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Putin is preparing for a big war, increasing military spending, - Illarionov. SCHEDULE

Путин готовится к большой войне, увеличивая военные расходы, - Илларионов. ГРАФИК

Since Putin came to power until January 2014, Russian military spending averaged 2.5-3.2% of GDP per year, while maintaining a steady upward trend.

This is written in the blog of the former Putin advisor, a researcher at the Washington Institute of Cato Andrew Illarionov

"Over the first 13 years, military spending grew at constant prices 2.6 times and amounted to 12.6 trillion rubles, or 429 billion dollars (an average of about 15% of all federal budget expenditures)," writes Illarionov.

"After the Kremlin's decision to make a final decision on the attack on Ukraine (at the latest, obviously, February 9-10, 2014), military spending was more than doubled. At that time, operations were planned not only to seize and occupy the Crimea, but also to In February-April 2014, Russian military expenditures amounted to $ 31 billion, or 6.7% of GDP (27.7% of all budget expenditures).

Official military expenditures of the Russian Federation

Periods In general for the period: Monthly average:
Million rubles. Billion. The index in constant prices (2000 = 100%) The rate of change in% to the previous period In% to all expenditures of the federal budget In% of GDP
2000 191 6.8 100.0 20.1 2.60
2001 247 8.4 106.5 6.5 18.5 2.73
2002 272 8.7 102.2 -4.0 13.9 2.52
2003 356 11.6 117.0 14.4 14.9 2.68
2004 430 15.0 127.6 9.0 15.9 2.52
2005 581 20.5 152.9 19.8 16.8 2.66
2006 682 25.2 163.7 7.1 15.6 2.51
2007 832 32.8 182.5 11.5 14.3 2.46
2008 1041 41.1 199.9 9.5 13.3 2.51
2009 1188 37.7 205.5 2.8 12.0 3.02
2010 1276 42.1 206.2 0.3 11.9 2.88
2011 1516 51.2 226.4 9.8 13.0 3.18
2012 1812 59.0 258.7 14.3 13.6 3.01
January 2013 - January 2014 2172 68.4 267.5 3.4 14.8 3.18
February - April 2014 1104 31.1 564.3 110.9 27.7 6.73
May - December 2014 2148 40.8 379.4 -32.8 14.3 4.08
January - February 2015 1316 20.6 879.4 131.8 43.3 12.68

Source: Ministry of Finance of Russia.

At the end of April 2014, the military operation to seize Novorossia was canceled (postponed), the average monthly military expenditures in May-December 2014 were reduced by one third compared to the level of February-April 2014. It should be noted that not only regular military maneuvers, not only the redeployment of a significant number of troops to the Russian-Ukrainian border, but even the participation of about 10 battalion-tactical groups of regular Russian troops directly in combat operations on the territory of Ukraine (including Saur-Mohyla and Ilovais com) at that time did not demand an increase in military spending.

The situation radically changed in January-February 2015. Average monthly military expenditures in constant prices were increased by 2.3 times compared to the previous (military) period (May-December 2014), by 3.3 times - in comparison with the last prewar period (January 2013 - January 2014), 8.8 times - compared with 2000. Over the past two months, military expenditures amounted to over 1.3 trillion rubles. (more than 20 billion dollars, 43.3% of all federal budget expenditures, 12.7% of GDP), "Illarionov said.

Путин готовится к большой войне, увеличивая военные расходы, - Илларионов. ГРАФИК

"The military operations of the Russian troops at Donetsk airport and near Debaltsevo did not require such expenditure, which is indirectly evidenced by the relatively moderate level of military spending during the summer campaign of 2014. It seems that a sharp increase in military spending in January-February 2015, along with a number of other factors indicates a serious advance preparation for military operations of a much larger scale and much higher intensity than anything that we could see in the past 14 months, "concludes ex-Counselor Put on.