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|home Finance A penny is a loan - Savluk M.I.|
A penny is a loan - Savluk M.I.
The problem of inflation for Ukraine is not theoretical in theory, skill is practically more significant. Already in 1991 p. - the growth of the rate towards independence - Ukraine was covered by the gliboka inflation (390% for the river), although it didn’t leave any other time in 2000. The Ukrainian economy has given a bagaty of inflated material, on the basis of which it is possible to convert and clarify the theory of the present day, I will show the forms, the reasons for this because of the special interest.
First, look at the particularities of the inflationary process in Ukraine, see the main specifics of the economic and social life of suspension in the whole period. The most irrelevant, specific drawing of the whole period in Ukraine is that those who want to change the way, if they have a different methodology are intertwined with command and administrative not only in the economy, but also in a different way. More specifically the specifics of the period can be built up to
- Ukraine has fallen into a downturn in the number of SRPCs, is too expensive, inefficient, highly monopolized, has a non-market structure (a very high price and a large amount of economy), a part of the budget has been taken over, and the budget has been reduced
- all at once with such - inflated and economical - Ukraine has fallen into decline and the great "Inflated Navigation" has 117.0 billion krib from the wiggle. a contribution to the population in the banks, ahead of Oschadnoy, a part of the Yakut community is important, due to the wide range of goods available, and the ready-made offer at the first request for the first time;
- Ukraine didn’t break down the clear, differentiated programs of the cardinally transformative economy of these minor spheres of suspensibility, but carried out its reforms sooner with the “try and have mercy” principle, for the sake of “try” it’s very important that we potential, and the “grace” - to the neurological growth of budget vitrates for the price. So far, such a situation was economized in the economy, and it turned out to be a possible generator of inflation.
On the whole background of Ukraine, Ukraine has gained a lot of temp and triumph beyond 10 rok, so that all the signs of classic inflation, for the sake of meeting the data, see table. 5.1.
In the guidance of these tributes it can be seen, in 1992-1993 pp. Inflation in Ukraine reached the top half of the world (2100.0% and 10256.0% of the total), which is the most hostile process in Ukraine. Such a high inflation rate was not recognized by Zhodna Zraska for peaceful minds. So, at Rosії in the first place of the transition period with the most popular inflation in 1992 - 2609.0%, scho mayge is 4 times lower, lower in Ukraine in 1993 At Bіlorusі naivishcha інфляція in the whole period of the Bula in 1994 p. - 2321%, less than 4.4 times lower than in Ukraine in 1993. The middle of the far distant past
"champions" of the event get involved Argentina, Peru, Zair ta іn. Proto zhodna didn’t forgive them the "record" of Ukraine 1993 p. Argentina find the inflation is small in 1989 p. - 3389.6%, Peru in the 1990 p. - 7481.6%, Zair at 1992 - 3860%. Taku nadto temple hyperinflation in Ukraine in 1991-1993 pp. can explain the two groups of reasons:
1) the collapse of the "inflationary navies", which Ukraine gained in decline from the happy years of underestimation of the liberal price in 1991-1992 pp., Which prompted the growth of the payment for more than 2 times more. Pіd vlivom tsoy official of a rose of a price in 1991-1992 pp. grows significantly shvidsha, nizhny grows groshova masa - 1.6 і 1.9 times vіdpovіdno. In order to broaden the procurement of provocations, it’s not only direct transformation of the most important things that the platomoschosha needs, but the most important ones, the most important ones, especially since 1992, you must have bought a lot of money. zberigannya, in addition to the number for Maybut resale. For the sake of verdicting the superelate lobe of the pitoma vaga of the “flow-through Kasi” (M1) in the foreign mass of pennies in 1992 - 82%. There wasn’t a big deal in the city at the beginning of the year;
2) above the liberal monetary policy, the yak was conducted by the order and the central bank of Ukraine. To tell a story, in 1991 deficit of the sovereign budget becoming 14% of GDP, in 1992 Win of GDP and becoming 29% of GDP. Organizing monetary policies, in front of the NBU, without a special opposite, they monetized the most magnificent defect with a direct credit for budgetary consumers, the fragments of the latest news and prices were not available for anybody. Well, the fast-paced budget gates for healthier pennies at the local authorities didn’t add any political will, nor more serious threats to the Maybutny of Ukraine than the first of Ukraine. Moreover, the Uryad, the President and the Verkhovna Rada adopted a stretch of 1992-1993 pp. Dodatkovі rishhennya shіto іstotnogo pіdvishchennya price of that and the implementation of unscheduled financial vitrates, motivated by their guest economic and social need. Due to the need for pennies, the NBU was content with the NBU for the mahogany of growing emisible pennies (in the form of such a so-called credit emisi). The NBU, by the day, has repeatedly lost its status of independence, independent of the monetary policy body, and audibly pursued the policy, dictated by the proper structures overpricedly from the political city.
Another specialty of the Inflationary process in Ukraine is the reading, unequivocal reaction of the dynamics of prices to tightened monetary policies, the reorientation of prices to the anti-inflation rate of the other half of 1993 p. Already in 1994 p. the rate of inflation declining since 1993 p. 20.4 times. Better for the Chotiri Roki tempi, the growth of prices significantly increased the rate of growth of the mass of pennies (M3); It is possible to explain the reasons for saving the economy, changing the population, believing in the creators of the new monetary policy, "bringing in" their own inflation, and for this reason they made up for the pennies.
The third specialty of the inflationary process in Ukraine was the result of those who were forced to increase the number of pennies and the ones who didn’t have much more to say. They didn’t speak to them, but they didn’t lose it. Chim dali novі emіsіyіnі hvilі vіdshtovkhuvali crooked popita (div. Fig. 5.2) to the right and up, tim daliі vіlіvo and upwards About the price of redundant data on the pace of real GDP in the period of economic growth: from 1991 p. - 8.7%, in 1992 - 9.9%, in 1993 p. - 14.2%, in 1994 p. - 23.0%.
Urakhovuychi singing hour lag between the largest and the most penniless economy and the situation in real life, the most important thing is that the largest amount of GDP is lost in 1994 p. є Naslіdkom nayvishchіі інфляції in 1993 p.
I need more information on how the inflation process in 1994 p. The “break-through” boulevard is constantly changing the monetary policy and the economy in recession, because of the progressive change and the rate of decline in GDP: from 12.2% in 1995 up to 3 at 1997 p. i 0.4% for 1999 p.
The fourth peculiarity of the inflationary process in Ukraine is that we can achieve success in the instrumentation of inflation in 1996. I iveniya її on the current ryven to navigate from the position of the most developed country (10.1% in 1997, 20% in 1998 p.) did not give so long ago an outlined increase in viral performance, yakuvuzhuvala quickly (-10.0% from 1996 p .; 0% in 1997 p.). Looking at the situation, our practice clearly did not fit into the canon of the monetarist interpretation of the inflationary process, which gave some economic economies the opportunity to do so, while in Ukraine the monetarist concepts were not corrected, and the law was not monetized. The right side is not in the monetary theory of politics. The main manifestation of the shukati in the structure of the Ukrainian economy, as well as the transition to the anti-inflationary policy was lost even as much as it was in 1990-1991 pp., It was not very sensible . Tak nevidpovіdnіst mzhzh zakarіlim yakіsnim camp structure of the economy and anti-inflationary monetary policy is zoomed at the rapid pace of market reforms in Ukraine.
This particularity manifested itself already at the stage of the implementation of anti-inflationary policies and policies, in that, in the minds of the chronic deficit of the sovereign budget and the high rate of the restructuring of the budget for reimbursement of the budget. Already there are more than six organizations in power control of the anti-inflation policy, and the period of inflation only once (in 1997) went down to 10% per week, and in 2008 it was 20.0 percent more. Slide deceive respect for the two aspects of the entire apparition.
From one side, at a high temp інфляції після 1994 р. є due to the fact that the economy of Ukraine will still be overlooked due to the low cost, low efficiency and the need for true financial support from the side of the country, it’s inevitable that there will be a higher price on commodity markets. And from the side, such was the need for the economy to inflate the power from the side of the country to talk about the lack of power of the highest potential before the function of the market ambitions of self-reliance. This is explained by the significant latency of the main capital, the second by the hereditary hyperinflation and the inadequate market minds of the self-structure of virobism.
A significant part of the great and middle enterprises is still to be completely lost to the sovereign authorities and the right to direct and indirectly (financially poor) financial powers of the state. But you won’t be able to get such a try, as a rule, take advantage of the virobility. It’s not that much more beautiful is the settlement and on the privatization of the great and middle enterprises. Most of them can’t be self-reliantly professionally restructuring the virobnosti of strictly marketed vimogs and they can check the help of the other powers to whisper foreign investors. For all such anti-inflation measures, the policy doesn’t mean much, because it’s more fun to stay on a financial note. In a single state donation form, a yak would be able to touch very quickly to the minds of low inflation, small and medium-sized enterprises, organized on private and collective ambushes. Significant flashing of the whole economy has significantly expanded the bread and drink for pennies, which has allowed for a complete increase in the economy monetization, accumulation of sufficient financial resources in all regions, and for a lot of business Too bad, pislya 1993 p. Small and medium-sized business development in Ukraine in the area of blocking. As a result, Ukraine has transitioned to anti-inflationary policies and has been lingering on for a long time to stagflyatsii, as long as trivial growth is seen against the background of chronic shortening of GDP.
There is one more thing to do without delay with the specificity of the inflation in Ukraine: the development of the background of the chronic inflation crisis crisis of defaults. At the same time, state-sponsored sub-єktіv was traded up to 2000 p. rozmіru, scho перев перев є є є і об об об oath GDP. Constantly increase the non-payment of the sovereign budget to the institutions of the government of the budget sphere, bargaining in front of the budget is a payable fee. It is possible to explain the terms that the faster-monetary policy is not supervised by the realms of the realm of economy and the budgetary spheres: the lower cost of the budget and the higher cost of the budget.
Pidvodachi piddsumok, slіd mean, what to beat the inflation process in Ukraine in 90 years in the whole vidpovіda schemes, which are marked by monetarist interpretations of the day and the reasons for the inflation. At the same time, in the inflationary process in Ukraine, there are fewer and better views of the monetarist scheme, which is captivated by the transitional nature of our economy and the peculiarities of the process of the Russian transformational transformation. Tsі vіdmіnnostі can be formulated as follows:
1) the overhead of tightening the inflation process to finish the high level (about 20% for the river) without any noticeable stimulus for the economy, which is due to the fact that the formation of stagflya;
2) anti-inflation policy is allowed to subside with the bribes of the pay crisis, as it goes into the self-employed official of the run-in for the economy and the primacy of the organization of monetary policy, it is systematic to bring into play a long-term anti-competitive policy.