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Commodity Innovation Policy - Kardash V.Ya.

7.2. Forecast Method

Popularity of a new product - the center of creative creativity of people. Creativity of the indivisum in the be-yakіy sphere is crucial for the last, but in the house I’ll call 2000 science and science I’ll call the science method. He clarified the essence of the great ancient antique philosopher Aristotel (384-322 rr. BC.). The meanings of which, more often than not, are the science of the method with discrete virologic cycle and uninterrupted marketing interchange that can help them to get the same logic (tab. 31).

Table 31

STAGES OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Science method

Etapi marketing intermediation of product innovation

1. Viznazhennya zavdannya

1. Consumer value

2. Thanks to the fact that I’m ready to wait until the day

2. Vivchenny consumer

3. Congestion of knowledge

3. A short marketing description of the viroba (parameters, characteristics, organoleptic vimogs, just look at it right)

4. Formula hypotheses

4. Separation of the project. Marketing analysis and forecasting of predictive powers of the government trends of positive changes

5. Pіdtverdzhennya hypothesis experiment

5. Operational design specified to the project. Marketing and differentiation of the most reasonable liability for the product, the price, the result of the original product and the unique product

6. Reconfiguration of chi pardons, hypotheses, remnantly accept chi vidhilennya

6. Virobnitstvo, delivery to the customer, additional operation. Marketing test product, Zbutu development

Zmіst tables will reconfigure us once more at the triumph of zmіstu marketing, such as philosophy, the mystery of science. Searching for an idea of ​​food innovation is based on victorious foreign methods of science and technology, and to some extent, introduce methods of theoretical and empowerment.

I’m building a new product, often victorious methods of forecasting, for which I can predict the development of a different product, as well as the minds of a new product.

Prediction є by a kind of science-based transfer, like Vrakhov’s obvious causal-related sounds, as predicted by the same real names, objects, indicators. In science, I will become convinced that I will become a commodity in May and alternative alternatives and termination of product development by the head method of generating and selling food innovations. The forecasting method is based on factual and expert analysis (Fig. 63).

Classification methods for forecasting

Fig. 63. Classification method for forecasting

Before the factual (formalized) methods include:

  • statistical methods (forecast extrapolation, regression analysis);
  • methods of analogy (mathematical, historical);
  • advanced methods (analysis of the dynamics of science and technology information, forecasting method of technology).

These methods are based on victorious news and information on information about how little is missing. The factual information of the buti is fixed on any nose.

Statistical methods include forecasting extrapolation and regression analysis. It’s stinky to rely on ordinary mathematical equipment for the future, for a similar description of the behavior of the object, which can be found out. It is predicted that extrapolation will be provided by approximation by polynomials, extrapolation by standard functions, extrapolation by discount information, and extrapolation by circumvented curves [7]. The method is straightened out for the simplest kind of functions, as much as possible get closer to real development of the process, and then analyze. Methods of regression analysis, auto-regression models, bag-factor models, paired registers. The main goal is to get a statistical analysis of the statistics in the forecast forecast, to borrow from the actual factor registers for the extrapolation of the forecasted forecasts.

Widely stashed for the generation of new ideas as well as factual methods and analogies . With the help of victorious mathematical and historical analogues. Prior to applying economic models and analogs. They are most likely to look like the simplest models of economic forecasting. Historical counterparts to overworking (Galusian chi regional). For example, the model of increased number of analogous goods and third-party deputies was encouraged for the analogy of multiple distributions.

Advanced methods for analyzing the science and technology information and forecasting the development of technology. Їx encouraged by the victories of the authorities of science and technology and information and the implementation of science and technology reach without interruption in virobnitsvі. For example, the patent method for predicting the transfer of an estimate for a singing criterion system of fundamentally new winners and up-to-date dynamics of patent patent. The public method of forecasting is based on the estimate of the dynamics and dynamics of the public policy. A similar way is the first and second method of forecasting, which is based on the analysis of the dynamics of the author of the most serious problems associated with the development of a different product. In addition, it seems that the secondary methods of predicting the ability to transmit the appearance of the same sound between the dynamics of science and technology and the science and technology development. The main sources of information for advanced methods of forecasting are copyright, licensing, commercial visions (catalogs, brochures, publicity).

Expert (intuitive) methodology to transfer the word of honor for the general idea of ​​high-tech fakivtsivnіvіdpovіdno galuzі. I want to take the competence and the intuition as the main factor in assessing the prospects for developing this type of product. Intensively Victoria’s best practices in marketing and marketing are explained in more detail: Efficiency of new tasks for the development of tasks is incomplete and super-informative. The wide range of expert methods for marketing is wide, and the next time that experts can be expertly clever, they are divided into two classes: organoleptic and rozumov. For the viscera of Persians (viznozhenneniya relish kharchovih products, the smell of perfumes, zruchnosti koristuvannya tool), experts are corroded by the organs of sympathy. Rozumov zavdannya perevoznuyutsya reluctantly voznushennya koofіtsієntіv vagomostі (significant), complex estimates oschno. Zrozumіlo, which is clearly readable between these classes of dumb, ale come to them є up and down often lie in the form of special brutes of learned experts. Yak vidomo, the term "expert" (vid lat. "Achievements") is called fakhivtsya in the halls of science, technology, management, marketing and other areas of activity, which you can get to develop food, I need to know special. However, the meaning of the word is that, in addition to the knowledge of the expert, the role of the interview is important. At first glance, it seems inconsistent with the marketing management for taking strategic decisions about product innovation and information - there are two dzherel, but it is possible to switch on one. But it’s not so much, the fragmentation of intuition isn’t more mystical, but it’s almost the same, the image of the lesson and the other is based on knowledge and experience, since there is no need to know more about it: In fact, in the innovative marketing of the Internet, you can take a special approach to take the decision, since the choice is not informative, it is unacceptable for normal conditions to take the strategic decision. The main goal of the expert method is the ability to analyze and predict the history, not a little historical development (for example, the forecast is a fundamentally new product), and I have a good understanding of it. By adding positive expert methods, there is also the possibility of transferring more information from the process, more information from more factual methods to broaden the May retrospective trend. For this, we’ll need to make sure that we’ve got a better idea of ​​marriage, if we have a marriage of statistical information (because of a lack), we’ve got more and more ideas, and there’s a great deal of money ) To change the negative impact of sub-activism, you need to clearly identify the rules for experts to accept the rule.

Depends on the principle of good practice and expert forecasting methodology:

- індивідуальні експерні otsіnki (direct education, in absentia education);

- Collective expert evaluations that allow you to collectively generate ideas (“fall-out” -intelligent experiment, “non-fall-back” -interestmental experiment).

From now on, these methods should be based on an opportunity later to prospectively develop the site, to be reprimanded for the results of special intramural, extramural, group and indi- vidual, personified and anonymous experts. INDIVIDUAL EXPERTS EVALUATIONS REPORT THE INFORMATION ON THE RESULTS OF ONE EXPERIMENT. Depending on the fact that yak was carried out, such estimates are intelligently distributed on the ways of direct and anonimous nutrition. Before the first to introduce the first method and the method of psycho-intellectual generation, and before the others, the first and second assessment (additional note), the script method, the morphological analysis of the skinny.

However, the recognition of the expert method is irreplaceable for the first and second transmission of such minds:

  • an expert assessment of the need to spend less time, if it’s impotent for the past about the “active method”;
  • the robot of the expert committee with the amusement of the officials of the negative pressure on the thought of the experts: the experts of the exhibition may have the most valuable ones;
  • food, which should be put before experts, cannot be an alternative mother to tlumachen;
  • Experts stir up the buti with sufficient competence in the problems posed;
  • kіlkіst experts guilty of the best;
  • відповіді practice Mayuyu buti unequivocal and to protect the ability of mathematical mathematical testing and interpretation.

An important, innovative mindset of the expert method є the warehouse of the office. The expert, who is his own “vimyruvalny instrument”, so the very one and the rest, is guilty of vidpovidaty singing vimogs with precision and supreme result. There is also a need for a match for the first and second instruction of the expert. At the final stage of the form of the expert group, to conduct a thorough test, to give self-assessment and mutual evaluation, to analyze the necessary information and to reconsider the ideas. Testing the transfer of knowledge by experts from our best friends, with the ability to test for the singing standard scale, which I can help you to compete and professional. Self-assessment of experts is carried out as vidpovid skin with them on the nutrition of a specially fragmented questionnaire (hour on vidpovіd otmazhyutsya). I’ll also take care of self-assessment with experts from my professional knowledge and business skills at the balls. So it’s carried out by myself and the expert. Yakshcho робот information about the results of the expert robot in the higher groups, criterion of the first qualification can serve as an indicator of high performance, that is to say the most helpful, the number of experts has been very helpful. Such pidkhid before vidboru experts I will needє, truth, awards and the analysis of the great oath of information, but also give me the opportunity to thoroughly refurbish the main warehouse of the expert groups.

For the form of the expert group, great respect is required to come together with the thoughtful participants. This indicator is characterized by the so-called distributed (chi unprotected) assessment of dispersion. For the first stage at the stage of the form of the expert group, the control vimiruvannya is carried out with mathematical processing from the end results. It’s not easy at all to have victorious knowledge of the country, which is irrelevant because of the significant importance of the low pressure on the residual result of the need for roster according to the scale order, so that you can indicate the highest rank. Vimіryuvannya on a scale of order, I will name ranking. For the umpteenth time for the grace of the practical ideas of experts, take the following rankings of concordance ( W ):

some concordant ,

de S - suma kvartіv vіdhilen sumy rank і skin area of ​​the expertise of the middle arithmetic average of all ranks;

n - expert opinion;

m - kіlkіst ob'єktіv expertise.

Fallowing the river of Uzgodzhennosti Dumka experts, the number of concordants can collect the value of 0 (one year marriage of the year) to 1 (due to one). Yak butt roznjanmo ryven Uzgenzhenostі dumok p'yat ekspertіv schodo znachitelnosti vplyu vpremu okramikh komniktsa kommertsіnogo riziku on a market success of an innovative product. The results of evaluation and ranking are shown in table. 32.

Table 32

VIKHIDNI DANI FOR THE REMAINING COEFFICIENT

Commercial riziki

Otsіnka ekspertіv

Suma Rank

Vidkhilennya vid middle arithmetic

Square arithmetic mean vid

first

of another

third

the fourth

fifth

1. Unavailable week-end on the market with food innovation

4

6

4

4

3

21

1

1

2. Nevikonannya minds please

3

3

2

3

4

fifteen

-5

25

3. Competition

2

2

1

2

2

9

eleven

121

4. Ineffectiveness of the zbutovo measure

6

5

6

5

6

28

8

64

5. Low obyazh realizatsії goods

1

1

3

1

1

7

-thirteen

169

6. Rіzke padіnnya ear of cobs

5

4

5

6

5

25

5

25

7. Zmіni bіrzhovih prices on comrade

7

7

7

7

7

35

fifteen

225

Vikhodyachi іz Dan table. 31 will count:

1) the sum of the square v_dhilennya S = 630;

2) Concordance factor W = 0.9.

From now on, conducted a rosemary, give visnesuvma zmogu, scho ryven Uzgenzhennosti dumok members of an expert group є dostatnіm.

Slide mean, what is needed for the experts in the group, the accuracy of the growth. I’m ready for the next training for the experts, for the transfer of the special training with the required negotiation results and the mercy. At times, if there are opportunities for the future preparation of experts for marriage, the methods are fastened.

Three of them are most often bored with the "Delphic method" from the round of tours. The win is based on the official assessment of the expert group after one-time anonimous nutrition and more frequent results of the previous round. All the best is the opportunity for experts to round out their assessments on the offensive tour. Meta " Delphi method " - prediction of science of transfer of terms and words to singing ideas of experts. The “Delphi method” was broken up in 1964. Fakhivtsi American firm "Rand Corporation" G. Gordon and O. Helmer і named after the honor of the Greek minister Delphi, who is known for his oracle priests. The transfer method for the top viewer:

  • statement with the help of special special questionnaires seriї food, vіdpovіdі on yakі guilty enough characterize the subject;
  • bagatorazovu procedure;
  • Announcement of the results of the previous round of nutrition all the fakhivtsiv-ekspertiv;
  • otrimannya vid experts, thoughts of any significantly viddumki bіlshostі, explanation of the reasons for such vidkhilen;
  • the last (before the round to the round), the statistical processing of the experts for the average statistical characteristics.

Expertly, please feel free to three-hour etapi, with the first questionnaire in the questionnaires of the first round, the order is from information about the problems, and I’ll put an order to familiarize them with them.

In the questionnaires of another round, they are formed based on the results of statistical processing of the results of the first examination, asking for the terms of singing (for example, appearance of medical preparations for the absolute cleanup of the syndrome of packed immunodeficiency syndrome - SNID). Finish off the results of another round to bring to the experts ’room at the third round, if you are willing to be able to, but to keep up with the best, or just argue your thought. For the necessary iterative process, it is possible to promote (quarters, concepts and offensive tours). Yakshcho riznitsya srednistatistichnyh estimates of the two remaining tours do not overstate the established value of the bend, so that I can lean on.

The main characteristics of the results of the study are to math mathematically very much (the average value for the simplest) and the variance (characteristic for the average) of the meanings, as well as the value of the quartile. Increased value of the ability to transfer the terminology (mostly rock) maybodny podії. Between the quartiles - there are two values ​​that need to be measured. It’s stinky to recognize the range, in which 50% of the votes of the expert team can be seen. All of them will be more and less optimistic forecasts terminality realize a fundamentally new product. Thoughts of the last 50% of experts are divided evenly: 25% of votes reinterpret the most important term in the range 25% lower for the lower term. On the offensive tour, I would like to give experts an idea of ​​inter-quartile and timid care, thought didn’t waste in the middle 50% range, but they didn’t have to, but they didn’t have to give up their time. The results are that obruntuvannya accused of the upcoming tour. Otzhe, characteristic signs of the "Delphi method" є:

  • анонімність: експерти не зустрічаються один з одним, щоб уникнути емоційного та професійного взаємовпливу;
  • багатоетапність: після кожного туру опитування всі експерти знайомляться з думками кожного з них і за необхідності подають письмові мотивування свого погляду. Погоджуючись або не погоджуючись з думками своїх колег, вони можуть переглядати власні погляди;
  • контроль: після кожного туру перевіряється узгодженість думок експертів, допоки варіювання окремих думок не досягне встановленої межі.

Головним недоліком цього методу є організаційна складність та тривалість проведення багаторівневого опитування. Але його застосування особливо корисне за розв'язування стратегічних питань продуктової інновації, пов'язаних зі значними інвестиціями та новітніми розробленнями у сфері фундаментальних наук [7].

Таким чином, фактографічні методи дають змогу використовувати об'єктивні дані ретроспективного характеру, оцінювати перспективу і моделювати весь процес розвитку об'єкта. Їх використання передбачає поширення тенденцій розвитку об'єкта на весь період прогнозування, однак вони не завжди спроможні взяти до уваги можливість якісних стрибків у русі того чи того явища в майбутньому. Натомість експертні методи уможливлюють аналіз перспективи розвитку явища за браком його попередньої історії, прогнозування якісних змін у процесі розвитку об'єкта. Головним їхнім недоліком є складність проведення опитувань і наступної обробки отриманих даних, а також неможливість цілком уникнути суб'єктивних оцінок.