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Ekonomіchny analіz - Bolyuh MA, Burchevsky VZ

3.7. Vikoristannya in ekonomіchnomu analіzі ryadіv dinamіki

For analіzu zmіni ekonomіchnih yavisch i protsesіv for Pevnyi perіod widely vikoristovuyutsya cooperate for dinamіki.

Near dinamіki nazivayut hours poslіdovnіst values ekonomіchnih pokaznikіv. Tse hronologіchnі (momentnі) abo chasovі (іntervalnі) cooperate for values pokaznika, SSMSC give zmogu analіzuvati osoblivostі rozvitku of chi that ekonomіchnogo yavischa. Dinamіki cooperate for shaping can Buti pobudovanі for absolute, vіdnosnimi abo serednіmi values.

Analіz dinamіchnih ryadіv umozhlivlyuє viyavlennya low zakonomіrnostey i tendentsіy, SSMSC viyavlyayutsya in doslіdzhuvanomu yavischі. For Relief ryadіv dinamіki mozhna win a takі danі:

• іntensivnіst zmіni doslіdzhuvanih pokaznikіv (zrostannya, zmenshennya, stabіlnіst);
• serednіy rіven pokaznika i serednyu іntensivnіst for Change;
• tendentsії schodo zmіni pokaznikіv.

Oderzhanі danі give zmogu for neobhіdnostі prognozuvati character zmіni pokaznika in maybutnomu.

Several dinamіki skladaєtsya s dvoh elementіv: momentіv hour (abo dates) that themselves danih scho nazivayutsya rіv nyami row. Butt іntervalnogo number dinamіki imposed in tablitsі 3.2.

Table 3.2 Osnovnі pokazniki dinamіki serednoї zarobіtnoї pay one robіtnika 1996 - 2000 pp.

Is simply subtracting th osmislennya danih, representations at Taqiy sposіb, daє pіdstavi for deyakih vazhlivih analіtichnih visnovkіv. Pong, however, mozhlivі, Yakscho dotrimano osnovnoї minds zastosuvannya porіvnyannya vzagalі priya i, zokrema, pobudovi ryadіv dinamіki - porіvnyannostі vsіh values ​​at scho incoming cooperate for dinamіki. Robot Zi Institution ryadіv dinamіki porіvnyannogo to mind Je tim skladnіshoyu, denote bіlshy hours perіod ohoplyuє analіzovany array of Informácie. Yak can be seen s danih tablitsі 3.2 zarobіtna fee Tsey perіod systematically zrostala (Especially for ostannі prophets).

For povnіshoї characteristics for Change i have tendentsіy dinamіtsі vikoristovuyutsya takі dodatkovі pokazniki: Absolutely prirіst, zrostannya pace, the growth rate, the absolute value of vіdsotka growth.

Absolute growth nazivaєtsya rіznitsya mіzh the following is the number of poperednіm rіvnyami dinamіki (x '- x 0).

Pace zrostannya nazivaєtsya vіdnoshennya the following rіvnya to poperednogo abo to whether yakogo іnshogo rіvnya scho yogo taken as the base porіvnyannya (x ': x 0).

Growth rates nazivaєtsya vіdnoshennya absolute gain to the base rіvnya [(x '- x 0) x 0]. Growth rates Mauger Buti yak rozrahovany rіznitsya mіzh rate zrostannya that odinitseyu (abo 100%).

The absolute value of the increase in vіdsotka rozrahovuєtsya yak vіdnoshennya absolute growth to growth rates, yaky virazheny in vіdsotkah.

Usі tsі pokazniki mozhna obchislyuvati the basal i lantsyugovimi ways. For the basic method of OAO All zmіni obchislyuyutsya stosovno Pochatkova pokaznika, uzyatogo for the base. For lantsyugovogo process for the following skin zmіna pokaznika obchislyuєtsya stosovno poperednogo. Tempi zrostannya that increase can be obchislyuvati in koefіtsієntah (basic pokaznik takes per unit) from abo vіdsotkah (basic pokaznik = 100).

Rows dinamіki often koristuyutsya ekonomіsti-analіtiki. We hover vische prikladі rozglyadavsya dinamіchny number tіlki for one pokaznikom. Ale analіtichnі visnovki buvayut glibshimi i povnіshimi, if vikoristovuєtsya system dinamіchnih ryadіv, tobto pobudova ryadіv dinamіki Zi vzaєmozv'yazanimi pokaznikami. So, napriklad, Yakscho on pіdpriєmstvі zbіlshilis vitrati od marriage dotsіlno sklasti dinamіchnі cooperate for vzaєmozv'yazanih pokaznikіv, analіz yakih umozhlivit viyavlennya reasons tsogo nebazhanogo yavischa. In zv'yazku іz wide zastosuvannyam ryadіv dinamіki in protsesі analіzu neobhіdno pam'yatati scho dostovіrnі visnovki mozhna will win, tіlki dotrimuyuchis of fundamental rights such skladannya ryadіv and the Same:

• Proper vibіr perіodu dinamіchnogo row. Yakscho, napriklad on pіdpriєmstvі zmіnilasya virobіv nomenclature, the inclusion in a row perіodіv s rіznoyu Nomenclature Key infrastructure Mauger Dachi hibne uyavlennya about dinamіku;
• Included in cooperate for dinamіki odnorіdnih pokaznikіv;
• obґruntovany vibіr trivalostі perіodu (іntervalu). Duzhe malі іntervali mozhut uskladniti obrobku row and nadmіrno velikі - prizvesti to userednennya vіdhilen i spotvorennya dіysnoї tendentsії for Change;
• porіvnyannіst otsіnok that іnshih doslіdzhuvanih pokaznikіv;
• bezperervnіst dinamіchnogo row tobto prevent propuskіv Pevnyi perіodіv.