the main Finance Commodity Innovation Policy - Kardash V. Ya., Pavlenko І. BUT.

Commodity Innovation Policy - Kardash V. Ya., Pavlenko І. BUT.

7.2. Prognostic method

Folklore ідеї new product - the dream of creative activity of people. Creative work in іndivіduuma in whether-yakіy spheri і overlap in succession, just like in a vodom von ponad 2000 rokіv і ninі maє name scientific method. The essence of the yogos is explained above by explaining the great antiquity philosopher Aristotel (p. 384-322 BC). Note that you can use the scientific method for the discretionary cycle of the cycle and the non-interrupted marketing strategy to give them the same logic (Table 31).

Table 31

ETAPI SCIENTIFIC METHOD

This table has been redefined by us at the three-day marketing for marketing, science and science. All the products of the food industry are based on the vicarious methods of science and technology, to learn the methods of the theoretical and empirical development.

Swinging in a new product, often a vicarist method of prediction, beyond which it is necessary to predict the development of a single product, as well as the mind of a new virobnitza that is in harmony.

The forecast є a vision of a science project, like a verachov є a manifest cause-and-effect link is predicted by other factors, objects, shows. Naukovo obruntovane sudzhennya schoda mozhlivogo become a product in May and that alternative directly to the term of the development of the site by the same method of generation of new products. Methods of prediction are based on factual and expert (Fig. 63).

Fig. 63. Classification of forecasting methods

Before the factual (formal) methods to follow:

statistical methods (prediction extrapolation, regression analysis);

methods of analogy (mathematical, historical);

Vipredzhalny methods (analysis of dynamic science-technical information, the method of prediction of technical technology).

Ci methods are based on the victorious web of abbreviated information about the plots, just the next minute. The factual information of the material is fixed on be-worn noses.

Statistical methods include predictive extrapolation and regression analysis. The stench is based on the desperate mathematical apparatus for the Victorian functions for the analogical I will describe the behavior of the subject, which is different. Forecast of extrapolation of transmission by aproximation of polynomials, extrapolation of standard functions, extrapolarization of discounting information, extrapolation of secondary crimson [7]. Usi tsi metod and it is straightened on the prospect of the most popular types of functions, as much as possible to the real development of the process, which is analogous. Method of registration of the analysts of the vicaristic autoregression models, models, models, regressions. Headaches for the sake of statistical analysis of the statistics in the forecast forecasting for people from other countries who were registered for extrapolation of the predicted ones.

Widely zasosovuyutsya for new generation ідей tako і factographic methods and analogues. H tsієyu method of vikoristovuyut mathematical and historical analogs. Before the first lay economical models and interim analogues. Naichіtsya koristuyutsya yak nayprostіshimi models of economic prediction. Historical counterparts associated with interventions (with a chusean orchestra). For example, the model of the development of similar products of similar products and those promoted by the deputy directories was prompted for an analogue of the economic affairs.

Viperedzhalnі_ methods and pov'yazanі with an analysis of the science-technical information and the forecasts of the development of technology. It is promoted to the victorious authorities of the scientific and technical information and the real estate of the scientific and technical doyagnen without interruption in the virobnitstv. For example, the patent method for predicting the transfer of information for the vocal criterion system of principle new technologies and dynamic dynamics. Publіkatsіyny method for predicting the base on the value of the dynamic and the dynamic of public education. Podnibny to nyogo tako і citation-index index prediction method, which is based on analіzі dinamіki tsituvnya avtor_v rіznih publikatsіy stoosovno problems povyazanih zvvitkom vіdpov_dnogo product. Inkashe kaasuchi, vipredzhalzhalnі metod prognozvuvnya pebachayat naavnіst tіsnogo link'yazku mіzh dinamіkoyu naukovo-tehnіchno Іnformatsіі ta naukovo-tekhnichnymi development. The main information sources for the front-line methods of forecasting authors, holidays, licenses, commercial views (catalogs, prospectuses, commercials).

Experts (intuitive) methods of breeding camcorders for the generation of high visibility standards. On the Competency of Competence and Intuition, to take as a headway factor on the prospects for the development of this type of product. Investigative methods of expert marketing methods can be explained with the help of effective support for the development of tasks that are irrelevant or superspecific information. Viktoristannya ekspertnyh metodіv at marketing є is sufficiently wide, and the search, which is given to the expert, will go to two classes: organoleptic and rosum. For the first-time viscous (the taste of food products, the smell of perfume, the use of coristo ry tools), the expert cortex of the organs of sensation. Rozumov zavdannya over the bumper stochuyastsya vznachennya koufіtsієntіv vagamostі (significant), complex sotnok toshcho. Zrozumіlo, scho chitkoi mezhі mіzh tsimi klasami nemak, ale pidkhodi to them є rezhim them і often lie behind the special circumstances of the examiners. Yak vіdomo, term "expert" (interd. Lat. "Dosvidcheniy") call fakhіvtsya in the field of science, technology, management, marketing and other spheres of activity, which will be available for you to develop special food, you will need special food, you will need special food, which will be available for you to develop special food, you will need special food, you will need special food for you to get special food for you, you will need to get special food for you, who will get to pay for food, you will need to get special food for you. However, it’s worth it that you know the knowledge of the expert's expert with the importance of the role of the intuition. At first glance, you can see how illogical are you in marketing management for accepting strategic solutions for products that are new and informative and innovative - tsikh dzherel, you can easily find one. Not only that, but not only, but not one of them, but one of the craftsmen, one of the craftsmen, and one of the drawl To the very best in innovative marketing, it is possible to have a special way of accepting a solution, if you don't like information, it is not suitable for normal situations of strategic decision. Ostanovnogo znakomnu                             By a positive attitude of the expert methods, as well, you can understand the best practices of the development of the project, because of the factual methods of finding out on the Maybut retrospective trend. Tom, the expert in the field ). For shifts of negative to sub-activity, the requirements of requirements of experts for the rules of acceptance are important.

Deposit ad principles of expert assessment methods and prediction of classify yak:

- indivisible expert assessments (direct opituvannya, extramural opituvannya);

- Collective expert assessments, who co-ordinate the collective generation of ideas (“fines” in the intellectual experiment, “independent” in the experiments in experiment).

Otzhe, tsi metoi base on the study of the danich vidrohody perspective rozvitku ob'єkta otrimanih for the results of special full-time, external students, group and separate personal, personified and anonymous personal examiners. Іndivіdualnі ekspertnі otsіnki dabachayut ikristannya Іnformatsіі for the results of one experiment. The depth of order that yak was spent on the income, so the situation is cleverly rooted in ways that are directly and anonymously profitable. Before the first, intercourse і method of psycho-interchangeable generation, and to others - an analytical definitive dual assessment (additional note), a scenario method, a morphological analogue and so on.

However, using the expert method without regard to each other’s marks and scrutiny of such minds:

Expert assessment is required to carry out even more, if there is no wetting of vicarious methods;

robots of the expert group, after the official official of the negative, will pour into the panel of the experts: hangouts of the experts;

food, which should be placed in front of experts, cannot be an alternative tlumachen;

The experts are sufficiently competent in the nutrition of the problem;

The competitive exam is optimal;

Interviews examiners may be unequivocal і заб bezpechuvati you can match your mathematical processing and interpretation.

The important second-hand efficiency of the expert method is the yakisny warehouse of the group. An expert who is his own “viral instrument,” as well as the rest, is guilty of responding to the authorities and to the accuracy of the result. It is also necessary to learn about the learning and understanding of the structure of experts. At the final stage of the formation of the expert group, it is necessary to conduct a test test, self-assessment and self-assessment of the experts, get to know the analysis of the above-mentioned and rational analysis. Testing the transfer of experts by experts who are interested in those who are interested in singing the scale of the scale, so that you can grab your knowledge and professional competence. Self-examinations are carried out according to the skin of the skin for special nutritional questionnaires (there is an hour for everyone). Also, the test of self-defense is a self-esteem by experts of your professional knowledge and skills at balls. So itself is held and mutual expertise. Yakshche є форма про про про про про про про про про про Я Я Я Such a podhіd to vіdboru examiners need, shchapravda, nagromazhennya and analizu great obyagu іnformatsіі, ale yes mozhniv_st postoyno voskosalyuvati yakіsny warehouse expert groups.

For the formation of the expert group, the great respect for the need to come together is also a joint venture. The purpose of the demonstration is characterized by the so-called zim_shenchenuyu (chi nezmіschenoyuyu) center of the dispersion of the vіdlіku. For the first time at the stage of the formation of the expert group, the tests are carried out on a mathematic basis of results. Unless it is a victoristic campaign, which has been buried deeply in terms of the scale of the order, in order to determine the same rank. For the scale of the order of the name of the ranking range. In tsyomu times for the peace of the uzgodzhenostі dumok ekspertіv to take the so-called co-fiction і concordance ії (W):

de S - suma squares viddhilen sumi rang_v of the skin area examination by the middle arithmetic of all ranks;

n - experts;

m - klіkіst ob'єktіv expert.

The deposit between the localities of the Doumoc experts and the co-author of the concordats can be typed in the value 0 (the marriage of the year) to 1 (the same one). Yak butt rozglyanmo pivne uzgozhenosti dumok p'yati ekspertіv schtoho significant znavyu okremyh chinnikіv commerce riziku rinkovy success uhnovatsіynnogo product. The results of this event and the range put in the table. 32.

Table 32

VIKH_DNI DANI FOR VIZNAChENNYA KOEFІTSІЄNTA CONCORDACIIЇ

25

Vihodyachi іz Dani table. 31 counted:

1) the sum of the squares of the square S = 630;

2) the code of concordance W = 0.9.

Otzhe, conducted rosrahunki give zmogu Vishnovuvati, scho вveni uzzhenzhenost dumok members of the group of experts є dostnіm.

If you are a scandalous person, you’ll be able to take part in expert examinations for a group of people. Tsomu spriyaє tako poperednya p_dgotovka examiners, yak peredachaі specialіnalny trenіng z obov'kovkovim obgovorennyam results_v that pardons. In razі, if mozhlyvosti for podgotovnyo podgotovki experts examining marriage, zasosovuyutsya іnші methods.

W-pomіzh them nachastіche koristuyutsya "Delphi method" from the Kilkoma tours opituvannya. You can base on the direction of the local teams of the expert group from the non-recurring anonymous review and training for the results of the tour. Tse dahn mozhlіv_st ekspertam doodatkovo obruntuvati svoi sotninki in the offensive turi. The metaphor of the “delphic method” is predicted by the science of the term of the living room of the podnost on the dumok of the experts from tsogo food. The Delphi Method was broken down in 1964 fahіvtsyami Amerikansko і ірми "Rend-Corporation" G. Gordon and O. Helmer і named for the honor of the Greek Mista Delfi, once orami oracles. In zagalnom viglyadі tsei transmission method:

staging of additional special questionnaires of serie nutrition, in view of the need to characterize the subject;

bagatory procedure of the procedure;

Anonymously informed about the results of the previous tour of all fahіvtsіv-experts;

otrimannya v_d ekspertіv, dumki yaky meaningfully vіdrіznyayutsya vіd dumok bіlshostі, explanation of the reasons for such vіdkhilen;

The last (inter-tour to tour) statistical processing of inter-emptive experts for the determination of the average statistical characteristics.

Expert review in three-person etipi, with the first tour questionnaire, order іz іnformatsієyu about problems, put them in charge of them.

In the questionnaires of another round, form the results of statistical processing of the results of the survey, which is the name of the term of the singing subcategory (for example, show medical preparations of absolute condition for the syndrome of immune disorder - SNI). Fulfill the results of another tour to bring to the examiners at the third tour, if їm nadaєatsya can go anyway, get to the bolshost, or argue yourself with your okremu dumka. For the necessity of the interactive process, it is possible to promote (quarters, events and advances). It is not only that the middle-aged quarters of the two rest of the tour can not be set in the size of the bead, but that it doesn’t matter.

The main characteristics of the results of the results are mathematically occluded (at the most basic level - the middle value), which is the dispersion (characteristic of the characteristic) of the ad rimanichi of the individual, and also the value of quartiles. Usi tsi greats smothering the term of the term (the most important part) Maybutton podії. Between apartments - two values, just like that. The stench is assigned a range, in a jakom, 50% of the votes are collectively determined by experts. This will be the result of a better choice of forecast terms and conditions of implementation of a new product. Dumki інших offers of 50% of experts who understand the situation: 25% of the votes are envisaged in the range of 25% and lower for the lower term. In the offensive tour of the field, experts are confined between apartments and proponents, but they did not use them in the middle 50% range, aboard their own, or dated about their mirkuvan. Ci results that obyruntuvnya vinyatsya on offensive tour. Otzhe, characteristic signs of the "Delphi method" є:

анонімність: експерти не зустрічаються один з одним, щоб уникнути емоційного та професійного взаємовпливу;

багатоетапність: після кожного туру опитування всі експерти знайомляться з думками кожного з них і за необхідності подають письмові мотивування свого погляду. Погоджуючись або не погоджуючись з думками своїх колег, вони можуть переглядати власні погляди;

контроль: після кожного туру перевіряється узгодженість думок експертів, допоки варіювання окремих думок не досягне встановленої межі.

Головним недоліком цього методу є організаційна складність та тривалість проведення багаторівневого опитування. Але його застосування особливо корисне за розв'язування стратегічних питань продуктової інновації, пов'язаних зі значними інвестиціями та новітніми розробленнями у сфері фундаментальних наук [7].

Таким чином, фактографічні методи дають змогу використовувати об'єктивні дані ретроспективного характеру, оцінювати перспективу і моделювати весь процес розвитку об'єкта. Їх використання передбачає поширення тенденцій розвитку об'єкта на весь період прогнозування, однак вони не завжди спроможні взяти до уваги можливість якісних стрибків у русі того чи того явища в майбутньому. Натомість експертні методи уможливлюють аналіз перспективи розвитку явища за браком його попередньої історії, прогнозування якісних змін у процесі розвитку об'єкта. Головним їхнім недоліком є складність проведення опитувань і наступної обробки отриманих даних, а також неможливість цілком уникнути суб'єктивних оцінок.