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Model of economics - Vіtlіnsky V.V.

3.2.2. Model vipadkovih pod

The model of vipadkovy podii polyaga in the case of the fact of appearing chi do not appear vipadkovo podii vidpovidno to the given ymovirnostі. A model of a different group of absent-minded submissions A 1, A 2, ..., An , internationality P ( Ai ) = pi , i = 1,. = pi , de іmіvіrnіst її moglivih value

P ( yi ) = P ( Ai ) = pi .

To accept a discrete vipadka value Y of the possible value y i equivalent appearance i ai . For a practical way of realizing the way of hiding on a single vidrіzku numerical axis vіdkladayut ntervali D i = pi .

Generate evenly divided by the interval (0; 1) vipadkova value, realizatsii kotro є vipadkova number x j , and i recollect umovu:

(3.7)

At the weekend, think (3.7) you need to respect, for whom you need to take a look at Ak .

Butt. Imovnist appear podії A in dermal skin lesions R ( A ) = 0.75. It is necessary to model three vipuvannya і visnoziti sozdnіvnіst realizatsіі podії And .

Razv'yazannya. On a single vidrіzku numerical axis point E = 0.75 and even if the vipadkova number x і < E , then viprobuvannі has come podia A. In theprotile vipadka (with ) Now it’s not A ( ), tobody podia A is not small.

It is permissible, for example, to show the number of tables x1 = 0.925, x2 = 0.135, x3 = 0.088. Todi for triple voprobuvan we’ll wipe away the last realization: A , A.

Model of sums of (fallow and non-fallow) can be seen in two ways.

The first way. On the first etapy model, you can recognize the usability of your choice, appear at the top of the offer. Finding out the group of insane praises and numbing іх імовірності.

On the other hand, do it yourself, as if in a model of a new group of unsubscribing things.

Butt. Don't bother with a month of rest, there is a lot of fallow, and the bottom is A and B , with a whole house, P ( A ) = 0.7; P ( B ) = 0.5; P ( AB ) = 0.3.

Most likely, I’ll have a look at And that B in two vodopuvannyah.

Razv'yazannya. The dermal viprobuvanni can have some of the most absurd results, so far the most important thing is that:

  • C 1 = AB , P ( C 1) = P ( AB ) = 0.3.
  • C 2 = , P ( C 2) = P ( ) = P ( A ) - P ( VA ) = 0.7 - 0.3 = 0.4.
  • C 3 = , P ( C 3) = P ( ) = P ( B ) - P ( AB ) = 0.5 - 0.3 = 0.2.
  • C 4 = , P ( C 4) = 1 - [ P ( C 1) + P ( C 2) + P ( C 3)] = 1 - (0.3 + 0.4 + + 0.2) = 0.1.

I will model the group of sub-groups С 1, С 2, С 3, С 4 at two vyprobuvannyah (runs). At the same time on a single vidrіzku numerical axis (Fig. 3.1), the last vidlademno interval:

D i = P ( Сі ), i = 1, ..., 4.

Intervals

Fig. 3.1. Intervals D i = Р ( Сі )

Nekhay was cleared (taken from the table) of the number x1 = 0.68 and x2 = 0.95.

Vipadkova put the number x1 up to the interval D2, while with the first viprobovanni there is a small number of podia A , and podia B has not arrived. For another viprobovannya vipadkovo number x2 to lie down to the interval D4. Offended pod ї And that In not a little mіstsya.

Another way. Model the sum of the highest levels in the presence of a pink fact that the skin and the sum of the highest levels have appeared, and if so, you must have the most deposits, you need to re-sign them in advance.

Butt. Viktorovychuyu think the front butt, needlessly to model, I will see the appearance of A and B in one viprobuvannі.

Razv'yazannya . If it’s fallow, it’s always known that R ( B / A ) and R ( ):

For the model under the A , the vipadkov number is x1. Nehai x1 = 0.96. Oskіlki x1> P ( A ), then podia A did not come for viprobuvanni.

Now the rose is in praise, but the difference in viprobuvanni is not small. Nekhai vipadkova number x2 = 0.22. Ozhe (0.22 <2/3), tobto mamaє, scho podia B for viprobuvannya has arrived.