Groshi that loan - Savluk M.I.

7.2. THE NON-VOLATILE VARIANT OF THE KILK-THERAPY FROGS

"Kon'yunkturniy" variant M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky. Naprikinsky XIX - on the cobble of the XX century. With a new force, the discourses on the face of the curse of the theory were pummeled, and the low, obscene surroundings.

In a nutshell, in the middle of the rivet rozvitku soviet-monopolistic capitallism and the ignorance of the crises of capitalism, they caused active involvement of the powers in the economy of the life of the region. Tsya is set up by the vimagala in the sciences of poshiku nayefektivnih shlyahіv і methodіv such vtruchannya, і tsіlkom naturono, shо tі poshuki були спрямовані на грошову обере.

In a different way, the capitalist economy itself has a very penniless credit-and-credit character: they have been transformed from a simple mediator into a key form of capital, the banks of this financial institution have become the regulators of a susceptible vibrobitvita.

In Tsikh minds truncated ochevidnіshimi Stavan nevіdpovіdnіst an old trumpery arrange Gospodarstwa scho bazuvavsya on zolotіy osnovі, novim require suspіlnogo Zhittya that vuzkіst Old uyavlen about sutnіst that fun- funktsіonuvannya trumpery mehanіzmu, nasampered klasichnih postulatіv kіlkіsnoї teorії, that neobhіdnіst їh pereglyadu.

One of the first, hto assimilated tsyu neobhіdnіst і піддав сутєвій ревізії іннійних теорії гроше, у том чисіі кількісної теорії, був український економіст М.І. Tugan-Baranovsky. Naybilsh povno d argledovato its own look at the main monetary problems in the Viklav at paptsi "Paperovi grosi i metal", which was published in 1916.

Bagato uvagi M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky pridiliv kilkіsnіy teoriiї groshe. Spotchatka vіn pіddav kritіcі її klassіchnyi varіant, scho buv vykladeniy u pratsyakh І. Fishera. Tugan-Baranovskyy viznav for the correct formula "rivnyannya obminu", protov vvazhav, sho Fisher nichogo new in kilkisnu teoriiu groshe vzagali not vnіs, but more "vdalo completing the robot and giving the exactions and stylistics of visas in the mathematical form in mathematical forms."

Samu kіlkіsnu теорію in її класичному варіанті Туган-Барановський оцінював is negative about such міркувань:

* Ії прибічники, у того числі І. Фішер, put ціни (і ватість of pennies) at the level of one factor - a bit of a penny, and the solution of factors, navish quietly, in the "rivnyannі obmіnu", іgnoruyut, - hoe vny takі ієктивні і правоірні, як і кількість A penny;

* Ігнорування "некількісних" factorів вливву на ціни змовлюють помилковий висновок about the proportionality of the depth of the cinch in the amount of groschen, hocha napravdі taka proportionality not to be written nі theoretically, not in practice.

Subdivision of the critique of the classic kіlkіsnoї теорії зовсім did not mean a recurrence of the their yor takoy. Навпаки, дона підштовхнула Туган-Барановського до її вскосколенлення, і він зробив істотний высок у її розвиток.

In a nutshell, to bring, in the future. Фішеру, що на рівень цін впливає not one, but all factors, assigned to the "rivnyanni obminu": the number of goods, the price on the market, the number of the pennies themselves, the shvidkіst turnover, the amount of credit to the credit and the turnover. Оскільки всі ці чінники високоплинні і змінються в різних напрямах, then зміни цін і киількості groschen not mozhet buti proportional. The tie of the wings of the mavs is not only theoretically meaningful, but the practicality, the broadening of the front of poshukiv in the presence of such manifestations, the inflation, the monetary policy, the tools are pouring in on the riven tsin tochno.

In a different way, Tugan-Baranovsky doviv, sho vpliv kilkosty groschen na tsini not so unambiguous, straightforward, ya tse viznayut pribichniki klassicheskoi kilkisnoї teorii. Tsei vplyv mozhe zdіysnyuvatisya not one, but for three times the nature of the characters are straight:

1) through the estate of the Suspina popita to the comrade;

2) through a discount rate;

3) through zmіnu syspilnogo уявлення про ватість грошей (пізніше цей factor dіста name інфляційних очікувань).

At the first vipadku znachne zbіlshennia kіlkostі grosz directly zoumovlyuє zrostanya tsіn through zrostaniya zhurnalі і popita na comp. In another, vipadku zlіlshennia kіlkosty penny to bring up zbіlshennya deposits from banks, sho viklikyє znizhennya oblіkovogo percent, rozshirennya kredituvannya ekonomiki i zbіlshennya popita in zinc. Unusloved tsiogo tsini zrostayut, a one-hour stimulate pidpriemnitsvo і rozshirennya vibrobitvtva. In the third vipadku trivale and goodness pomitne zrostannya kіlkosty groschen viklikayє znizhennya otsinki penniless їx vlasyniki і vony pomnut їh shvidshe vitrachati, zbіlshitsya попит на товари і ціни теж зростуть. Three factors can be heard one-time, protuberant exertion on the market is not the same. Tom і зміни цін will not be proportional to the number of kilos of a penny. Otzhe, Tugan-Baranovsky was not satisfied with the simple determination of the depth of the soil in the quantity of pennies, and by cutting to finish the folding mechanism of realiza- tion of the soil.

On-tretє, Tugan-Baranovsky dovіv, sho vplyiv kіlkosty groshen na tsіni zdіysnjєyatsya diversified in the triwalisti tsya settlement of the debt to the amount of pennies. So, short-term chi of an unknown zrostaniya їх кількості mozhut vzagalі not mothers pomitnogo vplyvu tsini i vartit pennies. А значне збільшення кількості

Groshe realizuє svyy vplyv on tsіni in the course of a trivial hour, and that is done in a sinister manner and not in proportion to the overcharged goods. Tsim vin, on suti, having postulated the proportionality, doviv, sho grooshi, not forgive the mediator of the exchange, but also the basis for the admission to the postulate of neutrality.

In the fourth, Tugan-Baranovsky rozkriv mehanіzm vzaєmozalezhnostі mіzh zagalnoyu kіlkіstyu pennies in kraїnі, kіlkіstyu pennies, scho perebuvayut pose obіgom in zaoschadzhennyah, i shvidkіstyu obіgu pennies dovіv scho chinnik shvidkostі Mauger vplivati ​​on tsіni in zvorotnomu vіdnosno dії factor kіlkostі directly neytralіzuyuchi Дію останнього.

The Tugan-Baranovsky settlement created the basis for completing the shliakies with a pile of pennies on the economy and the mechanics of the customary regulation of the sun. Tsim vіn slayed the basis of the so zvanoї teorії regulovanih pennies, yak pіdgotuvala suspіlnu Dumka to vіdmovi od povnotsіnnih (gold) pennies i zamіni їh nepovnotsіnnimi groshima, vartіst yakih bude planomіrno pіdtrimuvatisya powers i s yakoї virosla Suchasna monetaristska teorіya, peredusіm її keynsіansky example.

Розірвавши вузьке коло колопоінійних, пропроених постлаів класичної кількісної теорії грошей, Туган-Барановський істотно розвинув її стосовно до нових економічних умов. Prote look at vin naming not kilkisnoyu, and the conjuncture theory of pennies, mabut shchob vidnedostavatisya vid nadto protschenchengo її varіanta.

The essence of the conjectural theory of the groschen of Tugan-Baranowski Polye in that, zagalny riven tsin, and ozhe і vartitost groshn, vyn pop'kauzu not zkilkistyu pennies, and z zagalnimi umovami commodity-penny rinku, zagalnoj konjukkturoyu commodity rinku. In the phase of economical pidnesennya zagalny riven tsin zrostaє і vartit penny znizhuyutsya. And in the phase of the economic recession, tsini znizhuyutsya і vartist Grosha zrostaє. Ці коллиня цін і Вартості грошей in economical cycle здійснються, on the duma of Tugan-Baranovsky, unseasonably against the clay, tobto pid vplyiv negroshovih chinnikiv.

His "conjuncture theory" of a penny M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky-kyi vibuduvav on the critical klassicheskogo kilkisnoї teorії yak ії alternative. І here він повністю досяг поставленої цілі: після нього вже ніхто з економістів straightforwardly not zahischav Ії класичного варіанта, a whiff that Keynes called old-fashioned. More than that, the "conjuncture theory" zagotkatvala noviy - neoclassic - the stage of development of the kilkisnoї theory. Ajay the contingent factor of the decline of the tin and baroque pennies of Tugan-Baranovsky is not a shoin, but the sukinnism of the usch chinnikov, which is identified on the basis of the word "rivnyannya obminu" in the process of critical rozboru positsi І. Fishe-ra. Zmіna kon'yukturi rink provokuetsya chinnikami, scho dіyut z boku popita і z boku propositsії. On the side of popu - tse kіlkіst of groschen і and obyg of income that shvidkіst obіgu groshe, and z boku proposozіії - tse vyrobnitvva, ріvenь витрат на виробництво і рівень цін.

Otzhe, kіlkіsny factor in kon'yunkturnіy teorії pennies Tugan-Baranovskogo prisutnіy, i do not yak zvichayny, rіvny Bhagat іnshim and yak klyuchovy, oskіlki zmіna kіlkostі pennies vplivaє tієyu chi іnshoyu mіroyu i at OAO All INSHI chinniki: on shvidkіst obіgu pennies, interest rates , Investments, the vibrokittyva's levy is thin. This is a conjecture of the theory of pennies on the day of its bulletin, or even on the principle of the opposite, if the bullet has been found to be unproportionable to the price of grotesque vineyards. І цього не міг не розуміти M. І. Tugan-Baranovsky, through scho yogo stavlennya to kilkisnoї teorії vzagali boulo to hang up tolerant: "Kilkisna teorіya abstractly tіlkom fair", - write in one in one місці. In the context of a particular factor, the number of factors of a specific factor is: "Commodity prices are not to be counted as a pittance for themselves, but for people living in poverty and drinking to death." Tse buv іstotny krok u bіk pogliblennya analiza dії kіlkіsnogo factor, and not yogi zapeperchennya. I was tseleno tselolo in the boundaries of the "conjuncture theory" of pennies.

Uvedennya in the field of scientific dosleniya sip on grosi meant dokorinnu zmіnu spryamuvannya samoi kilkisnoї teorii. The substitution of the macroeconomic analysis of the call "groschen-tsini" won out to the microeconomic aspects of the formality of populism, which became a key idea.

Transferring mehanizm vpplyu pennies on the real economy on the pidstavi "kon'jukturnoi teorii" Tugan-Baranovsky can be taxed at such viglyadі:

Mal. 51

Pouring a pittance on the economy of the "conjecture theory" Tugan-Baranovsky

De M-kilkist pennies, K - the conjuncture of the rink, R - cyni, B - vibrobnitsu.

"Cambridge version". One s Persha doslіdnikіv popitu on groshі s mіkroekonomіchnih pozitsіy boule professor Kembridzhskogo unіversitetu A. Marshall, A. Pіgu, D. Robertson, J. M. Keynes (from svoїh rannіh Prace) їh Explanation mehanіzmu nakopichennya pennies that vplivu on tsіni dіstali NAME " Teorii kasovikh zalishkiv ", abo" cambridge versions ".

Podіbno Fіscheru, the representatives of the Cambridge school, adhered to the thesis about vpplyv zmіni macy groschen na rіven tsin. Проте, на відміну від І. Fishera, їх підхід to problems був not macro, but мік-роекономічний, і стосувався насамперед попиту на гроші. Cambridge Economists mainly respected zoisredili on the motives of a pile of pennies in okremih ekonomichnyh sub'ektiv. Pong of Namangan dati vіdpovіd on takі power: chomu people zberіgayut groshі, od chinnikіv yakih deposits rozmіr popitu їh on groshі, od yakih deposits chinnikіv popit gospodaryuyuchih sub'єktіv on kasovі zalishki that іn.

Vazhlivoyu vіdmіnnіstyu "kembridzhskoї versії" Bulo those scho pennies rozmіri nagromadzhennya not nav'yazuvalisya gospodaryuyuchim sub'єktam іz "zalіznoyu neobhіdnіstyu" zgori, s quiet side structures i chinnikіv, SSMSC "poured" into circulation groshі and viznachalisya motives їh povedіnki, їh Overripe rsishennyami. Such motives accumulated a penny a penny vvazhali:

1) require in the stock of loans and payments for the settlement of current payments (transac- tive motive);

2) require in the reserve a penny for pokrtya neperedbachuvanih needs (motive obachnosty). In the course of the Pole, an important outfit of the Cambridge school in the monetarist policy is:

* In the sphere of concrete-applied analysis, buli included grosi, not yak zakobi obigu і payment, and yak zasіb nagromadzhennia vartosti;

* У поняття кількості of groshe began to be included in all nayavnі groshi - як ті, що обслуговуть consumers обігу, so iі ті, щo нагромаджються;

* For the skin part of the original masi penny, the basis of the form is filed - the motivations of the economical sub-elements of the grocery reserve;

* The demand in the pennies of the bula is broadened for the inter-consumer needs and has become included in the pennies for tsilia pogromadzhennya;

* The boole has been expanded to the same extent as the shvikostyi of the groschen for the rakhunok viznannya such, oh, wrapped, and penny-pounded, tilki z arge small shvidkistyu.

Novі підходи до вирішення of the problems of the thundering theory provided the ability to formulate a new monetary indicator - a factor, which is characterized by a part of the succinct income, yak of economical sub'ecti bashayut tri-mati with grotesque (illicit) forms. For his zmistom tsey pokaznik є protivolezhim ostentatnik shvidkosti groshe і viznachaetsya yak k = 1 / V. Він відомий також як "кефіцієнт Маршалла", що it is characteristic рівень монетизації GDP.

Zalezhnіst nakopichennya pennies in ekonomіchnih sub'єktіv (popitu on groshі) od obsyagu viroblenogo product that rіvnya rozvitku їh motivіv to formuvannya kasovih zalishkіv Bula Virage formula, scho dіstala titles "kembridzhskogo rіvnyannya":

Mal. 52

Kambrids'ke rіvnyannya "попиту на гроші

De Md - popit on the gros (kasovi lining);

K - koefitsynt, scho virazhaye partnu rіchnogo income, yaku sub'єktі зберігають у ліквідній формаі (кефіцієнт Marshall);

Р - the middle рівень цін;

Y - vibrobitvtva's vigilance in natural viraz.

For zvnіshnіm signs, the formula "kambrizhskogo рівняння" will guess the formula "рівняння обміну" І. Fishera. Ajsa yakschoo somebody k zamіniti on 1 / V transfer tsey pokaznik in the section to the left

Рівняння, то ці the word is vyyavlyayutsya подббними. Проте по суті вони істотно різняться. Adzhe they have pose mentors M: the first formula (I.Fishera) - tsekilkіst pennies, but actually obeslugovuyuschy consumer goods, and in others - the value of the senorial sink on the fringes of cash. Kіlkіsno not zbіgayutsya pokaznik i k i - Tsikh formulas oskіlki koefіtsієnt k in "kembridzhskomu rіvnyannі" viznachaєtsya on vsomu stock pennies and pokaznik - at formulі "rіvnyannya obmіnu" - in stock pennies, scho obslugovuє require obіgu (transaktsіynomu stock). Tom zalezhnіst tsіn od kіlkostі pennies from "kembridzhskomu rіvnyannі" uskladnena uniquely bіlshe, nіzh in "rіvnyannі obmіnu" and otzhe, "kembridzhska versіya" od klasychnoji kіlkіsnoї teorії pennies vіddalena uniquely Dali, nіzh "transaktsіyna" versіya I. Fishera. Ії author справді вийшли за вузькі межі класичних постлатів кількісної теорії і відкрили шлях до наукового дослідження об'єктивних процесів, що формують попит на гроші.