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Modeluvannya ekonomiki - Vіtlіnskiy V.V.

14.4. Macroeconomic Policies and "Lucas Criticism"

Yak bulo is shown in the transverse material, the macroeconomic system is reacting to the zoning of call-ups (exogenous) in the models of zmіnnih, tobto to priinyatu macroeconomy polity. It was assumed that the basic structural parameters of the macroeconomic model (system) are obscured by inventors of schodos of types of polarities. The macroeconomic policy of the form is not less than the first rate, but the regime for the development of the economy in short for the pre-construction period, then the system parameters (14.1) can not be replaced by the economic and political regime.

Makroekonomіchna polіtika vvazhaєtsya Passive (neutral), Yakscho not won vplivaє on makroekonomіchnu situatsіyu, zokrema not nablizhaє virobnitstvo to yogo potentsіynogo rіvnya through zmіni values ​​defіtsitu budget, bezrobіttya, normalized vіdsotka, obmіnnogo rate іnflyatsії chi.

Interest to the problems of "neutrality" of the macroeconomic policy, the visions in the praecies of the clasics, the repetition of the impulse of the issue of the publication of R. Lukas, the result of the yogic accomplishment of the possessions held in the course of the macroeconomy. Yogo pіdhіd ґрунтується на використанні спеціальної функції агрованованої пропозиції, котра (in logarithms) written down as follows:

(14.10)

De yt - a stream of streaming vibration at the time of t ; - riven a potentine-mozlivogo vibrobitvtva; Pt - flow rates at the time t ; - uchikuvannya schodo rivnya tsіn at the time of the hour t , otrimanі na pіdstavі іnformatsії, available at the moment ( t - 1); - vipadkovi zburennya schodo agregowanoi propositiei, kotrі vvazhayutsya nezalezhnimi y chasі, normally rozpodolenimi z zul'ovim srednnіm i skіchenchennuu disperse.

In the model of Lucas, the real marketplace is worthy to be effective in that rozumni, scho yogo participants mittevo vikoristovuyu syu informatsiyu, yaku reaguyut tsini. Очікування (сподівання) економічних агенів на ефективному ринку

(14.11)

Є ratsionalnyh, tobto, in principle, formulate itself so, yk vidbuvayetsya userennennya vipadkovomu protsessi:

(14.12)

De E - operator of rational settlements (ochikuvan); W t - 1 - Informational multiplier, it is available to the vibro-fighters at the time of the hour ( t - 1), if you want to form your own; Et - Vipadkova nekorelovana abduction peredbachennya, scho mae nulove serednі і skіchenchennu dispersion.

Дане рівняння стверджує, що фактичні ціни колииться навколо свого раціонального передбачення із суто випадкоююююююю, пo має нульове середнє і скінченну дисперсію. Taka zalizhnіst mіzh peredbachim і actual rivnem tsіn іsnue, for viznachennyam, on efektivnomu rinku, de tsіni absolutely ruhomi, postinoy vrіnovazhayut popit i propositsіyu. Tse є mozhlivim, if tsi ni ponnistyu reaguyut on a new information, kotra practical mittєvo стає available to all participants rinku. Cі participants, with such a rank, postpavlenie mozhnovostі vikoristovuvaty svoy-timyasovі іnformatsіynі perevagi z metomu otrymanny arbitragovogo pributku. It is signable, but the hypothesis of the symmetric information is justified by the strictness and practice, as a rule, it is impossible to manage. Doslіjdzhennya rinkіv z asimetricnomu іnformatsієyu є nazvichayno actual. Three American students for the so-and-so did not return the Nobel Prize for the 2001 ric from the economy's economy. Modelyuvannya asimetricnih rinkyv zalyshyatsya actual and nadal.

For ratsіonalnih ochіkuvan, oskіlki basis values tsіn exactly peredbachiti in printsipі nemozhlivo at scho vkazuє i (14.12), ratsіonalnim peredbachennyam tsіn (chi іnflyatsії) at time t Mauger Buti, zokrema, їhnє values at the time (t - 1):

(14.13)

Yak mozhna otrimati, pripuskayuchi vidpovidnі gipotizi, obkoblyuyuchi spodivannya in both parts of the river area (14.12), oskilki

For гіпотези раціональних очікувань znachennja tsіn u rіznі momeni chasu poіdnіnі рівнянням випадкового блукання:

(14.14)

Cotra at danyomu razi formally - the model of dinamiki tsin for discrete vipadkovyh protsessiv.

Hypothesis ratsionalnyh ochikuvan, scho ґruntuyetsya na umyutti efektivnogo rinku, as a basis ochikuvannya low (bugatokh) visno posobnoformovaniyah agentov, and the operator ratsionalnykh ochikuvan є not sho іnshe, yak mathematician spodivannya. On our duma, yak bilsh adequate in situations with an asymmetric rozpodilom value vipadkovo value, yak ochikuyut poinformovanny agency, you can pick up the fashion of honey. At the same time, the magnitude of the flow can be scaled down to the size of the risk.

Stosovno to Rinku s asymmetry indices rozpodіlenoyu іnformatsієyu, digit (suttєvimi) lags the first obmezhennyami commodity market analysis, market analysis Especially pratsі - vpevnenіst schodo adekvatnostі ratsіonalnih ochіkuvan not taka vzhe th great i vіdbivaє sumnіvi bagatoh ekonomіstіv. Here - a great simpler for the submissive science-related docs on the conceptual, and on the model (technical) rivers.

Umov (14.6) to roar overhead, and zagalom і nepotibnimi all autoregresiyni schema formovaniya ochіkuvan, zokrema іnflyatsіynih. However, Economy perehіdnogo perіodu, transformatsіynoї Economy, if zsuvi Je suttєvimi, if vagomіst poperednoї іstorії rіzko znizhuєtsya, Especially in korotkostrokovomu perіodі vnaslіdok suttєvih (chi Fundamental) Change log sotsіalno-polіtichnogo character metodologіya ratsіonalnih ochіkuvan s urahuvannyam riziku Je Especially expired, and for naukovtsіv - The prearranged. T. Sargent write, napriklad, about exchanged ratsionalnyi ochikuvannya, power for transformatsionnoi ekonomiki.

Sutnist tverdzhennya schodo "neutrality" macroeconomic polity in the uchrauvannya ratsionalnyh ochikuvan can be prodemonstruvati such a rank. Obchislyuyuchi (traditsіyno) ratsіonalnі ochіkuvannya for agregovanoї Offers in (14.10), E otrimuєmo scho s urahuvannyam (14.13) naykraschim peredbachennyam for vipadkovoї quantities yt will be the values potentsіynogo virobnitstva, tobto Got Location:

(14.15)

З (14.15) vyplivaє, scho of the real vibrobitvtva's obtjazheni vplyivom deprisov zhivnіshnyh, suto vypadkovyh, and that and weakly prognozovanyh vpleivіv.

Otzhe, makroekonomіchna polіtika Je "neutral" in obumovlenomu rozumіnnі, tobto not Mauger zmenshiti rozhodzhennya mіzh factuality i potentsіynim rіvnyami virobnitstva, timchasom yak ostannіy in rinkovіy ekonomіtsі viznachaєtsya chinnikami Offers. More than that, the shouts of kidnapping peredabchennya (prognosis) - vypadkovymi and nezalezhnimi, vtruchannia power to strengthen the magnitude of the release of actual and potential vibrobitvva.

Thus, the fiscal and monetary policy should not be stabilized, but a destabilizing bureaucrat, and the state should not become economical, but rather change it. Zvichayno, the argument of R. Lukas є znachno vitonchenіshuyu і folding, ales ії сутність it is transferred to finish accurately.

Significantly, but the writings about the neutrality of the macroeconomic polity - we are justified by the Lisha for informing us of the cruelty of the hypotheses of the prognostic proposals and the course of the course. Poses vikonuyutsya, napriklad, if the functions (14.10) do not lie in the norms vidsochka, and monetary (chi fiskalna) polity will be deprived on the basis of the information shchodo pogodnіh rіshen. Yaksho zmіniti hocha b one zdanyh minds, then macroeconomic polity, prinaimny in korotkoterminovomu periodi, cope vpliv on real riven vibrobitvva.