home Finance Groshі that credit - Savluk M.І.

Groshі that credit - Savluk M.І.

5.5. OSOBLIVOSTІ ІNFLYATSІЇ In UKRAЇNІ

Got іnflyatsії problem for Ukraine is not stіlki theoreticity, skіlki Sotho practicality value. Already in 1991, p. - Rotsі progoloshennya rate on nezalezhnіst - up Ukraine ohopila gliboka іnflyatsіya (390% of the Year), s yakoї Won residually not viyshla i 2000 p. Ukraїnska dіysnіst gave Bhagat іnflyatsіyny materіal on bazі yakogo mozhna perevіriti that utochniti rozglyanutі vische teoretichnі PROVISIONS schodo sutnostі, forms have shown that the reasons naslіdkіv іnflyatsії and takozh viyaviti osoblivostі perebіgu іnflyatsіynogo processes in our minds spetsifіchnih.

Perche nіzh rozglyanuti osoblivostі іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі, slіd viznachiti osnovnі spetsifіchnі RISS ekonomіchnogo i sotsіalnogo Zhittya suspіlstva Tsey perіod. Naybіlsh zagalnoyu, spetsifіchnoyu risoyu tsogo perіodu in Ukraїnі Yea those scho LUVs vіn perehіdnim, if rinkovі methodological th Elements tіsno pereplіtalisya s command admіnіstrativnimi not tіlki in ekonomіchnomu zhittі and minutes from svіdomostі tvortsіv ekonomіchnoї polіtiki. Bіlsh specifically spetsifіku tsogo perіodu mozhna zvesti up

this:

- UKRAINE dіstala in spadok od CPCP visokozatratnu, neefektivnu, visokomonopolіzovanu, s nerinkovoyu structure (nadmіrno temple Pete vagoyu vazhkoї promislovostі) ekonomіku, perevazhna Chastina yakoї not spromozhna Bula pratsyuvati in ambushes samofіnansuvannya i potrebuvala budget dotuvannya scho provokuvalo zrostannya defіtsitu budget;

- S with such a time - іnflyatsіyne orієntovanoyu - ekonomіkoyu UKRAINE dіstala in spadok i great "іnflyatsіyny navіs" in viglyadі 117.0 billion of rubles.. vkladіv population in the banks in nasampered Savings, perevazhna Chastina yakih Bula vimushenoyu, sprichinenoyu defіtsitnіstyu wide assortment spozhivchih tovarіv, i Ready "zgvintiti" tsіni at pershіy sprobі їh lіberalіzatsії;

- UKRAINE not rozrobila chіtkoї, rozmіchenoї in chasі prog kardinalnoї rinkovoї transformatsії Economy that іnshih areas suspіlstva and spent svoї reform skorіshe Way "sprob i pomilok" for yakogo "sprobi" zvodilisya perevazhno to pіdtrimki whether yakoyu tsіnoyu "afloat" old virobnichogo potentsіalu and "pomilki" - to neymovіrnogo rozduvannya budgetary vitrat on tsі tsіlі. Chim dovshe utrimuvalas such situatsіya in ekonomіtsі, team mogutnіshim generator іnflyatsії won Stavan.

On tsomu fonі zrostannya tsіn in Nabeul Ukraїnі temple tempіv i trivaє neupinno mayzhe 10 rokіv, tobto Got OAO All Find our klasychnoji іnflyatsії, about scho svіdchat danі, navedenі Table. 5.1.

small. 40

W hover danih seen scho in 1992-1993 pp. іnflyatsіya in Ukraїnі dosyagla gshervisokogo rіvnya (2100.0% 10256.0% that vіdpovіdno), scho Yea naybіlsh vrazhayuchoyu osoblivіstyu іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі. Takoї visokoї іnflyatsії not conceited zhodna s kraїn for peaceful minds. So, Russie in Pershi Rocky perehіdnogo perіodu nayvischoyu іnflyatsіya bula in 1992 p. - 2609.0%, scho mayzhe in 4 Razi nizhche, nіzh in Ukraїnі in 1993 p. In Bіlorusі nayvischa іnflyatsіya Tsey perіod bula in 1994 p. - 2321%, scho at once 4.4 nizhche, nіzh in Ukraїnі in 1993 p. Sered kraїn far zarubіzhzhya Suchasnyj

"Chempіonami 's іnflyatsії vvazhayutsya Argentina, Peru, Zaїr that іn. Prote zhodna them Pokey scho s not perevischila "record" Ukraine 1993 p. Argentina nayvischu іnflyatsіyu small district in 1989. - 3389.6%, Peru, in 1990, p. - 7481.6% in 1992 Zaїr p. - 3860%. Taku Nadto temple gіperіnflyatsіyu in Ukraїnі in 1991-1993 pp. mozhna poyasniti EYAD GROUP reasons:

1) collapse "іnflyatsіynogo navіsu" Obsession With Ukraine in spadok s Radyans'ka chasіv unaslіdok lіberalіzatsії tsіn in 1991-1992 pp., Scho sprovokuvalo zrostannya platospromozhnogo popitu i tsіn for Tsey perіod bіlshe nіzh in 2 Razi. Pid vplivom tsogo chinnika rozdrіbnі tsіni in 1991-1992 pp. zrostali uniquely shvidshe, nіzh zrostala penny masa - 1.6 1.9 i never vіdpovіdno. Tsei RPPOs CCB sprovokovany not tіlki directly transformatsієyu vimushenih zaoschadzhen in platospromozhny popit and second generuvannyam tsієyu transformatsієyu іnflyatsіynih ochіkuvan that priskorennyam shvidkostі pennies, Especially in 1992 p., If oderzhanі income mainly negayno vitrachalisya i kupuvalisya Product not stіlki to stream spozhivannya, skіlki for zberіgannya have to chislі maybutnogo for resale. About Tse svіdchit Nadzvychaina sytuatsia Visoka Pete Wagga "potochnoї kasi" (M1) in zagalnіy masі pennies from 1992 p. - 82%. Bіlsh temple rіvnya not Bulo in zhodnomu іnshomu rotsі tsogo perіodu;

2) Nadto lіberalnoyu monetary polіtikoyu, yak Uryadov carried out is the central bank of Ukraine. Dosit skazati, scho in 1991 p. defіtsit sovereign budget becomes 14% od GDP in 1992 p. vіn zrіs dvіchі i have become 29% od GDP. Bodies monetarnoї polіtiki, nasampered NBU without Especially suprotivu monetizuvali Tsey velichezny defіtsit Shlyakhov direct budgetary kredituvannya require oskіlki nіyakі INSHI dzherela koshtіv at Ti Rocky boule slit for Demba unavailable. Well Pіti on skorochennya budgetary vitrat zaradi rehabilitation pennies in vladnih structures not vistachilo polіtichnoї Volya ni, ni glibokogo rozumіnnya seryoznoї zagrozi maybutnomu Ukraine od gіpervisokoї іnflyatsії. Bіlshe that Uryadov, President of the Verkhovna Rada that poperemіnne priymali protyagom 1992-1993 pp. dodatkovі rіshennya schodo іstotnogo pіdvischennya tsіn is the Venue of unplanned fіnansovih vitrat, motivuyuchi їh GOSTR ekonomіchnoyu chi sotsіalnoyu neobhіdnіstyu. Pov'yazanі s CIM dodatkovі require a penny dogіdlive zadovolnyalisya NBU for rakhunok naroschuvannya emіsії pennies (in formі so zvanoї kreditnoї emіsії). NBU, in sutі, povnіstyu vtrativ in tsі Rocky status samostіynogo, Square Body monetarnoї polіtiki i sluhnyano escorting іnflyatsіynu polіtiku scho diktuvalasya vladnimi structures perevazhno s polіtichnih mіrkuvan.

Other osoblivіstyu Іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі Bula chіtka, unambiguous reaktsіya dinamіki tsіn on uzhorstochennya monetarnoї polіtiki, pereorієntatsіyu її on antiіnflyatsіynu tsіl s Druha half of 1993 p. Already in 1994, p. іnflyatsії pace znizivsya porіvnyano z 1993 r. at 20.4 once. Leaning over the prophets Vier Tempi zrostannya tsіn uniquely vіdstali od tempіv zrostannya masi pennies (M3), scho іstotno pіdvischilo real significance of seigniorage that yogo role in polіpshennі will Reigning fіnansіv positively vplinulo on real zabezpechennya Economy masoyu penny. Tse mozhna poyasniti tim, scho ekonomіchnі sub'єkti, peredusіm population dressing іrili Creator novoї monetarnoї polіtiki, "prignіtili" svoї іnflyatsіynі ochіkuvannya scho sprichinilo upovіlnennya obіgu pennies.

Thirdly osoblivіstyu іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі Bulo those scho forsovane naroschuvannya masi pennies that it pov'yazane s slit bіlshe zrostannya rіvnya tsіn not tіlki not spriyali ekonomіchnomu zrostannyu and navpaki, pogliblyuvali ekonomіchny recession that zrostannya bezrobіttya. Chim Dali novі emіsіynі hvilі vіdshtovhuvali curve popitu (div. Fig. 5.2) i right up, team Dali vlіvo i zmіschuvalasya upward curve Offers i zrostav rіven tsіn. About Tse krasnomovno svіdchat danі about Tempi padіnnya real GDP perіod rozkruchuvannya gіperіnflyatsії: from 1991 r. - 8.7%, at 1992 p. - 9.9%, at 1993 p. - 14.2%, in 1994 p. - 23.0%.

Urahovuyuchi Pevnyi hours lag mіzh zrostannyam masi pennies that іnflyatsії i zmіnoyu situatsії in realnіy ekonomіtsі, slіd viznati scho naybіlshe padіnnya obsyagu GDP in 1994 p. Je naslіdkom nayvischoї іnflyatsії in 1993 p.

The I pіslya deprivation of yak іnflyatsіyny processes at 1994 p. CCB "perelamany" zavdyaki pereorієntatsії monetarnoї polіtiki i pіshov on the decline, Pocha postupovo zmenshuvatisya i Tempi padіnnya GDP: s 12.2% in 1995 p. in 1997 to 3 p. i 0.4% in 1999 p.

The fourth osoblivіst іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі polyagaє in fact scho dosit uspіshne priborkannya іnflyatsії in 1996 p. i vivedennya її on priynyatny rіven navіt s pozitsіy rozvinutih kraїn (10.1% in 1997, 20% in 1998.) not so long ago gave ochіkuvanogo pozhvavlennya virobnitstva, yak prodovzhuvalo skorochuvatisya (-10.0% in 1996 p .; 3, 0% at 1997 p.). W look around to tsі obstavini our practice is clearly not in the canonical vpisuvalasya monetaristskogo traktuvannya іnflyatsіynogo processes scho gave privіd deyakim ekonomіstam stverdzhuvati, scho in Ukraїnі monetaristskі kontseptsії not vipravdalisya and zhorstka monetary polіtika NBU spratsyuvala. Prote right not monetarnіy teorії chi polіtitsі. Korіnnya tsogo yavischa slіd shukati in strukturі ukraїnskoї Economy, yak i pіslya transition to antiіnflyatsіynoї polіtiki zalishilasya with such a mayzhe, yakoyu bula in 1990-1991 pp., Tobto no adequate rinkovim mehanіzmam not chutlivoyu to quiet stimulyuyuchih іmpulsіv, SSMSC podayutsya on channels novoї monetarnoї polіtiki . Such nevіdpovіdnіst mіzh zastarіlim yakіsnim pitched structuring Economy th antiіnflyatsіynoyu monetary polіtikoyu zumovlena Nadto povіlnimi rinkovih pace of reforms in Ukraїnі.

P'yata osoblivіst manifested itself on stadії Venue of antiіnflyatsіynoї polіtiki i polyagaє in fact, scho minds in hronіchnogo defіtsitu sovereign budget i Wkra povіlnih tempіv rinkovoї restrukturizatsії virobnitstva rіzko pogasiti іnflyatsіyu not vdaєtsya. Already bіlsh yak shіst rokіv organic sovereign upravlіnnya spovіduyut antiіnflyatsіynu polіtiku and rіven іnflyatsії tіlki once (in 1997 r.) Znizivsya to 10% for the Year, and in the prophets INSHI becomes 20.0 i bіlshe vіdsotkіv. Slіd zvernuti uwagi on two aspects tsogo yavischa.

W one side, visokі Tempi іnflyatsії pіslya 1994 p. Je svіdchennyam of Ukraine scho ekonomіka all slit zalishaєtsya visokozatra-tnoyu, maloefektivnoyu i potrebuє іstotnoї fіnansovoї pіdtrimki s side powers, scho neminuche shtovhaє up popit i tsіni on commodity Rink. A іnshogo s side, such sider require Economy in іnflyatsіynіy pіdtrimtsі s side powers svіdchit about nespromozhnіst іsnuyuchogo virobnichogo potentsіalu to funktsіonuvannya on rinkovih ambushes samofіnansuvannya i vimagaє dodatkovih fіnansovih zzovnі infusion. Tse poyasnyuєtsya digit zastarіlіstyu main kapіtalu, vtratoyu vnaslіdok gіperіnflyatsії obіgovogo kapіtalu that neadekvatnіstyu rinkovim minds samoї structuring virobnitstva.

Digit Chastina great i serednіh of companies all have slit zalishaєtsya derzhavnіy vlasnostі i pratsyuє tіlki for pryamoї chi oposeredkovanoї (podatkovі pіlgi toscho) fіnansovoї pіdtrimki powers. A Ti, scho takoї pіdtrimki not oderzhuyut, yak usually zupinyayut virobnitstvo. Not nabagato maintained upstream encampment on privatizovanih i great i serednіh pіdpriєmstvah. Bіlshіst іz them spromozhnі samostіyno profіnansuvati restrukturizatsіyu virobnitstva stosovno rinkovih vimog i TER chekayut Relief od powers chi Dovgy shukayut іnozemnih іnvestorіv. For those of companies vsіh antiіnflyatsіyna polіtika Wkra not Bazhana pozbavlyaє їh ostannoї of Hope on zovnіshnyu fіnansovu pіdtrimku. Єdinoyu Form gospodaryuvannya, yak could b Shvydko pristosuvatisya to drain nizkoї іnflyatsії, Je mala i serednє pіdpriєmnitstvo, organіzovane on Private i Collective ambushes. Digit prosharok tsogo pіdpriєmnitstva uniquely rozshiriv bi popit on groshі scho allowed b іstotno pіdvischiti monetizatsіyu Economy, nakopichiti dostatnіy fіnansovy kapіtal vseredinі Kraina for rakhunok yakogo mozhna Bulo b neіnflyatsіynim Shlyakhov profіnansuvati restrukturizatsіyu іsnuyuchih great i serednіh of companies. At sorry pіslya 1993 p. rozvitok small i serednogo pіdpriєmnitstva in Ukraїnі CCB povnіstyu zablokovany. Yak naslіdok, Ukraine pіslya transition to antiіnflyatsіynoї polіtiki potrapila in Smuga zatyazhnoї stagflyatsії, if trivale zrostannya tsіn vіdbuvaєtsya on fonі hronіchnogo skorochennya virobnitstva GDP.

Bezposeredno s poperednoyu osoblivіstyu іnflyatsії in Ukraїnі pov'yazana slit one - rozvitok on fonі hronіchnoї іnflyatsії glibokoї Creasy neplatezhіv. Vzaєmna zaborgovanіst gospodaryuyuchih sub'єktіv dosyagla to 2000 p. rozmіru scho perevischuє rіchny obsyag GDP. Postіyno zrostayut neplatezhі sovereign budget to establish that pratsіvnikam byudzhetnoї sphere zaborgovanіst the budget platnikіv podatkіv toscho. Tse mozhna poyasniti tim, scho uzhorsto-chennya monetarnoї polіtiki not suprovodzhuvalosya vіdpovіdnimi zmіnami in sferі realnoї Economy that byudzhetnіy sferі: znizhennyam vitrat virobnitstva i zbitkovostі, pіdvischennyam platezhіv to the budget, budgetary skorochennyam vitrat i defіtsitu toscho.

Pіdvodyachi pіdsumok, slіd zaznachiti scho perebіg іnflyatsіynogo processes in Ukraїnі in the 90 Ti Rocky in tsіlomu vіdpovіdaє skhemі scho viznachaєtsya monetaristskim traktuvannyam sutnostі that іnflyatsії reasons. Together s note in іnflyatsіynomu protsesі in Ukraїnі toil Location i pomіtnі vіdmіnnostі od monetaristskoї scheme zumovlenі perehіdnim character nashoї Economy Especially that processes її rinkovoї transformatsії. Tsі vіdmіnnostі mozhna sformulyuvati as follows:

1) nadmіrne zatyaguvannya іnflyatsіynogo processes on dosit temple rіvnі (blizko 20% over Year) without vіdchutnogo stimulyuyuchogo vplivu on ekonomіchne zrostannya, vnaslіdok chogo іnflyatsіya Nabeul FORMS stagflyatsії;

2) antiіnflyatsіyna Derzhavna polіtika suprovodzhuєtsya pogliblennyam platіzhnoї crisis, yak peretvoryuєtsya in samostіyny chinnik ruynіvnogo vplivu on the I ekonomіku primushuє organic monetarnoї polіtiki systematically vnositi in neї vіdpovіdnі korektivi, scho robit antiіnflyatsіynu polіtiku nedostatno poslіdovnoyu that efektivnosti.