with the cinnamon information and the project. But the method of decoupling is that there’s only a small number of decimals, we want a few results, I want an unlimited number of differences. The present method of visualizing the problem of the project is the problem.