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Politically economical - Krivenko K.T.

18.3.3. Overwrite (cause) the cycle.

Існують різні пізні пільді інцід інo the appearance of the reruns of the middle економічних cycles. Sered them to the credit of merit so:

1) the cycle of caliviyne zoumovleni specifikoyu spheri obogu - rozbіzhnistyu chasі anktyv sale of goods, ugig і pay for them (the proto is less formal, but not the real reason);

2) the main reason for the decline is the superpersonality of the person with the susceptible nature of the virbitnctva and the private form of the prenuptial yogi result (K. Marx, F. Engels and others). Shche before Marx was close to the position of the people, the economical recession was explaining to the underrepresented people who were ignorant people, yak boulo viklikane nezdoliki rozpodilu (J. Hobson, G. Malthus);

3) the cycle of zovmlyuyutsya spivvodnoshennyam optimism and pesimism in economical diyalnost people (V. Pareto, A. Pigu);

4) cycle - the result of technical innovations, but vimagae zrostanya інвестицій, and the rest спричиняють піднесення виробництва (J. Schumpeter);

5) cyclicity zoumovlyuetsya overly zaoschadzhen and nevachecheu інвестицій у виробництво (J. Keynes);

6) the cause of cycles - the lack of access to information in the form of a penniless capitalist and yogo proponuvannam (I Fischer).

Незважаючи на відмінність у підходах, it is practical всі згадані економічні концепції розглядають економічний цикл yak pedigree of internal causes. Tse - so zvanі іnernalnі teorії .

Ті ж теорії, які explanatory to the appearance of economic cycles for reasons, for example, to the cause of sonic activity, to bring up to nevrozhayu in sylskomu gosdarstvі ta up to the fatal economic slump, vynnyami і різними політичними shocks, development of new teritorі (шо змовлює надмірну міграцію робочої сили), називаються Ekternalnimi.

The characteristic features of the medieval cycles, the Enlightenment of the other religions are: in the first place, the rapidity of the triwalosts, but it is objectively imposed on the potentates of dynamism (zmenshennyam periodov) on the main capital in the scientific and technological revolution; In a different way, neobovyazykovost poslіdnogo prohodzhennya traditsynyhnyh phases cycle, zokrema phasis pidnesennya. Buivayut cycle, if the phase of the pozhvlavlenya without pidnesennya advance, there is a new crisis; On-trete, zmenshenny ruinivnoe nature of the crisis. Tsiomu spriyeє і досвід державно антициклічного регулювання, нагромаджений країнами з розвинутою ринковою економікою.

For short cycles in the middle of a cycle in the middle of a trivalous (materialistic approach to the function of the main capital), the material basis is the process, which is invoked in the sphere of grotesquies. Wongs are characterized by a particular intensity and that gostrotoyu і mozhut abo pokladatis' on promyslovi (serednі) crisi, podobidvatis for їх відсутності.

18.3.4. The Dovgy Cycle (Hvil).

Dovgostrokov cyclical calivities in economics vcheni-ekonomisty vyayvili in the other half of XIX century. One of the first їх дослідників був англійський економіст US S. Dzhevons. Okrem aspect of the old cycles, abov dovhgih hvil, doslidzhuyutsya vzhe ponadittya bagatma vchcimi.

A special role in the development of theories of the old hvil lies with the Russian scientist MD Kondratyev. Він ще у 20-х рр. XX century. Publikuvav low analatichnih prats, in some practical zdіysniv batalofaktorny analiz ekonomichnogo rozvitku Anglії, Frantsії ta USA per perod 100-150 rokіv. Theory of the past Hvil Kondratyeva is small, flocking to the present rozvitok of your science.

For tsією теорією, in a nutshell, НТП it is grown up хвилеподібно with cycles in 50-60 років. In a different way, the material basis of the old hvil in economics is the structure of technology and technology, it is the source of capital goods and investment in the professionally-kvalifikatsionnogo rivnya pratsyuchih. On-tretє, at structures dovgostrokovyh kolektov M. Kondratyev vidokremiv two stages, abo dvi phasis rozvitku - vishidnu i nizhidnu.

Vishidna phase dovgogo cycle - tse period dovgochasnogo pidnesennya naukovo-tehnichnogo e ekonomichnogo rozvitku suspilstva, a kind of three to twenty to 30 rock. The danii period is not affected by the cyclical economic crisis, yaki rozvivayutsya zazvichay na rivnі trivalogo zagalnogo pidnesennya rinkovoi konjunkturi.

The low (decay) phase of the long cycle is the transfer of the basis of basic techno-technologic ambushes of the vibrochnic system, a trivial 20-25 rock. For nyogo characteristic perebudovichi process ekonomichnoy structured, which is adequate to technologic ontology. This is the rank, the theory of the long cycles, the emphasis on the clarified one, which in economics is trivial for the high-level economic activity. The zagalna tendentsiya ekonomichnogo zrostannja mozhe zbіgatisya z kontrendentsієyu viglyadі spadіv at mezhah serednіh cycling, beside that number on the vіhіdnomu vіdіzku довгих hvil. Відповідно, і tendcія up to znіzhennja na nіhіhіdnomu etapі dovіgih tsikliіv not viklyuche pіdnesennya perіод середніх cyclesів.

Досвід розвитку світової економіки showing, schо теорія довгих хвиль dostovіrno prognozuє rozvitok suspilnogo vіdvitrennia. For the daily minds dovgі hvilі not mozhut not zdіysnjuvati істотного впливу на традиційні промислові цикли. Yaksho kriza vibuhaє in the first cycle of the great cycle, then the zymovlyuya її bіlsh glybokyі and protracted character, so itself yі і vishіdna hvіlya great cycle mozhe positively вплинути на більш динамічний вихід із кризовой стану.

Economical science is strengthened and not without success, shka hatsi і method of neutralizing negative feedbacks vplyiv cycle on socially-economical development of susp.