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Model of economics - Vіtlіnsky V.V.

14.4. Macroeconomic policy and “criticism of Lucas”

Yak Bulo is shown in the forefront of materials, a macroeconomic system that responds to the winter of the future (exogenous), more often than the model of the macroeconomic, that is, to the adoption of the macroeconomic policy. The basic structural parameters of the macroeconomic model (system) were assumed to be obscured by the invariant standard types of the political ones. As long as the macroeconomic policy is not worse than the song course, and the first mode is to improve the economy of the short pre-string periods, then the system parameters (14.1) may not be less than the invariant eco-political mode.

Macroeconomic policy is invaded by passive (neutral), but it’s not at all overpowering at the macroeconomic situation, view, without approaching the maximum potential through the budget, the importance of budget deficit, unemployment, and more.

Interest in the problem of “neutrality” of macroeconomic policies, manifestations of praise for the classics, having eliminated the needful pulse of the publication by R. Lucas, the result of the previous macroeconomic opportunities. Yogo pіdkhіd ґruntє to be on vikoristannі special functions of aggregated propositions, which (in the logarithms) is written as follows:

(14.10)

de yt is the flow of production at the time t ; - Riven of potency-grapevine virobnitstva; pt - current prices at time t ; - ochkuvannya schodo rivnya price at the time hour t , rimanі on pіdstavі information, available at the time ( t - 1); - vipadkovі zburennya aggregately aggregated propositions, which are invariably independent from the clock, normally distributed with zero average and reduced dispersion.

In the model of Lucas, the real market is invaded more effectively in the case of rozumіnnі, whose participants are very quick to use information, they respond to yak. Ochukuvannya (spodіvannya) economic agents on an effective market

(14.11)

є rational, so that, in principle, they are formed in such a way, as if they are averaged in a vipad process:

(14.12)

de E - operator of rational practices (Ochivan); W t - 1 - informational number, which is available to violinists at the time of hour ( t - 1), if the stench form their own eyes; et - vipadkova uncorrelated bending error, which is smaller than the average dispersion.

Dana rivniannya sterdzhuє, scho factual prices are dabbling along with their own rational transmission of suto vipadkovoh inferior, scho mano zero mean and skinchennu dispersion. Such a reserve is limited to the actual price, for the effective price, the price is absolutely ruble, the priority is always paid. We can, if we appreciate the responsiveness to the new information, which is practically affordable to all participants in the market. The participants, with such a rank, amused with the possibility of vikoristovuvati their timochovі іinformatsіynі overtaking with the method of deceiving the arbitration move. Of course, the hypothesis of symmetric information on the right є above the hard and practical, as a rule, can’t cope. The previous rink with asymmetric information є is super-relevant. Three American students for such an achievement rejected the Nobel Prize for 2001 at the Galician Economy. The model of asymmetric markets is relevant and relevant.

For the rational ochkuvan, the fragments are new, the absolutely exact transmission is basically unfeasible, but I have to tell you (14.12), the rational transfer of the price (chi inflate) at the moment t can, but, the moment is: ()

(14.13)

yak can be matrimonized, allowed more than one hypothesis, numbered in both parts of the rivnyannya (14.12), fragments

For the hypothesis of rational ochuquan, the value of the moment at the hour of the last hour of the vipadkovoy blukannya:

(14.14)

Kotra at the given time formally є model of dynamics dynamics for discrete vipadkovyh processes.

The hypothesis of rational ochikuvan, which is to take into account the understanding of an effective market, take as a basis ochuvanny low (bagatokh) is of good kind to informed agents, and the operator of racial ochinuk is not more than that, just like math. To our thought, it is more adequate in situations with an asymmetric distribution of the value of the vipadka value, as well as an informed agent market, you can take away the fashion of median. In the case of higher incidents, the size can be butorily correlated to the world of skinny.

Strictly to the market with asymmetric distribution of information, significant (sutty) lags and the intersection of the commodity market, especially the market of praxis, - the performance of the adequacy of the rational accuracy is not so great. Here є a great simpler for the farther science achievements, yak on the conceptual, so on the model (instrumental) rivals.

Umov (14.6) to be shy of the supramundane, and with a blanket and unbroken all the autoregressive circuits, form the form of the ocular, the secrecy of the inflation. However Economy perehіdnogo perіodu, transformatsіynoї Economy, if zsuvi Je suttєvimi, if vagomіst poperednoї іstorії rіzko znizhuєtsya, Especially in korotkostrokovomu perіodі vnaslіdok suttєvih (chi Fundamental) Change log sotsіalno-polіtichnogo character metodologіya ratsіonalnih ochіkuvan of urahuvannyam riziku Je Especially relevant, while for naukovtsіv - adaptable. T. Sargent is writing, for example, on the basis of rational ochuvannya, power for the transformation of the economy.

Confirmation of the essence of the "neutrality" of macroeconomic policies with the rationalization of the rational ochikuvan can be demonstrated by such an order. I will compute (traditionally) rational points for aggregated propositions in (14.10), we will explicitly, and with urachuvannies (14.13), as well as the most precise transmission values, will be the value of the potential ratio:

(14.15)

З (14.15) it’s hot, the oaths of a real virobnitz are tightly filled with too much money, it’s very bad, and that’s a weak forecast.

From now on, macroeconomic policies є “neutral” in a deliberate rosum, so that we cannot reduce the cost of the actual and potential equalities of the viro, and at the same time remain at the forefront of the economy. Moreover, fragments of the distortion of the prediction (prediction) ип vipadkovymi nezalezhnymi, then the hand of the power is happier to force the magnitude of the discrepancy of the actual and potential virobnitzstva.

Thus, fiscal and monetary policy is not a stable official, but a destabilizing official, and the power to enter the economy does not expand, but change. It’s soundly, the arguments of R. Lucas но significantly vitonichny and folding, but the aliens dayniness is transferred to finish precisely.

It is worth noting that shawns about the neutrality of macroeconomic policies ли are justifiably deprived of the need to fill in harsh hypotheses of a well-predicted political course and order. It’s okay to stare, for example, if it’s fun (14.10) not to fall into the norm of movement, but the monetary (financial) policy will be less expensive at the latest information. As a matter of fact, I would like to have one mind, then it’s macroeconomic policy, take a short term period, I can help you to get into the real world of virology.