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Model of economics - Vіtlіnsky V.V.

2.2.3. Віпадковість і unappointment of economic development

For the methodology of planning, the more important is the importance of understanding the unapproachability of economic development . In terms of economic forecasting and planning, there are two types of unintentionality: “true”, cliched by the authorities of economic processes, and information, unreliable and inaccurate information. True innocence is not possible to cheat on the most effective ways to save money and how much you need to choose the best options. Іdetsya about the principle of the impossibility of exact vibration of one optimal option.

In the development of economy, it is unlikely that the two causes are wicked. In the first place , having overstepped the planning and cherishing processes, as well as challenging processes, you cannot exactly transmit them through the flow of vipadnikov і and obmezhenіst human recognition at the skin moment. Especially characteristic is the prediction of the progress in science and technology progress, the consumption of consumerism, and economic behavior. In a different way, the main plan for the future government and management are not less than all-inclusive, but not all-powerful, but the manifestation of the many independent economic sub-sectors with special interests does not permit the exact transfer of results. Inconsistency and inaccuracy of information about the efficient processes and economic behavior of unavailability.

On the first stages, the previous model economized in the main model of the determinate type. In these models, the parameters were definitely seen. However, determinate models cannot be mechanically driven with models, which add more steps to the vibration (the ability to vibrate) and may have a single permissible separation. With a classic butt of ruggedly deterministic models є an optimization model of national gospelhood, it has been fixed for the purpose of identifying an attractive option for economical development of the middle of a plurality of acceptable options.

Unsurpassed accumulation of victorious and ruggedly determinate models of boolean goals, real opportunities of successful consolidation of more thorough methodology, modeling of economical processes, as well as randomness. Here you can violocremit the two main ones directly. First of all , the technique of models of the hard-to-determine type is thoroughly explained: carrying out bagged versions of models and model experiments with different designs and models of different types; the value of the performance and the supremacy of the decision, the violation of the zones of negligence; included in the model of permanent reserves, storing primes, yakі pіdvishchuyut prostosovuvanіst ekonomіchnyh rishhen to ymovirnyh i neperdachivanih situations. In another way, formuyut modelі, SSMSC bezposeredno vіdobrazhayut Stochastic i neviznachenіst ekonomіchnih protsesіv i vikoristovuyut vіdpovіdny ically mathematical aparata: teorіyu ymovіrnostey i ically mathematical statistics teorіyu gris i randomness rіshen, teorіyu masovogo obslugovuvannya, stochasticity programuvannya, teorіyu vipadkovih protsesіv, teorіyu nechіtkih mnozhin toscho.