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Putin is preparing for a big war, increasing military spending, - Illarionov. SCHEDULE

Путин готовится к большой войне, увеличивая военные расходы, - Илларионов. ГРАФИК

From the moment Vladimir Putin came to power until January 2014, Russian military spending averaged 2.5–3.2% of GDP per year, with a steady upward trend.

This is written in a blog by a former adviser to Putin, a researcher at the Cato Institute in Washington, Andrei Illarionov.

"For the first 13 years, military spending increased at constant prices by 2.6 times and totaled 12.6 trillion rubles in total, or 429 billion dollars (on average, about 15% of all federal budget expenditures)," writes Illarionov.

"After the Kremlin’s leadership made a final decision on the attack on Ukraine (at the latest, obviously, on February 9-10, 2014), military spending was more than doubled. At that time, operations were planned not only to capture and occupy the Crimea, but also to the conquest of the so-called Novorossia. In February-April 2014, Russian military expenditures amounted to 31 billion dollars, or 6.7% of GDP (27.7% of all budget expenditures).

Official military spending of the Russian Federation

Periods In general, for the period: On average per month:
Billion rubles $ Billion Index at constant prices (2000 = 100%) The rate of change in% to the previous period In% to all federal budget expenditures % Of GDP
2000 191 6.8 100.0 20.1 2.60
2001 247 8.4 106.5 6.5 18.5 2.73
2002 272 8.7 102.2 -4.0 13.9 2.52
2003 356 11.6 117.0 14.4 14.9 2.68
2004 430 15.0 127.6 9.0 15.9 2.52
2005 581 20.5 152.9 19.8 16.8 2.66
2006 682 25.2 163.7 7.1 15.6 2.51
2007 832 32,8 182.5 11.5 14.3 2.46
2008 1041 41.1 199.9 9.5 13.3 2.51
2009 1188 37.7 205.5 2.8 12.0 3.02
2010 1276 42.1 206.2 0.3 11.9 2.88
2011 1516 51.2 226.4 9.8 13.0 3.18
2012 1812 59.0 258.7 14.3 13.6 3.01
January 2013 - January 2014 2172 68.4 267.5 3.4 14.8 3.18
February - April 2014 1104 31.1 564.3 110.9 27.7 6.73
May - December 2014 2148 40,8 379.4 -32,8 14.3 4.08
January - February 2015 1316 20.6 879.4 131,8 43.3 12.68

Source: Ministry of Finance of Russia.

At the end of April 2014, the military operation to seize Novorossia was canceled (postponed), the average monthly military expenditures in May-December 2014 were reduced by one third compared with the level of February-April 2014. It should be noted that not only regular military maneuvers, not only the redeployment of a significant number of troops to the Russian-Ukrainian border, but even the participation of about 10 battalion-tactical groups of regular Russian troops directly in military operations on the territory of Ukraine (including under Saur Mogilya and Ilovais com) at the time did not require an increase in military spending.

The situation radically changed in January-February 2015. The average monthly military expenditures at constant prices were increased by 2.3 times compared with even the previous (military) period (May-December 2014), by 3.3 times compared with last prewar period (January 2013 - January 2014), 8.8 times compared with 2000. Over the past two months, military expenditures amounted to more than 1.3 trillion rubles. (more than 20 billion dollars, 43.3% of all federal budget expenditures, 12.7% of GDP), ”Illarionov reports.

Путин готовится к большой войне, увеличивая военные расходы, - Илларионов. ГРАФИК

"Fighting Russian troops in the Donetsk airport and near Debaltseve did not require such expenses, as indirectly indicated by the relatively moderate level of military spending during the 2014 summer campaign. It seems that a sharp increase in military spending in January-February 2015, along with several other factors indicate a serious advance preparation for military actions of a much larger scale and much higher intensity than anything that we have seen in the past 14 months, "concludes ex-adviser Put. on.